thalestrader

Hi Folks, I was going to post this here, but I thought she deserved her own thread: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/christina-may-candy-schaap-1954-2010-a-7354.html#post85296 Candy Schaap, a wonderful trader and teacher, has lost her battle with cancer. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I just received sad news that Candy Schaap died on New Year's Day. For those that didn't know her, Candy and her husband, Dr. Charles Schaap, are known to many through the book ADXcellence, as well as the teaching she conducted through seminars and through their private group at Telechart Platinum. Candy was a very generous teacher, and while ADX was her indicator of choice, she was a consummate price action trader. She well knew and taught well the path of Higher Highs and Higher Lows, and Lower Highs and Lower Lows. You can view her obituary here: http://obit.wsclancy.com/obitdisplay.html?id=741655&listing=Current Her husband shared this quote from her made during her last days in the newsletter he sent this morning: "My life has been like a trade; I got stopped out sooner than I wanted, but at least I was profitable." - Candy Schaap I know many here are suspicious of those who vend their wares to the trading world, but Candy and her husband are truly, truly among the few good ones. God Bless, Thales

It has a lot of room to roam to the downside if it wishes. The range on the monthly chart between a bullish breakout and a bearish continuation is nearly 1000 pips. Best Wishes, Thales

I was still asleep when this action occurred, but the GU short you correctly identified offered a very nice early entry on the reaction rally prior to the decline to the larger lower low. I haven't shown the GBPJPY, but that also offered the same early entry on a smaller 123. Best Wishes, Thales

I've got news for you - if buyers are buying and sellers are selling, the market is open. Best Wishes. Thales

When price comes out of one of those wedge-like ending diagonals in the direction opposite of what one would expect, it is usually goes a ways before it tries to reverse itself again. Usually, but not always. Best Wishes, Thales

I for one have never, ever, lost a trade I took in hindsight. Best Wishes, Thales

The shorter timeframe has more bars. For example, a daily bar chart will have 5 bars for every one bar on the weekly. So a weekly chart covering the same lebgth of time as a daily will only have 1/5th the bars of a daily chart. Best Wishes, Thales

We'll see if this is turns out to have been a good opportunity for a long entry into the potential big picture breakout. Best Wishes, Thales

Please, please take the Eagles ... current look at the EURUSD ... sometimes what I want and what happens diverge, a lot. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, EUR showing more life against the USD than the Eagles are against the cowboys. I'd have rather seen this happen closer to the Tokyo open, if not at or jusdt after, but what I want and what happens often diverge. Take the Eagles, for example ... I'll see you folks later. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Watching the Eagles getting whupped in Dallas and watching the EURUSD as well. Best Wishes. Thales

You can get free data from Gain through Ninjatrader, and most brokers offer an MT4 demo that I have found useful. Best Wishes, Thales

I don't have anything new, and it might be a bit boring to you if you are looking for fancy intermarket analysis or indicator combinations, but you might find some useful things in the Reading Charts thread found here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/reading-charts-real-time-6151.html Best Wishes, Thales

If I'm listening to music while trading, it is usually along the lines of Priest, Maiden, Metallica, AC/DC, GnR, Offspring, Social Distortion ... keeps me calm ... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Thank you for the help you have provided with the above chart. I would like your opinions of the following stock as well. I have provided both the longer and shorter time frames. Thank you, Thales

Hi Folks, I'd like to hear opinions on this stock chart. Any thoughts? Best Wishes, Thales

First, let's look at what I was looking at when I posted what I saw as either a short or a long. I was triggered into a long position. 1) First and foremost, let's consider what price was doing when I posted that I had brackets the area with both a sell stop and a buy stop (initialy I only had a sel stop). Price had declined after having rallied following a breakout of an area of congestion. After the decline, price rested in a narrow range. When price rests, it is not going to do so forever. It is usually going to continue in the direction it had been heading going into its snooze, but when that rest occurs at or near a recent break out level, then one should prepare for price either to continue to to reverse. Your proposed short entry, in my opinion, was both too late and too early. It was too late, in that I would have rather shorted the first 123 after testing what was now the high of a new range. It was too early in that having missed the first short opportunity in the 1.457x area, the next short at this point would be a break below the area of congestion from which price had broken the day before. This will be more clear if we consider the next point: 2) My proposed short short entry was 1.4433, which gave a 15 tick cushion between entry and support at 1.4418. I think I have said here before that "I can work with 15 ticks, I cannot work with a tick or two." You seem to be suggesting a sell stop at 1.4418. Why would you want to initiate a new short position right at the top tick of a potential support zone? 3) And last, recall that when I considered the short, price was in a brief period of range contraction. Where you are suggesting a possible short, price is experienceing a period of range expansion, with large overlapping swings chopping lower, digging into support rather than cutting through it. Now, here is what you would have been looking at where you are suggesting a short: When I look at the hard right edge of that chart, I see a long opportunity in the making, not a short. Now, here is the very next bar: A break to a slightly lower session low, but right to the 1.4319/19 level. Now, if price bounces and then drops below that level, I may try a short. But No way am I selling what has a very good chance of being the low tick before the prior day's rally resumes unless price tries to muster a rally and then fails (I do still occasionally short the low and go long the high - its an occupational hazard). Instead, let's look at my next trade (all of these screen shots are coming right out of my files - I take a pic of every trade I take, usually multiple pics - and I keep them. Forever.) I don't think I even posted this one as I would have been late getting the chart off (I do try to post my trades before they trigger). As you can see, price not only did not come back down to break that low, but instead set up a very nice looking long opportunity. I know I have said more than once in this thread and elsewhere at TL, price getting to S/R is in itself not sufficient to make me do anything. What is important is 1) How did price get there, and 2) what is it doing now that it has reached that level. In the first case, price had acted in a manner that led me to be comfortable going either long or short depending upon the direction price took out of that little narrow range. In the second instance, price was not acting in a manner that presented me with an opportunity to go short. In fact, it showed me a long, and then busted that opportunity, and then showed me another long, and triggered that opportunity. I follow price the best I can. I think in this case I did everything price told me to do. What do you think? Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Jon, I'm looking forward to your return. Best Wishes, Thales

Here is my experience with volume: When buying stocks to hold for more than the day, a pattern of rising volume indicates that mutual funds and professional investors are taking positions. This is good, for individual issues of common stock will only increase in rice over weeks and months if professional buyers continue to buy the stock. Price is still its own leading indicator. For day trading, I have yet to see anyone demonstrate in real time how they use volume to make a trading decision that could not have been made by watching price alone. There are, of course, those who purport to use volume as a leading indicator of price, and some go so far as to say you could "almost" trade based on the volume histogram alone without the price pane. But, in the end, even they are trading price action, and not volume. Not that there is anything wrong with that, I just wonder why the reticence to admit that price is the determining factor. Perhaps some have been able to use volume as a tool to aid them in making trading decisions; and if you have found that volume helps you, that is wonderful, and I would not want you discourage anyone from using that in which he or she has confidence. But from what I have been able to determine, intraday volume, if it measures anything, measures relative liquidity, which is not the same thing as "buying interest" or "selling interest." The best indicator of buying interest is a steady pattern of higher highs and higher lows in price, while the best indicator of selling interest in a steady pattern of lower lows and lower highs in price. I have done very well buying new session highs and selling new session lows, regardless of whether I had a lot of company at the moment I was buying or selling. In fact, one of my best trades ever was a long natural gas trade where there were a grand total of 16 contracts bought on a breakout when I bought. All of them were mine, the lone piker. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, EURJPY monthly. Nothing to do but to play that range until it breaks that range (125 +/- to 139 +/-). Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Monthly EURUSD. Falling sharply away from anticipated resistance. Below I outlined an important support zone (green line within the zone was a 1.2100 target I had for an old short on the 6E). Right now, I do not see anything one way or the other at the moment. A case could be made that the rally over the last few months has gotten choppy, sloppy and almost wedge-like. But, I do not see anything clear enough for me to say "I'd be looking to get long at 1.xxxx or short at 1.xxxx. I wish I had gotten short at 1.5000, but that's the stuff for wouldacouldashoulda. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Monthly GBPJPY. A break above the August 2009 high gives targets 2000-3500 ticks higher. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Monthly GBPUSD shows a range (nascent "triangle," aka Chop Zone) going back to August. I'll be watching for a break of that range to define the next GU/6B campaign trade. Best Wishes Thales

Hi Folks, Monthly USDJPY is presenting a familar pattern. Each of the last two times it presented this pattern, price commenced a move that lasted many months in the direction anticipated by the pattern. Nothing is writ in stone of course, but it better to be aware f the pattern's presence than not. Best Wishes, Thales