thalestrader

How you doing now? Best Wishes, Thales

Perhaps you ought first to consider why so many fail at something so easy. You are looking for a solution without first knowing the problem. This thought has me worried for you. It seethes danger. Banish from your thought the concept that trades must be "filtered." You will end up with the many who fail. Guaranteed. It really is that simple, though. Don't be like me and take ten years to accept this fact. Here is a suggestion (and this isn't just for you, Dinero, but anyone who wants to learn to trade price without using indicators and opinions and conjectures and unsubstantiated and unnecessary theories): Why not take a week, and watch a 15 minute chart of the EURJPY or the EURUSD or the 6J or the 6E, and just focus on what happens if you bought the break up of every low-high-higher low-higher high pivot sequence and sold short every high-low-lower high-lower low pivot sequence. Just mark off the high and low pivots, and make it mechanical if you'd like: Buy stop above a high, with an arbitrary 15 or 20 tick stop loss, and a 30 tick Profit target. Just go ahead and see how you do. Paper trade it - as I stated elsewhere, paper trading is marginally useful, and here is an example of where it can be useful. If you do this for a week, you will learn to read price action in a way that will put you solidly on track to where you want to be. One week. You should mark each high (H) and each low (L) and when the market turns, you should have an (H) pivot, followed by an (L) pivot, followed by a Lower High pivot (LH) followed by a Lower low (LL). If price makes a high and pulls back to a low and then rallies to the exact high tick of the previous high and then begins to pull back, consider that a Lower High unless it is bettered (and vice versa for two equal lows). I did it to my chart for the last couple of days so you can see what I mean (I did this quickly so if I made an error let me know and I'll correct it). This is it - this is the big secret. My currency trading friend always says "its all about highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows, and support and resistance." Try this for one week. Post your chart at the end of the day here and if you have any questions I'll help you. I'll help anyone here who will put in the effort and post his or her chart (I prefer not to do this through PM as this should be individual efforts that benefit all of us as a group). I would bet that anyone who does this for one week will, after that week, have much more confidence in his or her ability to watch price and determine whether to buy, sell, or wait. I'd bet even Gabe would be willing to shed his MA's forever. Best Wishes, Thales

I have no preferences, as a break is a break is break to me. However, there is something to be said for a strong move such as you show on the 6J up to a resistance level, followed by tight price action (perhaps for several bars). But I have learned over the years not to make moral judgments about price action. This is simple stuff - do not over think it. For example, where does the notion that that a quick move might "use up" the "momentum" necessary for the break out come from? Did I ever say that? If I did, I plead temporary something or other. I hope I never said that, or else take me out back and shoot me. Best Wishes, Thales

I really do not want to get involved in an internet skirmish. But Brian, I believe that Sevensa was perhaps taking some offense to the implication by snagbird that since I do not find paper trading to be particularly useful that I must am likely suffering from emotional problems and burn out accounts. snagbird could have posted everything in his original post, and he would have been simply stating an opinion that disagreed with mine, which is wonderful and fine and it is exactly the way the world is. However, due to some defect of character, he then went on to write "[f]unny thing from what I've seen is that those who treat sim trading as useless because it doesn't have the money behind it are the ones who have emotional problems in real trading and burn through their accounts." In the context of his post, it sure seemed to me that snagglebird was taking a shot at me. That is fine with me, I'm a big boy, and I was going to simply ignore his post. Sevensa also seemed to interpret snagbird as I did, and he chose to say something about it, as is his right. Of course we can all disagree, especially about something as trivial and unimportant as this, but there is no need for anyone here to resort to elitetrader.com crankiness and to append your opinion with an ad hominem argument (e.g. snagbird's "only emotional losers think paper trading is useless"). Funny thing, from what I have seen those who resort to ad hominem arguments to make their points are not worth paying attention to, which is why I participate here at TL and I leave ET and other forums well enough alone. Best Wishes, Thales

That level held multiple tests, and should price revisit that level in the future, whether it holds or not should provide an opportunity one way or the other. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Here's a look at the current EURJPY. 132.77 looks like it is shaping up to be an important level. Best Wishes, Thales

6E (EURUSD futures) Good Night and Best Wishes, Thales

I do not want to become an online commercial for FXCM, but neither I nor my daughter have had any problem with FXCM. Best Wishes, Thales

I know FXCM guarantees that your account cannot go into deficit. I also know that last week we had a buy stop at 134.94 that was filled to the tick a few seconds after the GDP announcement. And we have always been filled exactly on our stop losses. Neither my daughter nor I have experienced so much as 1/10th of 1 tick slippage at FXCM, ever. So, there may be an asterisk that gives FXCM an out somewhere under some conditions. On the other hand, every trade we made with Oanda had Oanda taking a few tenths if not a few whole pips more than the stop price, whether an entry or an exit. Best Wishes, Thales

And I'd have the stop at break even at this point. Best Wishes, Thales

I missed this, but I think a short at 132.42 would have been worth a try. Best Wishes, Thales

I really do not know why anyone would put up with such ridiculous spreads. FXCM micro is the way to go. We actually tried Oanda for about a week, and not only were the spreads nothing close to what they advertised, but the slippage was pure thievery. FXCM guarantees your stops. Oanda almost always took a few extra ticks on the entries and the exits. I just logged in to FXtrade and I see Oanda is fixed at 3.5 on the EURJPY right now. For what its worth, Oanda is the only broker of any sort anywhere where I I have an outstanding net loss. In one week, my daughter and I managed a combined loss of $100.39 or there abouts. In the six weeks since we returned to FXCM, we've managed to run a little less than $200 to over $2000. I know many will defend Oanda, but in my opinion, Oanda definitely has an edge against their customers, and I know when I'm licked. I went there on the suggestion of my currency trading friend, and he left soon after I did. You might recall that he averages about 200 ticks/pips per week profit, week after week. He lost 300 pips during three weeks at Oanda. He too went back to FXCM and immediately returned to profitability. For what its worth ... Best Wishes, Thales

It was probably 1.2, which is the average for FXCM. It has been as low as .6 tonight, and as wide as 2.9. Right now it is .8. Best Wishes, Thales

I'm flat at 132.54 Time to watch the Phillies! Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Hal, Great to hear from you! I hope all is well with you and your family. Basically what we'll do is this: Suppose we enter long 20K (2 mini lots or 20 micro lots or .20 standard lot) on a breakout, and the move quickly moves 20 ticks or more in our favor, and then consolidates in a small range, perhaps 2-5 ticks at the extreme of the breakout. We will put our stop loss at say +10 ticks, and we will place a buy stop to add another 20k if a new BO high is made. We then continue to add after small consolidations. With the first add, we will have our stop so that the trade does no worse than whatever the initial risk was on the first lot, but more likely we will be in a BE situation. On subsequent adds, we will be adding in such a way as to insure an overall profitable result even if we take a loss on the last entered position. Best Wishes, Thales

Lots of resistance to fight through, but if it does, the green lines are a sort of Ladder for price to climb. If price gets above one, I'd look for the rally to continue to the next higher level. Best Wishes, Thales

We have a 132.66 print, so I am going to bring the stop up to 132.54. So +23 on 1/2, and +44 worst case on second half. Best Wishes, Thales

Should have been at breakeven once the first profit target was hit (if not before). Closing in on second profit target at 132.65. Stop loss is now at 132.33, the first profit target. I do not have an order at 132.65. If price prints 132.65 or higher, I will bring the stop up to 132.50 or so, and wait to see if this doesn't break out for a run to the upside. Best Wishes, Thales

If trading reversals works for you I would encourage you to continue to develop your skills in that direction. My way is not the only way. In fact, there are a fair number of traders (a few of whom post here at TL) for whom I have great respect, and they think my way of trading is not a choiceworthy approach. The market is big enough for all of us. Also, I am not comfortable with the notion of a 'valid" break out point. Valid seems to imply profitable, while presumably invalid would be a breakout trade that resulted in a loss. Price can break from a support level, with a short entry on the break, and the trade could still result in a loss. That does not mean that the support level wasn't valid. It just means that the break resulted in confirming the importance of that price zone rather than a rejection of that level. I will try to draw what I believe to be relevant zones on my charts more often going forward. I think that might help you see what it is you are asking better than me trying to put it into words. Best Wishes, Thales

Potential lower high ...

Long entry at 132.10, take a profit at 132.33, and move stop to breakeven on the second half. Sorry for the late post. I drew in the resistance zone and forgot to take the pic. Initial stop 131.87, for 23 tick risk, so shoot for +23 tick first profit which is the inside the resistance zone. Best Wishes, Thales

Obviously the better way to have played that would have been to short 131.94 and take profit on half at 131.64 with a break even stop on the second half. Initial risk was -16 ticks, so +30 would have been a very favorable R/R for the first profit target. Of course, given the recent weakness and the gap down, I thought it worthwhile to play for a potential multi-hundred tick move to the downside. As it is, it is a breakeven effort. You have to take your swings and put your capital in play. I'm usually quite content to be a contact hitter and make base hits, but sometimes you want to swing for the fence when the pitch seems right. Best Wishes, Thales PS Go Phillies!

And here I'd go to break even on the stop, and if stopped out, I'd be willing to look for another entry. It might be a lower short entry, it might be a higher short entry, it might be a long entry. The point is to recognize when price is acting contrary to your position, at least potentially so, and take steps to protect your capital while being ready and willing to re-enter, even if it means entering at a less favorable price level compared to the initial position. Best Wishes, Thales

Not too bad, so far. Best Wishes, Thales

Was this a good short entry? We shall see, we shall see. Best Wishes, Thales