thalestrader

A very easy and forgiving way to trade, right? Best Wishes, Thales

Here is how the ES looks over the last hour or so ... You can make it difficult, or you can make it easy. I prefer easy. Best Wishes, Thales

As he has been rendered unable to trade, apparently nothing. Best Wishes, Thales

Sorry for the delay, Forrest, I ran over to my daughter's elementary school to watch her perform in an assembly. I'll trail via swing points, with the objective to get my SL to PT1's level as quickly as possible. Once I get to PT1 for a stop loss, then It is usually PT2 or bust, unless there is a stop and reverse situation. Best Wishes, Thales

I think so. Stocks - trail behind natural stops (swing points) Futures - Move to BE as soon as reasonable, and then wait for PT1 ot BE. If you look back through this thread, I have very few times posted a trade where I say "I got it with 6 ticks." Maybe once or twice, but even that would surprise me. I get to break even, and then it is PT1 or bust. How many times have I posted this: "A break even effort." Many, many times. Now, if I am taking a continuation trade in the middle of a range, e.g. suppose I took a long near the low of the day, and I made it to my PT1 but the second half was stoped out. Now, suppose further that we are only halfway between today's low and yesterday's high. Well, I might take another long trade after some consolidation. If so, I may very well move my stop to say, BE +2 to +4, because buying in the middle of the range is not a very favorable play compared to buying near the prior day's low, right? So, if ever I do say, I was stopped out for +2 or + 4 or even +6, that usually will be a trade that was initiated from a level that is not, in my opinion, as favorable to my position as would like. The only other time will be if price came within a whisper of my PT1, I will start to shout my stop loss closer and closer. I do not want to risk +30 ticks because I stubbornly wanted 31. I hope that helps. Best Wishes, Thales

'Tis a turn, but of what degree remains to be seen, right? I don't have time to work up a chart, but I can count five waves down on the ES, so at least a temporary bottom is in place I would think. Still, a very impulsive decline of the highs to the lows, so I would anticipate more downside to come after a decent retracement of the decline. Best Wishes, Thales

Long EURGBP at 87.23, stop loss 86.96. Best Wishes, Thales

Nice chart! Looks like it needed to finish the wave 5 down. Best Wishes, Thales

You do not have to drill down to a one minute chart to see this in real time, but for our purposes here, I am showing the one minute chart of the ES short I took as it gives a good example of how I cut a loss when a trade fizzles before it starts. Best WIshes, Thales

Going to break even on the stop loss now ... Best Wishes, Thales

Current view of the ES ... Best Wishes, Thales

Update of the EURGBP short ... I meant to post this early in the morning but I forgot to do so after answering a few questions first. Price made it to within pips of PT2 and reversed for a break even stop on the 2nd half. After that rally, price has pulled back in what may be an ABC correction, so I would not be looking for a long indication per the longer term charts I posted of this pair last week, Best Wishes, Thales

New View of the 6B ... Best Wishes, Thales

And while it did not fall to the targets, it certainly has done enough to be complete... Best Wishes, Thales

I mentioned here a few weeks ago that I had forgotten what a well behaved market crude is. I can see why Brownie has, for the time being, taken to trading crude only. This was an easy 50 cents, which would be $500/contract (I'm sure its not always so easy). For anyone wondering, the hashed lines are prior day high/low. Best Wishes, Thales

I took the loss. Lots of volatility coming into the market - which is a good thing. I mentioned in an earlier post that wider stops and less chance to go to break even will likely beccome the order of the day for me if this continues. In the meanwhile, thanks to Brownie, I have taken up sim trading crude oil to keep me occupied while waiting for the next opportunity. Here is my current long - this is a Ninja demo account trade and not a real money trade. Best Wishes, Thales

You are still looking at price in terms of bars. What is more damaging to you is that you seem to be looking at bars in such a way as to let time trump price movement. Remember, a bar has an open, a close, a high, and a low. One of the nice things about candlesticks is they often, though not always, let you see the order of things (which came first, the high or the low). But you need to think of price as a moving and living thing, and not as hash marks on a graph. Best Wishes, Thales

And as much as I would like for price t decline to my targets, it has obliged me with a lower low, and that is all that it needed to do to complete the decline, if the decline is indeed complete. I'm still holding short for 1.6056, though that rocket launch off the 1.6088 low sure gave me a headache from how violently I raised my eyebrows and how wide I stretched open my eyes! Best Wishes, Thales

time to be short the 6B - targets 1.6059 and 1.5932 below... Best Wishes, Thales

Here is an example of how I use EW to trade. This is the 6B futures contract (GBPUSD) with my wave count of the decline off of the high. I use EW to sort of "map" a tradable nove, but I am not trying to put this decline from last night through this morning into any larger EW context. I just took this one as it looks like that wave 4 rally, such as it was, may be over and new lows are ahead. Of course, that wave 4 may be a wave 1A, and this may be 2B decline and a larger 3C rally is to follow. A break below the day's low would indicate wave 5 is underway (unless we get an irregular wave B), and my wave 5 targets are noted on the above chart. Best Wishes, Thales

Or possibly just a (potentially tradable) "bounce," and perhaps the "C" of an ABC correction before plumbing new lows. What is nice about this approach is that it does not matter - we take the trades, set our stop loss, and either book our profit or book our low, and move on to the next one. I'm on the 6B, and I have a 2R PT. I also have done a little Elliot Wave count to show how I use it. We have three large waves down. These are labeled 1 or A, 2 or B, 3 or C. Why? Because if it has bottomed with the three waves, then the entire decline is corrective, and the uptrend is reasserting itself. No different than any other approach based upon price. Price can do one of two things, continue or reverse. EW recognizes that, and provides for keeping both possibilities open. Last night, had I been up at the break, I would have sold the break of the wave 1 low. This is my favorite trade (and my daughter's as well). A nice big wave down with a three swing reaction against the decline - if I were not such an impatient person I'd do nothing but wait for the the 1-3 times each week that these present themselves on the 6B and 6E and forget everything else. My first PT would have been 1.6120, which would have been filled, and my second PT would be 1.6056, and would still be open. Right now, we have a potential abc up from the low. While this would be a small correction for that third wave decline, but price can do whatever it wishes, so there is nothing standing between this market and news lows but the will of whatever intrepid bulls and frightened bears there be. If this is three waves of an eventual five wave decline, then this bounce/rally should find itself not much higher than the green line marking the wave 1 break down level. I do not write the wave counts on my charts. Like most of my annotations, I do these today for the sake of posting the chart. But I do see these waves, and I do take them into consideration when I am making my decisions. I am not predicting an eventual wave 5 lower low. I am not predicting a rally back to the extreme wave 4 target of 1.6180. I am not even anticipating either as an eventuality. All I am doing is recognizing the mere possibility of each, and trading on what price indicates is more likely to happen next. In this case, since price gave me a long sequence (Low-High-Higher Low), I am trading to the long side. If price is not going to continue higher, that's ok, because I have a stop loss that will take me out and limit my loss. The first chart shows my long entry and stop loss. The second chart shows the wave count. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Beachtrader, Looks like it still needs the third push down. Best Wishes, Thales

Sure Gabe. And what I have doen here is I went right to my daughter's computer and her Ninjatrader chart to show what she did. The dotted red lines are hers. The text explanations, of course, I just added this morning for your benefit. The 128.206 level was based upoon the data she was being fed by FXCM, and so your data is likely off by a few pips or so. I think the charts will be self-explanatory. Again, she had the dotted red lines on her chart as early as yesterday morning before school. Everything else, including the blue entry, red stop loss, and green profit target lines I put on her chart this morning. Thales's Daughter's Four Step Process For Short Sales I hope that helps. Best Wishes, Thales

For a short, the low tick after I am stopped in is a Low. Price then bounces from that Low and rallies 3-4 ticks above entry. That is a High. Price then comes down and retests the low. That is a Higher Low. I am out if price comes back up to make a Higher High. This usually all happens on the same "bar." Bars have nothing to do with it - Highs, Lows, Higher Highs and Higher Lows, Lower Lows and Lower Highs. I am very consistent. Best Wishes, Thales

Looks like someone woke up the Buck. Now I have to get some sleep. Best Wishes, Thales