thalestrader

What is nice here is that price indicated that it was considering a bounce, and so long as one were patient, and waited for price to confirm its intentions by printing a higher high, one would have been safely flat as price chose instead to notch a new session low. Best Wishes, Thales

I would venture that better than half of all trading losses were preceded by just those words. Best Wishes, Thales

eNQ saw the same breakdown, one swing lower: And price did all one could ask for it to do. It stood up, waved its hand, and said to anyone willing to listen that if it passed below 1.5027, it was likely heading lower. First chart is the pre-breakdown pic I posted this morning, The Second pic shows the breakdown. Price reached both targets and extended further to the downside. The third picture is my view of the 4 hour EURUSD, showing that price had rallied into a resistance zone. Please, folks, do not make this more difficult than it is. Just be patient, wait for price to work its way to a support or resistance level, watch how it behaves, and act accordingly. Best Wishes, Thales

I have to run. Here's a current look at the EURUSD. I don't have time to post the EURJPY, but you can se something similar there as well. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, It looks like you all put in another good night. I am not sure how the winners and losers shok out, but MidK looks at the moment to be sitting on a decent profit with a stop asuring a no worse than break even effort. Gabe managed a profit 2x';s as large as his loss. Keep it simple and keep it up. We need patience both to learn to recognize what price is telling us and also we need patience to wait for price to tell us what it is going to do. Thank you all for participating - remember, posting your pre-trade analysis not only helps yourself but it help others as well. I do believe that good comes to those who do good. Best Wishes, Thales

That is key for everyone of us. Price will point the way, but we have to be willing to follow. Best Wishes, Thales

The Yen pairs (EURJ, GBPJ, USDJ) tend to be the best movers during Tokyo morning session. But when the EURUSD and GBPUSD do get a mind to move during Tolyo's am, it is often an extended move. Best Wishes, Thales

Over the summer she would be watching during the first half of the NY session, and during the early Tokyo session in the evening. She watched the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and the three major Yen crosses (EURJ, GBPJ, USDJ). At this time, unless she is off from school or it is one of her early dismissal days, she only watches early Tokyo. Best Wishes, Thales She traded the EURJPY more than anything else.

Very nice, MidK. That was very reasonable analysis, with a well structured traidng plan. Congratulations! Best Wishes, Thales

Support indeed! Best Wishes, Thales

I would gues your second PT is aorund 149.50, and it looks like 149.67 149.76 is a support zone. Best Wishes, Thales

Wait for it (for just a little bit, ok) ...

And what was your second profit target? Because I bet it breaks 149.76 and tags you second profit target as well. Best Wishes, Thales

What happened? I thought you called that very well. What was your entry? What was your first profit target? Look at the chart ... at the very least it should re-test that 149.83 low. Best Wishes, Thales

Excellent, Dinero! I too use a one minute similarly to the manner in which you used it. If you mind your stops and your risk level, it might pay to take half off at the smaler target and let the rest run for the larger target. Best Wishes, Thales

That's fine, let's call it context rather than filter. In my experience, a search for "filters" invariably seems to lead many to use indicators. You and I discussed in private a certain well-known system, and you told me that you rejected it because "you can do it simpler without all the darned indicators." I agree. I would like, as far as it is possible, to prevent such proliferation of indicators here. Context refers to price and how it is behaving. I think daedalus's post (and yours as well) was a good one. Filters often lead to something derived from price. As these patterns we are discussing repeat, then presumably they repeat contextually as well. Best Wishes, Thales

The concept I illustrated is the concept daedalus proposed. If you understand what I wrote, then you understand daedalus's post. We each have our brains wired somewhat differently, and so for some folks, an explanation in one form may seem confusing or contradictory, while the same explanation is perfectly clear to another group of folks. The same concept explained in somewhat different form may baffle the first group, but be perfectly clear to the second group. That is ok. That's the way we humans are. Don't sweat the small stuff, Gabe. You've come too far to derail yourself over this. I'm pulling for you. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Gabe, Think of it this way: For a short, price preferably will print a high at a resistance level, decline into a low, rally to a lower high, and thus the entry will be a break of that decline;s low. Ideally, trhat low is not sitting right on prior support.. For a long, price preferably will print a low at support, and then rally into a high, pullback to a higher low, and thus the entry will be a break of the rally high. Ideally that high is not right up against with prior resistance. Best Wishes, Thales

From your list (and its a good list, by the way), you are attempting to define the conditions under which price may be presumed to be indicating its immediate future direction. That is what you are supposed to do. Do not confuse this with filtering trades, as this is not filtering but rather it is simply the act of determining whether price is presenting an opportunity for profit or not. The chop zone is not a filter. The chop zone is created when price moves between a series of of HL's and LH's. Price most clearly indicates where it is going when it etches out a series of HL's and HH"s or LL's and LH's. In other words, the chop zone is simply a period of time and price action during which price is not clearly indicating in which direction its next tradable move is likely to be. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Blowfish, I've read his Law of Charts, Trading the Ross Hook, and Trading by the Book. I would be more likely to recommend him if he didn't charge $150/title. I do not begrudge an author payment for his work, but $150 a pop? I haven't read Joe Ross's Law of Charts in years, but it may be useful to those who are learning to apply the approach we are working on here. However, I do not want to turn this into a discussion of Ross Hooks and such. I'd like to keep the focus on S/R, Highs and Lows, and risk management. Funny thing about the seeming direction this thread has taken lately. I have not done anything differently than I've been doing here since I started this thread, and suddenly folks seem to be understanding what it is I have been trying share. I remember someone asking me one time to post the entries that my daughter was taking over the summer, and in response I posted a chart and I said something to the effect that "this is all she does. Every day there are 1-3 trades that look just like this." I am sure that all that chart showed was a H at resistance, a L, followed by a LH and then a break lower. But for some reason, it seems as though many folks looked at those charts but somehow failed to see them. I post a chart with all the L's and H's etc., and it seems as though there was this mass "Eureka!" moment. Well, I have to give credit where credit is due. A few weeks ago, my nine year old daughter was showing my seven year old daughter a printed chart of the EURUSD, and she was showing her what she does, and labeling the chart with an orange marker in just the way I labeled that EURJPY chart last week. So, again, I am not a very original trader. Even my nine year old is better than I at conveying how to do what it is we do. In my defense, however, she may have come up with the idea to label the H's/L's, but at some point I must hav stumbled upon the words that enabled her to understand me. Unless she just got it intuitively and I was really nothing more than office furniture. At any rate, I am really enjoying this thread. Best Wishes, Thales

I am heading out for the day. Here is a look at the current GBPUSD, and I am just wondering if there is much more downside in the tank. Best Wishes, Thales

That is fantastic, Gabe! Congratulations! You folks all put in a good night, the profits were large relative to the risk (and in Gabe's case, the profits were large. Period.) Forrest also saw nice profits relative to his risk. The losses were kept small. This is exactly the outcome for which we all should be aiming. Gabe and Forrest have been diligently applying themselves for a few months here, and it is staring to come together for both of them. Diligence, hard work & study, and patience will be rewarded. Great work and great contributions by everyone. Thank you all. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, The above GBPUSD short was a break even effort. An hour or so after hitting the breakeven stop, the GBPUSD offered another short entry at 1.6733, with a 1.6764 stop loss, which quickly moved to revised targets at 1.6673 ticks for +50 and 1.6620 for +113 ticks. Best Wishes, Thales

A man of few (if any) words ... But the chart says it all. Thanks, Forrest. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, We were waiting for a 1.6735 print to go to break even on the stop, but enough is enough as this a slow mover, and the stop is now break even. Limit orders are in for profit targets, and it is bed time here. Good night, folks. Best Wishes, Thales