thalestrader

-.25R on the short entry and 1.3701 and 1.3680 should be the prices levels to watch for break up or break down ... Best Wishes, Thales

I prefer the short side as well, but I'd rather consider an entry such as this given the choppiness of the waves and location within the range in which price finds itself ... Best Wishes, Thales

I would add that as with anything I use - whether it is TTT or fib's or chart patterns or trend lines, that actual support and resistance always takes precedence over all else. When the TTT targets fall within a zone of S/R, that helps me narrow my focus and tighten orders. I have said the same with fibs - there is no magic to them. All they do is help you gain a measured sense of proportion between swings. If a fib number falls within an S/R zone, it helps, if it is out in the middle of nowhere, then unless it is the midpoint of a range, it is likely just another random chart point. TTT is similar in that it is based upon the average extent of the average cycle low to cycle high (anyone familiar with Trader Vic will know the value of considering the average extent of moves of like degree). If a TTT number falls with an S/R zone, it becomes very relevant for my trading. If, on the other hand, it is hanging out there in the middle of nowhere, then it is likely just another random chart point with no more or less meaning than any other tick out there in no man's land. S/R comes first, and that helps you navigate from S to R to S as price travels through the middle of nowhere. TTT and fib's and chart patterns and trend lines simply help to give shape with areas of S/R. Outside of S/R, most of these derivative values are simply random. Each is extremely valuable when used in conjunction with S/R. Without S/R, each is merely a crap shoot. Best Wishes, Thales

If you're still here plaste, here are two long opportunities in hindsight from your morning and from my last night (as in I was sleeping when these occurred). In each case, I see a perfectly acceptable long opportunity, but since each was taken near the top of the current range as defined in my above post, I would have exited the entire position at the green line, which would typically have been PT1 where I'd only exit 1/2 and leave half on for a higher PT2. When long near a top, my expectations are less than if I am long near a bottom. Best Wishes, Thales

I would think that any longs initiated up here ought to be trailed with a tight stop or have a fairly close profit target with a rsting limit order. Here is why I think so: I would suggest that anyone trading the 6E/EURUSD using 15 minute or shorter time frame for his or her main trading to chart will find it helpful not to lose sight of the big picture. A four hour view of the EURUSD shows that after the most recent down leg, price has entered a sideways range, and it is currently trading at the top of that range, thick with resistance up to about 1.3700. My approach would be that any longs be taken near the bottom of that range, and to look primarily for shorts at these levels, unless there is an upside break and hold of the 1.37 level. If I were enticed into a long at this level, it would be with small, 20-50 tick profit targets and tight trailing stop loss. Also, this is NFP week, so at any moment (and it may already have happened as of yesterday) the 6E will likely slip into a coma and become a true scalper's product until Friday morning. It may yet, of course, break out prior to the number. It may yet test the lows of the range again. Or, it may simply rest, consolidating up here at the upper end of this range. The One Trillion Dollar question is this: Is this range between 1.3400-1.3700 going to yield to a continuation or a reversal of the downtrend? I do not know, and neither does anyone else. So, for now, I will play the current range - short the top, long the bottom, beware the midpoint. Best Wishes, Thales

Two good posts from Kiwi and Dug Dug> I have posted plenty of trades here where I have been taken out on my trailing stop only to watch price then zoom off in favor of the trade for an additional 150 ticks (such as happened Sunday night when I shorted at 1.3649 and my trailing stop took me out f the trade at 1.3630, and then price dropped steadily over the next few hours to 1.3460 or so. I have posted other trades, such as yesterday, where my trailing stop takes me out of a short just 8 ticks off the low before price reversed higher. I do not know which trade I should hold and which I should tighten stops on, so I trade each position of like degree the same. Best Wishes, Thales

You received some exellent advice and comments from fxThunder, MidK, and DugDug .... don't just read them and forget about them. I think you are feeling pressure to perform every session of every day, and this business does not work like that - if you try to make it work that way you will make too many mistakes. As fxThunder said, mistakes will be made, and if you limit the damage, you will be ok. In her seminar manual, Linda Raschke wrote that "[m]uch of trading is learning how not to beat yourself. Oddly, the majority of traders know when they're making mistakes or taking trades that they don't truly have any confidence in. Traders beat themselves ..." If you approach this thinking that you have to make money every time you log into your trading platform, you will eventually beat yourself. As for myself, last night I saw one opportunity I liked, but it had already triggered when I had finally gotten set and ready to go (it was a short, by the way, not a long). I did place an order below the low of the retest of what was the BO area for your trade #1. And that was the extent of my evening. An hour or so after placing the order I canceled it and shut down. That is how this game is. Also, to reenforce what DugDug said (and fxThunder, for that matter), if you miss a BO, buy the retest of the BO point if you feel you really want to be in that trade. Do not wait for the test, and then enter after that test as a new BO on the way up as you did in trade 2, because you may be buying the 3 of a 123 short sequence. You want to buy the 2, if you are going to enter post-BO at all. Go back to that post in the Real Time thread where I said you had gotten it, and remind yourself why I said that, because last night, on trade #2, you had done the opposite. Best Wishes, Thales

I use 24 hour high/low 9am to 9 am ... Best Wishes, Thales

Best Wishes, Thales

Hmmm ... not what I expectfrom jonbig, that's for sure. A sell limit a few ticks on the short side of 80.48 with a stop loss a few ticks on the long side of it should have been the play, don't you think? Best Wishes, Thales

Since know one else has answered you, and since you remarkably are incapable of figuring this out for yourself, and since I do not want to click on this thread everyday only to see that what bumped it was you repeating this same question, again, I'll take a stab at it and say that your attitude, which, quite frankly, sucked, has clearly, it would seem, resulted in you become persona non gratis to this thread. I do not know who keeps deleting your posts. But I suppose it must be a moderator. I would suggest that if you wish to resume posting here, that you re-consider your approach and your tone toward the other members, and then start posting real time Wolfe wave's, which is, I presume, the subject matter of this thread. If instead you are looking for a fight, or simply an arena in which to flex your ego, then may I suggest you start a Wolfe Wave thread (or a thread on any subject matter of your choosing) at Elite Trader - The #1 Site for Active Traders, where such behavior is not only tolerated, it is expected. By the way, I'm just the messenger. Don't shoot the messenger, and don't ask me to where your black eye. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi motion100, I like your gold chart. I added to my longs yesterday and today, adding to an initial position established by an earlier 123 type entry from about a month ago - 123's are the gift that keeps giving ... Best Wishes, Thales

I hear you on the short - test of yesterday's high was nearly a given once price tried twice and failed to break and hold back below yesterday's break down level. I have a buy stop at 80.51 as well, though it is getting late in the day for me as I have to be at my daughter's elementary school for an assembly program at 1:30 ... Best Wishes, Thales

Then you are on the right track ... I really do suggest that you try to get your understanding by reading Taylor directly, rather than what anyone else has to say about what Taylor may or may not have meant. It is painful, I agree. My currency trading friend (also a TTT user) calls Taylor "tortuous" to read. But tortuous as it may be, no service or internet forum can substitute the understanding that can only come from directly wrestling with the original book itself. Do not be in a hurry to make it a part of your trading. You are doing fine without it. I think it can only help, if you approach it properly. But it will only cause harm if you try quickly to incoprate it based upon an incomplete or flawed understanding. Best WIshes, Thales

well, you are, how can I put this delicately .... you are, you see, to be blunt, you are a vendor .... Just kidding richbois ... as far as vendors go, you're ok in my book. You need to subscribe to a thread to get notices. Go to thread tools at the top of the thread, and make sure you click subscribe. If you already are subscribed, then you need to go to your user control panel, and make sure you select the option that allows for email notifications ... Best Wishes, Thales

Now don't let the shouldawouldacoulda over shadow two back-to-back, according to plan days of solid performance. I shouldawouldacoulda re-shorted when price retraced back to my initial disaster hard stop on this 6E short, but I was too busy reading you Log ... Best Wishes, Thales

Stopped at 25 which would be +2.6R less the -.06R from the first test entry yields a +2R result. Best Wishes, Thales

then 42 ... and then 24 ... Best Wishes, Thales

then 42 ... Best Wishes, Thales

Stop progression to 59 then to 55 ... Best Wishes, Thales

I'll start counting it as one trade only when my broker offers to rebate my commissions and lost equity from the first position. Until then, for my records, it is two trades. Best Wishes, Thales

I've had two posts disappear into the electronic haze of the internet, so I will try this once more: My sell stop at 68 was filled at 69 (real life and demo) and soon after my stop was lowered to 70, where I was stopped out for -.06R. I then placed a sell stop at 62, for a break to new lows. Apparently my sell stop at 62 was filled at 63 on the dmo, and I received fills at 63 and 62 in real life (avergae fill 62.42). My stop loss was very quickly brought down to 64, which, if stopped, will be a -.1 (-1/10th0)R. In real life, I have targets set to scale out. For the sake of the demo account, I will trail a stop down with the intent of limiting out at +100 or capturing a portion of the move via a trailing stop. I wanted to show how I manage trades, cut quick, and re-enter in real time, but like I say, my posts for some reason did not post to the thread. Here are the charts I had tried to post: Best Wishes, Thales

Current view of the 6E has me getting ready to go short on a sell stop at 1.3568 ... Best Wishes, Thales

As I said, I would much prefer to wait for the pit open, and usually do and will. But when price gets to a level at which it will likely not stay long, I'd rather be in than not. Like I have always said, for every rule I have, I usually have a bushel or two of trades where I broke with the rule. I did get stopped for -9 (-.53R) on the initial short, and I rshorted at 79.53, which was one tick off the high, and I have a -2 tick stop on it (-.11R). Still looking to play for a potenital 2 dollar drop. However, the decline may be in with yesterday's sell off, and it might actually be time to buy for the ensuing rally. We shall see. Here is how it looks on a daily chart and on a 1 miute chart (I had to move the demo stop loss so as to shoe the entry better). Best Wishes, Thales

Here is my CL play of the day at the moment - short at 79.40 (yesterday's break down point), with a stop loss one tick above this morning's 79.48 high - risk is 9 ticks. Profit target is 2 Bills at 77.40 - 200 ticks ... I would have rather this took place after the pit opens at 9AM EST, but, you got to take them when they are offered. Best Wishes, Thales