thalestrader

Hi ehorn, Are you using volume to identify and distinguish dom from non-dom trend? From your posts of FAZ, I presume you are interpreting the dominant trend for FAZ to be toward higher prices. If so, is this a recent change from down to up according to your approach, or do you view the entire down trend from the all time high to be non-dominant? Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Kiwi, The HSI sure does look as though it would easily be traded using S/R levels. Do you do any discretionary trading at all, or are you solely focused on your automated system right now? Thank you for sharing your charts with us. Best Wishes, Thales

A buy stop at 162/3 would have been triggered, and price has gone no where. I extended the red rectangle that I had drawn last week to show how unfavorable an area for a long looks to me (you can go back and find other posts of the Yen on prior nights and you will see that zone and how it was identified). Now that price has done some chipping, a (slightly) better entry might be a buy stop at 165. But, still you have that 167 just two ticks above that level. I really like this pattern, and a break out that carries up to and through 189 should result in a 100 +/- tick run or more; but I would have to say that given where price is, I would stand aside for now and wait for the breakout, a pullback, and then buy a new post-break high. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Here is a look at the current 6J (Yen futures). Buy point would be 163, though any long taken here would be in the middle of what one might presume to be a potential zone of resistance. That doesn't necessarily mean I wouldn't take it, but I would be quick to cut it loose and then watch for a re-entry. Also, 167 may be an important tick level where resistance could be had. All in all, I like the pattern for a long, but I would much prefer it if the breakout point were about 25 ticks higher, around 187-89. That is, a better opportunity would been presented had this morning's rally pushed up to the 187-89 level, and then pulled back into this little consolidation. Best Wishes, Thales

Alternate Idea: There are a lot of hungry children out there right now. Go buy 20K worth of non-perishable food items and donate them to your local food pantry. You will lose your 20K anyway trading your proposed strategy, so why not do some good rather than simply pad the yacht fund of the CME's CEO? Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Kiwi, And you are auto-trading this system? Or does the system issue and alert, and you need manually to place your orders? Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, So with that poke below 1.4678, half of the position would be closed at +40 ticks(pips) with half remaining with a stop loss at +19. Best Wishes, Thales

If I were short I'd move my stop down to 1.4709 for +19. Best Wishes, Thales

EURUSD is moving as anticipated. Though there has been no real bounce attempt to provide a lower stop, I'd have my stop at or near break even at this point. Best Wishes, Thales

I was looking for one more week of consolidation before the Pound would resume its decline. It looks like the Pound may be ready to break to new lows (for the current downtrend off the early August highs. If the GBPUSD does break below the 1.5750 level, that should be good for about 400 ticks or so before the next consolidation. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I just logged in to the forex account and I saw the EURUSD trading up to this trendline. I am not trading it, though a short entry for me would have been a sell stop around 1.4728. Price touched the trend line around 1.4742, and many who trade using these trendlines would no doubt have sold up there. I do not take these trades often, and when I do, I tend to wait a bit for my entry. Again, I am not in the trade, but I am just showing the chart. Let's call the entry 1.4728, and the stop loss would be 1.4743 (-15) (depending upon the brokers feed), with a first profit target at 1.4678 for about a 2.5+ R/R. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Kiwi, Thank you for posting your charts. Are your exits determined by your system, or do you use your own discretion? I presume the entry is mechanical. Does the system also generate an initial stop loss and a profit target. Or is it a trailing stop, etc. In hindsight, it is easy to see where I would have bought (if only we could trade in hindsight). Your system had an earlier, and thus a more favorable entry than I would have had. I hope you continue to share your charts with us. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I am slowly chipping away at the PM's that have been piling up. I will answer everyone and every one. Some of the response may be short, but hopefull to the point. Best Wishes, Thales

Beautiful pictures paint themselves. Best Wishes, Thales

I appreciate any real time analysis demonstrating the application of your principles that you are willing to share. Thank you for this example. Best Wishes, Thales

On the other hand, if one had decided to try a small short at 252, say two contracts, then one might have been tempted to take one off at 226 or so (as 222 was anticipated support and the 6J has exhibited spreads as large as 4 ticks recently). And moving one's stop loss to breakeven would not be unreasonable, given the decline into potential support. Buy limit at 203 on remaining contract, if struck, would make for a neat little night of television. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Current look at the 6J (inverse USDJPY). Last night price fell a bit short of my anticipated target but a long trade should have ended with a profit and certainly no worse than break even. Tonight, I have no clue. Yen is at what ought to be a potential support (blue rectangle), but taken in the context of its recent range, it is, in my opinion, squarely in the middle of nowhere. The fact that it is currently below the midpoint of the 189-368 range would lead me to anticipate a decline to test the lower end of that range. So, if someone were to hold a gun to my head and force me to take a position, I would place a sell stop at 253, and probably a profit limit at 200. But, as I am thankfully free of any such threat, I'd much rather wait either for some volatility to return, or for price to get near or into the areas outlined in red. I could be induced to take a long trade depending upon how price action proceeds to develop from this point. But price needs to do some work first. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi i, No problem with the stock charts ... anyone should feel free to post trades and charts here on anything that moves, including pork bellies or Potash. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Brownie, I'll start posting my stock trades again if folks are interested. More folks seem to trade forex and futures and understandably have a greater interest in seeing those markets. This is a family week here, but when I return sometime next week I will include some of my stock charts too. Best Wishes, Thales

Before & During Best Wishes, Thales

Here is the view from the USDJPY. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, A look at the current 6J. Again, this is the Yen futures, and it trades inversely tot he USDJPY spot pair. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Just checking in real quick. I see the GBPJPY happens to be at an interesting level at this very moment. I'll be curious to see what price does between now and when I get back this evening. Best Wishes, Thales

Follow up is noted on chart. Best Wishes, Thales

On the Importance of Making Notes: The notes, taken properly will tell you what to do and where before price ever gets to wherever "where" is. Best Wishes, Thales