thalestrader

Here we go ... Funny thing too ... after having praised FXCM micro for the small spreads and the lack of slippage, I am getting creamed on my stops (both entries and exits) today. I could see if we were putting on $1,000,000 positions, but we are trading two mini lot equivalents. If this keeps up, we'll be posting trades basis futures only. Looks like FXCM may have taken a page out of Oanda's book. A small spread looks good, but it doesn't mean anything if you are going to get clipped for 3-5 ticks extra in and out. Best Wishes, Thales

Wait for it ... wait for it ...

TL - It is the place to be!

Hi Cory, Welcome aboard! You bought support, which is what you want to do. Buy support and breaks of resistance, sell resistance and breaks of support. It looks as though price hit and filled you PT, so that would indicate that you likely did something right and that you didn't just get lucky. Lastly, if you do something and it works, and if you keep doing it and over time you have a net profitable result, then do not let anything I or anyone else says to you cause you to rethink o stop what you are doing. As the saying goes, if it ain't broker, don't fix it. To which I would add, if you're going broke, stop! It looks like you did a fine job. I hope you keep sharing with us. By the way, I like watching the 13R on the futures as well. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Current look on the EURUSD, with PTs at +35 and +85. Best Wishes, Thales

It gave me every opportunity to take it off at BE or even a +2 or so, but against what proved to be better judgment, I let it clip me for -9. However, initial disaster stop choices were -27 or -38. -9 is much easier to make up than a loss 3 to 4 times as large, wouldn't you say? Best Wishes, Thales

EUR is a bit indecisive as to what kind of day it is going to have. It is waffling against the USD but, checking back in to our potenital ending diagonal, it is trying to gain strength against the JPY. It is likely not going to make up its mind until US equity markets open and give the marching orders for the day. Best Wishes, Thales

94 is the level at which I'd go to BE on my stop. It printed 93, so my finger is on the close position button with a hard stop still at 72. Best Wishes, Thales

Long at 81, rip cord level will be a 72 print (possibly higher if this thing double tops). At any rate, a -9 or so should be about the worst case. Best Wishes, Thales

I've been wanting to say this for a while and for whatever reason I haven't gotten around to it. John is absolutely 100% correct. Bars are irrelevant. A bar is just an arbitrarily selected way to "bundle" price movement. Some here have noted that I sometimes come in "tight," i.e. use few bars to identify an opportunity. Gabe said the other day that he thought you needed at least a certain number of bars before an opportunity presents itself. Watch price move. Trade. Repeat. Look at the chart of the EURJPY in my reply to Blowfish in post #1462. Look at what I say about the bar I label with a "4". What matters is not how many bars price took to get somewhere, what matters is how has price moved. Period. Some have said I seem to have a secret and unknowable way of managing my trades and cutting my losses. I assure you I do not. It is the same thing over and over. I have a good trading friend who always says "Dance with the one that brung ya, and leave with her too.'" What he means is that if you are going to get into a trade because price does xyz, then if it does the same thing but in the opposite direction, get out! If a H-L-LH gets you short, then if price declines and prints a L-H-HL, well, it is time to pull the rip cord, and possibly time to reverse entirely. One of the reasons I do not like mentioning Ross Hook's and Trader Vic 123's is that both understandings tend to place the trader's focus on bars, rather than price levels. John says you can trade this with a line chart. I'll go one farther - when I am trading currency futures, and I am not distracted by other tasks (such as posting on TL) I am watching the DOM only. The chart is always there if I need to check to see if I missed anything, but other wise I just watch where price goes, stops, reverses, etc. In other words, not only do you not need bars to trade this way, you do not need a chart. You just need to see where price is and where it has been in some form or the other. Excellent post John. If the post of the month were still in effect, I'd nominate your post. Anyone struggling with what we are doing here would be well served to print your post and put it in his or her journal. Best Wishes, Thales

If it goes long I'd be looking for +25 and +65 ... if it goes and goes nowhere, I pull the rip cord quickly. If it goes short, I'd be looking at +30 and +70 ... rip cord clause applies. Best Wishes, Thales

... and a closer look. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Current EURUSD. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Current look at the EURJPY - could be an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals do not indicate anything other than that the trend of which it is a part is momentarily losing momentum, and may be coming to an end. In my experience, when an ending diagonal results in a continuation of the trend rather than an end, the move is usually large and subject to continues trending. I do not typically trade the pattern's trendline breaks. I wait for the breaks and then look for my entry. Best Wishes, Thales

How soon we forget ... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Blowfish, I have placed notes on my chart that I hope answer your questions. Best Wishes, Thales

This really is my last one, but I think this is an important lesson. Others may not agree with this type of cut and re-enter, but it has saved me many an anguished moment over the years. Yes, it means that had it reversed and hit PT1 I would have made 6 fewer ticks (-4 on the loss and -2 on a less favorable re-entry. But folks, if you trade this approach and price stalls like this, it is not doing what the approach anticipated. Don't hope. Get out, and wait for the next opportunity. If you do get out and you do not enter a rentry orer, price then goes in the anticipated direction, don't be angry. It's just a coincidence at that point. Wait for the next opportunity. If you look at this EURUSD trade, it sat there for 8 minutes before breaking down. If you trade this approach, price should not be sitting at entry after 8 minutes. Best Wishes, and Good Night, Thales

Remember this one? "I'd rather be out wishing I was in than in wishing I was out"

Last thought and then I'm going to bed: Think about the above, and then consider this: Which is easier for you to make up, a -4 tick loss or a -15 tick loss? Best Wishes, Thales

Get a demo account, and from now on, every time you fade a trend on a trend day, take a trade with the trend in your demo account. I'll bet that 9/10 times, at the end of the day, you'd gladly trade your real PnL for the demo PnL. The easiest money you will ever make will be resisting the urge to fade the strong move and instead jsut keep buying new highs and selling new lows. If you insist on fading, then at least wait for price to indicate that it might be ready to react against the trend, at least temporarily. Best Wishes, Thales

I am not trading this, and I will soon be turning in for the night, but here is a case were price would have nicked me into the trade and immediately rewarded me with a resounding stall. This is a case where I'd bring my stop up to -2,-3,-4 ticks or so. If stopped out, I would re-enter a tick above the new high. I have mentioned Mike Reed in other threads here at TL. One thing I learned from Mike is that every trade starts as a scalp. You can always re-enter if price confirms the trades direction. But honestly, every time I enter, I expect price to move quickly and decisively in my favor. Failure to do so often spells trouble. Entry was a buy stop at 1.4930, with a 1.4915 stop loss. Why sit there and hold for a possible -15 tick loss? Cut it at -4, and and set a buy stop for at 1.4932 to get back in. Be ruthless in the protection of yourself. Best Wishes, Thales

If I'm flat and I think the move is going to continue I sell lower lows and I buy higher highs. We've been focusing on the H-L-LH and L-H-HL for much of the last two weeks, and that is indeed a very important compnent of my approach, but I have posted plenty of examples of me buying break ups to new rally highs and break downs to new rally lows. Best Wishes, Thales

I can also see this side of it too. Best Wishes, Thales

Once I suspect that there may a large move getting underway, I will often lift my PT2 and trail a stop to catch more of that move. Best Wishes, Thales

Rule of the thread - if you are going to post charts and trades, you must be willing to share how you came to make your decision to take and manage the trade - no secrets, no magic, just the facts. Don4 doesn't strike me as someone who is out to sell anything, and so I would assume he would welcome the opportunity to share his approach with us. Best Wishes, Thales