snowbird

Two images 1st shows MacD divergences per the indicator in this thread 2nd shows MacD divergences filtered using TAMs moving trend (linear regression mov avg?) basically divergences would only be shown in the direction of the moving average. snowbird

I'd be interested in the ability to add a moving average or linear moving average to define trend, and only show divergences in the direction of the trend. Greatly cuts down on the signals... but increases the probability of continuation. snowbird

Was wondering if you planned to join the fun by starting your own thread. This should be a good one. I would have to say that that my own personal beliefs and fears about the market are my biggest obstacles. For example: right or wrong, I believe that any purely automated method of trading that I personally would be able to devise could work for a while (most likely during the test and development period!), but would eventually loose it's edge due to changing markets or unanticipated events. This belief has ultimately led me down the path of studying price action, support and resistance, and the underlying auction theory that drives the markets, in search of methods that resonate with me personally. My fear is that I won't be smart enough, confident enough, or emotionally strong enough to apply those methods in a profitable way over the long term, recognizing and adapting as necessary to the ebb and flow of the markets over time. Until I can prove that to myself... I am only left with false beliefs, and unfounded fears. snowbird

Interesting chart. What do the numbers within the chart represent? snowbird

How about initial targets should the bear resume. 9000 on the Dow?... 950 on the S&P? others? snowbird

Sicktrader, Thales poses an interesting question. From a gamblers perspective, are there techniques you are employing now that will change as your account grows (other than those you have already mentioned such as increasing contracts on a week by week basis... and decreasing during draw downs to avoid risk of ruin.) Do the stakes get higher as the race progresses, or do you follow your plan be what it may, regardless of the end result. snowbird

I have three questions I believe relate to money management which is a key part of this thread. It appears that your RR is on average 3x for trades that go to target. How did you select the 30 tic target when putting this particular system together, and did you create a rule that passes on trades where the initial risk is too large? When your account grows so that you can trade multiple contracts, have you developed additional money management rules you will be able to employ? snowbird

Do you have examples of a range testing vs a range contraction day? Is a range contraction day basically a wedge... so the day after would likely be expansion (i.e higher probability for successful trades in this particular system the day after a range contraction day?) snowbird

Interesting... most advocate a slow stoch for entry. Care to elaborate how you employ it as a filter? snowbird

LOL... a fair response to my prompt of Brownsfan! Although it would be a dream to meet traders I have come to have such an immense respect for on this board should any achieve the goal; I must humbly remain a spectator of the games since I am still on a very steep learning curve in my own journey to develop a method that matches my nature. I am also selfishly aware, that exposure to methods of various traders will only help in that journey, so I sincerely hope you and sicktrader are successful in getting others to join the fun... Thanks kindly for the invite. snowbird

This should be very interesting (especially the initial instruments traders pick.. sounds like sicktrader is giving it a go with currencies! Thales, it looks like you picked ES as one of your instruments. Found this very curious given the previous discussions in this thread about how much it tends to back-fill, which led me to believe it was more difficult to trade with your method. Brownsfan... are you in?.. would be very curious to see what someone could do with oil... and such a thread is certain to have some entertainment value! snowbird

What type of action are you watching for on the DOM during the test of the wave 3 extreme (or whatever S/R level you are watching), and how would what you are watching for differ between a reversal versus continuation of the trend? snowbird

Would you care to expound on what you personally found "important to look for"?

something that puzzelled me at first about TTT that I 'd like input on. Trading rules applied to an instrument or it's inverse (take etf's for example.... SPY vs SH or QQQQ vs PSG) should not contradict each other. So is it too simplistic to count an SS day as essentially a Buy day on the inverse index, a Buy day as essentially an SS day on the inverse index, and treat the day in between (S day in this case) as typically a transition day between SS and BU or vice versa? It appears that taking into consideration the additional TTT rules (Buy day violations, opens below or above previous days highs or lows, etc., that this high level simplistic view would result in the fewest contradictions in the more specific rules day by day. All thoughts welcome. snowbird

Not been my experience at all.... spend some time here if your serious about trading and willing to put in the time... the brokers and vendors are easy to spot, and most don't stick around too long.

The above does actually resonate with me, if that bias actually gives one an edge. I know many traders will say that any bias is bad, but I often find that when I'm in the middle of a trade I will see a pattern, set of candlesticks, etc develop that will cause me to exit the trade short of my objective, only to see price rebound and continue on to the original target. I know this is due to my inexperience, but until I gain confidence I can see how a simple rule based on an edge that may indicate something like "longs only today" could be very powerful to me personally, which is one reason I'm interested in learning more about this. snowbird

Your comment on risk is intriguing. When studying a new idea or method, I often personally find it helpful to concentrate on the setups that present the highest probability or most fundamental application first, and learn this well so it becomes ingrained or second nature before moving on to the more subtle details. I think one of the reasons for the success of Thales thread is that he started with a simple basic 123 pattern. With Taylor, there appears to be so much to take in that many have abandoned the quest. What have you found core to TTT that you would recommend a newbie to this method concentrate on first. (this question applies to all who have mastered or incorporated TTT in their own trading) snowbird

OK, In regards to my last post, I did a search and found this comment from you last year in the TTT Thread. "I do agree with you on what Taylor said, however in my discovery of the Positive 3 day cycle, I found that we can sometime Long on the SS day. If the SS day opens below the Buy day low we do have very high odds of getting a rally to at least the Buy day low, at which point stops have to be tighten." So in summary, there are cases where the price action of previous days would indicate a long on a SS day could be considered. snowbird

richboise, Sorry, but I'm very confused by your last post. I thought Taylor only advocated shorts on a SS day (no longs) which would indicate the only trade that should have been considered per Taylor was a short from the 80.4 region down to 79.5 or 79 if aggressive. Am I missing an important point of the Taylor method? snowbird

Just had to mention that you can count me as one for whom this thread "really matters". I have gained more from this thread (for free and real time!) than I have ever learned from all of the courses, systems, "market secrets" and so called "gurus" out there that I shilled out real hard earned money for. I know there are many more reading nightly just like me. Keep up the good work Thales. Shun (ignore) the non-believers! snowbird

This hit home with me (I bet I won't be the only one this makes sense to) I will note that there appears to be another natural spot on your chart where many would have moved a stop (the three hammers and a hangman around 13:25). Interestingly enough, the short here failed and a the subsequent long rallied swiftly into a tripple top after breaking back up past where all the short traders that likely had a stop (above the high of the hangman bar.) Thanks for the insight... it was very valuable to me. snowbird

Don, Also like the clean picture!!.... but would be even more interested in how you select your entries. They all follow the H/L/HL or L/H/LH of a "Thales trade", but you often select just one candle as the last HL or LH... or sometimes two candles with tails, rarely more. I've noticed this not just on the recent chart posted, but on previous real time charts you've posted here as well. snowbird