thalestrader

PT1 is filled, and stop loss is now 1.5144... Best Wishes, Thales

Stopped at 5140, short again at 5151, same targets but initial stop is 5160. I will go to BE or better if first target is filled (possibly sooner)... Best Wishes, Thales

Stop loss is now 1.5140... Best Wishes, Thales

I'm short in real life from 1.5151, with a 1.5156 stop, which is $31.25/contract on the 6B. By the time I thought to place the trade in the demo account, the best I could do was a market order that was filled at 1.5145 which is more than twice the risk of my actual entry. Other wise, I have modeled the demo trade with stop loss and profit targets the same way I am actually trading this, looking to take 1/3 at 5120, 1/3 at 5060, and if it really turns into a runner, the final 1/3 at 4974, though I will be trailing a stop as well ... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Yesterday I had shown a little channel that I had ben tracking as a "bull flag" on the 6B. As such, I had anticipated a break of that channel the upside and a retest of the recent rally high, if not new highs. However, the channel has broken to the downside. As Marko once said, "if it channels, it's corrective." A corollary to that is that once a channel breaks, the action may be impulsive. Price has mustered a rally back to the underside of the lower channel line, and it is finding selling interest there. This would be a relatively low risk (and by low risk, I mean small in number of ticks) short entry point in anticipation of a retest of the day's lows, if not a break to new lows. Best Wishes, Thales

I tried to pass this by, but the irony is too much too bear in silence. Those who truly are among those dwelling knowingly in ignorance, for example, my friend Dug Dug, understand this intuitively. Best Wishes, Thales

When you stop fretting over the money and start having fun. I'm not trying to be flippant - I am amazed by her myself, and I have had the benefit of actually watching her do this. I was watching her play a new video game with her sister the other night. Every time I see her playing a new video game, the same thought occurs to me - that there seems no difference between her learning to trade and her learning to play a video game. For a technical trader trader from the electronic screen, that really what this is, isn't it? But the money spoils it for most, making it far too stressful. Dinero had a great post in your log tonight where he said that "Financial stress ruins all the things that make life great." That is probably the most important thing anyone in your log has had to say to you to date. Take it to heart. Trading clicked with my daughter because she is absolutely free from all the baggage that the money concerns weigh us down with. She is not worried about proving herself to me financially, buying a house, paying for college, getting marries (heaven forbid!) etc and so on. She simply wants to get a higher score than she did the night before. Best Wishes, Thales

Believe it or not, she actually discovered these entries on her own rather early on, and she does it far more aggressively than I do. Whereas I prefer to do it at a 2B, i.e. after a penetration of the level by at least a tick, she'll jump in at the market of need be even if price failed to test the tick level. Let me give you an example of what I mean - this morning I was looking for longs on the 6E, but I really did expect that price would first test 1.3619 or lower before it would mount a rally. I was prepared to sell if price would have exceeded the 1.3696 high and then reversed. However, price stalled at 1.3695, and fell from there without me. My daughter, on the other hand, may have been sitting there with a limit order to sell short at 95 or 96, and she may have just entered short at the market when she saw price back off 95, then muster back to to 95, and then again fall away. In other words, she'd likely have gotten short while I'd be content to shrug my shoulders and wait for the next opportunity. Its not the way I trade, but she came up with it on her own, and it has worked very well for her on the EURJPY, so who am I to criticize? Best Wishes, Thales

We just finished lunch and I will make one last update and then I'm out. But first, I had a couple of PM's asking whether the way I trade from the beginning of the thread. I have not changed anything in years. I think the focus on 123's came from others, not me, as there seemed to be this mass "aha" moment when I posted a chart of the EURJPY marking off the various highs and lows and how I used highs and lows to mark off trend changes, indicate trade opportunities, etc. I have always tried to locate areas of S/R where I would expect opportunities to present themselves. I have for years entered on a 2B or the first, smallest, spring bloom of a 123 at a significant level (see the earlier discussions months ago between MidK and I where I said I saw oblivious 123's and he disagreed with me - at certain levels, I'm lookng for significant wiggles). That led to a discussion of degrees of swing. The larger degree 123's are easiest to learn to see in real time, and it was simply the best way to help folks grow accustomed to reading price itself. So that is what I focused upon sharing here, it is a large part of the whole, and it comes in different sizes. However, for some reason, I have my detractors, and so I started using the chart trader function in a Ninjatrader demo account so that I could show that whether or not my detractors believe the trade was taken or not, it was nonetheless possible for the opportunity to have been identified and acted upon in real time. Chart trader has the added benefit of letting me show how I will probe first as a test of what I think price is indicating. Sometimes, the action at a particular level is so compelling (e.g. exactly what is anticipated in those cases where I am able to "pick a tick") that I can go all in. Such was the case last night with my long 6E at 1.3713. Other times, price bounces from a tick level, and then, rather than pause there again, cracks through it, such as happened to day at the 1.3619 level. Well, in those cases, I wait for price to either firm itself with a 123 or decline to the next tick level. In this case, my next level was in the mid 1.3580's, which would be about a 2/3's retrace of the entire rally from the 1.34xx low to yesterday's high. Price got there, more or less, and did what it needed to do to get me long with a 6 tick stop. I have since added at 1.3610 and again at 1.3622, and I added to the 6B at 1.5152. Had you just traded one contact at each level, you would now have three 6E and 2 6B contracts, with a total open trade equity of $1156.75 on a total initial risk of $137.50. I average up into longs and I average down into shorts. I keep my risk as small as possible, while allowing for gains as large as the market is willing to give. The 123, it should be noted, is typically the last entry. There are many times where I do nto get the opportunity to enter mor favorably, so I am "all in" at the 123, and it is those cases that I am most ruthless with cutting a trade short. Some of the entries should be obvious, while others might require that you drop down to a minute chart or even less to see them. The 6B offered a much lower entry, but I missed the opportunity while setting myself into the 6E. Here is what the 6E looks like in the ninjademo account with chaarttrader tracking three single contract entries with an avergae buy price of 1.3608: And here I have chart trader turned off to show the three entry points: Stops are in, so a profitable result on each instrument is assured. My son is now casting me rather angry looks (who among us would seek the wrath of a five year old with cabin fever on a spring-like day), so I am leaving these trades here with you as they are. Best Wishes, Thales

As I have said, science can determine the state of every cell, and calculate the electrical charge pulsing through every nerve, but the scientist will still not be able to speak of the hopes and dreams of the patient. You might find the following book worth your time to study ... Amazon.com: The Phenomenon of Life: Toward a Philosophical Biology (SPEP) (9780810117495): Hans Jonas, Eleonore Jonas, Lawrence Vogel: Books We humans are wonderful creatures, and while our bodies may ultimately be known down to the nano particle, an understanding of the being an becoming of that which animates us will not be so reducible. Science is itself a prejudice, and as such, a conceit. The blow ups that you note, and which you correctly predict will reoccur, happen when those who are convinced that there is no other way of knowing other than by reduction attempt to reduce the irreducible. Simple folk know this to be true, and they refer to it as missing the forest for the trees. Best Wishes, Thales

Here are my two trades long the 6B (GBPUSD) and long the 6E (EURUSD) ... LONG 6B ... LONG 6E ... PT's TBD, will trail stop if these do rally. Otherwise, if stopped, the total risk betwen the two is -1.3R. My attention was diverted to the 6E and as a result, I missed a more favorable entry on the 6B. If we see nice 123's develop as viewed on the 15 minute, I'll add to the longs. I will be going outside to play with my son soon, and I will be monitoring the trades from a wireless laptop and a cell phone to my broker if necessary - the point being I will not be updating these trades here. But the charts speak for themselves, I'm either up, down, or out with a small loss - no one will need me to say which is what. Best Wishes, Thales

I've been tracking the progress of this "bull flag" on the 6B (GBPUSD) since yesterday, first on a 15 minute, then 60 minute view as it grew from a calf to a bull. We're about to find out how bullish (or not) it is ... Best Wishes, Thales

You saw fine, and it is plain that there is support as you drew it - after all, price stopped falling and started rallying from within the zone you drew. But that reaction came almost four hours before I arrived, so at this point, I either need to wait for a new reaction high, or a retest of the low. I'd prefer it go even lower, but as I said, it may not get there. what I prefer and what I get often diverge immensely. 1.3658 down to 1.3639 is the top layer, for lack of a better term, of the entire area between 1.3619 and 1.3658. Price made it 10 ticks into that area. Had I been up and at 'em at that time, I may have tried a long there. Then again, I may have thought that the sellers took that 10 ticks with relative ease, and thus I would have perhaps held off and waited for (and still be waiting) for a retest of the low. And while if I had to "pick a tick" I'd like to watch for 1.3619, I am prepared to get long or get short from higher levels if price action indicates it would be prudent to do so. But it has to indicate such from somewhere other than the middle of nowhere, which is where it is at the moment. The nearst levels of interest to me are 1.3648-1.3639 below and 1.3700-1.3711. Price is right now between those two levels, in the middle of nowhere, where it spends most of its time. Best Wishes, Thales.

Hi Folks, I'm not sure it will get there, and if it does get there, I'm not sure what it will do, but I'd prefer to look for longs in the area between 1.3639 down to 1.3619 (the lower rectangle shaded area) and if I had to pick a tick, I'd focus on what price does at, above, and just below 1.3619 (elliptical highlight). The red arrows and blue arrows do not represent predictions, only possibilities that I am looking to trade depending upon what, if anything, develops. Again, there is nothing that says price is going to trade to that area. Best Wishes, Thales

I don't insist that everyone read the DOM. But, like you, if someone devotes some time to watching the DOM, it should prove beneficial, especially when price has reached S/R and you are trying to decide whther it is indicating the S/R will hold or break etc. As for absence form chats, forums, etc., I myself will have be posting a little less than I had been for the next several weeks as I have some outside projects that are taking considerably more of my time than I had anticipated. I am happy to hear that you time away has helped you, and that you are pleased witht he progres you have made reading the DOM. Best Wishes, Thales

All you need to do is watch price intently once it eneter one of your S/R zone sthat you have been so kind to share with us. It works best when you can "pick a tick," to focus upon - a prior swing low, for example, that is bbeing revisited for the first time, where price had previously spent little time as it saw immediate buying interest develop. It is even better when your "picked tick" is exceeded by a margin (the smaller the better but be flexible) and then price again sees immediate buying interest. Think Trader Vic's 2B. Nothing like entering on a 2B, adding on a 123, and then scaling out on the way to your next area of interest. Best Wishes, Thales

DOM or chart or even just a last trade quote window would be all the same. Price is price. Do not confuse its various re-presentations for something different from the thing itself. I am very slow to go to BE when I get an entry close to the low tick and within an area which I anticipated support/resistance. For example, I bought 6E this morning at 1.3732, low was 1.3727, stop loss was 1.3726. Price rallied 20 ticks off that low before comeing down and re-testing it to the tick. A BE stop would have had me miss a 42 tick profit on a trade with a 6 tick initial risk. When I am in close to a lw or high, I let it ride (as I am tonight with this 6E long at 1.3713, 1.3710 stop loss. I could lose 20 of these in a row (hasn't happened yet) and on the 21st trade I'd win back all that I had lost and then again as much. These trades occur at potential pivot points, so if you are wrong, you lose small, but if you are right, you can win very, very big. Best Wishes, Thales

6E dropped into the pocket, printed a 1.3711 low, bounced to about 1.3718, pulled back to 1.3712, I bought the 1.3713 offer, stop loss at 1.3710, .1R (that is 1/10th of 1R risk - in other words, I am risk only a dime of a typical risked dollar. If stopped out, I can always play again depending upon what price does. If I am not stopped out, and this rallies to my 1.3831 target, the pay off will be a $39.33 for every $1 bet. If I'm wrong, I lose my dollar. How is that for trading for infinite yield? Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the 6E/EURUSD has me awaiting price's arrival in the zone between 1.3698-1.3720, and if I had to "pick a tick" I'd be watching for what happens at, above, and below 1.3713 (highlighted in the ellipse). Best Wishes, Thales

I was fairly confident in my "long bias" on the 6J yesterday, and as I was turning in last night I saw price clear resistance at 11096, so I thought by morning I'd see the second third at PT2. But what happens, I thought, if price reverses soon after I go to bed and falls back below that resistance level? Well, I'd want to have my stop loss there, because that would be a sign that my long was not going to travel for 100's of more ticks to the upside. And then, thinking of your post above, I thought, well, then perhaps I should want to be short if that were to happen. After all, I can always get long again. As you can see, I woke this morning to find that I had indeed stopped and reversed overnight, and now I am sitting on a decent short profit with a stop loss at nearly 1.5+R. While I'm sure I would have tightened my stop loss and been out of my longs this morning, I have to credit your post last night for bumping my thoughts a bit farther along and getting me into that short. Nice share, MidK! Here is how the trade looks in the Ninja demo - short at 11094, current stop loss is +46 ticks at 11048, and my all out profit target is 10967. Again, not real time, but still obviously an ongoing position. And since it is in the Ninjademo, it shows that it was at least possible to have taken the trade - I also think a cursory look at the chart will show why a sell stop at that level, once that level had cleared, would be logical place to look for the short entry. I used an initial 30 tick stop tied to the entry order. Best Wishes, Thales

But what are you going to do about it? Best Wishes, Thales

I was bumped off zen-fire and I've been unable to re-connect for the last hour. Not that it matters much - unless zen-fire removes the bad data I'll probably just use Sierra for the week. Best Wishes, Thales

Care to share how you managed to do that? Best Wishes, Thales

I see the Saturday data using Zen-fire, but I do not see it on my IB feed or my Transact Feed in Sierra. My guess is that there was some funny stuff related to daylight savings - perhaps a server test gone wrong? That is just conjecture, of course. But Zen is the only feed I have where 3/13 data showing is present. When Globex opens, go to properties and set include weekend data to false. I may be mistaken, but doing so should remove the 3/13 data and allow the proper Globex trade data through. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Jon, Who is your data provider? Best Wishes, Thales