thalestrader

Would 132.96 be close enough to count? What did MidK do, take the day off? Best Wishes, Thales

Just like this ... Best Wishes, Thales

Targets are falling like dominos. Let's look for 132.94 and then 132.43-50 Best Wishes, Thales

Where's MidK? Looks like they're running tonight.

I put up one more target. If it trades through there without reversing, then this might be the start of something big. Best Wishes, Thales

Here are the current spreads at FXCM on the four pairs that my daughter and i typically trade. As you can see, what you see is pretty much what you get. Best Wishes, Thales

Range contraction followed is followed by range expansion. The last few weeks have been coiling up tight. Whichever way this thing starts to trend, it could be a big move. The key for me is to be patient and wait for price to inidcate it is ready to trend. Best Wishes, Thales

You know you picked your PT's well when price trades through them (assuring a fill) and then reacts against them, at least temporarily. Both TP's hit, but there may be more gas in the short side tank. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Gabe, Since the spread on the pairs we've been trading have averaged about 1.2 pips, what you see in my posts are pretty much what we get. However, I have noticed lately that FXCM has introduced a .1-.2 slippage on some stop orders. The charts you see are using the Gain feed through Ninja trader, and usually a break there by one tick will is sufficient to work the trade. When I used some demo platforms from Oanda, forex.com, and GFT, I found that usually 2x'sthe spread was necessary to keep from getting stopped in to the trade without the trade actually triggering. Honestly, If FXCM ever stops offering the the small spreads on the micro account, I think we'd be done with spot and just trade the CME futures. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I saw this opportunity on the EURJPY unfolding, but I didn't trade it, and I didn't take a screen shot 'til now. My daughter is usually with me for the early Tokyo session, but she was feeling tired and has turned in already, and I guess I'm feeling a bit lazy. Anyhow, this is after the fact, but it sure was a nice little trade, offering a +27 PT1 for a -12 initial risk. As you can see it declined into the first PT. I see now that it is taking quite a bounce form that level. I do not know if it will continue higher to what would be a BE stop, or if it will resume the decline and hit PT2. Because I don't know, I take profits and protect capital. Best Wishes, Thales

This is not a forex thread, though it certainly seems that way much of the time. If you can trade it and it is liquid, feel free to post it. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Don, Nice trading today ... Congratulations! When you say you are "following the fractals up," you should show us on your charts that to which you are referring. No secret handshakes allowed in this thread. We all share, and we share all. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I'm heading out again for most of the day. Here is a look at the current EURUSD. If I were trading this, and the short entry triggered, my stop would go to BE with a print at the dotted Magenta line. Best Wishes, Thales

Nice trade, Midk. Last night (your morning) I thought the EURUSD looked like it might break up. But I otherwise felt so out of sorts with what the markets were doing, I doubted I was seeing it correctly. Well done! As an aside, I do let me nine year old daughter read these posts, so maybe we could avoid certain types of language in our posts, etc. Congratulations on that EURUSD trade! Best Wishes, Thales

Of course what you call "big picture" S/R is important, and we do keep prior important highs and lows in mind. However, price is going to make all kinds of swings as it works its way to and fro' those levels. Furthermore, we are day trading. Price will not move in a straight line, and we are trying to trade the next decent swing as price makes its way to test more important levels. For the most part, we are looking for trades, given the current environment, that will let us get 20-50 ticks at a first PT, while keeping our loss, should we be wrong, to less than 10 ticks on average. Again, if volatility picks up, these numbers will expand. If volatility contacts further, these numbers will likewise adjust downward. I remember a few years ago there was a period of time when the 6E was putting an a average daily range of just over 60 ticks Reading over some of your recent posts, it would seem to me that you are trading as a day trader, but expecting the moves of a somewhat longer term swing trader. You need to adjust your expectations both to your approach and to what the market is willing and able to give you. From September 2008 to about July 2009, there were many multi-hundred tick move days put in by the majors and the Yen pairs. It even took me a while to reign in my expectations in terms of tick moves as volatilty as drawn back down. I had become accustomed to 50-100 tick PT1's and 100-150 tick PT2's. Those opportunities are just not presenting themselves several times a day like they were months ago. I am no fan of Don Rumsfeld, but I am reminded of something he said years ago, and adjusted to our situation, it would sound like this: "You need to trade the market you got, not the one you want." Best Wishes, Thales

USDCAD had a promising start, but the rally fizzled quickly, and managed acoring to what I have been showing here, this would have been a loss of -8 ticks. Had price traded at least as high as 1.0542 from teh 1.0527 entry, I would have comfortable exiting at a breakeven stop. As it were, price made it to 1.0536 and rolled over. Best Wishes, Thales

Are you sure it wasn't my fault? Best Wishes, Thales

She's in bed now, but I think she'll like your new one. I hope you keep sharing with us. Best Wishes, Thales

Well, what do you know ... USDCAD looks like the real deal. Best Wishes, Thales

Here is the current GBPUSD, just poking up for a possible long. Maybe its me, but just about anything feels forced tonight. Maybe once Frankfurt and London wakes up so will the markets. Best Wishes, Thales

Two things, Don4 ... 1) Here is my look at the current EURUSD. I have this showing a possible short, but this could easily switch to a long. In the end, nothing seems to be swinging tonight, and I'm happy just to go to bed early and see what tomorrow brings. And, 2) My daughter finds your avatar creepy, and I have to say, so do I. Nothing personal, but for now I will be putting you on ignore. You are free to post here, of course, and you are free to keep your avatar. If you change the avatar, I'll take you off ignore. But my daughter is here with me a good bit, so I have to do what I have to do. Thank you for sharing with us. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Forrest, How are you trading based on this? Best Wishes, Thales

Looking at the EURJPY here, I'd be more inclined to short. I would be waiting for a break higher before going long. I remember a post DB made about a "Ross Hook" thread where everyone was seeing these hooks everywhere, even in the middle of nowhere. To tell you the truth, I don't really see anything here that gets me looking to enter one way or the other. I'd be waiting for something more clear. Best Wishes, Thales

The market always seems to know when its time for your next big serving of humble pie. Is peewee <50%? Best Wishes, Thales

EURUSD looks like it may have hit your first PT. Here is my view of the USDCAD - very similar to your view. I do not usually trade the 6C during Asia. This does look like a decent opportunity, however. I'm eyeballing it with a 12 tick initial stop, which is small time risk. If it triggers and if it then reaches PT, I might be tempted to take 1/2 off there and let the other half ride with the initial stop. Best Wishes, Thales