markl67

Yes, I think a mechanical system would be best for my controlling type personality - set it and forget it. So that's what I tried to come up with - breakout strategy using 5000 share bar on the TF. Backtested back to Jan 4 with great results - 69% win with a 1:1.2 ratio. So, here's me a couple weeks ago, "oh yeah baby, I got this thing, screw you corporate america". So, I began real time trading it and promptly took 3 losses in a row to the tune of $450 each, so I stopped and said WTH. The last time this thing took 3 losses in a row was 5 months ago! So, then I start thinking about conspiracy theories, mkt manipulation, etc....

I can feel the "pull" - I'm not going to be one of those statistics...

LOL - Gin and tonic here...

I wouldn't say I'm long gone, but I do have one foot out the door for sure. I'm basically watching and demo trading several strategies that I've "backtested". I use the term backtested loosely because I've seen that backtested strategies have also failed for me in real time - why? I don't know...and trust me the backtesting has been thorough - tick by tick through various trends and volatility - ad nauseum. As someone pointed out perhaps my expectations are skewed and/or I just have a hard time stomaching draw downs (risk averse). I'm keeping in touch with the markets for now in between looking at job ads, sending out resumes and talking to recruiters about my skills and why I would be the best person for the job, etc. etc.

Funny, I've played this trading chart game, and I'll be damned if I don't knock it out of the park after a couple drinks vs. completely sober... http://chartgame.com/play.cgi?8ndkhv

Anyone ever try trading with a good buzz going on...?

Are you talking about margin requirements? There are different margin requirements for "patterned day traders" which is a term used in stock trading. I think firms have different rules/requirements regarding futures trading for those who employ stops and don't hold overnight vs. those who do. I'm not sure if these requirements are regulatory or firm risk management related.

The way I understand it is, if the trade goes south, the loss amount should not exceed 2% of your trading capital. i.e. $20,000 x 2% = $400.

Alright, so I took a few days off after the long weekend and I logged on out of curiosity - lot of interesting/varying responses. I sent out my resume for several, fairly crappy looking job ads, so we'll see. Just sitting here looking at these charts today and thinking about a statement that I read in a Steenbarger book where he says that trading and/or markets must be your calling. I don't feel that....unless I suppose I could make a boat load of cash and help others, etc. My problem was/is I feel like this MUST work and I think that's a dangerous mindset as I'm burning through my severance pay and savings. Anyway, thanks for the replies/support.

Well, after 18 months of researching, demo trading, live trading, webinars, trading groups, books, magazines, I have finally decided to throw in the towel. I hate giving up, but I have a family to support and this just ain't workin', so back to looking for another 9-5 hum drum job - oh well. Good luck to everyone...

Thanks for the responses. I got a private message from someone telling me to avoid putting on an OSO type trade making the stop public as that could ruin a good strategy. I guess insinuating that stops are intentionally "run"...and, to be honest the "consperacy theory" part of my brain has thought that could be true. Opinions on that...do you think stops are intentionally run?

I'm using Tradestation. Looking at the current day's activity, the range bars are forming bla bla, but if I close the session and come back the bars are different using the same exact range/criteria, etc.

I like the way range bars appear in real time, but I've noticed that once you close the chart or session and come back, the chart is different - the bars are not the same as they were. I don't know why that is, but it has prevented me from back testing using range bars.

Carter has mentioned exiting a squeeze trade on 2 TTM bars in the opposite color of your direction. I receive his free daily videos and not to dis the man, but it seems like every other week he's showing a chart with a different time frame using a different indicator - now it's the TTM wave. Back to the original post, I didn't see anyone mention using tick levels to determine trend or strength of the trend...

I just went live (real cash) a couple weeks ago with the TF using a volume bar breakout strategy which I backtested to Jan 4th with a 70% win ratio. The trouble is to achieve that win ratio, my risk/reward is 1:1, sometimes slightly negative and when the losers occur they are "large" which shakes my confidence to be honest. This strategy calls for basically putting on the trade and walking away which I think is best for my personality as I tend to micro-manage, but when the losers occur I say to myself "damn it, if I had been watching I could have managed this better" bla bla.... Not to ramble on or hi-jack the thread, but I'm interested if others have tried this "walk away" approach...?

As I put in another post, when I brainstorm and think of a possible system/strategy to backtest I immediately go to February and March and test these two months first and see how it worked during lower volatility periods.

I also trade the TF and have been examining and back testing several different strategies. I'm not sure what your system is, but it would be interesting to see how it performed in February and March of this year. Many of the strategies I've been looking at fell way short during those months due to the many tight range bound days.

Yeah, I've been backtesting going back to Jan 4th various different strategies for weeks now - 8 to 10 hours a day. I feel like my eyes are gonna roll out of my head. I'm really hoping one of these days to actually find that edge...

This is a joke...right...?

Yep - thanks, I've recently found that out, for example backtesting has shown the ES reacts well fading the prior day highs and lows whereas the Russell - not so much, however, the Russell reacts better with the prior day close.

Yes, a little more explanation would be appreciated - I can't picture exactly what you're describing, but I do like the 95% overlap statistic...thanks.

Yep, I have seen the same thing on the ES which surprises me given the extreme volume. Like today, I had an order to buy at 1102.5 (prior low) and I couldn't get filled on 1 contract after several failed "touches" so I moved up 1 tick and got filled. But on the Russell with far less volume I seem to get filled almost instantly most of the time...

Ok - thanks for the replies everyone. Yes, I must change my approach. Trading breakouts fuels my lack of patience and my need to be right.

Thanks - hopefully attachment works. (5 minute chart from yesterday) Note at 1100 how price breaks thru but then quickly retreats. I was buying the breakout of resistance with target at next level of 1101.5. I'm determining the levels by scrolling backwards to view what price did previously at these levels and picking out what appear to be key levels.

After having thrown away every indicator from charts many months ago and deciding to strictly trade ranges I have a question for more experienced traders. Would you share how you trade around s/r levels? My main problem seems to be setting stops. For example, resistance is at lets say 1100 on the ES. I set an order to buy just above 1100 on what appears to be an up-trending move and get filled, only to get the usual head fake and watch price decline below 1100 and continue to decline, then get stopped out only to watch price reverse in my direction. And, of course, if I hadn't put on the order at all then price would blast thru without me on board, etc. I know there's no cookie cutter answer or solution, but any suggestions are welcome - thanks.