thalestrader

Hi Cory, Nice trading! I especially like to see that you are consistently applying position sizing to your money management. It will serve you well. Best Wishes, Thales

I only mentioned TTT again to explain a trade about which Midk asked last week. I've used Taylor's method everyday since January of 2006 - so its been a favorite of mine for a long time. But I do not have the will or the patience to try to explain Taylor. If you want to learn his method, you are on your own. But I will give you this hint - think highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows, prior highs and prior lows, and observe how the market cycles between highs and lows, prior highs and prior lows. Also, it does take quite an effort to get through Taylor and understand him. When you get the book, do not read the publisher's forward, do not read George Angell's or Linda Raschke's essays. Ever. Just stick with studying Taylor. You will probably find that reading and re-reading the first chapter several times will speed up the process as you will eventually figure out how to read his version of English. Best Wishes, Thales

Taylor is one of those things that require an "aha" moment that probably only comes from direct struggle with the text. It isn't easy, but I think Rigel would agree with me that it is worth it. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Dinero, richbois did participate in the TTT thread here at TL and Rigel shared the links here in this thread this past weekend. I would suggest that if you are interested in TTT, you read George Douglas Taylor' original book before subscribing to richbois's thread (I'm sure richbois would agree that at least a passing familiarity, and preferably rudimentary understanding of Taylor is necessary to really benefit from richbois's TTT service). In fact, though richbois offers free trials, I'd suggest that you not burn your free trial before you try Taylor on your own. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi richbois, I have no secrets, and I've been very upfront with folks here that I subscribe to your services. I have not shared much about it here because I don't want to be selling anything for anyone and also it is hard for me to show how I use it in real time without giving away the numbers that your subscribers pay for - but if you want to share your TTT insights and how you suggest folks use it here in this thread, so long as James is ok with it, so am I. Best Wishes, Thales

You will, so long as you do not listen to and believe those who say it can't be done. Best Wishes, Thales

That is exactly what we are doing, Jon. It is far more meaningful than focusing on ticks. It also helps folks begin to think in terms of position sizing. Best Wishes, Thales

Moved stop to 78.38 to try to capture a clean buck on the trade (+6.67R) ... [i just got bounced out at 78.38, and to the tick it looks like - not a bad trade ... TTT gives odds a low of 77.07, which is just 2 pennies above the 2/25 low. However, the odds are a mere 50/50 (still not a bad guidepost) ... For example, according to TTT, we had an 85% chance of a HOD at or around 80.80, and the actual high was 80.62, which, given that I was given the information 48 hours before the open, is enough to base a plan on. Of course, TTT is merely a tool that provides landmarks that let's me see if the road map in my head is moving according to plan or not. The real basis of this trade is simply highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows, prior highs and prior lows. At any rate, I am likely done until Tokyo. Between last night and this morning, I finish the first day of March +8.9R in my Ninja demo, and a 8.45 in real life. Not a bad start to the month at all... As you can see, my win rate is just over 50% (the 6E and I had quite few little skirmishes today as I tested the waters, and on balance, 6E won - which is a real shame, by the way, and extremely poor on my part as TTT, for the record, gave me 80% odds of a HOD at 1.3654 (actual high) and a 100% chance of a LOD below 1.3496 and down to 1.3453 - very poorly played on my part) At any rate, the key take away is that though my winning % was just better than even, the average win was nearly 3.45 times the average loss, and my argets loss was a -.77R, with the average loss -.43R. That is what I consider trading for infinite yield, and that is how I can take swing after swing after swing and whether any particular trade is a winner or a loser matters not at all to me. Best Wishes, Thales

Stop is now 78.62 as I follow the dancing DOM ... +5.06R Best Wishes, Thales

Stop is now 78.92, which is a little more than +3R based upon inital risk ... strike that, stop is now 78.71,or +4.5R ... I will admit to getting very antsy here since I only traded a one lot and - had I traded size, I'd have scaled out of a few by now... Best Wishes, Thales

Here is what it would look like if you were short CL at 79.38 like I am ... Short at 79.38!? Can anyone tell me why I might want to be short there? For the record, my stop loss is now 79.07, and my profit target is 77.13 Best Wishes, Thales

Well I'm pulling for you MM, as I have been trying to buy it not too far below where you want to take profits ... Best Wishes, Thales

For the record that was a -.58R loss ... I know I was looking to buy at 1.3501 since last night, but whenever price gets that close and doesn't let me in, I move my order lower if trying to get long, or higher if trying to get short - see the short example from last night). Best Wishes, Thales

Thank you, ochie. The quote has been corrected and properly credited ... Thank you very much! Best Wishes, Thales

I still have a buy limit at 1.3501, and the LOD thus far was 1.3502 on that last push down. I'm looking for a third push down to get me long at 1.3501, and I have a -1R stop loss that will go into the market in case the next push low, should it come, becomes an impulse to the downside. Best Wishes, Thales

You took the loss at 1.3545? Best Wishes, Thales

Well played, eNQ, well played! I know you posted the entry before it triggered, but believe it or not, there are folks out there reading this thread who will say "he said he was "stalking a short, not that he was actually short ...". Thankfully most of them refrain from posting here and instead play silly on other forums. I found a nice little quote over on one such forum this weekend that I really like: "The person who says it can't be done should never interrupt the person who is doing it." As near as I have been able to determine, this is either a quote from Dale Carnegie or Benjamin Franklin (or Dale Carnegie quoting Ben Franklin?). I always say I give credit where credit is due, so if anyone can provide the actual original source, I'd appreciate it. As it is, I like it so much, I just may use it, at least temporarily, as my signature. Best Wishes, Thales

I didn't trade this one tonight but this is my typicaal manner of approaching the 6E ... I missed placing a short entry at 1.3612 on a sell stop, and then I did place a sell limit, but canceled before price retraced merely because I felt I had missed it and it was not going to retrace. At any rate, the play I'd really like for tomorrow is an opportunity to buy the 6E somewhere right around 1.3500... Best Wishes, Thales

Ok. Once I read a post I do not usually go back to look for updates. No problem, I don't expect a blow by blow, but it is nice to know risk/reward on the trade at initiation. Good Luck, Thales

If you had the order you got your price. Do you have a stop? Profit target? Chart? Best Wishes, Thales

You'll get it there, more than likely - where is your proposed stop loss? Best Wishes, Thales

Stopped at +1.25R on the 6E ... Based upon one contract traded in Ninja demo, tonight, based upon my actual initial hard stop in both of these trades, was +3.22R. My actual take based upon my actual CL entry, and after commissions, is +3.54R, which is not a bad start to the month (I consider tonight's trades to be March as I closed the book on February 26,2010). It also worth noting that in each case the actual risk was reduced to -.20R within 30 seconds of entry. Best Wishes, Thales

Stop loss is now 1.3630, or +1.25R... Best Wishes, Thales

Price nearly always tells you what the path of lest resistance is ... our job is not to fight it as it makes its way along that path. Here is what my 6E short ... stop loss is at 1.3641, which will be +1/2R (just a reminder that I do not trade using Ninja - so while I do have this position in my trading account, the position represented by Ninja's chart trader is a sim position - I am using Ninjasim for the edification of those who think the trades shown in this thread are hindsight - at the very least they cannot say I'm calling anything after the fact that letme get a fill in Ninja). Best Wishes, Thales

Hi MidK, I'll be leaving the spot to my daughter. I do still watch the cash charts, same as I watch the SPX when trading the ES. But I have a feel for the futures, and my philosophy has always been of the old "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." As to why I wanted to sell there, I see an impulsive move down off of Friday's high, and a choppy rally attempt that looks to me like a good old fashioned bear flag. There is no magic to the number, it was one tick below the resistance zone I outlined for you on this chart here, which is, of course, within the resistance zone that we played with on Friday. I expect at least a measured move off the high, and that may offer a good place to buy. As to why I then sold at 1.3649 - well, if they didn't want to let me sell it at to them at 45, they can now pay me premium! Best Wishes, Thales