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thalestrader
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Everything posted by thalestrader
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No problem, amswak. Once you are ready officially to re-enter, I will re-list you in the summary. Once you re-enter, I will start you right where you left off. I just thought that since you said you wanted to sim trade some strategies, it would be better to remove you from the active roster so as to not perhaps influence you into a premature return. If do you wish for me to continue to include in the current active roster, just let me know, and I will re-list you immediately. For the record, I don't consider you out of The Race unless you say you are out for good, as you made your intentions perfectly and publically clear here in the thread. If you think it would be better to keep you listed as active, I will readily do so. If you prefer me to keep it as I have it for now, then rest assured that when you're ready to return, we'll be ready for you. And I do hope you get the million (along with everyone else in The Race). Best Wishes, Thales
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Perhaps, since you are only trading one lot, you could use the YM @ $5/tick as your initial instrument until you come up with an approach that suits you. Best Wishes, Thales
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I am keeping a master spreadsheet, which is tracking the cumulative results of all those who are and have participated. I will continue to keep the master spreadsheet, and I will post its results at the end of week 20. I think that given the small starting stakes and the relatively few participants that it is unlikely that the cumulative losses accrue above a five figure level. Best Wishes, Thales
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Hi Folks, Here is the week four update. I have removed those who have not provided any update nor a PM with closing equity. I have also decided that we ought to acknowledge the current leader, and going forward, the leader will be shown with a green "leader jersey" and special font. This week saw the third lead change of The Race. Congratulations to fxcowboy, the current leader! I wish everyone a great week. Best Wishes, Thales
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Hi Folks, I have received week ending numbers from sicko, Fxcowboy, and fxthunder. Bathrobe is in but not trading until late June. Anyone else who wants to be included in the weekly summary and continued into next week should PM me his/her closing equity by 12 noon EDT on Sunday. I will post the summary Sunday evening. This coming week I'll fund a $500 fx micro account ala' fxthunder, and my daughter and I will team trade it. We'll trade Tokyo AM until she gets out of school for the summer, and then she will trade NYC and I will trade Tokyo. This will be tracked as a separate entry from my little futures account, which I do intend to resume trading as soon as time allows. Best Wishes, Thales
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I did this one just for you. This screen shot is from an FXCM demo showing the implication of the 3 pip spread on a 125K (one 6E equivalent). You are immediately in the hole by 3 futures tick equivalents, more or less. While the spread on the 6E does sometimes widen to three (and I have seen the spread go 15 a few times during run away panics), the typical spread on the 6E is 1 tick. So, in a word, execution costs with a bucket plain old suck compared to futures. You need to take this into account when you decide upon how you are going to trade spot if go with a bucket. Best Wishes, Thales
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Hi brave1, You can thank me and the others who helped build this thread by doing just what you have the last few days - share you charts and pay it forward. I have pulled away from the markets lately by other business, but I'll be back, and when I am, I'll renew posting real time charts here. I hope you continue to do so as well. Best Wishes, Thales
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Like I said, if it isn't fun, it isn't worth doing. I presume those who have joined as participants are enjoying, or at leats expect to enjoy doing so. I suspect many who have subscribed to the thread, though choosing not to participate, also find some enjoyment here. I know I hope to learn a thing or two along the way, or at least have some fun trying. Good luck to you, fxcowboy, I hope you, along with everyone else in The Race, reached the million! Best Wishes, Thales
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Hi MidK, I like your idea, and I had considered doing just that, but at least initially, for a contest of this sort, IB's margin requirements would be prohibitive. Now, if I worked up to about 50K in trading capital, then I'd probably transfer the funds from FXCM and into an IB sub account as you suggest. But at 40:1 max (a very sound level, by the way) I think I'd be just spinning my wheels with the EJ, and I'd then prefer just to wait until my schedule allows me to resume my normal trading schedule. Best Wishes, Thales
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Hi folks, Sorry for the late post, but it has been a busy weekend capping off a busy week. I thought I had everyone, but I could not find amswak's ending balance, so though I know he was down for the week, I do not have a figure. A reminder for all Race participants - you must PM your ending equity to me by noon on Sunday to be included in the weekly summary. I'll likely not have time to trade my sessions this week, but should I trade, I will post an update per the rules. Also, I will likely fuel up a $500 fxcm micro account so as to be able to trade the EJ during Tokyo AM session. Best Wishes, Thales
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Tried posting this last night, but TL was down ... I'm fine with that, Sicko. I have said from the beginning that anyone can join in at anytime. I'll likely need more time myself, as I am now booked solid with work through June 3. My business is now overbooked, but I am also understaffed due to the recession. While I'd love to hire another technician or two more, I am hesitant to do so as I do not want to hire someone just to find I have to let the him or her go six months from now. If this recovery looks like it is going to stick, I'll staff up, but for now, I'm back in the trenches, so my trading is on hold. I have been watching the Tokyo AM session, but there just has not been anything there based on the system I am using in this small account with respect to the 6E, and even the 6J has not yielded much by the way of opportunity during those few hours. The 6A has done some moving, but I hesitate to try day trading a contract that I have always used for swing trades. The one thing that has been moving is my daughter's beloved EURJPY. We have two FXCM micro accounts, one that she trades, and one that she and I had done some things in last year. Perhaps, if there are no objections, I could fund that account and at least trade the EJ while I am unable to trade the NY AM. The only other choice I have would be to get up at 2 AM and trade Frankfurt/London. But I like sleeping, and do not like exhaustion. If I were to add the micro account, I would count each account as a separate entry. How's that sound? Also, we have a Girl Scout event at Dorney Park tomorrow, so while I have all the numbers in, I will still not be able to get the weekly summary updated and posted until Sunday. As it stands, Daedalus has formally withdrawn, and Enoch and ADarkerRattling Me are assumed to have withdrawn by their silence. Additions include Attila and fxCowboy. If I am missing anyone, please PM me, and I will be sure to get you included in The Race's roster. Best Wishes, Thales
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Here's one way to play it ... (shown using Ninja demo chart trader). I have to run, so I'll have a look at this later tonight or tomorrow. Best Wishes, Thales
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I'm heading out and will not be back until this evening, so I am not able to trade today, but it sure looks like the ES has the makings of a trend day, though we have to await whether it is trend up or down. It could just be a range day, but it sure feels like it is waiting to rip roar one way or the other. At this point, the path of least resistance appears to be down, but it has been a strange market that has lately delighted in the unexpected. Best Wishes, Thales
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I've been trading this using the 6J, and I have been flipped out several times over the last few months taking some small cuts along the way. I'm currently flat and waiting for a new a new low on the 6J (which would correspond to a new high on the spot USDJPY) before making another attempt. Best Wishes, Thales
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I think I'll be willing to keep slugging away so long as no one has hit the million dollar mark, so while I do think it may be possible for someone to get there in twenty weeks, I think odds favor an extension. Best Wishes, Thales
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No trades for me either. There was a long on the ES, but I was away from my desk when it both signaled and triggered. The 6E had several signals that either did not trigger, or had a far too large stop loss to even trade one contract. My schedule over the next several weeks has really filled up today, and it looks like I may be done with trading until after the end of May, except for next Wednesday, and possibly this Friday AM. If I fall too far behind Sicko I'll post up the extra $600 or so I need to bring the balance back to 3K so as to resume trading 2 lots. In the mean time, I will still be participating in the thread and putting together the weekly summaries. If I do manage to get some trades in, I will post the statements, otherwise, as per the rules, no trades, no statements. Best Wishes, Thales
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You're in, dVl. Good luck, and I hope you get the million, or at least the 50K you came for, at any rate. Best Wishes, Thales
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Fumble .... Best Wishes, Thales
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I fully expect draw downs during this race, and, given the nature of the objective, I expect several significant draw downs. What is potentially very damaging concerning this one is that it was an unnecessary draw down caused by pilot error and does does not reflect a a regularly scheduled draw down within the system I have been using for this account The system itself, of course, will also have draw downs. If the next draw down is tomorrow, I will have a hole twice as deep to crawl out of as I would have had had I just traded the system. In fact, the one thing that led me to go ahead and dream this up when sick posted his original intent was that I had a little side bet going concerning trading a system, and I thought that at least I wouldn't have to "think" too much about this account - just trade the signals as the system generates them. Last night during Tokyo's AM session, the system signaled three longs on the 6E, each of which hit for profit targets of 33 to 66 ticks, and two shorts on the 6J, one a -13 loss and the second a +33 profit. I took none of them. Instead, I burned through 637.50 (probably close to $700 with commissions and fees) by allowing my short bias to override what was intended to be a relatively thought-free, mechanical approach. So, had I traded as planned, and as I have traded this account for the previous two weeks, the account should have been up +$1900 trading two lots. Instead, it is down $700 or so, and I am back to trading one lot until a new equity high is achieved. On a positive note, however, I thought that this thread and The Race itself would have instructive value apart from the contest itself in that it would likely bring out the behaviors that make it so difficult for so many to make a successful go at trading. Well, here I am - Thales, the object lesson in how important is the old saw that one needs to "plan one's trade and trade one's plan." Also note the secondary theme of last night's trading that, as Linda Raschke cautions in the preface of her Street Smarts book, "[t]he single most important secret is this: learn to listen to the markets and do not impose your will upon them." Lesson learned. Again. Best Wishes, Thales
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I'm in the middle of a total breakdown of discipline with respect to this account, and I am down very close to my loss limit, which my broker has yet to put in place since it is Sunday, so I am going to impose it myself. The system I have been using for this account would have had me long two lots of the 6E at 1.2877 for a 33 tick profit target at 1.2910, which was easily hit. Instead, I kept shorting this thing playing for at least a 50% fill of the gap during Tokyo. Nothing doing, at least not yet, except that I am down 637.50 + commissions and so that is punishment enough. Makes no sense - there was no 123 and no 2B, and I am not one to shoot for a gap fill. Bizarre behavior on my part. It's almost as though I had gotten so used to going short, I was unable to bring myself to go long. At any rate, I'm pulling the plug on myself for tonight, and quite possibly until Tuesday in the NY AM. So unless I decide to trade this account tomorrow, and trade it extremely well, I would expect that Tuesday morning, sicko, I will be posting a losing day - and a doozy of a loser at that! Best Wishes, Thales
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The Race - Week 2 An uneven week , with some of the Racers continuing to make progress away from the starting line and others finding themselves back behind the starting line. A testament to the difficulties this week is that while we had a combined positive mileage last week of +1609.4 miles, this week finds the combined mileage by all racers to be -706.99 miles, a swing of -2316.39 miles! A couple of notes on this week's summary: First, I never received any update from enochbenjamin or ADarkerRattlingMe after Thursday, so I based their figures on the last statement posted by each. If they should provide an update that is different from those figures, I will publish an updated Week 2 summary. Second, amswak officially joined the race this week, but he had placed some trades in his account prior to posting the initial equity screen capture. Therefore, I am starting him at his revised equity level, and not counting his trades on Friday towards his total for The Race. Third, we have at least two folks who have posted their interest in joining The Race. I cannot officially enter anyone in The Race's field until a screen capture showing initial starting equity is posted to this thread. I know bathrobe is intending to take vacation, and will not be updating for about four weeks or so. If anyone of those declared has decided to drop out of The Race, please PM me so that the weekly summary can reflect that fact. If you are simply not trading for a period of time, please post that information to the thread so we know not to look for updated statements from you. Good Luck to all in the coming week! Best Wishes, Thales
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Welcome to The Race, worldtrader. In order to be officially entered, you need to post a screen shot of your account's latest daily statement. Your starting equity will be the equity shown in your inital post. Only trades that occur after an initial statement will be counted for the purpose of The Race. Good luck, and I hope you hit the million! Best Wishes, Thales
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I wasn't criticizing you for being a news trader, sicko. I was only saying that I am not a news trader, and if given a choice, I would prefer to be out of the market when news hits unless I am already sitting on a nice open profit and my position is in the direction of the overall trend. Many folks do fine trading the news. When I hear someone say they are "locking in $200 winners," I think either he is limiting out with a $200 profit, or moving his stop to capture a $200 profit if price retraces against is posiiton. That is not what I was saying at all. My profit objectives are based on current volatility and proximity of S/R, and stops are trailed behind what I call "natural stops," i.e. price levels where price had been halted by buying/selling. If I am stopped out or limited out with a $200 profit, that is pure coincidence. All I meant to imply was that if I find that my equity has increased by $200 or more per lot of size traded, I am inclined to call it a day and focus on other activities. I do not have an arbitrary $200/lot/day profit objective. I am also experimenting with an auto trailing stop feature. In these cases, stops are not necessarily coincident with ":natural stops." Best Wishes, Thales
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Interesting observation, sicko, and the answer is yes and no. What I mean by that is this: In addition to this little sandbox account, I trade my own futures account, and I also day trade an equities account. So, as far as this little account goes, my thinking has been if I can make $200/contract traded on a day, I'll shut it down. I do not cut my trades at $200. As you can see by my last trade, I want it to go to target or run for as far as it is willing to go. But If I hit a $200+ trade, or my cumulative profit, net of commissions and fees, is $200/lot traded, I call it quits. Going forward, if I am trading 2 lots, then if I hit a profit of $400/ or more, I'll likely shut her down. However, I will also be trying to let these trades run for $400-$600-$800 per lot, depending upon market conditions. So, to answer your question, if my first trade is a sufficiently large enough winner, I am inclined to stop trading this particular account, as my attention does get rather stretched between the three accounts. Also, I own a non-trading business that mostly runs itself, but there are several times each year when, like it or not, I have need to get dragged into its daily operations for a period of time, typically lasting 4-8 weeks. This is currently one of those times, and so my trading hours are basically the AM session of the US, and the AM session of Tokyo. This is why I say I will post a losing day in this account soon. Last Monday, for example, I had four losses in a row, and I was down $312.50 +commissions and fees. I only had about thirty minutes left before I had to go to a meeting related to my non-trading business, and I was sure I was gong to be posting a losing day. Then, what do you know - two back to back winners, one of which completely erased the prior four losses, the second of which put me up by almost $350 for the day after commissions and fees. Had those signals hit forty minutes later than they did, I'd have been gone and my book for the day would have been a loss. So, it is only a matter of time before I string together a set of losses one morning and I have to leave before I have the opportunity to take the trades that will erase them and put me positive. Tokyo has been a bit flat for me the last five months or so, though that 6E trade from yesterday was actually done Thursday night soon after the Tokyo open. I do not like to trade Fridays this time of year until September, and unlike you, I am not a "news trader," so I was happy to rest on my Tokyo laurels and not trade the US session yesterday, especially as it was NFP friday. Sorry for the long answer, but you did ask that I "please elaborate." Best Wishes, Thales
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I am extremely grateful to have had the opportunity to reach that initial doubling from $1500 to $3000 that I mentioned above. Within that milestone, were smaller mile markers: Allow me to round my figures to make this easier to type: My first goal was to reach a $600 profit on the initial $1500, which would bring the total equity to $2100. I was thankful to reach that goal during the Week One. My second mile marker was to reach a profit of $800 on the $2100, and that was reached this week. My next goal is to reach a profit of $1100 on the $2900, and that task is currently underway. If I were to assume no future intervening losses (an unreasonable assumption, to be sure) I am $163 into that goal, with $937 remaining to complete the my third mini-stage. This would bring the equity to $4000 upon completion of stage 3. An additional note on my mini-stages or mile markers: While the contest is conceived to be a 20 week run, my plan, and my mile markers are merely tied to equity levels, and not time. It is mere coincidence that I accomplished marker 1 during week one and marker 2 during week two. A marker could be reached in a day, or a month, or, heaven forbid, not at all! While I would like to hit the million in twenty weeks, it is more important to hit the million period, even if it takes 20 months instead. So the markers are not time oriented goals; they are merely profit objectives which allow me to break this most ridiculous goal into much more reasonable, though still quite challenging goals. My plan calls for adding contracts at $1500 increments. I now have $3000, so my plan calls for me to increase my trade size to two contracts from one. However, given the recent volatility, during the upcoming week, when I am trading, I will be swinging either one or two lots based upon the particular trade opportunity's initial stop requirement. Initial stops are based on price, as are stop adjustments (as evidenced by the variances among my last four losing trades, -10, -3, +1, and -14 ticks, respectively {I count a +1 stop out as a loss since I must split that tick with the broker. A trade does not hit my win column unless I earn at least one tick for myself}). This represents an adjustment to my initial plan: trade size will still be a function of units of equity, and my intention is to trade one lot/$1500. However, should the initial stop required exceed 14 ticks, trade size for that particular opportunity will be reduced by 1/2. Additionally, I am going to have my broker put a $750 daily loss limit on the account for Monday. If I suffer a loss of equity of $750 and the account falls to $2250 or lower, which would represent a loss of 50% of the profits to date, my position(s) will be auto-liquidated and all orders auto-canceled, and I will stop trading this account for that day. I will reduce size back to one contract, where it will stay until the account trades to a new equity high. Otherwise, my plan is intact - I am trading the same system with which I started, I am trading the same contracts with which I started, I am using the same money management with which I started. The only changes that have been made have been to help control and reduce the additional potential risk posed by the recent increase in volatility. Best Wishes, Thales