thalestrader

RichBois is a class act - one of the very, very few folks who provide a service to traders who really trades for himself based on the information that he provides his subscribers. And yes, he has always contributed to this forum and elsewhere without any mercenary motives.

Revised morning stats - I thought I was finished for the morning but I liked what I saw on the NDAQ and took it. First chart was a pic taken soon after I took a long position filled at 18.31, and the second shot is where I limited out at 18.58. Total profit for the morning $2.71/share Best to your trading, Thales

I'm out at 18.58, for +$0.27 NDAQ reached the 18.58 level, and I do not like to trade this close to noon, still less would I want to hold over lunch without a significantl greater profit cushion that 27 pennies. Best Wishes, Thales

I had a good morning, so I was going to answer your question, fishing. However, I just saw something I liked on the NDAQ chart and I took a leap. I can't post while in a trade, but I will answer you later. I've attached the chart of the NDAQ - I'm long at 18.31, stop loss is 18.26, and I'm loking to get at least to 18.46, if not 18.58. Best Wishes, Thales

Of course, any rally can fizzle out or rocket to anywhere, but given the gap lower and the cycle, odds favor a rally to yesterday's lows. Of course, odds are odds and this we may not get much of a raly at all today. I've been traing TTT since the beginning of 2007, though it was not until June 2007 that I really grapsed it and used it for my benefit. I now watch the ES as a spectator sport as my firm has me assigned to trade 100% stocks right now. I usually stay away from forums during the day, but I had a good morning, so I am "off the clock" 'til the aternoon, and against my better judgement I am goofing off over here. I've been a subscriber to RichBois's eBooks from the beginning of his service, and I do use TTT when trading any of the issues he covers in his Stock TTT eBook. Best Wishes, Thales

And the probe lower continues - no trade yet. Still high odds that we get back at least to yesterday's lows sometime today or tomorrow, but would need PA to provide signs of buying first, of course.

Watching ... watching

Hi Folks, Here are this morning's trades results with charts. Two trades, total profit $2.44/share Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Using TTT, I'd be watchful for a chance to buy the ES at 886.25-887.25 +/- a few ticks for a potential rally rally back to 899.25. Chart attached with my buy watch zone marked by the rectangle. This is a buy watch zone for me, and PA would need to confirm buying pressure coming into the market. I'll leave it to you fellow TTT traders to ponder the chart. Best Wishes, Thales

I am a long time Taylor trader, and I have lurked this thread since its inception. If I may make a suggestion that may please both yourself as well as the other participants in this thread - perhaps you could start a new thread called "Taylor According to Elovemer," and then you can post all you want to concerning your interpretation of Taylor. I really want to remain positive here at TL, and I agree with you - we do not need to see TL turn into ET. In that spirit, why not start your own thread where you can highlight your own use of Taylor. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Here are today's trades, with charts. Total trades: 2 Total Profit: $0.19/share total or $0.095/share traded, includes all fees. Best to your trading, Thales

Hi Chris, Yes, that would certainly have caught my interest. It is always easier for me to identify opportunites on a chart after the fact, but I have gone ahead anyway and identified three places where I could have been induced to be a buyer. I have marked each of these with an ellipse and numbered them 1-3 respectively. 1) I often will buy a higher high than the high of the first five minutes, especially when the look like RHT's open on 5-15. 2) I will often buy after the first 5 minute swing high is formed and a higher high is made. 3) I will often buy when a pullback to a prior high holds as support (this is the bar where you identify what you annotated as a three bar reversal on your chart). I'd like to think that had this stock been on my radar this past friday that I would have traded it as I outlined here. Of course, hindsight in trading is better than 20/20, and for every decent trade I make in real time I spot 10 after the fact when I go through my charts 600 or so charts at the end of the day. At any rate, it was a good experience for me to take a look at this chart, Chris, and I thank you for sharing it with me. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, Here are this morning's trades. I'm not sure that I'll be able to trade this afternoon. Again, all trades today were the same size (same share amount) per trade. Total profit = $1.83/share or $0.366/share traded Best Wishes, Thales

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say, "Of course!" Best to your trading, Thales

I must say that that is a rather outrageous assumption

Why do I not see the chart?

Hi there folks, Today was my first day with my new firm. Traded fixed size, i.e. fixed number of shares per trade. Profit listed is per share, not per trade, e.g. a -$0.03 loss is 3 cents per share * Number of shares traded. Today's stats: 7 trades 4 Losses 3 Wins Total profit for today, including costs, was +$1.08/share traded total. Best Trading to you all, Thales

No problem! I wish you the best in your trading, Thales

Here's an interesting article I copied year's ago from Linda Raschke. Capturing Trend Days.doc

So very true ... As in most areas of life, most folks never take the time to read the original thinker, and instead take watered down derivitive thinking for the real thing.

The risk is the same whther you are day trading on taking a long term position: Long Stock Positions: The risk is your entire cost basis. If you buy 100 shares of a $20 stock, you could lose the whole $2000 if the stock is halted, the company declares bankruptcy, and the level of insolvency is such as to wipe the shareholders out completely. Short Stock Position: You risk is, at least theoretically, infinite. If you are short 100 shares of a $20 stock, and the stock is halted to announce that it has just been bought out for an all cash deal at $300/share, then you must cover your short position at $30000. If the company announces a cure for AIDS, and it opens at $2000/share, then the cost to cover your short is $200,000. There is no limit to how much higher a stock can re-open at other than what a willing an able buyer agrees t pay a willing seller. Best Wishes, Thales

I am in absolute agreement with this statement. I would add here that you are really only guarded against a technological failure at an exchange. A year or two ago I had a trade on in the YM and the ecbot went down. I was short, and the market started to rally. I bout the ES and when the YM resumed trading I was closed at a loss substantially greater than my intial stop loss would have allowed. However, due to my ability to take an opposite position in the ES, my profits there off set most, though not all of my loss on the YM. However, if, for example, the markets were to close due to some unforseen event, then your supposed safety is removed, as you will have no avenue open on which to hedge. Also, you should be aware of liquidity risk. When the yankees pitcher flew his plane into a building in Manhattan a few years ago, the ES dropped a large number of points, visible only on a tick chart where there were large gaps between trades at prices. There was no liquidity on the way down. Again, you would not have been able to prevent a larger than planned for loss because all the futures had simlar sudden intrday gaps. Risk is everywhere. You can accept it, guard against it, and manage it as best you can. But the only way to eliminate risk and insure yourself completly against a loss due to the outlier event is not to participate at all. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Abe, I thought I had answered your question in the post I will quote here: I thought your question was "Can a stock be halted and then re-open against your position?" I answered that affirmatively. This, of course, is the risk you take when you trade equities, which, as you smartly point out in your response concerning hedging, is company specific, and not a general market risk. And I agree with you that it is not possible truly to hedge an equity position through other stocks, etf's, futures, etc. You can hedge through options. Of course, that hedging ability would not be available to you under the day trading scenario you described because if the stock is halted, so too will trading in the derivitives based upon the underlying. So, I agree with you concerning the ability to hedge a stock position. However, I thanked sevensa because I thought his statement concerning this risk was spot on. Whether you are taking a long or short equity position as a day trade, a swing trade, or for a longer term pull, you are open to the risk of which you speak. No one can tell you how much a stock can gap against you. If you are long, your total risk is limited to your cost basis for the long stock position. If you are short, you risk is, theoretically, infinite. So, your real concern is: the answer is an absolute yes. In another post I stated that I have had two instances where I was in a day trade when a stock was halted and did not re-open until the next day. In both cases the stocks opened in my favor. In the first case, I was long a stock at $46 that was halted when trading at $48 and re-opened the next day at $58. In the other instance, I was short a stock at $118 that was halted at $115. It re-opened the next morning in the $40's! Again, when you are long a stock you risk is limited to your cost basis, regardless of whether the trade is a day trade, swing trade, or long term pull. If you are short, the stock can go against you a theoretically infinite amount. I didn't spell this out specifically because I didn't realize that this is what you were asking, not because I do not know the risk involved in trading stocks. Abe, I hope I have now answered to your satisfaction. Again, to reiterate, I agree with sevensa in that if you are not comfortable with the risk, then do not trade stocks. That is not an ultimatum, it is simply a fact based upon a sentiment shared by traders throughout history including, but by no means limited to such legends as Livermore, Wyckoff, Neill, Rhea, Baruch, Darvas, and O'Neill. So, while I did not agree with sevensa's suggestions regarding the possibility of successfully hedging a stock position in a day trade situation, I do agree wholeheartedly with the accompanying statement concerning risk - and that, in my opinion was worth a thank you. While I would like to keep this post positive, I would like to say that your finding my thanking of Sevensa's post fishy has everything to do with your lack of satisfaction with the responses to your concerns and nothing to do with my motives, as you seemingly imply. In other words, your statement was uncalled for and you were not right in making such a statement. Again, I thought I had answered your questions adequately in my previous responses. If you still feel something is lacking, simply ask. Best Wishes, Thales

No. I have no access to news during before and during trading hours. It is just me, my charts, and my trading platform.

The scenario you suggest could indeed happen - you could be short a stock that is halted and re-opens higher, or you could be long a stock that is halted and re-opens lower. However, I think that so long as you are only shorting stocks moving down on higher than usual volume and only going long stocks that are moving up on heavy volume, then the chances of being on the wrong side such a surprise is remote. These stocks are moving in those directions for a reason, and that reason is that whatever news pending that is going to cause trading to be halted is already moving those stocks in the direction to which they will respond to the news once the rest of us become privy to it. I have had two stocks halted on me over the years, and in each case I was on the right side of the market. In each case, the news pending that caused trading in these stocks to be temporarily suspended was likely already known by some of the larger institutions - hence these stocks were already being bought or sold heavily prior to being halted.