thalestrader

Crude didn't give me a chance to snap this pic before pulling back quickly. I wanted to point out that Crude traded to session highs shortly before the pit session opened. It pulled back to about 73.20 immediately following the pit session open, and then rallied back to the pre-pit high. I wanted to say that that would be a decent low risk spot to sell crude with a tight stop. That doesn't mean that the drop is going to continue, and that you can hold a short for 100 ticks or more. It was just to show crude responds to globex highs during pit hours. Best Wishes, Thales

But, when followed by something like this, it usually means I am too early, and I should close the position as close to BE as I can wait for further indication. Best Wishes, Thales

Here you go: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/how-post-chart-properly-805.html Best Wishes, Thales

Something like that ... Best Wishes, Thales

That might fly in a freshman economics 101 course, but it won't last an hour on a working farm. A farmer does have fixed costs. A farmer will at times have no choice but to sell below cost, and all farmers would have the financial statements to prove it to be so. Recovering some capital is better than a loss of all capital. Ask any farmer who hedges if he has ever hedged to lock in a loss so as to avoid a much larger loss rather than to lock in profits. Corn may not go to zero, but it sure feels like it has at times. Ask any farmer, he'll tell you. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the ES ... I have no position - the trade lines (blue/red/green) where placed last night before I shut down, but I did not actually place the buy stop, and I am just taking notes ES is at a level at which I am looking for sell indications, That doesn't mean we get them, but I am looking for them. Best Wishes, Thales

Closest thing I see to an opportunity at the moment is a short on the EURGBP, but while I'd be interest in trading this pair for swing trade, I do not trade it for small moves. But, it looks to be presenting to us that it is considering a pause in the show it has put on since striking its low last week. Best Wishes, Thales

Or can I? Look at it this way: If you had, say, $10,000,000 in cash in various accounts, and if you knew that over time 90%+ of your trades were either a 1R profit or breakeven, and that of the 10% losses the average was .23R, do you think you could start a 5K trading account, trade it at an insanely higher risk level than would typically be recommended to avoid ruin, and be able to afford to lose it all? Sure. Because you are unlikely to lose it all to begin with, and if you do, you open your wallet, and another 5K falls out for you to replenish the account. Now, could I afford to have my daughter or myself blow out a $25 account? Well, I do not have anything close to 10,000,000, but I did buy more that $25 worth of Girl Scout cookies yesterday. If I can blow $25 on cookies, I can blow $25 in a bucket shop. And I can probably afford to do it over and over again. The only thing I did wrong was that I abandoned the way I trade last week, Had I traded that little micro account as I usually would trade, the balance would be higher than it had started rather than lower. Its funny that this conversation comes up with the arrival of ST from ET. He showed up last year at ET claiming to use a money management approach to day trading the ES that enabled him to double his money every few days. My currency trading friend directed me to his thread, and I was ready to watch not because I did not believe him, but because I did believe him, I know it can be done. Unfortunately, it was ET, and so the trolls were all over him before he could even get started, and in his case it looks as though the trolls where right he was nothing but a fraud, and possibly a drunken one, as he posted but one or two trades and spent the rest of his time spewing insults at the trolls. At any rate, someone learning to trade a small account with limited resources ought to adhere to sound money management principles. Once you know what you are doing and what to expect from your trading, you can, as my currency trading friend says, "afford to have a little fun." He, for example, as a microlot account that he calls his "Sandbox." He plays in it, He routinely runs it from $250 to $8-10K and then blows it up and adds another $250. So what? His serious trades are done in his futures account, and he averages a solid 200+ticks/week profit, and he is trading decent size. He has a right play in a Sandbox if he wishes, and so do I. In the end, it comes down to a matter of responsibility: Would I trade my last $5000 in a Sandbox? No way! But, if I want to "have a little fun," that's what I'm going to do. Best Wishes, Thales

I thought you were doubling your bankroll on the ES every few days or so. At least that is what you were claiming over at ET awhile back. Why would you ever consider going to a bucket shop if that were the case? Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I am having trouble with Ninjatrader. I had some notes and details on the EURUSD chart and before I could snap a shot Ninjacrashed and of course, when I restarted it, all the new notes were gone. I was trying to explain the 6E short in relation to the spot EURUSD and the "3 pushes" that patrader and others have shown throughout the thread. I do not have it in me to re-do the chart. Suffice it to say that I expected a quick drop to the trendline shown here, and when that did not materialize, I quickly put my stop to break even. Best Wishes, Thales

FXCM opens for trading before Globex opens for 6E. The spot was trading for at least an hour before Globex opened. Also, when you track bucket shop to bucket shop you will find that there will be small differences between their data feeds. Best Wishes, Thales

Changed my mind and decided I'd feel fine putting on the bear suit - here is my position: Short at 1.3866 - sorry for the late post, but price is still within 7 ticks of entry - lots for me to watch right now so no chart. Be watching for 3 drives down for bounce, and targets TBD, but I'll hold some for 1.3740. Be back soon. Best Wishes, Thales 8:51 6E 59/61 - SL at 66 8:56 SL 66, filled 65, current 68/69

EURUSD certainly not a convincing move. I wouldn't comfortable with being short or long at this point, and I would rather wait for a more clear indication of the market's intentions. The pattern had me expecting a decent rally, so a break to new lows could carry down to that March 2009 high rather quickly - Not predicting, just thinking out loud. But if I had to predict, I'd be predicting 1.3740 by the time NY opens if the EURUSD breaks and holds below 1.3850. But I'm not predicting. I Pulled the rip cord on the 6J, and will wait for the next opportunity. If you were to pull up a 1 minute chart you can probably figure out where the rip cord got yanked. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the 6J (JPYUSD futures) which trade inversely to the USDJPY spot pair ... Best Wishes, Thales

Sounds real-time to me ... I look at monthly charts at the beginning of each month to re-introduce myself to the larger picture. Prep work is an integral part of making decisions to risk your money in real time. Post away, MIdK! Best Wishes, Thales

Came and went? Or just getting warmed up? EU's has taken quite a beating since December. It almost deserves a chance to stand up and catch its breath before taking the knock out punch. Best Wishes, Thales

Here comes the EURUSD ... maybe ... Best Wishes, Thales

I liked the animated ones, but every time I would try to read the thread, I felt a stroke coming on, so I went to the stationary avatar. Thanks for your help. Best Wishes, Thales

Currrent look at the EURUSD: The March and April '09 highs may provide a pause in this sell off, but the fact that so much has been retraced so quickly implies that one should be on the alert for a test of the October, 2008 lows. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the monthly EURJPY has a different picture. Price has broken below a nearly 12 month long sideways range, and has what Mike Reed calls a "Slinky Set Up," where price falls hard, bounces, and rolls over like a slinky going down a set of stairs. A sizable decline from here, perhaps after price rallies to kiss the lower range good bye, seems likely. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the monthly USDJPY shows price falling back after trying to poke through that descending upper trend line, I still think this looks as though it is in the final stages of the down trend, and a break and hold above that trendline should auger a multi-month rally in the Buck against the Yen. Best Wishes, Thales

No problem. I'm an old school reader myself and I prefer actually to hold the hard copy in my hand. But having an electronic copy handy is nice to have. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi DugDug, Trying to gain an early entry on a daily time frame opportunity using a 5 minute chart is mixing two entirely different degrees of trend. I have been burned recently trying to use a 15 minute to give me an early jump on a 240 minute opportunity in another market. As Marko has often said elsewhere - it is usually a fatal flaw in a planned trade to mix degrees. If a five minute gets you in, the five minute has to get you out. I took the liberty of marking up two charts showing price action throughout your trade. In the first chart, I used a 15 minute of the ZN to show your entry. The 5 minute and the 15 minute both give me the same short entry. I would have scaled out in two stages and thus flat before the trend turned. Where I mark the trend turn, that also would have been a long entry for me on the 15 minute, and you 5 minute indicated such as well, though not as cleanly as the 15 minute. Even had my plan been to short and trail hoping for a runner, I would have been stopped no later than that long entry point. I have a friend who trades notes and bonds only. He trades off the 5 and 15 minute time frame, and he does not trade for targets. He trails every trade. I applied an ATR-type stop using his settings to the ZN. Interestingly, using a natural stop to trail would have taken you out at nearly the same point as his volatility stop. So, what's my point? At any point, price is either going to continue or reverse, that is all it can do. Yes, it can go sideways, but that is really just resting while it decides whether it is going to continue or reverse. The big profits come when you trail a continuing trend. But you need to make sure that you do not mistake a trend visible on the 5 minute chart for anything more than that - after all, on a daily chart, that nice short trade you let run back for a loss is a pretty bullish bar! Your short has been erased. One issue that the trader needs to resolve for him or herself is that one must decide what kind of trader he or she is. I am not, for example, very good at trailing these markets when day trading. So I use targets. If I do happen to catch a strong draft, I will lift my targets, and add further to a position. But that is not a daily occurrence. You, on the other hand, may be the type who likes to trail for the potential trend day. If so, that's great. And here is the point I wanted to illustrate with the charts above: If you are going to use a trailing stop to catch lasting trends (whether "lasting" means for an hour or months) you still need a mechanism that either lets you recognize when the tide has turned against you, or one that does it for you. Otherwise, though you may be in for the three or four big trend days of the month, you will give too much back during the other 16-17 days when price does the range and whip. Excellent topic for a thread, by the way! (I hope I managed to stay on topic) Best Wishes,

This was a great series of posts from EMNQ on Friday that I had missed: Here is a 1 minute ES that shows where price was at the corresponding time stamps of his posts. Whether he traded it or not, there is no arguing with that being an excellent and accurate read of price action publicly demonstrated in real time. Great series of posts EMNQ! My only criticism is that I would have liked to have seen the blue entry, red stop loss, and green target lines included in the pics as well. I probably missed the posts in real time because if I do not see trade lines I tend to scroll on by and come back later when I see what I have missed. But nonetheless a good series of posts. Best Wishes, Thales

I like that better than the "battlefield" version. Best Wishes, Thales