thalestrader

Took -3 ticks, and looks like this now unless we get a new high. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the ES ... seel stop is 1995.75 ... Best Wishes, Thales

Agreed. It is an accomplishment on a day like to today to come away with no real wounds. I like your second short. I know it was a break even for you, but I think it was a good opportunity and worth a shot. This approach does not assure no losses, but it does assure you that your wins should be a bit more frequent than your losses, and you should lose small relative to your wins. A break even result is a small loss indeed. I do not like the first short at all. In fact, I'm wondering if you may have a bit of a short bias today, as you took a short at a low. Not only that, but since you were managing an ill-timed short, you missed (or chose to ignore) a long opportunity that was at least as obvious as your second short. That long should have given a nice profit. Now, don't get me wrong, I love shorting new lows. But I do it either when I already have a short line and I am adding to it, or else I will get away with a new short at new lows when the new low is breaking a long term support that has been recently tested - I short the retest. Did you see the long, and ignore it, or did you just not see it? I'm just curious, but the answer may help you as you continue. For what it's worth, I took a real clunker of a trade yesterday on the ES. No harm done as I cut it loose for just a few ticks loss, but the point is no matter how long we do this, mistakes happen. I hope you don't take my criticism too much to heart. I think you are doing a great job, and the fact that you have both stuck with it for this long and you have improved so greatly sets a good example for other folks. Best Wishes, Thales

If I am here I'm watching the trade. Most of the trads you see me post here I watch closely and manage actively. The exception are those trades which take place during the Frankfurt/London morning hours when I sleep. But those are usually trades taken off of larger degree opportunities, and I am not as quick to move those to break even. Best Wishes, Thales

I did some more sim oil exploration today myself, and I had a bit of a rough start with it first thing in the morning, but I got short a dime lower than you and held for the run down, including adding at 74.58 and also on the break of yesterday's low, which to me was the most obvious trade, and gave the easiest and quickest profit. I gave a good bit back when I left to go play with my kids and I had an open order in the platform with no stop loss. No matter, it's only sim dollars. Did I mention that this was sim trading? I had one real money trade today - a break even long on the 6E. Every month I tell myself to take the fed days off. Every month I sit there spinning my wheels anyway. At least today, thanks to Brownie, I was able to keep from over trading myself by sim trading oil. I've had quite a bit of fun with it the last two days. Best Wishes, Thales

My girls had early dismissal from school today, so I bagged the day when they came home and we went out to race their r/c cars. Here is the only thing I marked up - the 15 minute EURJPY. I didn't trade it. My daughter didn't trade it. But I looked at my charts now, and it would have been a good one. (I know the dates say 1/26, but that it just because I entered the wrong date when naming the files - theiy're from today as you can see). Best Wishes, Thales

So you would be looking to buy about now given the overshoot to the downside, right? Best Wishes, Thales

Crude would have been a fantastic short on the break below yesterday's low (sorry for the funky colors but I keep demo account charts looking different from real account charts so I don't do something silly). Best Wishes, Thales

Well, we already have a Forrest Range Break out for when price is in a line (rectangular consolidation) and it starts making, say HH's and HL's toward the top (or vice versa). So for these where price is testing support and making LH's, we can call it the Jonbig Breakdown. Best Wishes, Thales

I hear you, Jon. I'd like for the break, should it be coming, to happen after a rally and after the fedspeak. This feels like a market that wants to trend, and knows the direction in which it wants to trend, but it is holding itself at bay until after something .... the fed? Obama? I do not know, but I have hesitant in this case to sell new lows at this point. The downtrend patterns look complete, (though I expected this impulse to carry just a bit farther, especially in the ES). So, I think I may sit on my hands for a while. It is day's like this when I think of my dad's favorite saying - "I'd rather be out wishing I were in, than in wishing I were out." Best Wishes, Thales

Here is the EURJPY daily. At this point, I am expecting that this latest decline will carry down a bit closer to the 124.37 low from 4/28/2009 (you should check this level with your own market maker - but this should be close). There is a zone of potential support in and around that could halt the slide sooner or allow it to continue a bit lower. However, that would be a level to watch, in my opinion. I'd be tempted to take 15 minute and 60 minute long sequences if a bounce develops, and if a break, I'd short the first short sequence after a rally to test the break down point. Best Wishes, Thales

Of course, having said that, my first trade of the day is the 6E (EURUSD). This screen shot doesn't show it, but we just had a pullback that hovered just abve entry, and now we are again testing the high of the move after entry. I am moving my stop to break even right now. Best Wishes, Thales

It looks like we are still better served looking to play the EURO for shorts and the POUND for longs. Best WIshes, Thales

EURGBP Update ... Best Wishes, Thales

You offer a very disciplined and accurate application of the approach - it is easy to keep your losses small and your profits large relative to the size of your losses when you take your cues from price as you do. That is a great series of charts you posted this morning (for I would say last night!). Thank you. Best Wishes, Thales

Excellent post! Best Wishes, Thales

Suddenly she is very happy she had asked my opinion. We'll see if she's so happy when the day comes to pick out her first car. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the 6B (GBPUSD) ... Best Wishes, Thales

She wishes she hadn't asked me. Best Wishes, Thales

My daughter asked me what I thought about a short on a break of 126.03, and loking at the chart, I was reminded of Marko's post above. I drew the lower channel line, copied, pasted, and placed it along the highs. Not a perfect fit, but it sure looks as though the decline from the afternoon highs is corrective, and that a rally rather than new lows is more likely. For whatever reason, PA often gets "funky," (for lack of a better term) heading into fed announcements, so it could go either way. At any rate, price did break 126.03, dropped to the channel line, and has found at least momentary support there. It could be just the bounce before the storm of course. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the dollar index shows the dollar printing a somewhat suspicious lower high on its most recent attempt to clear resistance. Lots of stuff tomorrow - hearings, the Fed, and the State of the Union According to Obama. The Buck may be stuck until everything is out. Best Wishes, Thales

If you do not feel right about a trade you are in, getting flat is a good course of action. You can always get back in after you re-evaluate, but it is tough to be honest with yourself when you still have money on the line. I also like that you were not looking to chased the downtrend. I would have been happy to enter short even after a 200 tick drop, but like you, I'd rather get short on a short sequence after a rally in the downtrend, rather than intiaqting a new short at the lows. Keep them coming! Best Wishes, Thales

I get "nic'd" as you put it, often enough for me to have figured out how to stop the bleeding quickly when it happens. So long as the initial H/LH is intact, I'll renter on a new lower low unless price starts really getting wide ranging and over lapping within the range of the sequence. In other words, if price starts zipping up and down between the H and the L (I think I posted an example of this last week on the 6B) I stand down. I rarely get "nic'd" twice on the same opportunity unless I am shorting at the lows of a larger range expecting a bigger break down. Learning to recognize ending diagonal/wedges will prevent most of those. All of the above can be flipped around for long opportunites, of course. Best Wishes, Thales

Did I leave out the part of re-entering on new lows? Best Wishes, Thales

Brownie, what have you started?! I read your post the other day, and thought I'd check out the action on crude. I have since decided that when my daughter starts trading her futures account this coming summer, she will trade currencies and crude, not the ES. I've been doing some demo trades myself. Like I said to Dinero in another thread a few weeks ago, Crude is a very well-behaved market right now. So here is my demo blotter - repeat, demo - I did not trade these with live money. Currencies and stocks are enough for me to handle. I'm treating crude as a sort of video game to play with. What liked the best is that my average trade time was 21 minutes. Anything I can make book on with such limited exposure gets my attention. Best Wishes, Thales