thalestrader

I didn't get the sense that anyone was relishing in your pain or the pain of anyone else, for that matter. This has struck me as rather positive and supportive bunck of folks, as a matter of fact. What happened here that made you feel as you do? Best Wishes, Thales

If we can't hear you, we can't help you. Best Wishes, Thales

We have a 10 tick stop defaulted on the double click entry orders. So, on the initial entry, and each subsequent entry (all market orders), there was an initial ten tick stop. After that, I think you can follow the posts to see where the stop was trailed. Best Wishes, Thales

Just to be clear, I am not going to post a flawed opportunity in order to post a losing trade. Losing trades are inevitable. I have posted losing efforts here in this thread, and I will continue to do so. Today I posted two opportunities. I thought the GU was a good long opportunity (if triggered), and I thought the EJ short that I posted was a good short opportunity (if triggered). The GU long triggered, and the EJ short did not. And the trade that triggered turned out to be a winning effort. I posted each opportunity prior to the entry being triggered. I am not "cherry picking" after the fact trades to post here. Except for when I post an historical trade to make a point, I do not post opportunities unless I can do so prior to entry triggering, or soon thereafter in terms of both time and price. This thread is about reading price in real time. I cannot predict which opportunities will not trigger and which will trigger, and of those that do trigger, I cannot predict before hand which will result in a loss, which in a win, and which will be break even efforts. So, when I say I'm trying to get a losing trade for Don, I mean to convey the notion that all a losing trade is to me is an opportunity that did not move in my favor, and it will happen eventually, and soon no doubt, so long as I keep taking my swings. Best Wishes, Thales

Stopped at 1.6449 so +26.1 and +25 = +25.5 more or less. Not a bad afternoon. My only disappointment is that I was hoping for a losing trade per Don's request as I am very curious to find out why he requested, specifically, a losing trade. Best Wishes, Thales

It was just a matter of time before folks started to get in gear with the plus side of the equity curve. Next stop ... consistency. When are we going to see some hunnybunny trades? Best Wishes, Thales

Gabe, you are on fire today! Congratulations! Best Wishes, Thales

We are moving our stop up to 1.6449, and otherwise we are holding for 1.6494. Best Wishes, Thales

Looked like it was resting after we were stopped in, and for a while it looked as though I was going to be able to come through for Don and post that losing trade he has been asking for. Sorry Don, but the GU just doesn't want to cooperate, as it has now rallied past our BE move point, and we have hit the first PT for +26 (26.1 as we got .1 positive slippage). Second PT is 1.6494, and stop is BE on the remaining position. Don't worry, Don. We do have losing trades, so it is only a matter of time before you get your wish. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the EJ. I'm not a big fan of starting this late, but I'm trying to post a losing trade for Don. Best Wishes, Thales

GU ready to rest or rally? Best Wishes, Thales

Awesome eye, Gabe. We were out this morning, but we'd have taken that same short had we been here. Congratulations! Best Wishes, Thales

I think the ability to predict seems to imply what will happen as opposed to the to anticipate, which to me implies determining the odds of what might happen. Best Wishes, Thales

Well, an ending diagonal can occur at the end of a rally, as in this case, or the end of a decline. When I say "often," I mean a better than even chance of a powerful move opposite of what one was expecting. So, in this case, had price broken above the pattern, a strong rally would have been a better than even result. Anytime you can place bteer than even odds on an outcome, you have an edge. You could not say the same concerning a short, because the ending diagonal does not often produce an immediate swift and strong move in the anticipated direction. In fact, it is proabbaly more likely to do what it did here intially, decline lazily, or chop sideways, as it is to led to a sudden and sharp decline. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Ernie, Welcome and thank you for sharing. Each of us has to develop a regimen for trade management (stop loss and profit taking) that suits his or her approach. I'd be careful of asking open ended questions (e.g. "Thoughts?") where you are more or less inviting someone to offer an opinion on what you should do. It is your trade, and you should do what you feel is right. It would be helpful also if you could mark you charts more clearly as to your entry and anticipated profit levels. If you are not using profit levels but instead using a trailing stop, that is fine, but let us know that as well. As it is, it is unclear to me what the basis of your trade was. I know Oanda has about the clunkiest charting technology around, but perhaps there is a way you mark the charts a bit more clearly. Also, I agree with Gabe: That large open space between Friday and Sunday will likely not help you. Again, welcome to our thread. I hope you continue to share your charts with us. Best Wishes, Thales

Know when news is coming, but do not guess what the news will be or how the market will interpret it. There is not try, only do or not do. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Does anyone see a pattern developing? Has anyone following along with our thread taken notice of this pattern? Has anyone here developed an "eye" for recognizing this price behavior in real time? How is this pattern useful? How could you use it to your advantage? You tell me.

Hi folks, Up late here doing some on-line Christmas shopping with my wife, and decided to take a last look. EU has etched out an ending diagonal. indicating at least a temporary pause in the rally is likely. Again, if price breaks out above, rather than ranging sideways or reversing to down, the move is often strong. Best Wishes, Thales

EU - Before & After Best Wishes, Thales

Out at 1.6560 for a net take of +31.8 pips, 2 tenths of a tick less than we had made had we made our preferred entry. Of course, from the couldawouldashoulda perspective, we made much less than if had entered at proper entry and rolled on up with the rally. Not to mention that we'd likely still be in the trade. But, you have to make due with what you got. Best Wishes, Thales

Here is how we managed our missed entry. As I said, we bought at market and the fill was 1.65429. We then added twice as price moved in our favor. We now have three positions with an average buy of 1.65494, with a stop on each at 1.6560. We have PT1 limits on the two "first-in" positions at 1.6590, with a limit on the third position at 1.6645. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi folks, My daughter and I were saying good night to her little brother and we missed the entry on this opportunity. Buy stop 1.6528, go to break even at 1.6557, PT1 1.6590, PT2 1.6645. We're in, but not at 1.6528. We bought at market 1.65429. It happens. Best Wishes, Thales

A break even effort, and awaiting the next opportunity. Best Wishes, Thales

The Gain data through Ninjatrader shows a 1.6525 high on that little pop, but our broker shows a high of 1.65262, so we are going to break even on this trade. Best Wishes, Thales

We'll give it a try ... GU with a sell stop at 1.6469, go to break even at 1.6436, with PT's at 1.6420 and 1.6369; or GU with a buy stop at 1.6507, go to break even at 1.6526, with PT's at 1.6557 and 1.6607 This thing is really rattling around. Best Wishes, Thales