thalestrader

The red rectangle shows the 1131.50-1133.00 range. Price has printed 1131.50 high so far. I will short a 123 from these levels, and I would also be willing to short a "test, test, break" of support that might become visible on a 5 minute chart (you can search the thread for examples of what I mean [or ask Forest]). Best Wishes, Thales

I lose. 1131.50-1133.00 was my initial resistance target for the high. A 123 from those levels would get me short. A break and hold on a retest above those levels might get me lightly long. Best Wishes, Thales

Stop loss and Buy Limits are in and it is out of my hands now ... I'll let the market decide whether or not I win or lose. Best Wishes, Thales

That's a little too good of a start ... I'd have preferred the initial reaction to be up, rather than down. Best Wishes, Thales

Here is how it looks to me at the moment. I am prepared to get whipped out and re-enter depending upon what happens withe 10 AM news pending release, especiallyas I was expecing a slightly higher high than what we saw in Globex. I am also prepared to get whipped out and to sit on my hands. If ... then, right? Best Wishes, Thales

if support ... then stop loss if necessary ... if break ... then short ... Best Wishes, Thales

If ... then short ... have stop loss, will travel ... Best Wishes, Thales

Well that gem would have been a break even effort for me, but a gem nonetheless. Best Wishes, Thales

I fell asleep at the switch writing that lengthy post on the ES, and absolutely missed out on this gem on the GBPUSD. Time to focus. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Jands, As someone who knows you very well, I know you'll appreciate this: I have attached my wave count of the 15 minute ES (this is the count I sent to our freind L- yesterday), which has me expecting a final wave 5 of 3 rally before a wave 4 decline sets in. Now, I do not know "wave 3 of __________." I only concern myself with with might happen today, and not where the so-called "Big Picture" wave count is. You know I use EW for day trading, not predicting the future. And my count can be completely wrong (you know that as well). The first chart I snapped late yesterday morning/early afternoon, and the second chart is updated price action through this morning. At any rate, and the reason I bring this up at all is this: I use Taylor's book method to help me track the short term trading cycle of the ES. I've made no secret here that I use Taylor and that I subscribe to RichBois's TTT service (My three paid subscriptions are to Investor's Business Daily, Barron's, and Rich Bois's TTT - that's it). Today is a Short Sale day. As such, we expect a rally into which to sell anticipating a decline. Given the wave count on the continuous ES, a gap open above yesterday's high that fails to extend higher should offer a good short opportunity today on the ES. Of course, it is always possible that the high occurs prior to the open, and the sell off could therefore be in progres and extend from the open. None of this is a prediction, but is rather a set of "if ... then" plans so I know how I will act depending upon what the market presents. I know there are a number of influential folks here at TL who argue that gaps do not exist. But I know otherwise. I know how the trading desks treat gaps. Gaps offer important clues, but first you have to at least open your mind to the possibility that gaps between regular session closes and opens are viewed by professionals (think of the Merrill floor trader trading 1000 cars, not internet pikers like me trading 3-10 lots) as significant. Thanks for contributing here, Jands. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi EmNQ, Yes, your long entry was both late (if you look at my above post you will see that the chart was posted at the first long indication), and you were buying into a test of the last breakdown point. Did you not see the short that presented itself soon after? Best Wishes, Thales

This short on the GBPUSD must have been obvious to most anyone studying this thread. I know it is always easier to see these opportunities in hindsight, but I have no doubt that my daughter, for example, would have picked this up in real time. And if she could do it, then I probably would have had a shot at it as well ... probably. Best Wishes, Thales

GBPUSD follow up from last night - GU did indeed decide that the decline needed a pause, and though it started a bit choppy, it rallied back to the profit target and then some (not much, but some) before putting in what I think must have been a beautiful and obvious short opportunity. Alas, I was asleep at the time. One of these days I'll pry myself away from fund commitments and change my schedule to allow me to trade London and NY instead of NY and Tokyo. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Follow up on the EURJPY shows that we did indeed leave ticks on the table as price resumed the decline and proceeded to hit what would have been both profit targets. There might be something to that Jonbig "All in/All out" and trailing stop be darned. Best Wishes, Thales

GBPUSD looks as though it may want to change it up a little right here. Best Wishes, Thales

No problem, littlefish, I'm perhaps a bit too sensitive right now. I've had a couple of PM's in the last month or so from folks basically telling me I'm a fraud and wanting to know "what my deal is." I have no deal. No books. No cd's, dvd's, no trading rooms, etc. and so forth. The last thing I want is to be obligated to anyone. Right now, I could log off TL and disappear forever owing no one anything. That's how I want it. I came here freely, and when the time comes, I will leave the same way - of my own free will. What you see is what you get, and you get a lot more here at TL (not just from me, but from a lot of folks) for free than you do from all those seminars, books, cd's, dvd's software, etc and so on for which folks pay hundreds and thousands of dollars. Sorry, littlefish, if I came across as a bit cross. I certainly didn't mean to make you wear someone else's black eye. And I for one do not find your posts at all useless. I hope you keep them coming. Best to you, truly, Thales

Do you want us to post our platform credentials, littlefish? I'll do that - as I said, 9.9 on the EJ short ... GBPUSD is still open ... total PnL shows 10.4 because we had a .5 tick profit on an earlier GBPUSD short where we jumped the gun a bit. Best Wishes, Thales

We got stopped out with 9.9 pips on this EURJPY short. We'll probably find we left ticks on the table, but when something drops like that and bounces like that, I have no problem taking what I can before it takes me for what it can. Best Wishes, Thales

Sorry for the late post, but we took this short on the GBPUSD. We also took a short on the EURJPY and it dropped so quickly I didn't have chance to get a screen capture. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Traderunner, Two questions: 1) Are the solid arrows are located where you traded? 2) Are you still doing the 15 tick stop loss, 30 tick profit target exercise? Best Wishes, Thales

I'm not going to be taking this one, but if I were, I'd be saying "Here we go!" This is probably going to be a good one, because I have no reason not to take it other than I want to get back to trading only NY 7AM-12PM EST and Asia 7PM-9PM EST. If you look betwen the entry point and stop loss lines, you might see a little 123 that could indicate trouble for any nascent short position here if price decides to retrace higher than 1.4420-22 or so. Best Wishes, Thales

17.6 ticks. Let's round it down to 17 ticks and find the ES equivalent of 5.5 ES points. There are many who read, but do not post to Brownie's PnL thread who would be quite happy if they could pull down an average profit of 5.5 ES points/contract. And let's not forget that you held the position to a first profit target equivalent to 7.5 ES points, and that your second half was stopped out with better than a 1 ES point equivalent. That is a good day, by any measure. I do not mean to start comparing trading currencies to trading the ES, but I do think it is enlightening to consider how many ticks some of you are pulling out of the market lately, and how you would have to do trading what is one of the most popular trading vehicles of day traders, the ES. Also, for those who trade the ES, this approach offers plenty of opporunity there as well. I thought to post this this morning, but then I got word of Candy's death, and it threw my concentration off. But here is the ES, using nothing other than L-H-HL for a trigger, and a 127 fib expansion for a profit target (first chart), and this would have yielded 40 ticks, or 10 ES points profit from buy stop to sell limit. Even exiting at the prior high, using the 100% (A=C) expansion to tighten the order would have yielded over 7 ES points (second chart). Wouldcouldashoulda applies, of course. As I said last night, I have never, ever lost a trade that I took in hindsight. Best Wishes, Thales

1) Even those of us who can no longer wrap themselves in the "newbie" label as an excuse can still have our share of "wouldacouldashoulda" trades. 2) You made 9 ticks, which is 2.25 ES points (though on the BP it is half the value/tick), but the point is, how many "veterans" are out there posting on the internet about having a "1-2" ES point/day goal, i.e. 4-8 ticks profit/day? Quite a few, in my experience. And a number of them have had the ______s (keeping it clean for when my daughter gets home and reads this), to write instructional trading books that sell for $40, $60, $80 or more/copy? So, let me know when your book is coming out! 3) Your willingness to walk away when you aren't performing according to your trading plan shows, in my opinion, an admirable degree of discipline. 4) Nice trading, and thanks for sharing with us! Best Wishes, Thales

Nice trading, EmNQ and Cory. Though EmNQ may have to ask James to change his user name to reflect his currency trading chops. Best Wishes, Thales

I loking for the same thing (showing the 6E futures contract). Best Wishes, Thales