thalestrader

I would would have probably treated this the same way if the same patterns presented itself on a 15 minute chart. And for what its worth, I found in the past that the 6C and I did not get along on the 15 minute, and so I would only trade it if I saw something on a larger scale. Hence, I would treat the USDCAD spot pair the same. I am not at all interested in trying to day trade using a 15 minute trading chart unless it is at a significant S/R visible on a 240 minute or higher time frame. Right. But again, probably not on this pair. Best Wishes, Thales

Yes, that is exactly what I meant - that was the level at which I was ready to try a short. As I said, I think a short attempt at the level you suggest was reasonable. I just didn't trade it myself. I certainly can find no reason to criticize someone who would have traded that short. One thing I look at is whether price is moving impulsively, with little overlapping price action, or whether price is chopping around, with lots of overlapping price action. The rally from the 10/14 to 11/01 was what I consider to be impulsive. The price action since that time has been characterized by choppy, overlapping waves. As such, I was willing to allow the chop to pull back to the level I mentioned while still considering the overall trend to be more bull than bear. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Remember that this morning is NFP at 8:30 am EST. Best Wishes, Thales

Do you see what I see ... remember ... no more free kisses Best Wishes, Thales

I think I answered that here. If I misunderstood the question let me know and I'll try again. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, EJ short triggered with a 132.73 entry. No excuse for anyone here not to be in this (this particular opportunity was posted at least an hour or more ago) and be in it right now with a stop loss at break even. Why break even? Because the short triggered, price dropped, rallied back to kiss the breakdown point good bye, and dropped to a new low. Allow price no more free kisses. Targets are +50 and +100. You'll have to look up the 15 minute yourself or someone can post it. I'm wiped out as it is and my wife still expects me to eat something before I go back to bed. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Just looked at the EJ and saw a couple of intersting things. Unfortunate timing for what otherwise looks to be a decent short opportunity. Trade at your own risk. Sell stop would be the high 132.6x's - low 132.7x's depending upon your market maker and your own entry rules. Look at where today's rally struck its high (4 hour) and the view of price action since on the 1 hour. Have a good night, and thank you all for keeping the thread alive while I feel half dead. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I tried to catch up the best I can. PM's will have to wait until I feel better. If anyone posted a question or comment that I misses, just wait until I am back all the way and bring it to my attention. Best Wishes to all, Thales

Those two chapters are all you need for our purposes here. I do not use the volume analysis as he does. But study how price bases and then breakout. Even though those are daily and weekly charts, you will see the same activity on your 15 minute charts (all time frames really). Rally and base, rally and base. Best Wishes, Thales

This was break even, but only because I'm sick and we closed it early. Otherwise it would have been a small loss at the point you notoed. Best Wishes, Thales

I saw that too Gabe. You should really take a long view of that chart and see how price acted from the preceding large rally through that choppy decline to the point you note through this the 200+ pip rally from that sequence. I think you can learn alot about how to differentiate a potential runner from a "take whatever you can" opportunity. Nothing is certain, but not all sequences offer the potential. I'm fading fast and just waiting for my wife to take me to the doctor (I haven't been to the doctor for a sick visit in at least a decade, but I feel terrible, so time to bite the bullet). When I feel better and have time, I will try to mark up an EJ chart to show you what I mean. But you should definitely decrease your bar spaceing and take a picture of the EJ from its 126.xx low through this morning. Best WIshes, Thales

One of my circle of trading colleagues trades only S/R off 4 hour charts. He trades six or seven different pairs and gets 0-6 trades each week. I think you are right that someone haveing a tough time with this approach (or any approach, for that matter) could only help his or her cause by limiting oneself to initiating trades only in the vicinity of tests/breaks of longer term S/R. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Blowfish, I didn't sell that poke down. I had a sell stop at 1.0370, but it didn't get that low. I think a short at a higher level, perhaps below 1.0415, would have been reasonable to attempt, as I thought price might decline to test that 1.0375 level. I just didn't set the order myself. I guess I may have had a "looking for long" bias at work, as I had been waiting for the decline back to that level since missing the short opportunity on 11/27. Best Wishes, Thales

USDCAD is moving as anticipated (not predicted - I'm with Kiwi and I really do think there is a difference). Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, My daughter woke me to look at the USDCAD, and since I was up, I thought I'd post an update her. Feeling awful still, so back to bed with me. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I wasn't feeling well yesterday afternoon, and last night I suddenly felt downright awful. I may be absent for a day or so until this passes. Heading back to bed now. I hope you all keep the discussion going. I'll do my best to respond to any questions when I am up and at it again. Best Wishes, Thales

That looks good too ... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Current view of the GU. Best Wishes, Thales

Here is the daily tick count: +69.6 Not bad work if you can get it. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Went long two seperate positions on the USDCAD. Treated one as a daytrade and closed it for +25. The other has a break even stop, and we will trail our stop if price does rally rather than merely bounce at this support zone. Best Wishes, Thales

Here is how I would do it, but I may be wrong and miss an opportunity because of it: At this time of day I wouldn't have any orders in, especially not on the Yen pairs, and not on that range. I would rather wait for price to start swinging a bit closer to 7 PM est. Also, I'd be more interested in what happens below 130.56 and above 131.27 than the range you are marking off. Periods of range contraction (low volatiilty) lead to periods of range expansion, and there should be plenty of profit left to be made even if you wait for price to tip its hat in the direction it wants to go. Best Wishes, Thales

One last follow up to the ES from earlier. I'm worn down and out of here 'til later. Best Wishes, Thales

Ok. Have a good day, Best Wishes, Thales

No matter how you slice it at FXCM, a 130.95 buy stop would not have triggered. The two highs were 93.7 (first high) and 93.50 (second high). Shown here using the candle chart and the min/max/mid view as well. The thin blue line is exactly 130.95. The spread at FXCM is 1.2 on the EJ usually. So the 93.7 + 1.2 = 94.9, so round up to 95 for the entry order. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi TraderB, In the future it would be helpful if you identify the individual trades. I see what I think must have been a long opportunity, so I will respond in that way. Here is how I would have approached the AU as a long. The BE move point is based upon the 11/26 high struck around 1:45 AM EST (not shown). As per my convention, blue line is the entry, red line is an initial stop loss, green line are profit targets, and the dotted magenta line is the point at which I'd move my stop to BE. Best Wishes, Thales