thalestrader

GBPUSD has broken toward the upper end of its recent range ... Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the ES shows it going basically no where since night, vacillating 2-3 points on either side of what I would have thought to be a decent long entry. Dollar selling has continued over night. Over the last few months whenever Seunday Dollar selling occurred, Monday US equity rallies have followed. ES has obviosly rallied from where it closed last week. But I think it will be interesting to see whether the old script has reasserted itself once the US exchanges open, or if the pattern starts to break down. Best Wishes, Thales

Just thinking out loud ... GBPUSD hovering above midpoint of recent range, eventually it will test one end or the other of it, right? Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the ES ... Best Wishes, Thales

The small accounts you see are trading spot retail forex through a bucket shop, so the risk/tick can be as low as $0.10 (one US dime). I have not traded the mini-currency futures contracts, but I would have questions concerning the liquidity there. As far as ES/NQ compared to the currency futures, there are many charts of each in this thread (though currencies do predominate). You will have to watch both and decide for yourself which if either will get you where you want to go. Best Wishes, Thales

..., and long it is, at least for now. Looks like after a few weeks holiday break, we are back to US Dollar selling Monday's, which for the last few months has meant big Monday rallies in the US equity markets as well. Ninjatrader is up and running properly now, as is FXCM. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi folks, Not trading yet, but I am getting warmed up. Here is the currecnt GBPUSD and EURUSD. The EURUSD chart looks different becasue it is from a metatrader demo account I quickly opened just now - for some reason I am not getting data for the EURUSD through Ninjatrader right now, and I have not been able to connect to FXCM either. Anyhow, I'm showing short here, but either of these are free to go long as well. As I said, I'm just geting warmed up. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, A week or so ago I shared John Hill's Ultimate Trading Guide as the weekend reading. I came across this interview with John Hill from TA of S&C Magazine. Sorry for the highlights - someone sent me this artcile and that is how I received it. Best Wishes, Thales JohnHill.pdf

I'm shaking it off and staying long Jets. Best Wishes, Thales

You know that feeling you get when your just know your stop is about to get hit, but instead of cutting the loss you just sit there and watch it take you out full stop ... that's a bit like I feel right now ... I'm all in/all out on this one, and now I'm just waiting for my stop loss to take me out ... Best Wishes, Thales

Jets hit profit target. Still long Eagles. Best Wishes, Thales

Long Jets & Long Eagles - both bets more emotional than technical or fundamental. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Jon, 6.5R! Excellent! I may have missed this along the way, but I am curious as to your R-level: Are you risking the same percent equity per trade, i.e. are you adjusting your position size to the size of the stop on each trade? Or do you use a fixed dollar stop? Best Wishes, Thales

This is like TRO but with all semblance of context removed so as to preclude any sense of intelligibility. Have you considered posting a chart, a few words of explanation, etc.? There is such a thing as providing so little information, that others do not know how to begin to formulate a question. Best Wishes, Thales

A Cheapie ... GOOG Best Wishes, Thales

Actually, I talk about this a lot here in the thread, impulse/thrust/expansion/trending versus corrective/overlapping/contraction/chop zone. The market moves impulsively, expanding its range until it reaches a level at which S/R exists, or at which S/R is being established. You want to trade those moves. After such moves, price will typically consolidate, the range contracts. Ideally you play golf, sleep, play with your children during periods of range contraction and you trade during periods of range expansion. Recognizing a period of rest or contraction is the dificulty, and that is where the notion of a chop zone is helpful. Once the market establishes a high and low of a short term range, and then pivots a lower high and a higher low without breaking the high or low of the range, it is time to stop trading and take your cues from the high and low of the range. So, you see, I really do speak of this often: impulse/thrust/expansion/trending versus corrective/overlapping/contraction/chop zone. You just have to put it all together. Best Wishes, Thales

Probably a matter of perspective determined by how you wish to trade (what you want from the markets and how you wish to get it). The top chart is the 6B, and to my eyes it offers much more opportunity for the day trader to catch tradable swings, at least over the period shown. However, the NQ moves in a steady, if somewhat choppy fashion from lower right to upper left, making for a very nice swing trade. Had you bough the 6B at the fhigh of the first bar at the far right and held to the close of the last bar at the far left, you would have made 22 ticks. Had you done the smae with the NQ, your profit would have been 189 ticks. Perspective. Best Wishes, Thales

If you are buying US listed securities, then wouldn't the entire principle be exposed to currency risk? Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Dinero, No, it wouldn't. This chart from a friend of mine if textbook BBBO. Best Wishes, Thales

Its amazing how easy it is at the end of the day to spot the opportunities I missed during the course of the day. Delayed instinct? Best Wishes, Thales

I'd need more info before I could be of any help ... for instance, are you an Eagles fan? Best Wishes, Thales

Weekend Reading "Position sizing (and psychology) account for 90% of the variability of your performance and you cannot neglect them." - Van Tharp Hi Folks, In addition to risk of ruin in general, the above comments allude to something I'd like to explore through the use of my new little micro account. Whenever I turn my attention to position sizing and my own psychology (neglect yours at your peril) I turn to my collection of Van Tharp writings. This particular article is a good start. Best Wishes, Thales Expectancy and Golden Rules of Trading Van K. Tharp.pdf

That wasn't a bad day ... and take out what you call "the stupid trade of the day," and you'd have finished +45. And to tell you the truth, I'm not sure I'd call it a stupid trade, and I'll tell you why: I went short of the 6E on the break of that 123 top at 1.4410. I had a stop loss above the 3 point, and a profit target of 1.4290 for 120 ticks. If I had kept my trading platform open rather than closing it soon after that trade triggered, I would likely have been stopped at break even on your "stupid trade of the day," and I might even have reversed to long. Its hard to tell - this is a "wouldacouldashouldanot" that fortunately, I did not do. As a result, after a mere 30 some odd hours, my profit target was filled and I had my best 6E trade in over a month. I do my best trading when I sleep - and I'm not kidding. I think I'd own an island right now if I would just have set my order, my stop loss, my take profit, and walked away until I was alerted that either the stop or the take profit had been filled. Best Wishes, Thales

I love your hindsight trades. Your actual trades? Not so much. Though this is sim, it should be treated as though it were real. I would suggest not trading in a chop zone, and not trading at all in the hours leading up to the NFP announcement. I hesitantly took the first of three hindsight trades. I was not initiating new position during the other two, but I closed my the last 15k of my 30k short at what would have been the long entry of your second hindsight trade. Best Wishes, Thales

This is what happens when you give a kid a crayon ... Best Wishes, Thales