thalestrader

Stopped out of CL, now short 6E at 1.3649 and stop loss is -3 ticks or -1/5R ... Best Wishes, Thales

Here is a 5 minute CL just to show that price pulled back to the 2/24 high, and bounced, and I have moved my stop to 80.44, which will be +38 demo, +43 in real life ... Best Wishes, Thales

In real life I bought CL at 80.01, and my real life stop loss is currently 79.99. For the purpose of this demo and for my own inquiring mind, I am going to trail this with what I consider natural stops, should any develop between now and the time I shut down for the night. Profit target is 81.24 in real life and for the sake of this demo trade. Best Wishes, Thales

I had a sell limit on the 6E at 1.3645, high tick was 1.3646, but I did not get filled either in the demo account or in real life. I thought I was in there early enough, but I couldn't even get a partial. Frustrating, but it does happen occasionally, especially early hours of the new week ... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Current look at CL in the Ninjademo with a long at the break above Friday's high ... we'll see what Crude is capable of on a sleepy Sunday evening. Best Wishes, Thales

My DOM does not moark off the "local" or "recent" highs/low. I just watch the dancing price. You could do this watching a chart as well (I can do it whether I'm watching a daily bar chart at the time of entry or a single tick chart).The reason I like to watch the DOM at these moments is I can get a sense from the "dance" of whether I am on the right side or not. That "sense" comes from a lot of watching. It is difficult for me to find words to explain what I'm looking for other than to say that just as charts show patterns that repeat over time across markets and timeframes, so does the manner of price movement on a dancing DOM. My "internal timeframe" for this is best described as "the moment at hand." If I am selling against resistance, I am looking for the first, most minute 123 - yesterday, for example, on the 6E, price traded to 1.3651 (anticipated resistance) dropped back to 1.3647 or so, scurried up to 1.3650, failed to even print at 1.3651, and then dropped below 1.3647 - a 123 of very small degree, but a 123 nonetheless. Sometimes I will actually have a limit order resting in the market, and in those cases, once filled, I'll be waiting for the first pause at a high (if I am short), and then I watch to see whether price is going to put in a 123 in my favor, or if price is going to pull back a few ticks and then move higher, in which case I will usually go flat and sell higher. Best Wishes, Thales

I think one 5K account is plenty to start. I have a freind who for years has started each month with 8K in his account, He withdraws everything above 8K on the last day of the month. His monthly loss limit is 6K. If he is ever down 6K, he has his broker set up to shut him down until the first of the following month and only after he refunds his account up to 8K. He routinely makes 8-24K each month. And he starts the month trading 3 lots, not a fully levered 16. Best Wishes, Thales

We cut our initial risk identically. The difference in results was in managing stops to capture profit. He was not as aggressive as I, and it paid off in his favor. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi MidK, Here is a chart with some notes, and some explanations below: First and foremost is always "where is resistance?" and "where is support?" We want to sell resistance and buy breaks of resistance, we want to buy support and sell breaks of support. In this case, I used two recent pivots to define a potenital zone of resistance. Similar to your daily prep on the GBPUSD, I look for zones where I might expect sellers to get more active and zones where I might expect buyers to get more active. In addition to this reisitance zone, we had price at the mid-figure (00's are the figure and 50's the mid-figure). For whatever reason, Probably the same reason me and some of my trading friends like to use 50 and 100 ticks for profit targets) these areas tend to be S/R, when first approached during the day, e.g. see yesterday's low on the EURUSD/6E. In addition to that, I did, as you noted, have a statistical possible high based upon TTT at 1.3652. I also noted that the rally was quite choppy, with price moving in overlapping waves. Overlapping waves often, though not always, indicate that a rally (or decline) is geting a bit "long in the tooth," and is perhaps due for a pause, if not a reversal. So, I was looking for price to hit that zone, and then watched to see what happened. Once it broke 1.3651 and stuttered, fell back a few ticks, tried to push higher again and failed, I went in at the market. As for my initial stop, I use 10-20 ticks. It might be 13, sometimes 17, sometimes 15 - it depends upon where price is and how it is acting. It is usually a level set for the day and I set it in my trading platform so that if enter - whether it is a market, limit, or stop entry, I have that stop loss go in. Obviously, on the 123 entries, the initial stop is set by the higher low or lower high of the sequence. When I am selling resistance or buying support, I use a preset based upon current volatility as measured by my eye. This way I can set my number of contracts in my trading DOM and be ready to just buy/sell market if the opportunity presents itself. Once price fell from where I entered, I wait for its first minor reaction against me, and then move the stop to one tick above the high. This occurs very quickly - I'm watching the DOM. When I say the first reaction against me, it may be as little as this: I sell at market and I'm filled at 46. price drops to 43, scurries up to 47, and then falls back to 43. At that point lower my stop - often my full R risk is cut to tenths of an R within seconds of entry for these trades. It is that fast - my good friend, professional pilot, and serial lurker jands saw me do a CL trade yesterday where I sold on a limit order at 77.98 - my fill was at what was then the top tick of the swing, and within seconds I moved my stop to one tick above entry. I was up about 12 ticks on that trade when price quickly reversed and I was stopped (my PT was 30 ticks if I recall correctly). Had I not lowered my stop, my loss would have been -1R as price blasted higher, but instead, my loss was only -.12R including commision. I always am looking to cut risk to a point where if I'm stopped, I'm probably glad of it. I try to make -1R losses rare. You see, I can always sell it again if price probes resistance further and gets pushed back down. I did this yesterday with the 6E in the afternoon. I think I may have posted those trades here as well. Best Wishes, Thales

I tend to believe that you would do much better trading fewer markets. 78.22 was a key level this week, and with CL, any recent prior high/prior low can be a level at which one can look to fade or play for breakouts, though it can get a bit helter skelter at times, such as this morning. I had 12 trades today, and nine were CL because price could not figure out whether it wanted to break clean with the 78.83 or fall away from it, so I was in and out five times before the rally finally got in gear. Here is my ninja demo results from today - each of these trades, except for 5 frantic stops and reverses in CL this morning were posted in the real time thread: My daughter had a snow day today (again), and she had a blast clicking chart trader buttons as I was shouting "Buy Market" "Sell Market" "close" "reverse" (It was all I could do to get my own orders off - between CL's fluctuations above and below 78.83 and the two of us laughing so hard I had tears in my eyes and I could neither stand nor sit in my chair. At any rate, those numbers above are from trading one contract of CL and one contract of the 6E at a time. That, my friends, is trading for infinite yield. You do no need to be over leveraged to make decent money in this game (and for what its worth, though I traded some larger size in my real account on the 6E, I was only doing a one lot on CL). And you do not need to make it every day. I traded one lot for a long time, and my broker loved the fact that he made more in commish off me in a year than any ten of the guys who open accounts with him, insist on swinging 10 lots in 10 different markets, and blowing up, never to be heard from again. I remember apologizing to him one time for trading so small, and he said "no problem at all, you''re one of the few clients I have who actually makes money." If you were to focus on one or two markets only, you'd be better able to to do a thorough prep before the trading day, and be better positioned to take advantage of the opportunities that arise. One other thing, Dinero - you seem preoccupied with "per day" profitability. You do not need to make $X hundred/day. You do not need to trade every day. There are days where I sit here for 8-10 hours and I get nothing. That is how this game is. If you decide you "need" $2500/week, does it matter if you make $1800 of it on one day, then losing $300, then losing $600, then making making $0 (no trades) and then making $1600? How about this - does it matter if you are down $1000 one week, and then down $900 the next week, and then down $400 the third week before you finally start moving toward profitability again, and you finish the month up 12K? Why does it have to be $500/day? You are going to end up putting too much pressure on yourself to perform everyday with a profit. What is worse, you will condition your wife to the same expectations. What then happens when you hit your first multi-week draw down? It will not be pretty, and you will not recover. If, however, you condition yourself (and your wife) to monthly and quarterly expectations, then that first multi-week draw down, while perhaps disappointing, should at least be emotionally manageable, and you will have a shot at maintaining the poise necessary trade through it. One other thing, I do not know how much you are funding your account with, and it is none of my business and I do not care. But before you go live, decide on a fixed amount you are willing to lose before you stop trading. For example, suppose you have a 10K account (it doesn't matter whether it is 50K or 3K, let's just use 10K for the example). Decide that if you find yourself down 2K, you will stop live trading, take off one week completly without even lookng at achart, and then spend one week demo trading before going live again. And here is the thing - once you lose 2K, stop. But do not stop live trading so long as you have not hit the kill switch level. Have a loss limit. Trade live so long as it is not hit. This can be a trailing limit as well based upon closed week ending equity. If you find yourself up 6K at the end of week one, you still have a 2k kill switch, but it is 2K below your cweek ending equity close (not your equity high, your equity close). Anyway, I've watched you here for going on a year - if anyone has done the work and shown the commitment, its you. Just look at how many have come and gone from the Reading Charts and the PnL threads alone over the course of the last year. You ought to be one who makes it, so don't short circuit all of your hard work by trading too many markets and burdening yourself with a daily profit objective. And for crying out loud, get live before your son is born in May - the last thing you want to do is go live at the same time your wife is recovering and your family is adjust to a new little one. Best Wishes, Thales

Price has made no headway either way here, it is Friday, and the afternoon ... I have lowered my stop to 1.3514 which will be a +2R result, and still holding for the revised 1.3492 profit target ... Best Wishes, Thales

This is what the EURUSD/6E looks if you had shorted it at 1.3544 ... short at 1.3544, target 1.3444, stop loss is now at 1.3430, which is just a shade or two under +1R ... I don't feel like snapping off another picture, but just before posting this I decided to raise the profit target to 1.3492, and I lowered my stop to 1.3524, so if I reach target, it is just a shade under +3.5R, and if I am stopped out, it will be +1.25R ... Again, I do not trade live in Ninja, I am only using the demo chart trader function for those who seem to think that if it isn't in Ninja, it didn't happen ... Best Wishes, Thales

Stopped at 1.3652 with a smile on my face ... Best Wishes, Thales

Here is what my EURUSD/6E short looks like - short at 1.3646, stop loss is 1.3652, and I have a profit target at 1.3428. If I am not stopped out, this will be closed by end of day whether the target is reached or not. I had an initial stop at 17 ticks on the 6E short, and lowered it to the prsent -6 ticks, which makes the open risk on the trade -.35R ... I read somewhere that the EURUSD did have a 51% chance of making a high at 1.3651 today. Very sloppy thinking though, as the actual high fell short by 2 whole pips! (This thing could, of course, stop the pullback in an instant and rally 200 pips more into the close - the point is that if you know where price is with respect to S/R, its cycles, prior highs and lows, etc., you are able to take your shots with a limited and known risk, and fell good about it either way - whether you are stopped for a loss or you capture a +13R profit - which this trade will be if it gets to my target. Doubtful, but hey ... I'm taking my shots, right? This will be my last position of the week. If this is stopped at 1.3652, I am done. I may pop in to watch from time to time, but this is m last at bat for this week. Best Wishes, Thales

Stopped at 79.61 for +2.33R Best Wishes, Thales

Moving stop loss up to 79.61 ... Best Wishes, Thales

By the way, I am still just trading a one lot of CL. If I had multiple contracts, I would definitely have taken some off up here, and I'd likely have staggered stops. But, since I am one lot with this until next week, I will be willing to let it retrace back to 79.20 in my effort to see it through to 80.20 ... Best Wishes, Thales

I settled on a sell limit at 80.20, current stop loss is 79.20 ... Best Wishes, Thales

Long at 78.84 ... It pulled all the way back to .66 after a rally to 79.34. It rallied off that .66 back to 78.99, and then again pulled back to 78.85, so at this point, I am moving my stop loss to break even at 78.84. If price encounters difficulties at 79.43 - 79.60, I will exit at market. I am really looking to exit somewhere aroung 80.25. Best Wishes, Thales

It was made just up the road from me a piece. I have all Gibsons - two Les pauls and an old ES-335. But I shall dreadnought, for someday I'll go ahead and get myself a Martin as well. Welcome to the thread. Best Wishes, Thales

I routinely do this, though I do give deference to actual chart points - if a +1R stop puts me in front of a nearby support level, I'd rather have a +.8R stop beneath support, than a +1R stop out in the open. Best Wishes, Thales

If the long triggers, I do reserve the right to get short again if price runs into to trouble at 78.87-78.91 +/- and so on and so forth ... I will not likely be able to post a blow by blow if price breaks the high as decision making becomes nimble ... Best Wishes, Thales

I run my daily bars for crude to coincide with the pit open, and here is how that short looks with a stop and reverse to go long above yesterday's high ... Stop on the long, if triggered, will be the pit session low preceding the long entry, if it should trigger. Otherwise, I am short and will trail a stop ... Best Wishes, Thales

Here is what a daily CL looks like with a short at 78.77 and a stop loss at 78.84 ... Best Wishes, Thales

Great looking chart, martinguitar. Do you play a Martin? Best Wishes, Thales