snowbird

7 uncles from me my wife my son my daughter my granddaughter my dog and the possum in the backyard we bought because we don't have Geico (not sure whether he is dead or not, oh there he is! That's 7!)

Memphis ""Tell me are you a Christian child?" and I said "Ma'am I am tonight"

It's a turntable bridge!!!!!

A train-ship!

Siuya nailed it! I prefer the alternate answer (as it requires the thought process of swapping camels... and doesn't necessarily kill them off in the process!)

There were three men in the desert. Each had a camel. They all made a bet that whoever's camel could reach the finish line last was the bravest and most worthy man. For days the three men rode there camels as slow as possible and were beginning to run out of water and feel the effects of the hot sun. Luckily, they spotted an oasis and eventually reached it. at this oasis, the men regained there strength, and talked to a very respected wiseman. One telling the man about the problems they were facing (due the the bet) they jumped onto the camels and rode off as fast as they could. What advise did the wise man give these three men, without causing them to call off the bet????

agreed.... we all have biases... for instance, in regards to your original question on what would happen if the US lost it's reserve status, my personal bias is that such a loss would ultimately result in a shift in power as well... but that such shift would occur much slower than many estimate, because those in power will do anything within their power not to lose it! I would love to see a discussion about topics such as this, as these discussion expand my own horizons and can dispell personal biases I may have, but I would find it very hard to relate this to trading, as trading typically involves much shorter time-frames. I believe this may be a major factor in why such discussions peter out on these forums.

[quote name=Originally Posted by joshdance » Some of those who "crashed the world" are still in power, and some of those who tried to stop it are blamed.[/quote] I didn't watch the video either... but searches on both Brooksley E. Born and Raghuram Rajan will bring up good info on how they tried to warn of he impending risk prior to 2008 and were shunned by those in the establishment with more power.

So if I understand your explanation and matrix correctly. Today (Monday May 16th) was a BH HMF day on most of the US major indexes, with the high being made 1st in the session, followed by a penetration of Fridays low and then a decline the rest of the day. There actually could have been two potential trades today... long when price opened below yesterdays low (target yesterdays low (this is the rally portion of the larger overall decline for the session so one must be nimble)... and a second possible short trade after the high made in the morning session (this is the larger "decline" portion of the session with a larger potential profit as well?) Given this PA and Taylor theory (price never hit Taylor upper objectives for the day and closed weak), we would now be in at least a short term downtrend, and therefore would be biased for the same action tomorrow? Your insights are welcome if I have interpreted incorrectly. snowbird One other question

I assume by "D" and "R" sessions you are referring to declines and rally's". You discuss "columns" in reference as well, so I imagine you tracking these sessions on a daily basis, possibly in a spreadsheet, to gauge market strength, weakness and response within the cycle? Thanks, snowbird

Steve, Both setups show price accelerating out of a small base of "demand", which is determined by the way price left the base (many more buyers than sellers). It appears your strategy would be to wait for price to return to the top of the "base", as there are likely more buyers still at that level who either missed the first train when it rapidly left the station, or were just not able to get all of their original orders filled due to the limited number of sellers during the "basing" period. I would set a stop loss below the area you defined, and targets at the next visible supply level (unknown in the case of the first example). In the second (bond) example, possible targets around 122'10 and 122'16. I am curious about one thing in the levels/bases you have outlined.... why do you determine the lower level from the point of origin of the price rise, instead of the pivot point of the last low price made? snowbird

I hope to become the person my dog thinks I am! snowbird

Contributors like Kiwi are the only reason we frequent this particular forum. I sincerely hope to see the familiar coco"nuts" icon hear again soon! snowbird

My year end guess SPX: 1450 INDU: 13000 COMPX: 2975

really enjoyed following this one way to hang in there! snowbird

Do you mean the one that is right under "My account" on the right hand side of the page when you 1st log-in? You can get to it by clicking on "unread posts" My Account snowbird 118 Unread Posts since your last visit. You last visited: 01-12-11 at 3:55 am Private Messages: 0 New PMs.

Interesting tight stop setup for a large potential reward vs. risk Are you targeting the 144444 area or going for a smaller swing?

For Mar 31st SPX 1201 COMPX 2505 INDU 11997 Two days and only 27 more people to go! snowbird

Consolidation was visible on the charts for all to see... but price had not broken out at the time and could have potentially broken either way ultimately. What factors (other than seasonality) put you squarely in the "easy bet to be a bull" camp as you so positioned back in September "Well, this is a bull market, you know! - Mr. Partridge" Was it the volume and HL on the 1st of the month? snowbird

Could you please also resolve the spamming. Thought you had nipped it in the bud the last couple of days, but just logged on to find over half of the "latest threads" and 6 out of 7 of my new "unread" posts to be of the "Daily Nifty" variety again. There is absolutely nothing nifty about wading through all those unnecessary posts day in and day out, and it seriously detracts from an otherwise very good site. snowbird

agreed.. draw downs are an expected normal part of trading. a little curious when looking at some of your past trades... do you identify areas of supply and demand on your charts before placing trades, along with a plan of what to do depending on how price reacts to those levels? Those levels can of course be exhausted/broken, and often must fail for a trade you place to work, but they usually will not fail on the first test. just something to think about if you are going back to the drawing board.

I second a vote for the "most viewed" threads list on the home page and add a request to perform searches by poster that will bring up the exact posts. For example... if I search on "kiwi" or "jperl" or "brownsfan", I want to bring up links to the exact pages of their most recent posts instead of links to the entire thread they happen to be buried in. There may be a way to do this already that I am not aware of.

I certainly hope so.... enjoyed the thread!

been thinking about this one and came up with one possible scenario: in the first case (assuming price has been climbing), the only thing that comes to mind, is that price must have entered an area of resting supply, that caused a. a large move in a short period of time as price rushed to meet these pending orders, but was then stopped short due to the shear lack of buyers to move any higher (demand is literally is "exhausted" from the previous drive, and completely dries up.) b. a quick and violent reversal as price falls back into the temporary "vacuum" created by the lack of demand This could also be viewed as a V top, which can be rare in many markets. Are there more common scenarios you were referring to in your example or in some markets? snowbird

sounds like you are primarily a trend trader instead of a scalper (emotions involved with beginners trying to do both can be disastrous unless their trading plan involves taking off a set amount at a predetermined level every time.) Curious therefore, about the category "scalp" What market conditions would tell you to scalp, instead of letting your trade run to it's predetermined plan of targets or stops. I pose this question as I believe it goes to the heart of the thread. snowbird