thalestrader

Make sure it is the latest edition, with about 100 stock charts at the beginning of the book. Best Wishes, Thales

That is from the first post of this thread. I just realized that in my initial posts I was using range charts on the currencies as I thought they would clean up the noise for my daughter and help her spot the important levels more easily. It was soon after I started the thread that I moved her to 15 minute charts. For what its worth, some of you might find range charts a useful companion initially. Fewer trades, usually (unless you are using a small range setting), but once you get a trigger, there is usually nothing to stop price before it gets to the next S/R level. Also, you have to adjust the range to the pairs you are trading and the current (and ever changing) volatilty. Overtime, I have looked at anything from a 10R to a 50R. You will have to play with the ranges to se which suit your eye as well as which captures the important levels on the pairs you are trading. Also, and again for what its worth, I checked back through my trading records. I really started to trade currecy futures in earnest back in 2004. I tried lots of things for a couple of years. In January of 2006 I seem to have settled on the 15 minute as my preferred trading chart for currencies, and it remains so today, almost four years to the day later. So do not feel you have to go to range charts. I will not be posting range charts myself. But I figure I would put it out there as something that some may find helpful. I still advocate focusing on the 15 minute chart of one market as the best way to learn to learn this appraoch on currency markets (futures or spot). Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Cory, Not to worry as you're not alone. The GU played me like a fiddle today as well. I was up 30 ticks at one point and thought I had moved my stop loss higher. Best Wishes, Thales

I agree with you, Gabe, that its not ideal. I had a buy stop at 130.95 and canceled the order. It may have the makings of the sequence, but its doing it from within a choppy range. Probably a 50/50 shot if it triggers. Why take 50/50 when the next 80/20 trade is never far away? Good eye you are developing there. Best Wishes, Thales

A follow up. Best Wishes, Thales

USDCAD is at a point, as seen here on the four hour chart, where an opportunity may present itself one way or the other. Best Wishes, Thales

I always have a point at which if price moves favorably to that point, my stop goes to break even. It is based upon the size of the swing off of which I am trading, the size of the pullback prior to the entry trigger, and near term, near by S/R. All of which sounds very complicated. In the mean time, you should use near-term near-by S/R, and then see how that matches up to say a 110-127% fib extension as a short cut. After a while, your eye will just pick up on where price may react and reverse against your position. Best Wishes, Thales

current look at the 6J Best Wishes, Thales

A follow-up. Best Wishes, Thales

I forgot I was supposed to post a losing trade for Don. My occult powers took over and when price failed to rally to a higher high, I moved my stop to break even for, you guessed it, a break even effort. Best Wishes, Thales

I trade only through FXCM. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, A little late on the post, and I entered this with a market order as I was writing the above posts and not paying attention. A little long on the GU. The opening bell just rang and I need to get busy. Best Wishes, Thales

I turned in late last night, and I saw this on the EJ before shutting down. I set a sell stop at 130.84 with a 40 tick PT, and I set a buy stop at 131.30 with a 40 tick PT. I have attached a chart and the PnL in ticks from that trade. I was asleep when it triggered, I was asleep whent the PT was filled. Were there other opportunities during that time? You bet. I cannot catch them all, and I certainly cannot post them all. (As a side note, I was going to post this last night, and I drew in the PTs in the manner I did because I was going to illustrate how I select PT's based on prior S/R. I did not end up posting this chart last night because I allowed myself to get distracted by Don's post of his losing 5 minute EU trades). The short triggered and hit +40, the long did not trigger. I do not post every trade I make here. And I do not trade every opportunity that presents itself if two or more show up simultaneously. I was showing the EU last night in response to Don's posts. Don, like you, does things differently. That is fine. But doing it differently while passing it off as the same in what seems at times as an attempt to discredit the approach is disingenuous. Last night, I saw one potential trade on the 15 minute EU during the time that Don was trading for two losses on the 5 minute. The trade I saw was a long. It did not hit the full stop, though it would have been a losing effort (I never said that there would be no losing trades). It gave ample opportunity to cut it lose for a negligible loss. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, This is the ES. I post these two charts not because I traded either of these situations, but to illustrate a few points that I have made here in the thread. Best Wishes, Thales

You apparently missed this post: There was no stop out to the upside as price never offered at 1.6463 at FXCM, and according to the Gain data on Ninjatrader, it printed a high at 1.6460. Perhaps some would have been stopped in long at their brokers, but if you are going to trade at a bucket shop, you have to take into account your bucket shop's data and spread, not mine. Also, I use the Ninjatrader charts to illustrate what I am looking at because FXCM's charts are awful. But I set my orders according to the maker of the market we are trading, not Gain. There will at times be differences of as much as 3 ticks between what I post based upon Gain and what I am trading based upon FXCM. There were three trades to the short side. The first two we took, and both were stopped after hitting our BE adjust. I was gone by the time the third trade would have become evident to me, and that would have been a losing effort. But, for the sake of argument, let us call the first and third short trades losses. Let us say each was hit for a full stop of -20 and -25. So there were three trades, all short, for a net loss of -45 ticks. The next opportunity would be the long on the other side of the prior range. That trade hit both PTs for +70 on hald and +100 on the other half for a net of +85 ticks. So, had you watched just this one market taking the opportunities as they appeared on the 15 minute chart, you would have made 4 trades (which is a lot for the time period covered), with 2 losses, 1 break even, and one winning trade. Let's count the break even trade as a loss, and say you had only a 25% win rate yesterday. You still came out with a net of +40 ticks. Now, Midk, I do not know why you are coming across with such a bitterness. I feel I have made every effort to help you. The one suggestion I have made to everyone trying to learn to apply this approach is that they pick one of market, follow it for one week on a fifteen minute chart, and paper trade it. From your posts, I can only assume that you have not taken this suggestion. You are being more than a little unfair to me. You have tried to do what I do your way. It hasn't worked for you. If you wish to be fair, why not try to do what I do my way, at least for a week. Unless and until you do, your negative attitude is unjustified. You are free to trade anyway in which you wish. I continue to hold this thread open to other approaches, including variations of mine. But if you are going to do things differently, you cannot in fairness then turn around and say that my way is somehow to blame. Best Wishes, Thales

One last look at the EURUSD and then I am definitely done for the night. Now,let me ask you all (and I would love to wake up to some posted answers as this is not meant to be a strictly rhetorical question): Did it take any special talent or any mystical and magical powers to see that the EURUSD had settled into a tight range of overlapping price movement? Does it take any occult powers or insightful interpretive powers to see the opportunity offered by setting stop entry orders on either side of that range with profit targets at the nest S/R levels? Best Wishes, Thales

Now it gets interesting ... I'll get to bed sometime tonight. Best Wishes, Thales

Just so we do not confuse how I presented it with the way in which some pursue it ...

Last look at the EURUSD before I turn in for the night. I'll see you folks in NY. Best Wishes, Thales

Don't you look both ways before you cross the street? When you see nothing but traffic, its best to stay on the sidewalk until it is safe to cross. If you are only going to look at the EURUSD, that is fine. I think focusing on one market is the best way to get a handle on this approach. But you do need to then wait for price to indicate it is ready to move. I also think the 15 minute time frame may be easier to work with initially. Best Wishes, Thales

Whenever it presents itself. Right now we have a buy stop on the GU at 1.6463 and a sell stop at 1.6426. Best Wishes, Thales

I'm not sure what you are asking here, Don. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Current look at the GU. Best Wishes, Thales

I didn't say you were knocking it. I just thought that your request that I post a losing trade somewhat off the mark. After all, if I am posting the trades either before the entry triggers or soon thereafter, how can I determine before the trade is over whether or not I am posting a losing trade or a winning trade? Best Wishes, Thales

Right, Brownie. How could anyone possibly think they could trade with such a pathetically outfitted tool box? I'm pulling for you, Dinero, but I'm not a warm weather person. So if you get yourself hooked on indicator crack, someone else will have to fly out there for the intervention. Best for you never to try the stuff. Trust me. It took me years to kick the habit. You are not missing anything. Trust me. Best Wishes, Thales