thalestrader

SRLS paper trade as of the end of week. Long 3.84, close 3.80, SL 3.46 Best Wishes, Thales

Two from John Hill's Ultimate Trading Guide: "The mistake is not being wrong. The mistake is staying wrong." and "A trader who dies rich, dies before his time." Best Wishes, Thales

Taking a break from assembling toys ... I really thought there were elves who would do such things! The most ridiculous experience this year for me is that I just spent 40 minutes taking a remote control dinosaur out its box. It took three minutes to assemble it once out. Who packs these things? Anyway, the main difference is you do not want to enter as price is trading into S/R, especially a recent BO level, for the first time after the BO. In the case of the older trade, I was asked by someone why not buy at that point, and my answer was that with only 7 ticks between the BO level and the buy stop just was not worth the risk. I probably should have added, though I assumed it was understood, that a first test of prior support as resistance is not a plce you want to be entering a long trade. In the chart from this week, price had alread trade back to and through the BO level, and the buy point was at least 20 ticks below the last reaction high. I can work with 20 ticks, I can't work with 7 ticks. Again, the real difference is this week's trade involved buying well below the highest level reached after the initial test of prior support as resistance, whereas the older trade would have been buying nearly right below prior support on the first test. Best Wishes, Thales

Sounds like a good idea for a thread, maybe reading charts in real time, or something like that. Best Wishes, Thales

This is quite common price action subsequent to an ending diagonal. Best Wishes, Thales

I would hope you really do not feel a need to go into "read-only." I think your posts have been an excellent contribution to the thread. None of us has complete control of how our words are interpreted once we hit the "SUBMIT" button. This wasn't the first time there was this type of misunderstanding here in the thread, and it won't be the last. Roll with it and keep participating. That's what traders do, right? Best Wishes, Thales

Yes Sir, RichardTodd. I have mentioned my good friend more than a dozen times who insists on keeping floor pivots and a CCI (though I see him using less and less these days) and a band of ema's on his charts. I know from watching how he trades that he really does not need these. But, as I said before, who am I to argue with a guy who has gone from just making a living out of the markets to making 4 and 5 figure profits on a weekly basis in the space of a year or so, and all because of his confidence in his indicator(s)? If such a system existed, I admit I'd like to give it a try! Do I get to wear VR Goggles as well? When I first started the thread, I had an idea of what I wanted to share and how I could best do it to help other folks. I did not want to make it about my approach, and I did not want to attempt to create a bunch of Thales Clones. I do think the approach stands on its own. However, I also think an awareness of PA as I trade can help any trader, regardless of whether that trader is trading a bare chart, watching for MA crossovers, measuring stochastic divergences, or contemplating spinning 3-D graphs while sitting in a chair with vibrating alerts (tell me that doesn't sound like a fun way to trade). I do think that all you really need is chart to do this well. But I am also aware that trading is a confidence game (think about that phrase), and if it takes an indicator or two or some flashing paint bars or some spinning 3-d graphs to give the trader the confidence he or she needs to make decisions based upon what price itself is telling them, then who am I to try to take that away from them. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, EURJPY rallied to within 14 ticks of the anticipated resistance zone in the 131.60's. Price did decline, but only to test the breakout level f the immediately prior base as support, and it has now rallied up through the 131.60's. I posted a short indication last night, that would have been a loss. Of course, it triggered during The Dead Zone between the NY close and the Tokyo open, so in all likelihood, I would have avoided that entry, In the process of taking anyone who had traded it out of that short, the EJ put in a little double top, from which it then declined to test that prior base and BO level as support. In the process of testing that level as support, EJ gave a long indication, thus allowing for an entry into the continuing uptrend. I would expect that the EJ is likely going to rally to the upper end of what is now almost a year long range between a 126.00 low end and 139.00 high end. Any short inidcations in the mean time have a high likelihood of reversing back to long when price declines to test an immediately prior base. For any decline to pick up steam to the downside, a break of two prior BO levels would need to occur. I'll be watching off an on today until we leave for church this afternoon. After that, I will not post until Friday when I post the next Weekend Reading contribution. Best Wishes, Thales

I saw your earlier post, but I did not realize you intended to watch those 12 little charts concurrently! How often do you think you need to look at a four hour chart? Have you considered tabs? Simplify, Cory. Simplify. Best Wishes, Thales

You would be amazed at what I can do with a laptop. Best Wishes, Thales

Here is an IBD 100 stock ... AIXG Best Wishes, Thales

SRLS did print at 3.84, and while I doubt I would have been filled based on that lone print, for the sake of this paper trade, we will assume that I own SRLS at 3.84. The fact that 3.84 was the high tick since posting this stock, we are safe in assuming that I would now own it at no more than 3.84/share. I'll track this here as though I own it. Stop loss is as noted - $3.84. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Here is a familiar pattern from the 4 hour EURUSD. Best Wishes, Thales

I have never had one problem with Infinity, and my brokers are top notch as far as Service. I have sent non-urgent questions via email on weekends assuming I'd get an answer sometime Monday or Tuesday, and I have been surpised often to receive near instant responses. I've never had so much as a questionable fill. Plenty of losing trades, for sure, but those are my responsibility, not Infinity's. Best Wishes, Thales

Here is the current EURJPY. Price rallied to within 14 ticks of the resistance target, and we now have a short opportunity presenting itself on the 15 minute. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi MK, I think Cory has been spending the last couple of weeks annotating the H's and L's on only the EURJPY: Best Wishes, Thales

When price reached the previous swing high, my stop would have moved to break even. I would not have stopped and reversed, because that would have been a third trade with nearly the same entry point. I am referring to the short you mentioned yesterday, which was a reasoanble short, albeit unfortunately timed. No such thing as fake outs. Price impulses or trends, and price consolidates, ranges, or otherwise chops. Price gave you two break even trades to get your attention that it was in a chop zone. If that wasn't enough, price produced both a higher low and a lower high, a clear indication that price was stuck within a range that was bounded by the last real high and last real low, and that you should take your cues from the last high and low. Again, there is no such thing as a fake out, fake break out, fake break down, fake break up. Everythnig price does is very real. We should not make ourselves feel better about our misreading price by accusing it false inducements. I tried that for many years. Trust me, it got me no where, and it will take you there as well. Absoluely! There was no other play to be made as price was in the chop zone and a break out trader knows to take his or her cues from a break of the last real high or low, whichever comes first. I made some notes on the chart of the EURUSD. Print this one out. Anyone who is having difficulties with getting chopped up, print this chart out. Anyone who still believes that "false breaks" exist, print this chart out. These two little guidelines, i.e. 1) two opposing trades back to back at nearly the same entry point and/or 2) the production of a LH and a HL which establishes price in a range between the last real H and last real L, will save you much heart ache. By the way, I did not just make these up here and now. I have repeated both of these criteria of a chop zone repeatedly through out this thread. You only need one to conclude you are in a chop zone. Best Wishes, Thales

Tracking the EJ like NORAD tracks Santa ... Official NORAD Santa Tracker Best Wishes, Thales

I second that sentiment! Just remember to credit any successes to me and any temporary set backs to Kiwi. I wish you well, and Happy Birthday! Best Wishes, Thales

Come on. now, Marko, this is not that kind of forum, and this is certainly not that kind of thread. Don't let yourself be so easily insulted. I don't think Richard's post was arrogant at all, and if you took it so, I can at lest say with confidence that he did not mean it to be so taken. I thought his post was downright funny! That's funny! Peace. Best Wishes, Thales

The 6E was not trading during the hour that the EURUSD moved down. I always watch the spot when trading the futures, and I think it is very important to see what the spot does while the futures are closed. I do not like trading between the NY close and the Tokyo open. The other 20-21 hours are fair game if I am awake and watching. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi DaKine, Nice to have you here! I think your short was fine. The only difficulty would be that it triggered around 2:45 PM EST, and the US markets closed a little over an hour later. I do not like openeing new currency trades that late in the day, and usually by 4 PM EST, win or lose, I usually close the trade. Your target was fine. Price just didn't get there. I would draw your attention to that large bar from the low reached during your short. I do not mean to emphasize a "bar." What I do wish to point out is that the decline was slow, choppy, overlapping, and uninspired. Then price jumped, quickly retracing from the low back to and above the short entry BO point. That is the move to look for after the NY close. Wait for price to start swinging, and then wait some more to see which way the swings will carry. Thank you for sharing your trade. I hope you continue to share with us here. Best Wishes, Thales

And here I thought there wasn't anyone left to buy the darn thing ... Best Wishes, Thales

Nothing to see here, folks, move along now, nothing to see ... Best Wishes, Thales

I trade stocks, and I do pretty well at it. Apparently I am among the few lucky souls who manage to do so without even knowing what a V W A P is. And I'm not asking what it is, for I really do not care. And I'm not saying that for some folks, a V W A P, whatever it is, may in fact be useful. I am just saying that you are wildly overstating the importance of whatever it is you are talking about, and a bit less hyperbole would be appreciated. Best Wishes, Thales