thalestrader

I did close 1/2 my contracts at 1.6265 for +10. I have a +5 stop and my +35 limit order in and I'll just let either the clock or the market decide (I won't hold past globex close). Well, as I was typing this the second batch of contracts closed at +5. I'm done. Best Wishes, Thales

I only ever meant this to be an exercise to train folks to both see and think of price in terms of trend, trend direction, trend reversal, and I would add trendlessness (chop zone). Here is the quote exactly: S/R is primary. But, S/R not only exists at various levels, but it is in the process of being established at new levels. The H-L-LH is the first indication that price is finding resistance, and the L-H-HL is the first indication that price might be finding support. So donot think that the 1-2-3's are somehow separate from S/R considerations, as they are themselves indications of S/R, at least the potential for S/R. I've never backtested the 30PT15SL on the 6E, and I no longer have the interest or inclination to do such things. But perhaps Kiwi, our master of the Round Table, would ragale us with a tale of whether or not such a crusade would bring the would-be Knight wealth and glory, or would it be but a fool's errand. At any rate, I only meant it as an exercise to be paper traded. If it turns out that someone can make a living doing it, then that would be a bonus for having paid attention and taken me up on my suggestion. Best Wishes, Thales PS Cory, if things are working for you as you are doing them, my suggestion would be do not change anything. Do not let yourself become confused.

I'm in with you Forrest. My entry was 1.6255 (6B), and I'm only looking for 30-5 ticks myself. I've got a limit at 90 but I'll hit the flatten button at 85 if I don't like the DOM. Best Wishes, Thales

Good work, TradeRunner, thank you for sharing your efforts with us. Here is my work up of yesterday's 6E. Look at the comments I made and let me now what questions you have. I hope you keep this up for a week or two or three. I think you will find that you will gain a great skill in a short period of time. I get so many PM's from folks who tell me they've been trading for 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, and still they are struggling. Yet few take my suggestion and just commit a few weeks to observing price and marking off highs and lows. You would think after years of struggle, they could muster a few weeks of concentration to try and right the ship. It reminds me of Ed Seykota's Market Wizards interview where he says that "everybody gets what they want out of the markets." Indeed they do. What frustrates folks is that what they actually want and what they think they want are usually two different things. If you keep posting your 6E, I'll keep posting mine back. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi folks, I just bought the ES and I'll risk 3 points or so here for the chance to make 15 on the day. Best Wishes, Thales Update: Well, that went well, and by "well," I mean poorly

I'm concerned with what price has done, and in what order it has done it, I am not concerned with each and every or any particular candle. I would caution against letting this turn into another "can't see the forest for the trees" moment. It is bad enough I have everyone looking candle to candle looking for two-three bar reversals and mising the big trend breakouts. I do not want anyone thinking they should see something significant in each and every candle. I am always more attentive when price has declined to an area of potential support or rallied to an area of postential resistance. Best Wishes, Thales

That information is reserved for paying subscribers. Best Wishes, Thales

1.6242 found. Best Wishes, Thales

Ok, now why did you take the short? Where did you book profit and why? Best Wishes, Thales

Sure, I've mentioned often in this thread that for profit targets I look for support/resistance levels (prior highs/lows/breakout points) and then I use fibs to tighten my orders. Best Wishes, Thales

Looking for 1.6242 now. Best Wishes, Thales

Well, entry would have been at 1.6318 and the stop would now be at break even. For Profit targets, I like 1.6282 and 1.6242. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, We're doing a little trading as a spectator sport this evening. We're the GU to see whether or not we should have taken it short right here. Best Wishes, Thales

Perhaps. Isn't that what traders like DbPhoenix are essentially doing when they drop to a single tick chart? I find I am usually ok no matter what time frame I am watching. I prefer a fifteen minute for currency futures and a 5 minute for the ES. I rarely find myself chaning to lower time frames unless I missed something, or I want to make sure that where the high print was before the pullback (again, recall the "pinbar" post I referred to earlier). Best Wishes, Thales

Weekend Reading, Part II Due to popular demand as evidenced from my PM in-box, I scrounged up two more Joe Ross items for you. The first is "Trading by the Minute," which is Ross's day trading manual. The second is call Joe Ross Trading Manual. For the life of me I have no idea where it came from or how I came to possess it. However, I did a quick perusal, and came upon this little "gem," as Brownie (who is himself a gem) would say: How are you to do all this? Practice, practice, PRACTICE. Practice recognition of congestion areas. Practice recognition of high probability breakouts. Practice trend recognition. Practice and more practice. Just like anyone who wants to achieve perfection at anything, there must be total dedication, study, practice and more practice. You are to become a trading virtuoso. You are to practice, yet always realizing that you will never attain true perfection, that there is always room for improvement. There is usually a way to refine: ways that you can do things better, more efficiently, and with greater speed and finesse. Sounds like a reasonable expectation to me. So, keep practicing, folks! Here are the links, same as before: https://acrobat.com/#d=oF8OdsAh6tbco5-IC0qdrg https://acrobat.com/#d=xzOjg1kc0wluZJM2vdRMUQ Best Wishes, Thales

Let me restate that: It may be better to say "time frame is secondary to what price itself is doing." I'll leave it at that for now while I try to figure out a more elaborate way to explain what I think I am trying to say. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi traderbrazil, One of the problems with this approach as I have presented it here, at least over the last month or so, is that many have become focused on the trees, and as a result lose sight of the forest. I see several higher lows prior to your entry. You just are looking for them somewhere else. Best Wishes, Thales

The exercise is itself meant to be somewhat mechanical, so I think you are fine. I was concerned that you were using a swing finder indicator,in which case the object of the exercise, which is establishing the ability to ascertain trend, trend direction, and trend reversal, would be undermined. It would be like learning to play chess using a computer, which is fine, so long as you are playing the computer rather than letting the computer determine your moves for you. I really would not have considered the long a loser, as it should have been about break even. I do stop after two losses (usually). But in this case, whenever I am whipped like that, especially when the opposing entries are very near the same price level, I give up. I assume that something is happening in which I am not meant to participate. So I look elsewhere for opportunity. As far as why I marked a long there, I may have made a mistake. I was assuming that the high of the bar that defined the long entry was followed by the pullback into the low of the next bar before price proceeded higher. As this was after the fact, then price may have made its high on the subsequent bar prior to the pullback, in which case the entry would have been about 8 ticks higher than I marked. My long entries are always based on a L-H-HL. Timeframe is really irrelevant. Take a lok at this post of Kiwi's, and look at the chart he posted (it was a copy of one of mine): http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/208/reading-charts-real-time-6151-149.html#post81389 I think you will see there what I assumed, perhaps incorrectly, occurred on the 6E yesterday. Best Wishes, Thales

Maybe more of a Thales ADX? Best Wishes, Thales

Are the swing lines drawn by you or are you using an auto-drawing tool? Here is my take on the 6E from yesterday, albeit from the comfort of my armchair and the calmness, coolness, and collectedness of hindsight. Best Wishes,

I am follwoing your contributions with great interest, and I hope you continue with them Forrest. I'm looking at Ross with fresh eyes myself because of your work. Keep it coming! Best Wishes, Thales

I was hanging out with my currency trading friend today, and I'm just now checking in here at the thread. I guess what I was trying to say is that once price goes flat and trendless, I will often jst wait for price to start "swinging," as my friend would say. In other words, I am no longer looking for price to break out so much as I am wating for volatility to return, and then I will start looking for a breakout. That means price might impulse quickly and "break out" of a flat ranging period to the upside. But I am not looking to trade that breakout. I want to see whether that breakout becomes a high, followed by a higher low, in which case I will buy a new high; or will that high be followed by a low, and then a lower high, in which case I sell a lower low. Does that make sense? I had quite a day of trader talking and chart walking with my friend, and for some reason I feel all "thinked" out. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Cory, I think an FXCM micro account is an excellent way to learn to trae an approach without risking much. I was a little surprised by the size of the spreads today. I didn't notice at first, but my currency trading friend IM'd me that the spreads were 2-3 times wider than normal, and he was right. I don't think I saw the spread on the EJ narrow to lees than 2.5 most of the day, when it is usually 1.2. We conjectured that it is due to low volume, and he and I are both likely to be finished trading for the year. I think demo trading until January is a good idea. Also, notto add pressure to your $250 micro account trading, you might be surprised at how quickly your 3 figures can grow to four and five figures so long as you do not go insane on the leverage. You may not win king of the micro, but in the end you will still have a growing account long after the cowboys have gone form $500 to $5000 to $0. Best Wishes, Thales

I think so too. Best Wishes, Thales

I've said it before myself - after controlling oneself, the real holy grail is position sizing. Best Wishes, Thales