thalestrader

GBPJPY: No predictions, just making notes Best Wishes, Thales

A lesson I still find myself occasionally learning the hard way as well. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Doing some more Yen watching (not much time during the day to watch other markets right now). I noticed that the 6J (which trades inversely to the USDJPY for those spot traders among us) had nicked what ought to have been a bit of support earlier. After a half-hearted bounce, price has again broke below. The last push was quick, and I as I was trying to mark the chart it just moved. Short entry would have been 253-55, and a decent couple of targets look to be 226 and 190. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I see that the PM's are piling up. I will respond to all, but I will be slow getting around to them as we are dealing with a death in our family. Best Wishes, Thales

I misspoke on the buy point - it was 192, not 182, and as such the actual high of this move produced a +63 tick move. A stop below the reaction that was in the process of playing out would have been 217, or 25 ticks. I had mentioned a stop at BE to -5, and a -5 stop would have been hit to the tick if one did not raise the stop to 217. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Looking at a longer view of the GBPUSD, I still think that the next 1000+ point move will be down not up. Of course, the GBPUSD will offer a god number of long trades for the day trader during that time. But, the big money is made in the big swings. Best Wishes, Thales

Yes, it was, a very faithful one at that. Best Wishes, Thales

This is what is called "stretching the analogy" and it does not add to the meaning of the analogy. Would you believe a $90+ gain? This used to happen to me a lot, but rarely does it happen any more. But then again, I used to think a lot more like you than I do now. And I am not trying to change your mind. But your view places undue emphasis on what "they" are doing and too little emphasis on you trying to understand what is happening. Best Wishes, Thales

A final look before bedtime. Buy point was 182, and price moved about 66 ticks from that point before the current consolidation (for now it is a consolidation, though sometimes a consolidation is really a reversal). Best Wishes, Thales

MM, I hope you haven't felt that I was attacking you personally in any of my posts responding to you and your views. Certainly "short squeezes" are real. But no one is ever backed into a corner by anyone other than him or herself. In my opinion, you have personalized or individualized market behavior when market behavior is not individuals, certainly not about you or me. It is about the great mass of market participants. I did not trade today. My absence had no effect on the open,high, low, or close of any of the markets I trade. You and I and indeed every trader who posts regularly at TL could simultaneously quit the markets tomorrow and never trade again without any measurable impact upon the market's behavior tomorrow. The market is simply the herd of people. A herd will at times stand around grazing, wandering aimlessly across the plain. Then, a change is perceived, perhaps a threat, or perhaps the promise of greener pastures. At first the change is noticed by only a few at the periphery. Those few commence a movement that often simply results in a shuffling of the herd, but at other times causes a mass movement in the form of a stampede. None of the individuals is in control of the movement of the whole, but each is instead swept along with the herd. The stampede approaches an obstacle. The herd may suddenly reverse direction and continue to stampede, or they may instead simply settle down to resume teir grazing and perhaps to take a drink. This grazing drift will continue until the next change is perceived about the periphery that ultimately drives the behavior of the herd to again stampede. Most traders are members of the herd. Most are controlled by the actions of the herd and do not realize this to be so. They are confused. They do not understand what is happening, (or being humans and under control of their "egos" rather than being masters of their emotions) they demand to know why it is happening. I try not to be a member of the herd. I stand watch at the periphery, waiting for signs of those changes that cause the mass to stampede. I then position myself to ride that stampede until it reaches the next obstacle that will either halt the stampede or reverse it. At no time during the course of my ride have I been responsible for injuring any of the other members of the herd. Any injuries that have been suffered are due to their own inability to understand what is happening around them. I do not "simply choose not to call these events predatory." In my opinion, these activities simply are not predatory. I simply sit at my desk and watch for signs that the herd is getting ready to move. I move with them, but always aware that their movement is finite and subject to reversal. I am never threatened. I never threaten anyone. You liken trading to a war, and I think that that is something that sounds good on websites or in trading books or TAS&C articles or ET forum debates, but it is not a description of what trading is. Ed Seykota, in his Market Wizards interview compares the movement of markets to watching waves in the ocean. Successful trading has much more in common with the dedicatated surfer, patiently treading water while prone on his board waiting for the right wave to come and provide him a satisfying ride that any war analogy that you may devise. Best Wishes, Thales

Possible target if this rally continues No predictions ... just making notes. If I were long on that breakout, I'd be at or near breakeven on my stop loss. Best Wishes, Thales

From flasher to streaker ... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Lots of ranges and ranges within ranges. Here is a look at the Yen flashing a rally attempt. Best Wishes, Thales

It really couldn't be that easy, could it? Best Wishes, Thales

Brownie, if you feel these posts too distracting from the topic of your thread, feel free to move all the associated posts to my Reading Charts in Real Time" thread. While I agree they are not directly related to the topic of your thread, I do believe they are important enough to preserve. Your Friend, Thales Hi Kiwi, I knew Leonardo (I presume your L is the same as my L as your quote above sure sounds like him) on another, very good but very obscure forum (probably very good because very obscure) from a number of years back. He always seemed to have a very sound understanding of the individual trader's relationship tp the market as whole. And it was not an adversarial understanding, but one based upon one's ability to profit from one's own understanding of what is going on. Most traders fail in this regard. We live in an age of subjectivism, where, as Nietzsche argued, perspective is everything. What experience shows, however, is that while each is entitled to his or her perspective, there is only one which is correct. That is, relativism fails, and objectivism succeeds. One is entitled to the view that trading is an adversarial, predatory activity. But one should not expect to succeed if one organizes his or her trading activity according to such a view, as trading is neither predatory nor adversarial. Trading is about mass psychology. Trading is bout human nature. Trading success is the result of observing and understanding that nature through an examination of one's self, and then applying that knowledge to the human activity of the markets. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Here are looks at my daughter's favorite currency paor, the EURJPY. Best Wishes, Thales

We've discussed this before when you first appeared here in this thread. I do not know the where or why of how you came by your view of the "competitiveness of the intraday markets," but my opinion is that you are damaging your own prospects by using such a view to organize your trading. I have no desire to change your mind. You will no doubt continue find this thread preposterous, and you will persist in feeling that those posting their blotters here stretch credulity so long as you hold the view that you do. My own view is that I compete against no one but myself. What follows from this is that I believe that when I lose, it is not because another "predatory" trader bested me by virtue of viciousness (vice is, afterr all, no virtue). When I lose, it is for one of two reasons: 1) Price acted other than I anticipated, and I lose. No problem, losses happen, or 2) I screwed up. No problem, so long as I realize my error and I take steps not to repeat the error in the future. I also believe that I can step into any freely traded, liquid market and be consistently net profitable. I do not need to know the instrument I am trading. I've attached some charts of recent trades - each profitable (though some more than others). I re-snapped them so as to hide the instrument, the date/time, and the price scale. Each of the trades was a long trade based upon a breakout above recent resistance. There are five charts, and in no particular order represent the 10 year note, S&P emini, the Euro, Crude, and Soybeans. Each is a fifteen minute chart. I eat, sleep and dream no one market - but I am obsessed with price charts. Give me a chart, and I will trade it. And whether I win or lose has nothing to do with anyone other than myself. But I'd bet I win more often than lose, and that when I do lose, I lose much on average than my average win. Whether you believe that or not matters not to me. But you are concerned with presenting balanced views. I agree. I thought that a post balancing your view of predatory traders preying upon one another, with my view where one's success or failure is the result of the discipline and emotional control of the trader might be useful to new traders stumbling upon this discussion. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Zen, The long side has outperformed the short side for most of the last six months or so, and you are correct in that a long trade the prior day after a rapid decline resulted in a nice profit. However, the prior day did not gap open lower than the prior day's close. I do not have the chart in front of me, but if I am not mistaken, the market may have actually gapped open higher that day. The patterns were not the same, either in the maner the market opened or where I was attempting to buy. Bottom line is I just was not thinking. I somehow did not acknowledge the gap lower with the same significance I know it to have. I know that there are others here at TL who disregard gaps, or use the existence of 24 hour data to argue that gaps simply do not exist. But gaps do exist, and gaps do have significance. Yesterday I just was not thinking clearly. Thank you for your post, and please contribute your charts when you are able. Best Wishes, Thales

Nice trade, Forrest! Price did break out nicely. Looking at the GBPUSD, look how price is currently finding support at the double bottom buy point from the other day. This does not mean thaty price will not break below that point. It may or may not work its way lower. But it does show that that buy point was not just another random price level in the middle of nowhere - traders used that level as a signal that the trend was turning up. Traders who missed the first opportunity to buy there (the breakout) are now using that level as a pullback entry. Best Wishes, Thales

Post 55 of this thread shows another example of a gap down trend day. I also psoted an ES trade somehwere here (and by here I mean at TL, but not on this thread) where I followed the market down after an opening gap. I do not know in which thread I posted it, but if you can find it, that would be the example as to how to trade a day like today. Today I traded stupid. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I would advise anyone who follows this thread to use my trading of the ES today as a lesson on how not to trade. 1) I shorted the break of the low of the first 5 minutes on a gap open lower. I have discussed gap trades elsewhere. I have made more profits off of paying heed to gaps and the TVGR (Trader Vic Gap Rule). If a gap is not filled within the first 15 minutes, it will likely not be filled that day. Trade in the direction of the gap. I should have been adding to my position at breaks of support. Instead ... 2) ...As seen from the chart, the areas I identified as Support zones were accurate. The initial decline found temporary support at 1036.25, which was the lower boundary of the 36.25-39.25 support zone represented by the upper rectangle. I covered my short and reversed to a long position here. I should have held my position, and added with a sell stop at 1036. And if that wasn;t bad enough ... 3) ... Price fell to the next support level, where again, I tried to fade the trend. As you can see, this support zone contained nearly the whole of price action from 11:30 AM EDT until moments before the close. I had the relevant S/R levels clearly identified. But knowing where S/R is means little if you do not trade price action as it plays itself out. I clearly traded S/R, but I did not trade price. As Db would say, price reaching an S/R level is not in and of itself a signal to do anything. Price action was clearly pointing to lower prices. I was blindly buying when had I just opened my eyes, I'd have been selling all day long. What I did right today was I shorted the break of the first 5 minute low. I held to a logical support level, and the profit was 6.25 points/contract. When I did go long (and today it was wrong to be long) what I did right was I cut my losses. As a result, even though I only profited on 1/3 ES trades, my net for the day was still 1.75 ES points/contract traded. What I did wrong was that absolutely disregarded what I know to be as safe and sure a play as there is: A gap open that does not fill, especially one that extends immediately in the direction of the gap, tends to auger trend days, where the market opens at one end of its range and closes at the other. I do not mind losing trades. Losses happen and are part of the game. I do mind trading like the me of 10 years ago. I know better. The only explanation I can find is that I have had little sleep and much sadness over the great loss our family has suffered this past week. But that is no excuse. I'm taking tomorrow off. Best Wishes, Thales

No, not necessarily, as the market will often show its hand before the news. But on a breakout you should expect price to move swiftly in your favor. If you buy or sell a breakout and price goes no where, or simply drifts, then it might be wise to consider whether or not to keep the trade open or whether you should close it and wait for further direction from price. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Forrest, I see what you are seeing. Just be aware that any breakouts that occur between now and tomorrow's NFP data release may be shallow and may reverse at nearby S/R. Of course, there is nothing to say that any breakouts may not travel for 100's of ticks, either. But from what I have seen, the 24 hours preceding NFP and the 24 hours preceding Fed Minutes more often than not produce range contraction and coiling, and most breakouts serve only to better define a range rather than representing a break out of or tradable expansion of the current range. As always, there are always exceptions to the rules. Best Wishes, Thales

Why? Best Wishes, Thales

My approach to the ES today is terrible. I have no idea why I would try twice to trade completely opposite of the manner I know to be best for me. I am bring my stop to -.75 on the whole position. If it sinks back there then whether it rallies or not, I just want to be done with this thing today. Update: out -.75/-.75 (+6.25/+6.25/-3.5/-4.0/-.75/-.75) Total for the day +3.5 or +1.75/contract after three trades ... and to think, I had a closed profit of +12.50 or +6.25/contract a mere 40 minutes in to the day session. Best Wishes, Thales