thalestrader

Hi Folks, No stock trades today. I did an ES trade, the details of which may be found in excruciating detail on Brownie's Volume thread. Net 4.5 points/contract. My daughter was 1/2 today. She finishes at $62.54, up $2.22 from yesterday's 60.32. Have a happy and safe weekend! Best Wishes, Thales

Thanks, but until one of you Iterative Refinement folks becomes willing to show me, on a 5 minute es chart, which is, after all, the chart you folks claim to use for trading, 1) an actual trade, 2) an explanation in a shared language for the basis of the trade decision and 3) at what price you entered, I am done with you. I mean really, you would think I was speaking an alien language. Getting one of you folks to name a price is like pulling teeth. The best I can get is here's a "sample of P3 trade on Friday chart#1 is the moment when I enter chart#2 is where I am taking profits....My stop was 2 points." P3? Moment? I don't know how your broker does it, but mine calculates my pnl based on price, not "moments." I don't mean to sound rude, but I just do not have the time to look into an approach that can have no utility so long as you folks seek to conceal more than you are willing to reveal. Best Wishes, Thales

Rather than sharing your chart reading skills in real time, you chose to leave this thread alone all week. You chose not to share one live example of the method you claim to be "the first step to consistent profitability". Why not post at 9:29 am this morning that you were going to short the market on open? Why not post at any time today that you were looking to cover at the 893.50? Why not share something that would show folks how you apply your method at the"hard right edge of the chart"? I do not think the request unreasonable. Your charts and channels and fractals are not intuitive and readily apparent to the uninitiated with your FTT's and CCC's and HVS's and FBO's etc. You see, other folks may post after the fact charts, with explanations of their aproach, and the explanation is readily apparent and easily understood (it is not too difficult to understand the concept of a MA cross or a trendline break). It wouldn't matter if that person really traded it or not, because one can see how and why such a decision would have been reasonable as price action unfolded. But that is not the case with your method. Why not spend a day or two here or at ET and trade live. Post your trades live. No one expects every trade to be profitable. But if your method is real, then it should be easily communicable and able to be shared in real time. I do not know what you expect of folks. I'm sure you'll respond and say that you don't expect anything. But then why bother? What is the point of your posts here at TL? If you are posting because you wish to help folks, great! Help us! Show us how your method is to be applied in real time. I stand by my words: Anyone can mark up a dead chart after the closing bell and look like a genius. Anyone can claim to possess the key to trading success. I have seen many post mortem charts and I have heard many make such claims. I have not seen any willingly make live trade calls and share the reasoning behind those calls publically (at least not without charging a fee). I know that your method has many parts and seems very complicated. But certainly you are the master of it. If anyone has the ability to employ the method in real time and thus to demonstrate its effectiveness at anticipating immediate price trends and movement, it is you. Best Wishes, Thales

There was nothing sly about my request that the person in question either put up or shut up with respect to showing how his system applies to real time trading decisions. I myself have been too often the victim of the truly sly. I did not judge. I asked that if the parties in question really possessed such a key to profitability, then, please, share it with the rest of us. If I help even one other hopeful trader from falling for more of the same promises and delusions that I fell for, then I will have done well by my fellow humans. You unfairly judged me. I, after all, have no chat room, web site, educational materials, etc. I do not seek to be anyone's mentor. I do not want students, followers or disciples. I have nothing to sell, and little to give. But what I have, I give freely. Only one deserves such disciples, and I try always to remember the lessons of he taught, and in particular, I am reminded of the lesson of Matthew 7:1. In then end, the measure you give will be the measure you get. Best Wishes to all, Thales God Bless America

No problem, I hope you might find even a small part of it useful, and if not, I hope you at least found it somewhat interesting. Best Wishes, Thales

Checking my trade blotter, my average fill on entry was more than .25 lower than I had thought, so my average profit before commissions is only 4.5 points.contract traded. Sorry about the misinformation, as it was not my intention to mislead anyone. Best Wishes, Thales

+2.5 points on 1/2 and +7.25 points on 1/2 = +4 5/8 points/contract traded

Stop lowered to 95.50

This thing is starting to feel like a long term investment for me here. With the break lower, my stop is lowered to 896.50, and my limit is still 891.75

I'm going outside for a while, so I have the positon bracketed with oco 899.25stop and 891.75 limit. I'll check in a bit later.

Trading is about making decisions as to how and when to bet on where price is going. All you need to make those decisions is right here on the chart. In other words, let price, the very thing about which you are betting, tell you what you should do.

Price struck within a tick of the 99quarter stop - still short and stop is still 899.25

Stop on last 1/2 is 899.25 This would result in: +2.5 points on half and +3.25 on 1/2 for an average profit of of 2 5/8 points per contract traded (not including commish).

If this rally attempt also fizzles, and if price makes a lower low, 895.50-896 (represented by the second smaller rectangle drawn on the attached chart) would be the next minor support area from which another bottom attempt may launch (or not). A decisive break of 895.50 should clear the way to a test of the 3.25 point range betwen 891.25-894.50

I am not calling this a double bottom (though it may be), but I do want to point out how price came down into the 896.25-.75 (represented o the chart by the rectangle) and immdeiately found (at least momentary support). In fact, if I needed the money, I could justify taking profits right here (let's call it 897.75). Of course, the fact that that level was drawn on the chart 25 minutes prior to price reaching it would have given anyone more than enough time to have a limit order at 896.75 or 896.50 which would have easily been filled, and a rsting order at 896.25 that had been there for 25 minutes may also have had a shot at getting filled. All this by way of using price to anticipate its immediate future course, and not relying on magical mystical machinations to divine the future. Certainly a stop on the remaining position at 901 is currently warranted. This would result in +2.5 points on 1/2 and +1.75 points on the second half for an average profit of 2 1/8 points/contract traded. Stop loss is now 901.

As I have not been showing volume at all, it might be assumed that I would fall under the second option above, along with Brownie. However, I do believe that volume, especially on daily, weekly, and monthly analysis of stock price movements, can be very useful, and provide important information. I have not found it to be useful for intraday day trading. Here is the 5 minute ES with volume. I was hoping that at some point this morning one of the Volumiati would appear and share his or her views on how to trade the ES today based upon volume analysis rather than price action. I'd really rather see and hear the analysis in real time as the action unfolds. Afterall, anyone can mark up a dead chart after the fact and look like a genius.

If the rally attempt fizzles out and we get a retest of the lows, 896.25-896.75 would be an area to wacth for a potenital double bottom. If price goes there, I'd be watching this for clues as to managing my existing short position, and not to try to pick a botom from which to go long. I still anticipate that the gap does not get filled today (though it might) and that the market will close near the price lows of the day (though it might close at its high).

+2.5 points closed on half position stop at -1.25 points on half position

Stop on 1/2 is 900.25, and stop on second 1/2 is 904: This will net .75 points/contract traded less commish if both stops are taken out.

Not much progress lately - tapped 897.25 as five minute low twice now, so 5.5 points max from entry. I will take some off at 900.25 and hold the rest with a BE stop

With the lower low (albeit only slightly lower), and price having dropped 5.25 points from entry, there is no reason for this to be any worse than a breakeven trade. Someone once said, (and I think it was Victor Sperandeo) that "If you don't bet, you can't win; and if you lose all yours chips, you can't bet." Best Wishes, Thales

So far trend down is in effect, but price is hanging around that 901 level (first blue arrow). So currently short, but watchful for a reversal. I would trade this by watching for what happens should price bounce as high as 904 (1.25 ponts above entry) and be willing to exit and then re-enter short if warranted. Otherwise, I am holding short.

Here is what I consider to be a very real gap ... others would say that the gap does not exist and you can just imagine it is not there. Here is how I would trade this: Sell stop a tick below first five minute low (902.75), with a stop loss above the high of the first five minutes (or the HOD is price makes a higher high prior to making a lower low). I would be watchful at the blue arrow lines for signs that price was reversing, or to add to the postion on a break. Will it be a profitable trade? I do not know. But I have an entry, I have a stop loss, and I have potential profit targets. Anyone can see these without needing to learn anything terribly esoteric. If the gap does not begin to fill within the first 15 -20 minutes of trading, I anticipate (anticipate, not predict) that it will not fill today, and that price will close in the direction of the gap, and that there is a high liklihood of a trend day down whereby the market opens at or near its high and closes at or near its low. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Folks, A little fearful symmetry for me today: +72 pennies on BLL and -36 pennies on FCX for a net of +36 pennies on the day for me. My daughter took a 20+ tick profit on 2 microlots of the EURUSD to end today up $4.36 from the previous closing balance of $55.96. Closed trade equity is now $60.32. Best Wishes, Thank You, Thales

Very good analysis, Db - Clearly written and readily understandable. Thank you, Thales