thalestrader

Hi Folks, Hundreds of ticks available if I'm right about this short opportunity on the GU. Best Wishes, Thales

No problem. I'll take them one at a time as I have time. First, a couple of general remarks. I would suggest that anyone trying to learn to trade this approach pick one market and study that market. If you are going to use spot forex, I would pick either the EU, GU, EJ, or UJ. The GJ would not be among those I'd suggest to start exploring this approach. For currency futures, I suggest the 6B, 6E, 6J. I also see you have a USDCAD trade. I would only use this approach ona 15 minute USDCAD or 6C if I were looking for a favorable entry based on a larger opportuntiy presenting itself on the 4 hour or higher time frame. My daughter really came into her own when she basically fixed herself on the EJ. First, your GJ short from the Sunday open. I have a couple of questions on the chart for you. Basically, I see two long entries. If you recall, we had gotten long of the EJ on Sunday. I see what you did, but I do not see it as an obvious short opportuntiy. Look at the questions on the chart and let me know what you think. Best Wishes, Thales

My hard stops are nothing mysterious. The initial stop that is attached to my entry order is one tick above/below the last reaction prior to my entry trigger. I always have at least one profit target, usually two, sometimes three. I will set my OCO limit order or bracket order for my second profit target. Once my entry is triggerd, I manually enter my firt profit target imit order. Before the trade is triggered, I have a level at which if price moves that far in my favor, I will move my stop to break even. An old one eyed trader from Texas I know used to call it "the trend killer level." It is a level at which there is potential support/resistance to kill the move in your favor. (Take a look at the attached chart. The dotted Magenta line is my "trend killer level" where if price touches it, I want to protect myself form outright reversal against me with a break even stop. I extended the line so you can see from where it came). Some trades, there is nothing between my entry and my first profit target. In that case, there is no trend killer level, and I will simply watch price as it makes its way toward my first profit target. I will move to break even once price moves 10-20 ticks in my favor. Each trade is different, and it depends upon how price is moving. Once my first profit target is filled, I will definitely have a break even stop on the remaining position, and I will typically start to trail it with a 5 tick move for every additional 5 ticks in my favor. This works for me. You have to find what works for you. All I know is that I hold it as no badge of honor to hold a 10 or 20 tick profit into a loss. I see folks all over the place trying to squeak 2-4 ticks/trade out of the ES. Why should I feel bad to take 10 ticks of a one time 20 tick profit on the 6E? Why would I want to allow an open trade equity of 20+ ticks roll back to a -10 tick loss? For what? I know when I am playing for 100 ticks. I know when I am playing for 20 ticks. I am not going to get upset if I take 10 ticks of a 20 tick move that the runs for 100+ ticks without me. I am not going to get upset if I am playing for 100 ticks, and I get stopped out with +30 if price is going to go all the way back to -20 before rolling for +100. You have to take what the market gives you, and get out with what you can. Best Wishes, Thales

I'd be out at break even, and waiting for the next opportunity. Best Wishes, Thales

Of course I saw that post, I only said that I did not see your post until after the fact. You posted the chart with your trade intentions at 6:29 PM my time, and if you look at my first post after that, I did not get back here until 8:17 PM, almost two hours after your post, and an 62 minutes after you had already posted the trade was triggered and stopped for a loss. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi MidK, No hurry here, as tomorrow is Thanksgiving and I will likely not have much time between then and Saturday. It is up to you. I'm willing to try and help you. But I would need to see the trades if I am to be of any help. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi MidK, The more I think about this the more perplexed I am. If you are still with us, would you consider posting the charts of your seven trades so that we might be able to better determine where the problem is? I was thinking that perhaps you are not playing when the market is swinging. For example, here is the current EU. It looks like a proper opportunity, and yet I do ot know if I'd want to trade it, as there is no volatility in the market right now. Best Wishes, Thales

This thread is obviously an attempt to drive traffic to whatever service(s) this Nial Fuller is offering. Funny Observations on Price Action Funny thing about inside bars: Change the time frame and they disappear. Funny thing about pin bars: Change the time frame and they disappear. Funny thing about price: Change the time frame, and it is still there. Change to a tick chart, still there. Change to a range chart, price is still there. Point and figure? you guessed it, still there. Funny thing about vendors: Put them on ignore, and they disappear, only to reappear. Buyer beware is all I have to say. Best Wishes, Thales

Sure doesn't look like a market that is in any hurry to go down. Best Wishes, Thales

Anyone care to fade that EU rally with less than an hour to go in the US equity session the day before a US bank Holiday? Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Jon, Well that is one fast and thin chart, but yes, that is what we are doing. The question for you is how do you manage the trade? Are you using profit targets? Trailing stop? Best Wishes, Thales

All the stops I show are hard stops entered on my trading platform and sitting with the broker for spot and on Globex for futures. Where you point to a manual exit I have a hard stop. A manual exit is made before price come back to a hard stop, and I exit in such a way only when price has given me an indication that it is reversing down and likely to take me out at my hard stop anyway. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Gabe, After you posted the possible short, I checked the AU and I marked off a possible long as well. As the AU in all time frames is bullish, with successively higher and higher break ups, a long would be the easiet play today. Here is the chart, then and now. Best Wishes, Thales

EU did challenge and break the early morning high, and had this long trade employed the third PT, it would have been filled or nearly so depending upon your broker and spread. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Don, Look at this chart of the EU. I am not in this long trade, but if I were, the red lines indicate where my actual stop would have started and how I would have trailed it. These would be real hard stops resting with my broker, or, if this were the 6E, sitting out on Globex. If I choose to get out manually prior to my stop getting hit, it will be because I see price trade in a way that indicates that it is geting set to move against my position. I do not have a large stop like you seem to use, many many ticks away from the market. I do not need to have such a stop. If I am right, price doesn't come back to my stop, if I am wrong, I want to be stopped out. Best Wishes, Thales

Sure, I can do that, but my stops are where I say they are, and if I get out early, it is because of something I see. Forexample, when I set an order to buy1.6509, and I say I have a -25 stop loss, and a PT at +100, I assure you that I have a buy stop sett to trigger at 1.6509, with an OCO sell stop at 1.6584 and a sell limit at 1.6709. When I say I am going to break even with my stop, that means I am going to my entry price on my stop. My stops are usually very easy to see. Best Wishes, Thales

I always have a stop in the market. I will at times exit manually before my stop is hit depending upon how price is acting. But I do not want to be in the middle of a power failure or a news spike and not have an ejector seat locked and loaded. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi folks, A few housekeeping issues for the thread. 1) It is quite cumbersome for me always to write out the whole pair symbol, eg EURUSD, especially when I am trying to do these posts quickly, in real time, while trading several accounts. Therefore, from now on I am going to adopt here a convention that several of my trading friends and I use when communicating with one another: I will use the first initial of each currency only when referring to a pair, with the exception of the Swiss pairs. For example, the EURUSD will be referred to as the EU, and so on ... EU = EURUSD GU = GBPUSD EJ = EURJPY UJ = USDJPY UC = USDCAD UCf = USDCHF and so on and so forth. 2) Just to reiterate, when sharing a chart with a trade opportunity, we should all try to use a blue line for entry, a red line for initial stop loss, green line(s) for profit targets. When I remember, I use a dotted magenta line to indicate the pont at which my stop loss will be moved to breakeven. 3) Lastly, it is ok to disagree with me and with each other. But when doing so, let's be sure to keep our responses polite and respectful. Best Wishes, Thales

Here are two ooks at the EU the first showing the proximity of Z's short entry to the rally's prior high (resistance now support). The second shows the point at which price indicated that it was not likely to go lower and indeed and instead would challenge the rally's current high. So, did Z sell a false breakout? Best Wishes, Thales

If you look at my EURUSD short from earlier, you will see that you were shorting at a level close by what would have been my first PT (first support). Remember that most of these trades will not reach the second PT, and your PT1 is down on the way to what would have been my second PT. This is a tough place to have gone short. I hope it works for you, but a quick look makes me think it might be better to be getting yourself long. So, what did you do? Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I'll be in the kitchen for much of the rest of today playing prep cook and dishwasher, i.e. peeling and cutting and washing stuff for my wife. Happy Thanksgiving to all, and God Bless. Best Wishes, Thales

Price came within 4 ticks of PT1, and I decided to pull the plug at a +4 ticks with news pending. Price was so close to the break even stop that we would have been plucked out when my broker widens the spread just before the news. Here is a current look at what could develop into a long trade on the EURUSD. We're not trading this one. Best Wishes, Thales

EURUSD touched my break even SLmove, and now its taking a bit of a bounce. A break even trade is ok with me. Best Wishes, Thales

Sounds as though you should stop trading this approach and try to identify why you are having these difficulties. Seven losses in a row is a tough stretch. I didn't see your EURUSD post until after the fact. For what its worth, except for Sundays, it is probably best not to place orders between the NY close and the Tokyo open. In the end, you will never know which trades will be your winners and which your losers, but if you hit seven in a row where price doesn't even move far enough in your favor to get to breakeven, then it would seem that something is wrong, and it is best to stop the bleeding and figure out where the problem is. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it," has as its corollary "if it is obviously smashed, fix or replace." Here is my current EURUSD short. I'm trading this very very small, and this is it for me until next Tuesday. I hope to see you back here, MidK. Though your frustration is evident, and I understand that you may already have moved on. In either case, I wish you well and much success. Best Wishes, Thales

I have been trying to draw folks attention to the three bar pattern you are observing. It very often marks the low/high of a swing of some degree. I would caution against thinking that this is an approach whereby people should start "counting bars." The notion of "degree of swing" is important to this approach (I would imagine that it is important to any approach that is based upon price and what it is doing). For example, the anyone familiar with the approach discussed in the price/volume thread knows the terms "tapes, laterals, and traverses." For me, each of these simply denotes a swing of some degree. The best current example can be found on the AUDUSD. I did not trade this, but I am "cherry picking" the example because it is happening now. In fact, a new entry has just triggered this morning. I have attached four charts, showing four possible long entries with profit targets using this approach. As you will see, number of bars is irrelevant. What is relevant is the following: 1) In each case, the swings of similar degree are distinct and obvious. If you have to squint to see the opportunity, open your eyes and move on as there is nothing there. 2) There is no question that price has, in each case, etched out a Low, followed by a rally high, followed by a pullback that holds above the prior low (i.e. a higher low), followed by a break up of the rally high. So, Brownie, your observation is correct, and it points to an important and valuable piece of this approach. This is a very common pattern (I have also attached two more in one chart from this morning on the EURJPY). I have pointed it out at least five times during the last week or so, and I assure you I did not point out each and every occurrence. Keep in mind that this pattern is occurring at a very small degree of trend. It may be counter to higher degree trends. It may mark important long-term tops and bottoms, but you will only know that in hindsight. Keep in mind too that this approach works at all degrees of swing or degrees of trend. This will become apparent as one commences the practice of annotating one chart of one market for one week. If you do not get it after one week, try it for one more. If you do not get it after two weeks of diligently applying yourself to identifying the Highs and Lows and the swings points and the breaks, then I suspect that this may not be for you. This should not take long. Of course, if you try to short cut it, you may never get it, even though it may very well be a good fit for you. But if you try to short cut it, you will likely just short circuit it, and you will never know what couldashouldawoulda been. This approach is about looking for Highs and Lows, Higher Highs and Higher Lows, Lower Lows and Lower Highs to find your entries, and to use S/R for your stops and your profit targets. So, for anyone trying to learn this approach, the place to start is by looking for highs and lows. If you do not learn to see, you will fail. I guarantee it. Best Wishes, Thales