thalestrader

For example, should entry trigger without price trading higher than the level shown by the red line here, that would be the stop loss (-28 ticks), and the profit target is +100 ticks. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the EURUSD/6E on the 60 minute, with a trendline whioch could make this a tricky entry in need of quick fingers on the rip cord. Stop loss as shown would be lowered immediately to one tick above the current little bounce from the entry point upon entry. Position size will be set to a smaller number of ticks risk than shown... Best Wishes, Thales

And this is one of those times where the coin seems balanced on its edge and we have to wait to see which side is facing us when it falls. Best Wishes, Thales

I know its not ... I was just giving you a reminder. I understand what you mean about deviating from your plan, but you should take heart that you did get back on track, and that once you did get back to plan, your positive results outstripped the damage the earlier mistakes had caused. Best Wishes, Thales

The dollar did not make new uptrend highs, nor did the Euro make new downtrend lows. It looks, at the very least, that the correction of the prevailing trends that was suspected a few days ago is indeed occurring. 78.45 to 76.60 remains the targeted support zone for the dollar index if this pullback continues, and if this is merely a pullback. However, another possibility is that the rally off the November 2009 low was itself a correction against the larger down trend off the March 2009 high, and that the down trend is ready to resume. Supporting this possibility is that the rally has retraced just over 50% of the downtrend, and the rally can be counted as three waves (an ABC correction) and A=C more or less (C fell short of A by a mere 14 ticks). I would expect Euro strength, dollar weakness over the coming days/weeks. Should 76.60 break and hold to the downside, I would anticipate that the odds increase that the entire November-February rally is retraced, and perhaps a new down leg targeting lower downtrend lows is underway. Certainly an interesting time to be trading currencies! Best Wishes, Thales

Looking at the Dow daily, I was somewhat surprised to find a pattern not unlike what is commonly referred to as a bull flag ... It's not a perfect bull flag. Certainly not text book - for one thing, I'd have liked to have seen fewer days with rising volume on falling prices. I'd have preferred to have seen "tighter closes" and more range contraction during the decline. But, nonetheless, it looks more like a bullish pause than a bearish reversal. For those who like to refer to volume (while I have not found volume to be helpful to me intraday, I do find it useful on daily time frames and higher), we can see that Friday price rose on volume higher than the preceding session, Monday's decline came on shrinking volume, and today's rally came on higher volume than that which accompanied Monday's decline. I'm almost ready to believe that the correction, such as it has been, may be very close to "such as it was ..." It almost looks like this thing is, at the very least, contemplating a resumption of its uptrend. Of course, it can only be said that it is contemplating such a move. The real test is this - does it break out and hold above the descending channel, aka bull flag, or does it drop out of the bottom of it? We'll just have to wait and see. I'm not making a call, just noting possibilities that exist based upon current price action. And while I know the economic fundamentals are terrible, I am, thankfully, a trader, and not an economist. So, while dismal prognosticators basing their opinions upon fundamentals from the dismal science seem everywhere, I have to say that the possibility exists for a more bullish immediate future. It's possible. However improbable it seems, it is possible. Best Wishes, Thales

And here is how Crude played out - quite a bit more sloppy than I would have anticipated, but once it broke the upper dotted line, it was a (mostly) rally day for Crude. Best Wishes, Thales

Any day I find myself down by a nearly 2 grand and finish positive is hardly what I would call a "crappy" day. Be a "half full," not a "half empty" kind of guy, dinero. Best Wishes, Thales

So what you are asking is how does is become determinative of trend and trend stregth so as to know when do ascending minimums reach their maximum extensionality so as to allow the trader proximally to identify said eventuality, to wit that the descedning maximums have not been confused with the minimalizing ascensions while true but without regard to ... Friend, if you are new to options (sounds as though you are new to trading, may I suggest first of all that you learn to trade options in a purely direction basis and only from the long side, i.e. be long of calls if you are betting on higher prices and be long of puts if your are betting on lower prices. If you are new to trading, may I also suggest that you open an account with a good discount stock broker, deposit no more than 5K, and trade shares, not options. Trade 10 lots, not round lots. Take it slow and easy. If you cannot trade 10 lots profitably, you will not be able to trade options profitably. Your capital per trade will still be small, as it would be if you had bought an option, but whereas your option will go to zero if it expire out of the money, most likely your 10 shares, barring bankruptcy, will still retain most of their value. For example, suppose you thought that Caterpillar (CAT) shares were going to be higher in May than they are right now. Right now you can buy 10 shares of CAT for 537.90 + commish, or 53.79/share. Or, you could buy the May 52.50 call for $475 + commish. If you are correct, and CAT is trading at, say $70 anytime between now and May, your profit will be $1275 on the option, and only $162.10 on a 10 lot purchase. That is why folks want to trade options,and that is why you were willing to buy whatever options course you purchased, right? However, suppose you are wrong, and rather than rising to $70/share, CAT shares instead lose 50% of their value, and becasue you kept hoping that it would come back, you held onto your option all the way to May expiration. Now, you have a loss of $475 on the option - you lost the entire amount you paid as premium for that option. However, you are able to liquidate your long 10 shares of stock for $268.95. You see, there is typically less risk in owning shares than in trading options, though that is never the way it is presented by the sellers of options course. They have you focused on potential profits. You need instead to focus upon potential losses. Learn to lose small first. Yes, that means you will also win smaller than you are currently dreaming, but let's face it, unless you first learn how to lose, you will never, ever, ever win consistently anyway. As far as your trend questions, I would suggest you read the newest editions of William O'Neil's How to Make Money in Stocks, find an old edition (pre-ninth) of Edwards and Magee's Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, and the technical analysis chapters of Victor Sperandeo's Trader Vic 1 and 2. I would also advise you to read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and Nicolas Darvas's How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market. You might also find some useful information here at TL - you might want to try this post: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/208/reading-charts-real-time-6151-84.html#post79635 I wish you well. Best Wishes, Thales Seriously,

I do not think he is a scam. His approach is worth studying if you are still without an approach that works for you. I, like Sevensa, have bought information that I would gladly pay for again (I gave as examples Linda Raschke and George Lane). I do not think $995 is an exorbitant amount to charge, especially if follow up were included (I'd probably charge 5 times than much just to give some of the folks here at TL my personal email address for all the headaches I'm sure they'd give me). My point above was that RA was far too heavy handed in his self-promotion. I do not think he is simply a "crusty old trader" who doesn't care about teaching ... of course he does, or else why else mention his monthly seminar and its attendant fee? My guess is that he does know how to trade. Whether he still trades or not, or whether he is still able to trade well or not, I do not know (I have known a few over the years who know how to trade, and who at one time could trade, but have since lost their nerve and are no longer able to trade, though they know what they have to do to do it well). So whether he trades or not, RA certainly is interested in teaching (though, apparently, not "sharing") his method. Best Wishes, Thales

Whatever you decide as far as your approach to planning and managing your trades, the most important thing is going to be to do it consistently. I typically will not take a trade if PT1 is not 1:1 with my initial risk. If it is close, I may still take the trade, but it has to be real close, within a tick or two. There are too many opportunities to take inferior trades. I would say this about that particular trade - you have to let the chart, and not your desired R/R dictate your profit targets and stops. It happened that the 1.618 corresponded to a reasonable chart point at which one might have expected support. Actual S/R, i.e. actual chart points where price stopped and reversed at some time in the past, always, always, always, trumps fibs, floor pivots, TTT (Taylor Trading Technique) levels, Elliot Wave counts, etc. and so on. It certainly trumps whatever you or I want as far as a profit on a trade. I think that if you did not take some profit at that level, then at the very least you were justified in moving your stop loss to break even as you did. In the end, each of us has to determine for him or herself what our risk profile will look like. But you must trade the chart, not your desired R/R. If you want 2R, but between your entry and a 2R profit is stif resistance at a .9-1.3R level, trade accordingly. That des not mean you have to settle for .9R or 1R or 1.3R on that trade. But you should take measures to reduce your risk in the trade once price trades to and meets with resistance. But, then again, that is me. There are others who will stand their ground come what may. Neither is right or wrong. I suspect that those who hold their ground will realize a higher profit over time than someone like me who is quick to move a stop and trail it tight. The trade off is that the former will have a lower win/loss percentage, greater draw downs, and a less smooth equity curve. None of which is bad in and of itself. Jonbig who needs a legitimate 6R target before he even entertains the a trade opportunity will not need a 60%+ win rate. He would likely blow me out of the water even he only achieves a 33% win rate given the size of his targets relative to his risk. Take this month to date, for example. These are my actual numbers for my futures trading through today (seven trade days): my futures trades have exactly a 60% win rate, and my average win is 1.44R. My average loss is .73R, and I am up 12.26R for the month. I am pleased with my MTD. Now, if someone were trading with a 33% win rate, with a 1.44R average win, there would be no joy in Mudville, as such a trader would be just under break even if losses were cut at .73R. If all losses were held to full stop, with a 33% win rate, you'd be broke within a year or less. The important thing is to decide which way you are going to plan and manage your trades, and then do it consistently. You cannot be Thales one day and Jonbig the next and expect to do well. You must be one or the other or something in between or something completely different, but whatever you choose, you must be it consistently. And having decided, you must exercise your plan according to the market, and not expect the market to trade according to your plan. Best Wishes, Thales

What a day! Here's word of advice I've not had occasion to recall since starting this thread: When an unusual move starts at a time of day when such moves are typically the last thing that happens, go with it. Best Wishes, Thales

Most likely, any trending will require crude to break through the gravitaional pull of the crrent range identified by the dotted blue lines. Best Wishes, Thales

I don't think there is anything wrong with your English. I just was not able to get my imagination to conjure up the proper visual image for me to understand what you were describing. The best trades in the currencies tend to work right away, with very little pullback, which is why I am so quick to go to break even typically. So waiting for a pullback may be something that happens more when the trae is destined to be a loss. I do think it is worth testing out, however. Best Wishes, Thales

I see that you found it ... That would look good on a post-it note or an index card taped to the side of your monitor or beside your laptop on your desk. Best Wishes, Thales

Sort of like yesterday, only different ... Reminds me of a very good post that Kiwi made here some time ago. When you are looking at a short, ask yourself what would have to occur for you to change your mind and go long. If looking to go long, what is the case for a short? You might find that this little exercise, as a sort of "pre-flight" check when you are looking at an opportunity, might help you in these situations. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at Crude shows it to be again at what should be a critical juncture, as it vacillates on either side ot the 72.4x level...could go either way, but whichever way it decides, it should trend away from that level ... Best Wishes, Thales

Did you see the short? An opportunity very much similar to the EURUSD posted above. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the 6E/EURUSD ... I was expecting one more attempt at a high/higher high, but it is what it is. We could still get a higher high, but that's what the stop loss is there for to protect us. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Marko, I still do not think I am following you, and I apologize for being thick-headed this morning. Here is my chart showing that my entry on that long would have been 1.3711. Where would you have placed your entry order? Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Marko, I want to make sure I understand what you are doing with the modified entry. You are waiting for the trade to trigger as usual, and then you are entering on a limit order placed at he 50% retracement of that particular bar, +1 tick, and by one tick, you mean on the breakout side of the breakout bar? Best Wishes, Thales

Short at 1.5592, stop loss at 1.5608, target to be determined ... If I'm not stopped out between now and breakfast, we'll see where we are in the morning. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the 6B ... Best Wishes, Thales

Rather than continue a correction against the current uptrend, the buck consolidated its gains at/near the higs of this rally off the November low. Should the dollar make a higher high (EURUSD lower low) I'd expect the dollar index to make a play for the next target, wihich is in the vicinity of 82.00. With respect to the 6e, I will be looking for potential shorts, with possible trend down day implications over the coming day(s). Best Wishes, Thales

I agree, and I MidK's suggestion should be given serious consideration. When I was really started to make good progress, it occurred when I was trading the ER2 only. It is much easier to learn the craft if you are concentrating your efforts on one market. Even my daughter came to focus almost entirely on the EURJPY. She moved in that direction on her own. Best Wishes, Thales