thalestrader

I have added a 1.3250 Profit Target to take advantage of a possible third push on down on the re-test. Here is what the short EURUSD (6E) looks like going into the GDP announcement ... ... and immediately afterward ... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I'm a minute or so late on this post as I immediately liked what I was seeing on the 6E/EURUSD when I got to my charts this morning and I had to scramble to get a market order off close the high. I was filled short at 1.3404 0n the demo, and a tick better than that in real life, but we'll go with the demo fill for the sake of this post. Stop loss is 1.3408, and if stopped, I reserve the right to re-enter short depending upon price action. Targets are a retest of the lows with a trailing stop or the end of the day. Best Wishes, Thales

I would like to second Blowfish's request concerning the DAX. I may not comment on your charts very often, and I have no plans to change my sleep schedule so as to allow me to trade the DAX AM session, but I do like to follow along with you. You are free to post whatever you like here - DAX, EURO, Pork Bellies, Beans, Crude Oil - nothing is off limits so long as it can be charted and traded. Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the 6E showing the 240 minute and then a drill down on a 1 minute ... Best Wishes, Thales

Mr_black, Are you typically always in during RTH? In other words, is your method either long/short, never flat? Best Wishes, Thales

That made me smile, which is something I very much enjoy doing. So thank you for the smile! I had an event to attend last night, and I set a sell limit to get short the 6B at 1.5105. Much to my chagrin, I came home to find that that was the high tick and I did not get a fill on even one contract. I'm happy to see that you were able to take advantage of a such good opportunity. Best Wishes, Thales

What is that chart? Best Wishes, Thales

The pivot high that was getting hammered out between 12AM-3AM EST on 3/16/2010 was played out between 1.3698-1.3702. I used 1.3698. The 1.3720/21 level was a 1.27 fib extension of the first swing down, a common level for a correction to end. That is typically my BE point if I short the 123 break. In the end, the exact level is not as important as the concept of defining a zone and watching how price behaves once it gets there. Don't kill yourself trying to pick exact levels - get the general areas right, and then have a plan for what you will do when price gets there. I think MidK's recent posts are an excellent example of what you should be doing. Best Wishes, Thales

London certainly is a fine city, though I much prefer New York City. The last time I did business there I stayed on a bench in Bryant Park, and I traded a slightly used cigarette I found beneath a discarded falafel for a slightly used tissue (a good trade for me as I do not smoke, but I do have allergies), I do not drink, but I dined in dumpsters behind some of the finest restaurants in Hell's Kitchen, and I gambled atop a cardboard box in Washington Square Park, finding myself a consistent loser at three card monte, which turns out to be quite a shell game. One should always beware of shell games. And as this was just last week, so such entertainments and amusements are still available to all who share with me a similar sense of refinement. Best Wishes, Thales

Yes, it does. And the break of that level would have been a good "sell breaks of support." Best Wishes, Thales

Your average loss is getting smaller and your average win is getting larger. Still much room for improvements, but I believe this is the third week of improvement in that respect, so we might have a trend! That is likely the source of why you feel "strangely good" while being down. Improvement yields its own rewards. I hope the trend continues for you. Best Wishes, Thales

I bought on the second, though I had considered the first dip, and for a few moments I considered I may have missed a god shot at getting it that low. There was no hesitation on the second decline - it was time to try a long. Best Wishes, Thales

Don't confuse what I do in the demo account for the sake of posting the trades here with what I'm doing as I trade. I did make a point that even using one lot per entry this trade would have been profitable, and had I traded the demo in as I traded my account, it would have been even more so. Low ... High ... Higher Low ... Higher High ...Higher Low ... Higher High ... Best Wishes, Thales

6E - Bought 3591, 3610, 3622, with each subsequent trade smaller than the previous trade. Stop at second trade moved to 3591, stop at third add moved to 1.3608 for a worst-case break even, then stop raised to 1.3615 to assure a small profit. The key to pyramiding is doing it in the right direction - a pyramid is large at the base, narrow to the top. The base supports the upper layers of the structure. One mistake folks have is that they tend to pyramid in the wrong direction, building increasingly large layers upon a small base (an upside pyramid). You want, in other words, to build 3-2-1 rather than 1-2-3, i.e. buy 3 then add 2 then add 1, not buy 1, then add 2 then add 3. You define risk by managing the distance between your entry and your stop, but you manage it through position size relative to that risk point definition. Does that answer your question, or have I missed the mark of what you are asking? Best Wishes, Thales

I didn't think it a stupid question. I certainly did not mean to imply anything of the sort. Don't censor yourself, or you might miss the chance to learn something that may become a keystone to your success. Best Wishes, Thales

You know that for spot EURUSD, every pip per $1000 trade size = .10 (a dime), and every pip per $10000 trade size = 1.00 (a dollar). You should have an idea of what your per trade risk is. Let's say you are risking $50/trade, and you see an entry at resistance, and you are going to use a 10 pip stop loss, then you should be able to figure out quickly and without a spreadsheet that you can trade $50k on that trade. Whether you are entering on a limit order waiting for price to retrace back to test a level, or on a stop waiting for price to break a level, or you are entering at the market after test of a level, you should have a pretty accurate idea to the tick where your stop is going to go. I rarely enter a trade where I do not have my risk nailed down to the tick before placing my entry order. And by rarely, I mean never. S/R is already there, and it should not be a surprise, right? If nothing else, you can figure that you can always enter at the market, throw an initial and arbitrary stop loss of 20 pips on, which in the example I gave here would allow you to trade 25K and keep your risk to $50. Then you can adjust your stop loss to a proper placement. Even then, you at least know your risk level before you send the order. But most importantly, these trades should not sneak up on you. You need to prepare. And you should practice what you are trading long enough and well enough to be able to size a trade without a spreadsheet. Best Wishes, Thales

Taken out at 1.5000. Here is how the demo blotter looks for today. I do not know why Ninja counted some of the individual contracts as individual trades, but in my mind I had three trades today - small win on 6B short, large win on 6B short, very small loss on an early CL short. Best Wishes, Thales

... stop loss is 1.5007 (+144) and my take profit is 1.4991 (+160)... (only because it is Friday and I want to go outside and play! Best Wishes, Thales

Here is how the last 1/3rd of this 6B (GBPUSD) short looks ... Best Wishes, Thales

Having looked at this I've decided that 1.5027 is the better stop loss, so rather than adjust the demo to match the real, I've adjusted the real to match the demo - stop loss on final 1/3 is 1.5027. Best Wishes, Thales EDIT: I am also raising the last profit target from 1.4974 to 1.4978

Stop loss on final 1/3 is 1.5026 (+125) which is slightly worse than 1:1 from the low to my target versus the low to my stop (I see the picture shows 1.5027, but that is the demo, my rea-lifel stop loss is 1.5026)... Best Wishes, Thales

1/3 profit filled @ 1.5120 (+31 ticks) 1/3 profit filled @ 1.5061 (+90 ticks) Stop loss on final 1/3 is 1.5085 (+66 ticks) Best Wishes, Thales

stops are now 1/3 @1.5109 and 1/3 at 1.5090 ... Best Wishes, Thales

stops are now 1/3 @1.5109 and 1/3 at 1.5120 ... Best Wishes, Thales

Here is where I am with this 6B (GBPUSD) short: Short @1.5151 1/3 profit filled at 1.5120 (+31 ticks) stop loss on 1/3 is 1.5120 (+31 ticks) stop loss on final 1/3 is 1.5144 (+7 ticks)... Best Wishes, Thales