thalestrader

Hi DugDug, First, thank you joining us and thank you for posting your charts. One thing that may facilitate discussion of your trades would be if we could se at a glance you entry, stop, and profit targets (if any - more on this in a minute). What we have adopted here as a sort of easy to view short hand is to place a blue line at entry, red line at stop loss, and green line at profit targets. This lets any one of us see at a glance how you had planned the trade, which brings me to the subject of profit targets. If I understand your trade(s) today, you were short from two different points. It looks as though you had some good movement in your favor, and then both positions were stopped for losses. Did you have profit targets? Do you trade with targets? I am not being critical one way or the other - we each have to trade in our own way, and I am just curious if you had a profit objective in mind or not, and if not, how do you manage your stops? Have a great weekend! Best Wishes, Thales

I forgot to post the daily dollar yesterday ... this is as of yesterday's cash close, and I will post an updated chart after today's cash close of today's action. Best Wishes, Thales

Crude has traded from yesterday's high to within 13 cents of yesterday's low, and it looks like it might be getting close to time to get long of some crude. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the weekly EURUSD shows the EU about to undo in 10 weeks the price movement it took almost 30 weeks to achieve. Any rally from these levels is likely to resolve itself in a selling opportunity to test the October 2008 lows. I hope that bounce does develop, otherwise I'm going to just have to close my eyes and sell - I would hate to see this thing move down another 20 handles without me. Best Wishes, Thales

CL sure is a zippy little market, Brownie. I never realized how that thing can just roll thrrough ticks like it does. Its like trading the 6E during a news release, but it seems for CL, the quick ticking keeps right on rolling. I see a lot intraday gaps on the tick chart as well. They usually fill immediately, but I see many times where atrade will take place at, for example, 73.28, and the next print is 73.18, but price quickly rolls the dime and ends back at 73.28, even if for just a tick. Best Wishes, Thales

I read so many posts where folks deny the existence of gaps - if you read the gap out of price action, then presumably there is no open/close. I would imagine that those who refuse to cede gaps their due would therefore not pay attention at all to the concept of opening range, correct? I am just asking, not criticizing one way or the other (though I do believe in gaps). Best Wishes, Thales

Sorry, DugDug, but this is it. There is a scattering here at TL. I only have one post elsewhere and that was to ask about changing forex brokers back when I was starting with my daughter's trading. Otherwise, everything is in this thread. I have considered putting together a sort of uberpost summarizing some of the more important things I lok at, and then asking James or one of the mods could slip it into a first post position, but I have to write it out first, and I just haven't had the time. Someday and soon, I will put together a summary. However, I kow this has become a "bloated thread," but there is a lot of good stuff in here, not just from me, from many of the thread's participants. So I encourage you to try to slug your way through it over time. I know I have learned alot myself from this thread. Best Wishes, Thales PS I thought maybe daedalus would write the book - if so, daedalus, I promise to be the first to buy it off the presses.

Also, the first entry was far to premature for the expectations I set for the trade. I knew as much to expect at least one new low. The second entry was too late to initiate the position (or at least not as favorable a position as I would have liked. The ideal buy point, had I been following properly, would have been a buy stop 125.35 or 125.65. Had I been paying attention, rather than slacking off sleeping, I would have liked to have bought at 125.35, added at 125.65, and raised the stop to 125.80 on the break above 126.25. So, the results so far have more, in fact, everything to do with poor execution of plan on my part than on the plan itself. For what its worth, my daughter told me to do just as you said I should do on the first trade - stop and reverse. But, I guess it just didn't matter enough to me. Perhaps I shall have to take this more seriously, and only initiate positions when I can do so as I would do in an account that mattered to me. In other words, I guess I should trade it as though my equity depends upon it, and not as though its just a $25 chip I found on the casino floor for a free drop in the slots. Best Wishes, Thales

Well I've been out for the last two hours, and I am happy to see I am no longer in that EURJPY long. I have enough left for one more whack before I'd have to pony up another $25 to sit at the craps table at FXCMarkets. It really does have an October 2008 feel about things right now. Might be close to time to put the bull suit back in the closet and put both arms back n the bear suit. Best Wishes, Thales

Again ... no volume, no stochastics, MACD's, "value ranges" (I still have no idea what that means) etc. Just support, resistance, highs and lows, add in some trend lines and an eye for beauty (i.e. proper proportion between swings) and this gets very easy. Now, the question on my mind is this: Did Jonbig buy that low in the ES? It's up almost 20 points from that trend line tap, which should be way more than the 6R he requires because I would assume that a 2 point stop would have been more than enough. Best Wishes, Thales

Here is the EURGBP 4 hour chart - price broke below what I had as anticipated to be support. Price then rallied up to that support, tested it as resistance, fell back into a a higher low, and we now have a completed long sequence. At least this morning, the relative out performance of by the Euro over the Pound has been quite pronounced. Perhaps this is the trend change to stronger EURO/ Weaker Pound ... price will tell... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Here is the EURJPY currently. Buy stop at 126.27 I have in my little micro account. I also made some notes. The small ellipses shows where I went long yesterday. Not a bad play, and given the time of the day, managed according to my normal rules, I'd have been out with anywhere between +5 and +20 ticks. But, it would seem I committed a fatal error - I mixed degrees. I tried to play it cute and get an early jump on a rally, even though looking at the chart, I clearly saw that price had not done the sort of work out of which bottoms are hammered out. The larger ellipses encompasses a very nice basing pattern. This does not mean we have the bottom, only that we had a bottom that could support a rally of several hundred ticks or more if price wishes to try such a thing. I did just get long the EURJPY on the break out (actual fill 126.288 on a 126.27 buy stop - not bad slippage considering I was filled just as the news releases were coming out. Note, this was not a "news" trade. I actually had not even considered the time. I saw that the short opportunity was not going to trigger and that an upside breakout was more likely, so I placed the order. This was based upon what price was indicating, and not a guess as to the news (I still have no idea what the news was - I trade with no news fed and no TV and no news radio). I am going to hold this with a stop below the consolidation area (stop 125.80). Still not ideal, but that is below the last four hour low, and I was sleeping when I should have been placing a buy stop down around 125.60. Below is the open position window. I did add a limit order 129.45after I took the screen shot, and I did erase the account number. Best Wishes, Thales

I'll post a chart in a few minutes but the EURJPY looks like a good upside continuation break out is on the way with a buy point above 126.25 (current 126.17). Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Dug Dug, Good stuff. I too agree - scaling out, which I do, does sem to do more to help from a psychological and emotional pperspective than it does an equity perspective. You are free to start a thread, of course, but I want you to know that discussions of this sort are very much welcome in this thread. In fact, I wish there'd be more discussion by those who do an all in/all out or a pyramiding approach to money/trade management here. Either way, thank you for for bringing this up; and for the Joe Ross coments as well. Best Wishes, Thales

Well, I was right in that the EURJPY had at least one more push lower before making a more sizable rally. I should have been more patient. At any rate, here is the current EURJPY ... Best Wishes, Thales

I'd have preferred this to happen during US Cash market hours, but we did get the touch and dance. Now, we wait and see if it sticks. Best Wishes, Thales

I do believe that ES does a dance off of that descending trend line before it mounts a rally. I have long term support on the Cash between 1052-1068, so we're getting close, I would think. But the longer it takes, the farther down that trendline touch will occur, if it occurs at all. Best Wishes, Thales

I would agree with you Jon, in that I could make a case for either. Now, here's a funny thing. I was watching during your first entry, but I didn't take it (I think your chart is a fie minute, and I watch a 15 minute, but the entry was there just the same). I wish I could tell you why I didn't take it. I normally would have tried it. I think the reason I did not was that I had been snookered by an earlier short try, and I was just willing to be more cautious and wait for a larger wave to start swinging (two very nice entries presented themselves today in my opinion and I marked them on the attached chart). Interestingly, you would probably think you were being more cautious because you try to play entries where you can have a tightr stop, whereas I would consider myself to be more cautious as I am waiting for entries that confirm weakness (for shorts) or strengther (for longs), albeit with a larger initial stop. Of course, I rarely allow a day trade go full stop on me. You might be surprised how often price would allow you to play a larger swing for an entry, and still give you the ability to keep your stops close (though maybe not quite as close as you play them now). As for you becoming more "dynamic," as you put it, do so slowly and with caution. I think you have shown yourself to very disciplined and patient (certainly more so than I am at times). You seem to know yourself better than most. Keep using what you know. Right now you seem to have adapted your trading to yourself. What you are suggesting is a change to your trading that seems at odds with the kind of person you know yourself to be. Having said that, I have often found that taking two swings at the same entry has worked, i.e. I enter, take a small loss, enter agian, and I get my 2-3R or more. I hope that helps. Best Wishes, Thales

I do not know why you exited where you did. The closest thing to a "lower high" occurred after ou were already stopped out, and it looks as though had you moved your stop to below the low of the pullback that shook you out, you'd have been safe, right? That is assuming i am looking at it correctly. Your small TF chart (a single tick chart?) is no good on ,my eyes. I am more concerned with those cases where, as you put it, I am "nic'd" into a trade. In this case, price did what you had hoped - it rallied through your buy point. Now you have to allow it do breath and pullback to test the buy point if it so desires. Do you see the difference? A trade that tick's you in and goes no where is much different behavior from a trade that carries beyond your entry and then comes back to test the entry. I have another comment: you have on one of your charts something to the effect that price doesn't look "wedgey." There is no such thing as "wedginess." Price either forms a wedge or it does not form a wedge. A wedge is obvious. If you have to ask yourself, "Is this a wedge?" then it probably is not a wedge. Also, when I look for the "three pushes" or "three drives," I do not want to see such wide and sloppy PA as we have here. There should be a symmetry between the waves down and up, down and up, and into the final wave down. Symmetry does not mean equality, but it does imply proportionality. In fact, I usually do not refer to this asthree pushes, as I am more interested in what Blowfish calls a rising or falling wedge or what I would call an ending diagonal. Look at patrader's many fine examples of various wedges. I think he and I would be on the same page in that the three drives should resemble a hinge that is either downward or upwaard sloping. What you have is what is sometimes referred to as a broadening formation. O'Neil calls it wide and loose. I call it sloppy. Call it what you will, it is a very unreliable indicator of what to expect next. I hope that helps. Best Wishes, Thales

Operation Insane Rodeo Clown (OIRC) Sure, Midk, thanks for the reminder. I have decided to open up the micro platform and take the long EURJPY. as per my post above: Long at 125.57, stop loss 125.07, profit target 129.45. I'm trading Jonbig style, all in/all out, though I will trail a stop at a point behind the 61.8% retracement of the entire move higher if the trade trends positive (I have a friend who does this to great effect, so I figured I'd pirate it for this experiment). For the record, this is a small account. Very small. When I told my daughter a few weeks back that I was going to try to do what she had done, she told me that it wasn't fair that she had started with only $25 but I was starting with $300 (I know, it's hard to believe a nine year old would really say "Hey! That's not fair!"). My wife agreed (also hard to believe, right?), so I had to draw out the excess and start at my daughter's level. I had done a small trade or two, so my actual starting balance as of today was $26.90 I think. For this trade, I'm trading at 2 dimes/pip, so my risk is $11.16 (how's that for crazy rodeo clown leverage?!) and my profit target, if achieved, will yield $86.22. I'm still thinking that I'm early and that the EURJPY needs one more push down into the 124.37 level or so, but hey, I have to start somewhere. The money is not important, however. This is about keeping score by scoring ticks. So this trade has a 50 tick risk and a 388 tick profit target. I'll update here in the thread when 1) I adjust the stop loss and 2) When I get stopped out and 3) at the end of each week until I blow up. Below is a screen shot of the open position window and the Ninjatrader chart I posted earlier. Giddy Up! Best Wishes, Thales

I still think the ES needs one more wave down before it gets any substantial rally, and this scenario would look very pretty. Of course, anything can happen, and this really is but a day dream. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, A few ticks late to snap a pic and post this EURJPY long. I put the targets on that I would use. However, given where the EURJPY is with respect to its larger trading range, this may be an entry that offers an opportunity to play for much larger targets. Even if an over all downtrend from the 2007 highs is reasserting itself, it would not be unreasonable to try to play for, say, a 50% retracement of its most recent down leg as viewed on the 240 minute chart. My only reservation is that the decline looks to need one more low to look complete to me. Of course, given the extent of the decline, that low may be subsequent to a 1/3 - 2/3 retracement rather than preceding the retracment. But, again, it is that for which we use a stop loss, right? After all, if we knew for sure what price was going to do, there'd be no need for us to talk about it. We'd just buy low and sell high time after time. Best Wishes, Thales

...or not ... Best Wishes, Thales

I do not mean to answer for patrader, but, I am assuming the "pa" stands for "price action" trader, though perhaps it means something else, e.g. Pennsylvania trader, etc. I know some would argue otherwise, but what does a "value range" have to do with S/R? What makes a stopping point made on diminishing volume any less relevant than one accompanied by a volume spike. People can go on about supply and demand and value, but in the end the only thing you need to consider is where did price stop when it was going up, and where did the decline stop on the way down. Here is the ES chart with the resistance zone in red that I posted last night, and a new pic showing what has transpired since. I used no notion of a "value range" in determining where resistance would likely be found. I do not not even know, quite frankly, what is meant byy the phrase "value range." And I have not looked at volume in many years as consideration on any time frame less than a daily bar chart. You only need to look at where price has been, and where has it been stopped. Pa trader has a very simple, yet I think incredibly clever approach to using these stopping points to trade. I may be wrong, but I would be surprised if volume or "value range" are considered at all. I see so many folks posting all these arcane and (in my opinion) misguided attempts to use anything to tell them how to make money in the markets except the one thing that will actually let them do so easily - PRICE itself! Look at that chart of the ES. Anyone who saw that chart when I first posted could have used to make money. Now, in this case, the decline has not been of great extent, and for all we know, it may be over. But, if you sold price in the upper half of that range, you could close your position for a decent profit right now. Now, go look at most of the charts posted here at TL over the last 24 hours. How many of them could have made you any money? How many were posted a head of time so you know that the poster actually saw the opportunity before him or her? Outside of this thread, you will not find many, if any at all. Best Wishes, Thales

No, not really. It just went dead and sat there for a minute or two with me at -2, so I moved my stop to -3. Why take chances in a dead market? At any rate, we did get new high, so I would prefer to wait until we made a go into the resistance zone seen here. Best Wishes, Thales