thalestrader

Hi MidK, I just wanted to refer back to the chart that Gabe fixed for me (see his attachment in post 891). The same story told on that chart can be cut and past to this chart. Your short may be profitable, but price is squarely in the middle of nowhere. Best Wishes, Thales

As these are day trades that typically last a just few minutes to a few hours, I am not so much concerned with a higher degree trend. I am concerned with were price is in relation to support and reistance levels. So while I am usually on a 15 minute timeframe or lower, for entries and exits, I will check 4 hour, daily, and weekly to see if there is any nearby S/R of which I should be aware, e.g. MidK's GBPCHF short yesterday dropped to a support level that was clearly visible if one looked back a few days, but which was not shown on MK's trading chart and thus he mistook a probe to test that support as a false breakout on his trading chart. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Midk, First, from what I have seen of what you have shared with us over the last few days, you are doing very well, and I am very slow to offer anything by way of suggestions because I do not want to derail your nascent success. As far as your NZDUSD trade, I did not see your entry as an opportunity. On the time frame you posted, I saw a lot of overlapping price movement, and nothing draws my eye to a point where I would say, "I want to get long of this market." When I say use your eyes, not your brain, I am not trying to be "clever" or funny - I am telling you exactly how I operate. I remember a line from the Ed Seykota interview in Market Wizards where he says that he can look at a chart hanging on a wall from across the room and he can tell you what your position should be. I am very much in agreement. I see opportunities, and I just do not see one where you saw one. I think you understand what I am saying. In a previous post you mentioned you are just taking the most obvious trades and you are amazed that it is working. The obvious ones are the ones you see - I know you know what I mean. Others who are not there yet will not be able fully to appreciate how visual this is. One other thought as far as trade management: I try to participate in those opportunites where a likely first profit target will be equal to or greater than my inital risk. I would not risk 77 ticks for a 17 tick target. I take 1/2 of the position off a that first profit target, and then I can either move my stop to breakeven, assuring a profit on the trade, or keep my initial stop and let the remainder run, thus assuring a breakeven or slght profit for the trade. But that is me. You need to experiment and see what works for you psychologically and emotionally. For me, I do not like to lose, but even more I do not like to get stopped out and miss a nice run. The way I manage most of my trades lets me minimize my losses while keeping me in a trade for most (though not all) of the runners. Best Wishes, Thales EDIT: Also, I almost always have a price level that is closer to my entry than my first profit target, and if that level is reached, I move to break evn.

Great Work! Just keep it simple and keep using your eyes, not your brain. I have quite a few trades under my belt, and the more I trade the luckier I get. I too am still able to be somewhat awestruck from time to time with how well this works. Best Wishes, Thales

Looks like you made your first profit target. You seem to be doing well lately. Best Wishes, Thales

EURJPY from last night, hit both targets, so we were flat for most of the run. Best Wishes, Thales

Triangles? What is this? Geometry class? I meant to post this last night but I had an emergency that I had to take care of and never got back to the computer. The notes on the chart should be clear enough EDIT: Note on chart should read price is NOW is the proverbial chop zone. . Best Wishes, Thales

Another view of the GBPUSD ... you identified a breakout, though perhaps not one of the significance for which you are looking, and if you were to look closely, the short at the degree which you are looking at would have been two bars earlier. Best Wishes, Thales

No, not really. Price is price no matter what time of the day or night. However, if you eyeball currency charts, the best moves occur around the Frankfurt and London opens, followed by the New York open, and then by the Tokyo open. Of course news releases also produce good volatility and range expansions. The Asian sessions seem to produce a disproportionate number of tight ranging periods, which of course explains the success of those breakouts that occur during the early hours of the European session (price cycles between periods of rest (range contraction) and volatility (range expansion). Europe and New York tend to be periods of volatility, while late New York and early Asia serve as periods of rest. Tha being said, if you have watched this thread for a while, you will no doubt see that Asia does offer plenty of opportunties to profit from price changes as well. Therefore the best approach is to accept that price is going to act like price, regardless of the time of the day, so trade accordingly. Best Wishes, Thaels Having thought about this a bit, I realize that I rarely am willing to enter a new currency trade after 2-2:30Pm EST, and almost never between 4PM EST and 7PM EST except on Sundays, which can be very good during Sydney and pre-Tokyo. Best Wishes, Thales

I would typically place it beneath the HL, though at times I would place it beneath the low, e.g. if news is pending I may use a wider stop. In this case I used the higher low, which would have been hit before the first profit target for a loss unless you had gone to breakeven seeing that price rallied to within 3 ticks of the profit target before reversing. Best Wishes, Thales

This trade was breakeven. We can call it a loss if anyone wishes to, as I failed to mention that the stop would move to breakeven with a print at 1.4687. And yes, eNQ, entry was 1.4670, not 1.4770. The EURUSD did offer a second opportunity that hit both of the (revised) targets, but I was involved in other things, and I missed that trade. Going forward, be aware that in addition to an entry level, stop loss, and profit target(s), I always have a level at which the stop loss will be moved to break even. This level is based upon the extent of the first leg up (for a long) or down (for a short). Best Wishes, Thales

Price is going to do what price always does. Here it is again, doing its thing on the weekly GBPJPY. Price cannot be judged to be reliable or unreliable. Price is a fact. It simply is. We can be reliable or unreliable. Our analysis can be reliable or unreliable. Our trade management can be reliable or unreliable. Price can only be itself. It is not moral. Best Wishes, Thales

Last look at the EURUSD prior to assuming internet silence. Best Wishes, Thales

I am going to be off the forum until lunchtime or so - I have some trading to do. Good luck to all. Best Wishes, Thales

Just use your eyes, not your brain. Let's worry about degrees of swing later. Focus on what your eye is drawn to as a distinct high and what it is drawn to as a distinct low. Over the course of a few days, your eye will sharpen its focus. Best Wishes, Thales

Yes, though the EURUSD looks a bit better (in terms of the swings) than the EURJPY at the moment (which can change quickly). Also, I didn't mention it in my last post updating the last EURJPY short from last night,but if you look at price action within the blue ellipse (you can see it in the chart I posted in post #855 of this thread), that area, for me, was the buy point. I missed it myself, as neither I nor my daughter were up and at it at that time. You are definitely on the right track. Just use your eyes, not your brain. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi MidK, It might help if you take a longer view of the markets you are trading. If you look at a four hour chart of the GBPCHF, you will see that what you call a "false break" based on the 15 minute view you were trading was merely a final push down to test support from 10/28/2009. So, as to how you could have traded this differently, ask yourself this: Had you been aware of that support level, would you have planned and managed your exit differently? Best Wishes, Thales

No, not really. Price is price no matter what time of the day or night. However, if you eyeball currency charts, the best moves occur around the Frankfurt and London opens, followed by the New York open, and then by the Tokyo open. Of course news releases also produce good volatility and range expansions. The Asian sessions seem to produce a disproportionate number of tight ranging periods, which of course explains the success of those breakouts that occur during the early hours of the European session (price cycles between periods of rest (range contraction) and volatility (range expansion). Europe and New York tend to be periods of volatility, while late New York and early Asia serve as periods of rest. Tha being said, if you have watched this thread for a while, you will no doubt see that Asia does offer plenty of opportunties to profit from price changes as well. Therefore the best approach is to accept that price is going to act like price, regardless of the time of the day, so trade accordingly. Best Wishes, Thaels

And when you see a H-L-LH you should be prepared for potentially lower prices ahead. Best Wishes, Thales

I used the labels in this instance for illustrative purposes only, and I would not want all that scribble on my chart, let alone have it auto-plotted. I think it might be a good tool for those who are struggling to "see" price, but once one finally trains his or her eyes to see price in terms of trend (which is all this is) one will no longer need to annotate. I think that once someone gets comfortable with watching price in terms of simple highs-lows, then some of the less obvious pieces should fall into place with practice, e.g. which S/R are significant, how to distinguish between a mere retracement and a reversal, distinguish range from trend, etc. and so on. Best Wishes, Thales

Last look at the EURJPY shows H - L - LH. Best Wishes, Thales

I think your entry was fine (I assume you entered at 1.6842 or so). I think you could have used a stop loss above 1.6857 instead of above 1.6874. Best Wishes, Thales

You set your entry, your stop, and your targets - a simple plan. You should be very pleased. As my good friend often likes to say, there are folks who trade all week long and can't manage to make a 25 pip profit for all their effort. Congratulations. What was your initial risk? Best Wishes, Thales

Price dropped to within 2 ticks of the first profit target, and reversed for a breakeven effort. It may still go to target(s) but I went to BE at 1.4776 - a simple plan. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the EURUSD - No need to filter. You take your swings. Most of the time you will reach base. Sometimes you hit a home run, maybe even a grand slam. Other times, you strike out. Best Wishes, Thales