thalestrader

Long I am ... Best Wishes, Thales

Current look at the 6E ... Best Wishes, Thales

The only reason I can see to trade spot is flexible position size and better cross-rate liquidity. As for the majors, if you can trade futures size (which for the 6B is only $62,500/contract) then futures are markedly superior. Best Wishes, Thales

You have an attitude that is better suited to ET and it shows. -Thales

How's that million coming along? Best Wishes, Thales

A common about which question I get PM's concerns Trader Vic's three books. I have only read his first two books: Trader Vic 1 - Methods of a Wall Street Master and Trader Vic 2: Principles of Professional Speculation. I have not read his book on commodities, and I cannot recommend it one way or the other. If I were starting out, I would focus my attention on his first two books. Trader Vic 1 is excellent from cover to cover. Trader Vic 2's strength is Section 2 on technical analysis and section 4 on psychology/emotions. I did not find section 1 on fundamental analsyis or section 3 on option trading to be very helpful. In fact, I would not be surprised if those sections did not delay my ability to put his technical teaching into practice. For a long time I read and re-read a few pages of Trader Vic every night before I would go to bed, and I recently renewed that practice. I manage to get something out of his pages each time I revisit them. Best Wishes, Thales

I know quite a few folks who bought MTP (myself included) who find it useful, but not in the manner in which it is market it to traders. I use it primarily for its position sizing calculator. When I am too lazy to draw the fibs myself, I will sometimes use the "one-click" DP painter to show some of the fib extensions I use, but I am so used to using a standard fib tool, I rarely bother to load MTP on a chart any longer. Best Wishes, Thales

Yes, I am full of agendas. That's why I started a thread titled "Position Sizing Software" to tout the benefits of a specific software available at positionsizer.com. Oh, wait, that was you. As to the cost, I overstated it by $110 ($695 + $95), so shoot me. If I had hit the "8" rather than the "9" would you still be upset? You really didn't read my posts, did you? Bitter? I'm not bitter at all. What is there here for me to be bitter about? I never said you got ripped off. I merely suggested that if someone were going to pay what positionsizer.com was charging, that they might consider paying the extra $1600 and get MTPredictor (which I also feel is overpriced). I do suspect that you have an interest in positionsizer.com beyond that of a mere customer, and your behavior here this afternoon would seem to support that suspicion. As I said in my first post, I may be wrong. But your own behavior seems to support rather than undermine that suspicion. The specific behavior in question I refer to is your ranting about the $110 discrepancy between what I quoted as the cost and the actual cost per your company's website, as well as your ad hominem attack on me (e.g. "sorry you cannot afford...," "you have an agenda of some sort," "makes you look bitter.") All of which makes you sound like a vendor. Again, I may be wrong, but you sound like a vendor or a paid shill. Best Wishes, Thales

Steve Griffiths runs a good shop at MTP. I am not a programmer, and I had no problem paying (if memory serves) about $1200 for the software a bunch of years ago. Today, at $2500/copy, I'd pass. If he'd drop the price back to $1400-$1500, I'd recommend the software to anyone, especially if one is interested in trading using EW and fibs. MTP also comes with a two part trading course. The first part I believe is free, and can be downloaded from their website, but part two is only delivered after purchasing the software. It is very good material, in my opinion. I do not know what prompted the MTPredictor folks to raise the price as they have, but I admit that the trading course alone is a great "value-added" to their software. As for the positionsizing.com software, as I said, the ATR stop can be found for free for just about any of the common charting platforms, and though I am not a programmer, a friend of mine easily added the position sizing calculator to an .efs for me back when I was still using e-signal. To charge almost $900 for it seems a bit outrageous. I'm sure some of the smart folks we have right here at TL could program a position sizing calculator for Ninjatrader, Multichart, Tradestation, etc. and so on. Best Wishes, Thales

I think quite possibly Pipthief has stripped out some useful components of MTP, i.e. the position sizing and ATR components, and is now selling them as stand alone script. For the $800, you would be better spending the extra vig and get MTPredictor and its EW and fib capabilities. Afterall, the position size calculator is easy to program, and the ATR stop is available for almost all charting platforms for free. I suspect that Pipthief's posts are a subtle form of spam. I may be wrong, but that i show it looks to me. Best Wishes, Thales

My currency trading friend, who was the first to really press upon me the power of the Trader Vic Gap Rule, explains the time element as follows - what is important is not whether or not the Gap fills within 10-15 minutes of the open, but whether or not price gaps open and then trends immediately in the direction of that gap, or does it reverse within 10-15 miutes, and begin trending in the direction of the prior close. As for Taylor, for the US indices, I have today as a Buy day, and Taylor can easily accommodate the overnight gap and subsequent decline for a Buy Day on the US indices as well as for Marko's Short Sale day on the DAX. The reason being that both days are adjacent to one another in the cycle, and depending upon what the market has done during the previous two trading sessions, either day can see an initial rally followed by a decline (in some cases a precipitous decline). The short sale day finishes the previous three day rally. Sometime, momentum from that rally carries the market higher on the Buy day open before the decline sets in that allows traders to get long at more favorable prices for the next three day rally. This is why richbois can say that the often times two traders can be working different cycle days on the same instrument, but if each follows Taylor's rules, and so long as each keeps to his or her labeling, the results should be the same. After all, what Taylor's method is really about using is recent prior highs and lows, and recent opens and closes as S/R levels, while anticipating that most of the time, even in bear markets, a market will spend more time going up than going down, even if the extent of declines outpaces rallies in a bear market. I've been using Taylor since the end of 2005, and I have been on the same cycle, which happens to coincide with richbois's cycle, since June of 2006. It works, and the Trader Vic Gap Rule is a very valuable addition to Taylor, in my opinion. Best Wishes, Thales

It is either a range bar or it is not a range bar. They are a matter of definition, not opinion. 2+2 = 4, no matter what OEC wishes to have their customers believe. A circle is a line on which all points are equidistant from a center point. OEC could say that a circle is a four sided figure where each side is joined at a 90 degree angle to the adjacent line, but they would not in fact be describing a circle. A stop order is a stop order. It cannot mean one thing at Interactive Brokers and another thing at OEC. Same goes for range bars. I understand how they are building them as well. They are building them wrong. And I am baffled that you persist in this defense of OEC on this one particular issue. I can pull up a 10 range CL chart on CQG, e-Signal, Ninjatrader, or Sierra Chart, and each is identical - each understands a range bar to be a range bar as the folks posting ot this thread. Only OEC argues that a range bar is matter of subjective opinion. It is not. Best Wishes, Thales

Indeed! Best Wishes, Thales

Brownie, With all due respect, a range chart depicts range, not ticks. If there was no print, i.e. a gap between traded prices, then that needs to be recorded in the range chart as it is nonetheless within the range of traded price. Otherwise, the chart is now a bastardized tick chart, and not a range chart. This is not an issue of "bad" or "Fake" ticks. Those are misnomers. OEC apparently just does not understand the nature and function of range charts. They can make up whatever excuse they like, but in this case, OEC is wrong, and their customers who are not satisfied with OEC's "range/tick" charts are voicing legitimate concerns. Sure, there are alternatives. But why, in this case, do you not join with those voicing legitimate concerns to help move OEC in the right direction. I am not sure why, in this case, you are opting for a "my(OEC) way or the highway" approach to OEC's range charts. In the past you have always encourage OEC customers to let their views be heard so as to encourage OEC to improve. Why is this case different? Especially when OEC is so clearly wrong in its interpretation of what constitutes a simple concept like "range"? Best Wishes, Thales

Could the ES give yet a third 123 in just two day ... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, A quick pop in and I see that long was the way to go as the ES has now rallied back to yesterday's prior break down point ... Best Wishes, Thales

Quick update on the ES shows a not very impulsive movement following the 123 trigger, as well as a possible 2B short opportunity. The proverbial "mixed signals," I presume. As price is above the open, I'd have to give preference to staying long, but my stop loss would now be at break even or very close to it. Again, I am not traing this, and if fact, I am on my way out. Have a great day, folks! Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, I've been quite distracted with non-trading business the last few weeks, and I likely have several more ahead of me before the Spring/Summer routine becomes a routine, and I can resume regularly posting. However, I got an e-mail today from Mike Reed, who runs a trade service focusing on S/R and providing intraday updates, and the material in his email lends itself to a nice, educational/informational post. Full disclosure: I am not Mike Reed. I have spoken favorably of him and his service here in the past. I have bought and read his material, and a number of years ago, I had, for a while, subscribed to his service. I am no longer a subscriber because I learned to apply what he he taught. In other words, I graduated. His is a very good service, reasonably priced for the value, etc and so on. I do not mean for this to become an infomercial for his service - this is just a matter of full disclosure. And anyway, in an industry such as ours so full of pseudo-gurus, if we do find a service out there that actually is valuable, then why should we not say so, right? One of the "set-ups" Mike teaches is none other than the JR type 123 reversal. His email had a link to two youtube videos showing his trading yesterday's 123 top reversal on the ES. Here is what it looks like on my chart (and I included a potential 123 bottom reversal from this morning as well). Yes, I know this is after the fact (I am not trading it, and I was not even watching the ES this morning). This is meant to be an educational example post, not a "Hey look at me I'm a trader" post. The 123 bottom has triggered, though nothing says this is going to run like yesterday's top ran - it may be a winner, and it may be loser. That is what a stop loss is for, right? I hope James does not mind me including the two part Youtube videos here. If so, he can delete them. I am posting them for their educational value. I am not Mike Reed. I have no affiliation with Mike Reed other than I am a former student and former subscriber of his services. This is not meant to be spam, and I apologize ahead of time if it is interpreted to be such. I hope the videos are allowed to stand, and that you enjoy them. Best Wishes, Thales PART 1 [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFZNy76HoRU]YouTube - 1186.avi[/ame] Part 2 [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcW3QlXgAIQ]YouTube - 1186a.avi[/ame]

Now that is a worthwhile post. You may become a market opportunist yet, Dinero. Best Wishes, Thales

It may be more accurate to say that if you can make money sim, you probably won't make money live - not right away, at any rate. For the record, I've never made one thin dime sim trading. I have not tried, but I am pretty sure that there is no way to withdraw sim "profits," much less actually spend them. Sure, it is reasonable to practice in Sim before going live. But Zdo's point is that just because you can show a sim profit, do not think the transition to live hard money trading will be as simple as changing your log-in. Sim has its place. I use it from time to time myself - mostly it is simply a "game" component I will use while observing a new instrument or market or trying to get a handle on a change in volatility in a market I do trade. But I never used a sim or paper account until after I already put in my 10K hours. Every trade I made while learning was live - each and every one. While it took longer than I would have liked to get where I am now (certainly much longer than I had anticipated that it would take) I am not sure I ever would have gotten here if I had had access to a sim account like you folks do today. I see a lot of folks addicted to sim trading - it is a drug and it is a crutch. How many here and elsewhere have you seen sim trade for 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, and when finally posting profits day after day the trader goes live, immediately has two or three big losing day's in a row, and rather than trade through it he or she immediately runs back to the comfortable shelter of the sim platform for 6 more months of "practice". If you can trade sim with 90% profitable sessions, and then blow out three live in a row - you do not need more sim. You need to find out what bad habits work in sim but do not work live. In order to uncover those, you need to trade live - not sim. Do you know what a market order is? Do you know what a limit order is? Do you know how to place OCO or bracket orders so that you are protected by a stop loss that will be cancelled if your profit limit order is filled? Do you know how to cancel an order? Do you know how to check to see whether or not you have any open orders? Do you know how to move your stop loss to reduce risk and capture profits(assuming that is part of your trading strategy)? If so, you are ready to graduate from sim and start trading, assuming, of course, that you have a sytem, method, approach, or whatever that you plan on applying to your selected market. I think Zdo is dead on with his assessment of sim trading and its limits. I too am not anti-sim. But, if I had to do it all over again, I'd do it the same way I did and never touch a paper trading account until I had learned enough to be protected from its dangers. Better to trade live and small than fake and large (or fake and small). Best Wishes, Thales

Weekend Reading Hi Folks, Here is a nice work by the late Stanley Kroll. I also recommend his earlier book, The Professional Commodity Trader. He is an interesting case in that he moved from being a largely discretionary trader to being systems based trader. What matters, however, is that whether he was trading based upon his discretion or his computerized systems, he knew well the importance of consistent and disciplined application of his method. Best Wishes, Thales Kroll_on_Futures_Trading_Strategy_by_Stanley_Kroll.pdf

Hi jashanno, Nothing wrong with Sim - while it will do little to help you with the emotions of trading, it is the proper way to learn the mechanics and to help train your eye - as we are nearing opening day, I'll shift to baseball for my analogies: Sim is the batting cage - it will help you learn to see the ball and practice taking your swings, but it will not take the place of standing in against a 90+ mph curve ball in front of 50K screaming fans. But even the pros take swings in the batting cage regularly. Do not worry about trading what everyone else is trading here. I trade the 6E, and I think both the 6E and NQ are wonderful instruments to trade, especially for someone learning to read price based on S/R and various repeating patterns. As far as doing things differently, this is not a "my way or the highway" thread. Each of us who have participated here have our own grip on the bat and our own individualized stance at the plate particular to his or her "body" type. I would wager that those who have improved the most here tend to be those who do it his or her own way. Welcome to TL and welcome to this thread. I look forward to your participation. Best Wishes, Thales

Would you have been cutting your trading here if this were sim? Are you at least still sim trading for the balance of the day? Bad habits, once started ... Best Wishes, Thales

I do not use volume on intraday charts, so I will not comment on your proposed use of volume in this case. I am reminded of a post I made a little over a month ago: If I am not up a few ticks real soon, I am likely out. If I am stopped in based on a BO that can't even hold for a handful of seconds, I am out. As for re-entry, I enter at a new BO high (for longs) or new BO low (for shorts). One thing to keep in mind is hat this thread has really spoken of two different "1-2-3" entries, and the one one you are using in this case is a simple sequence typically associated with Joe Ross and his Ross Hooks. Another, more rigorous 123 is that associated with Trader Vice, and those require the break of a correctly drawn trend line. The Trader Vic 123 will weed out many, though not all, of those instances where you get ticked into a trade that immediately reverses. The trade off will be that by the time you gte both the trend line break (Trader Vic's 1), a retest of the high (Trader Vic's 2) and then a break of the significant low (Trader Vic's 3) a large portion of the move may already be over. The Joe Ross type 123 will get you in for much of those moves, but you often will also be buying or selling the "C" of a simple ABC correction, which reverse against your new trade and quickly head for a break of the B pivot. This is why I do not stick around long in these trades. These either work, or they do not work (usually). True, sometimes I cut the trade loose only to see price do what I had positioned myself for it to do. In those cases, I re-enter as described above. Remember, risk is a function, not a simple measure - risk is a function of spread (entry-stop loss), position size, and probability., So though the re-entry level is not as favorable as the initial entry, by adjusting position size, along with the increased probability that the trade will work if the BO direction resumes, the risk really has not changed (at least not much). I would also recommend a couple of posts from early in this thread, one by Blowfish, where he reminds us that where there is a potential long trade no doubt lurks a potential short trade as well; which leads to the second post I recommend in which Kiwi advises us to always consider the other side. If we are preparing to get long, ask what would make us change our minds and decide to go short instead? In my view, my stop loss protects me against suffering an inordinately large loss. It also marks a point where I am wrong. But, it is not the point at which I am wrong - it is the outer boundary of the bad lands. If price is heading in the direction of my stop, I am already wrong. I would also recommend that anyone working along with this thread read (or re-read) chapter 7 of Trader Vic I - Methods of a Wall Street Master. Pay special attention to the 2B criterion, as many of these trades based on Joe Ross 123's that get immediately stopped out are suitable for a stop and reverse on the basis of the 2B criterion. Best Wishes, Thales

Trade #1: Short at 1.3404, stopped out 1.3408, -4 ticks Trade #2: Short at 1.3404 (re-entry), current stop loss is 1.3380, or +24 ticks (demo chart shows 1.3378, but my actual stop is 3380, and I'm just too lazy to retake a pic of the chart). Profit target is 1.3250 or EOD ... Best Wishes, Thales