icecool

Very long time since I made last post. Thought about posting one chart. Stock name is masked intentionally as I am having position. My views may be biased. My way of viewing chart. Chart is self explanatory

Dr. Gary Dayton had been actively posting in VSA thread here under the nickname Eiger. Very useful posts. If some one interested, he can refer VSA theads in TL forums for more details

You won't forget the teacher after leaving the school, that too the one who taught you so clearly and affectionately. Would you?

Where is Db? I have not seen his post since so many months. Am I missing something?

Sam, You are welcome. I conciously decided to take this route (i.e. interpreting chart on price, volume and time data alone) after finding of the uselessness of indicators. Anyway, a huge debate has already taken place elsewhere in this forum as to whether indicators are useful or not. I donot wish to start another one in this thread. As you rightly said, there are many veteran traders here. They are the leading lights. We shall try to learn from them as much as we could grasp. Only on going through the posts here, I have realised some of my mistakes. Sure, there will be many more from my side. But as and when I get new information and opportunity to correct myself, I shall try to incorporate them and post them.

Db, Thanks for the valuable inputs. Yes. Now I notice that there are many many more things that I have to answer before developing a trading plan. In fact, I had never thought of these questions earlier. Now I realise that I must answer them for my own good and for my own survival. Now I am back to drawing board. I shall try to find answers to the questions raised in your post.

Db, Very insightful questions. Thanks. Honestly, all that I could gather and believe by "trading plan" is how to select stock for trading (i.e. identifying trading opportunity), devising an entry method, due attention to risk, management of trade (if entry is made) and exit. Money making is one of my goal, though not the most important goal. Right now I am trying to read the charts correctly and to devise a "trade plan" as I have understood that concept and as I have explained earlier. I am concentrating more on survival, i.e. preserving capital even after having several trades and to learn lessons from each and every trade I take in this process. I am not aiming for any homerun. I have noticed that there is vast difference between paper trades and real trades. I am also trying to control my emotions by taking real trades. What are things that I have missed?

I have not stopped following ICICIBank. While going through charts in the morning, I just came across Crompton Greaves chart and found interesting. This trade was just accidental and also to test whether I can form and execute any trade plan at all. Blowfish had pointed out that I must have a proper trade plan and I am lacking there.

I was shown door This is how my stop placed just below 130 triggered In hindsight, that candle where my stop for the remaining half triggered, appears to be a perfect shakeout. But discipline is discipline. Stop has to be revised only upwards and not downwards, since this is a long trade. I notice that there was a valid 1 – 2 – 3 pattern when my stop was hit. Plus this pattern took place right after hitting the area which I had noted earlier at the start of the day as probable resistance area. Plus, there was a break of that demandline as well. Once I see these things in realtime, I shall certainly close my long trade rather than guessing as to whether this candle will be a shakeout or not. That is how my trade ended. Lessons learned are 1. I have to learn much more as to trade selection, especially risk reward ratio. 2. I have omitted accounting for slippages and commission at the time of planning the trade. 3. Whether my stop placement technique could have been managed in a better way is still to be examined and if necessary, fine tuning is to be done. 4. On trade management side, I have not considered adding on to my position (i.e. pyramiding my position) once the trade moves in my favour. Since, I am yet to study this aspect, I did not dare to attempt to do it in this trade. This is how the chart looked just 9 minutes before the close of the market. Just for curiosity and to for record purpose

Later on ………. The above screenshot was taken around 2.00 P. M. Now I note that move up from 126.50 level so far has been quite laboured one. I also note that price has hit my minimum initial target of 132. So I sold half of my holding and for the remaining half, stop has been moved up just below the small congestion area right above 130, which happened in between 1.15 P. M. and 1.45 P. M. Questions are Has the stop been placed at the right place? Would it not have been better if it were to be placed at the break of the latest demandline drawn in the chart? If I am placing my stop under that latest demandline, am I not deviating from my original trade plan, where the idea was to move the stop along with the higher pivot lows? So I prefer to go along with the original plan and that is why I place my stop just below 130.

Hmmmm… It appears that when that last screenshot was taken, the last candle had not closed at that time. There is difference between static chart and dynamic chart. I am using only static chart for the time being. The lowest low candle (which happened around 11.10 A. M. in the above chart) and the next candle taken together convey one clear message. A high volume, high voltage drama of rejection of the low of 126 level. Interestingly, if that incomplete candle screenshot and this screenshot (with that candle having lowest low completed and its next candle also completed) are compared, this rejection of low of 126 level becomes very clear. In the initial incomplete candle chart one attempt has already been made to break 126 and it was unsuccessful. In this last chart, I see that another attempt was made to break 126 and that was also unsuccessful. All this is happening right at support level of 126. Next candle is having huge volume, wide range and it closes on the high. Do I need any more telephone calls to inform me that low of 126 has been rejected and now the price is going to move upwards? So I entered long on the break of the supply line right there around 128. Stop initially as planned was placed at 124.75. I notice that a nice trading range has developed after breaking that supply line. Once the price moved above this trading range, I moved my stop up just below that trading range and my present stop rests at 127.50/-. Before moving further, a review of what I had thought initially and what has happened so far. Aggressive plan was to enter long upon the break of the high of lowest low candle, which I did not. Conservative plan was to enter upon the break of the supply line, which I did around 128. Result, entry with a stop at 124.70 (i.e. Rs.3.30/- risk) for a potential minimum target of 132 (i.e. profit of Rs.4/-). Risk reward ratio is slightly better than 1:1. Is it the best risk reward ratio? Certainly not. Was there any provision for slippages and commission in my trading plan? None. If those are also taken in to account, what would be the risk reward ratio? Negative. Aha.. Here are the few things that I missed. I must plan better next time. Question is, in order to have a favourable risk reward ratio, should I have entered long right there at the support at 126 or at least below 127? I must note that when that lowest low candle completed, it had high volume (in fact highest volume at that point of time) and it closed at the lows and very close to 126 level. Entering long would have been a pure gamble.

Here is the intraday chart of today showing activity upto nearly 11.10 A. M. As it is, I see what could be a selling climax candle just before 11.00 A. M. followed by a low volume Doji candle. When compared this intraday chart with the support level found in the five day intraday chart (first chart given above), it is clear that this selling climax has occurred close to the support level of 126 noted above, which is significant. Doji candle implies indecision. What could this indecision be? Most probably either to break that support at 126 or to reverse from close to that support level to the upside resistance to 132 to 135 range (indicated in two parallel horizontal lines in the first chart) initially and if able to break this resistance area then to go all the way to 145 area. The next two candles after doji candle are showing that attempted selling to take the stock below support of 126 is probably not going to materialize. Last candle shows the rejection of the low very close to the support level of 126. So all available evidence gives a long trade setup. Trade plan Entry One method of entry is to place a stoploss buy order above the high of last candle, which would be quite aggressive. Better entry would be to draw a supply line as indicated in the following chart and to enter long either upon the break of the supply line, if missed that opportunity, then upon the pullback after the break of this supply line. I call it better entry because, by the time all this happens, I shall get ample confirmation as to how the price has moved around the lows. But this information will come at a price. If indeed the lows are rejected, then I will be missing the lowest price for long entry and my stoploss would be slightly at more lower level. What is my motive? To catch the lows or to catch as much trend as possible with least risk? I prefer to take the second route. I will have to survive another day to fight another battle. Bragging about my one success in catching the low will be counter productive in the long run. If this habit left unchecked, I shall do the same thing again and again and sooner or later I will go broke. Stoploss and trade management and exit In any case, stop would be below 126 and since 125 looks a nice number, my stop would be at 124.70. Initial target would be that area of 132 to 135 indicated in the first chart. Once the trade moves in to profit and if the stock makes higher high – higher low pattern, then stop is to be moved upward. If the price hits initial target, I will sell half of my holdings and hold the remaining with trailing stoploss just under prior pivot low until it is hit and I am kicked out by the market. In nut shell, as of now, my entry seems to be around 127 with stop at 124.25 to an initial target of 132 to 135. I am taking a risk of Rs.2.25/- to a potential minimum profit of Rs.5/- Risk reward ratio is close to 1:2. Let us see what happened next.

Here is the long trade thought off on 23/12/2008. Stock is Crompton Greaves. Only available yahoo charts are used. Yahoo ticker symbol of this stock is CROMPGREA.NS First 5 day intraday chart for the context. Price has been moving down from 145 level and found support at 126 level. It again bounced up to near about 145 level and found resistance there virtually confirming it as double top. Thereafter, it began moving down and it has reached the earlier support level of 126 today at the time when this screenshot was taken. So on the upside 145 level is found to be the resistance and on the downside 126 found to be the support. So I reckon that the possibilities are 1. Developing a large range between 145 and 126. In that case, buying near 126 and selling near 145 would be prudent strategy. 2. Moving down 126, as 145 has proven itself to be resistance and the market will try to find the path of least resistance, which after finding resistance at 145 seems to be to the downside. In that case, selling on the break down of 126 level would be a prudent strategy. If that opportunity is missed, then it can be shorted on a retracement to the breakout level 3. Extremely less likely situation would be breaking 145 level and moving up. I am not concentrating on this right now as this seems a remote possibility on this chart

Here is the long trade taken by me in the real time. Instead of later on cursing myself as to “what the hell I was thinking there”, I decided to take screenshot of the chart as real-time as possible and to note my thoughts at that exact point of time. This was beneficial to analyse the trade after it was closed. Further noting the thoughts in real-time avoided that “curve fitting” exercise, which otherwise would be there, if one tries to analyse the chart in hindsight. As always, your comments are really valuable. Kindly see whether my thinking is going in the right direction and see whether I am making any progress at all. If you feel that I have missed something, then kindly feel free to tell them.

Hello friends, I am truly overwhelmed by your response. I thank you all once again for helping me. Bearbull, Thanks for drawing my attention to valuable resources. There is lot of valuable information out there. I shall go through all of them as slowly as possible and as carefully as possible. I shall try to grasp as much as possible. Blowfish, You have drawn my attention to a very important aspect which I have been missing until now. I have been thinking and rethinking on your post. I shall definitely need your help. What I am thinking right now is to read tons of very important materials available in this forum, reshape my knowledge and then work out a method how to translate it in to a trading plan. A may continue with posting chart with very brief comments for sometime. But somewhere in future once I begin making trading plan, definitely I shall post them also along with the chart. I request you all my friends here to go through them and correct the flaws there (which shall invariably be there since I am new to trading). Db, As always your message is to the point and clear. I have to learn a lot. I am in no hurry. I shall try my level best. Eiger, Thanks for mentioning VSA threads. My friend who asked me to join this forum had asked me to join it for VSA and Wyckoff forums. Tons and tons of important lessons are there. I shall go through them slowly and carefully and try to grasp as much as possible. Truly a great forum. Friends, keep helping one another. If you find that I am committing any mistake, please do not hesitate to point it out. I shall always try to learn from my mistakes and rectify them in future. Thanks to all once again

05/12/2008 (I refer it as yesterday – trading day wise) was an upthrust day. Today is an inside day. Volume is less than yesterday. Today’s close is on the lows, but nevertheless higher close if compared to yesterday’s close. Range is narrow. See daily chart But a few words will be necessary with respect of today’s intraday chart. See 5 minute intraday chart. Today price opened way above yesterday’s close, but within the range of yesterday’s daily candle. That huge gap was further pushed up in the opening minutes close to yesterday’s high and as buying climax was in the background, it was expected that today price will not overshoot yesterday’s high and even if there were to be any stop clearing exercise, the extent of move further up from yesterday’s high will be very limited to the extent of one or two rupees. (rupee is Indian currency). But once that opening candle closed, it was pretty clear that even taking out that opening candle (on the higher side) will be a tough task. I observed that it closed way of its high. This weakness was confirmed by subsequent candles. But it is interesting to note that a huge gap is still left open in intraday chart between 366 and 360. Will this gap act as support arresting further fall? If it does, then we have an interesting situation developing here. Up thrust candle (reference is to daily candle dated 05/12/2008) high around 390 as resistance and “key candle” (remember it?) resistance at around 350 which now acts as support. Next few days will provide important clues. What clue? i.e. whether the key candle will succeed in pulling the price down to the range created by it (i.e. range marked in the daily chart) or whether the upthrust candle will create another range by its high and low. In the second case there will be shifting of trading range (i.e. support and resistance levels) to a higher level. Battle is still going on between the bulls and bears. Lawn tennis lovers will remember the intense fight between the players close to the point. Deuce – advantage – deuce……. Fight goes on.

Bearbull, Thanks for the guidence. I shall definitely look into them. I think you are referring to DB's blog in this forum. If he has any other blog, can you give me the link? Thanks in advance Bump: Blowfish, You are spot on. My perpetual problem seems to be hesitation in entries and jumping out of the trade at the slightest hint of doubt. This has resulted in missing good moves (in case of hesitated entries) and early exit (incase where position has been built up). Can you help me out? I am not eager to put a trade in this moment. Because both in weekly and daily charts price is wandering in a tight range. I would like to see a direction in place and then movein. As it is my focus is on the direction of breakout (either up or down). Logic on the basis of available evidence tells me that next possible direction is downside breakout. I am intending to put on the trade either on the breakout or on the retracement back to the base after breakout. As it is there is one attempt to move to the upside (in daily chart) out of the trading range. Often I have seen on the move in opposite direction, a similar extended move on the downside and then pull back in to the range and thereafter breakout (which again can be in any direction). That sort of movement sucks in perfectly. I will have to watchout volume carefully at the time of and subsequent to breakout. Yes. I am trying to catch a swing on the daily chart. Thanks for the guidence. I think I got the clue in your post. I should be focussing on what I should do incase price breaks out in either direction. In otherwords, I must have two plans in place, one for the upside and one for the downside. Have I understood hint given by you correctly?

Now the weekly chart. See chart first I see a well defined Lower High – Lower Low pattern. Price is below the down sloping supply line. Volume on last downleg (i.e. from the first arrow marked candle to the candle having lowest low in the chart) was higher than its prior downleg. I donot see any selling climax in the weekly chart. Both these imply selling is not yet over. However, since last several weeks price has been moving in a range. I have marked the upper and lower boundary of this trading range. Last weekly candle has closed in the middle and volume was higher than previous week. Last candle on the weekly chart is a Doji implying indecision. Unless one side wins, it is difficult to take position. Best is to sit out and watch. There are two overhead resistances. One from the low of the last pivot point, which incidentally is the upper boundary of the trading range and another is from the downsloping trend line (supply line). Overcoming twin challenges is not very easy. On the whole, bears seem to have an upperhand.

Now the updated daily chart. See chart first. All that action that has taken place throughout the day has resulted in an upthrust. High volume, wide range with large wick candle and closing on the lows. By any means, it is a picture of bear. Now the context. As such I see a selling climax followed by two tests. Second test candle has been named by me as “key candle”. That candle appears to be having a lot of gravitational force. It does not allow the price to moveup. Initially, it resulted in a range. I have drawn two lines denoting the top and bottom of this range. Yesterday, i.e. last candle on this daily chart, was an attempt to break out of this range to the upside. Actually that attempt began on 04/12/2008 afternoon itself. But was there enough strength? On 04/12/2008 itself, I was smelling the discordant note struck by the volume. In that post, I was analyzing the possibilities how a novice trader could be lured to go long and they how he could be sucked in. But the possibility thought by me did not materialize. Instead even a better approach was taken. Price was opened on the low in the morning, then it moved up implying continuation of rally that began on the afternoon of 04/12/2008 and thereafter it was slammed back. But the moot question is whether the upthrust candle is in perfect place? Has it occurred after a rally? Was there any weakness in the background? In this context it is important to analyse where the trading range (that has been produced by the key candle) has occurred. It has occurred almost on the spot of second test of the selling climax. So a tricky question. How to interpret this trading range? As a sign of strength, or as a sign of weakness? Is it a distribution before going down or is it an accumulation before going up? Now I look at the volume on each and every candle in this trading range. Usually, trading range should be having low volume. But this is not the case here. Again why this is occurring? Selling climax is a sign of strength, first test is a sign of strength. Naturally second test should have resulted in further more elimination of sellers and if a trading range that has resulted after second test should have less sellers and more buyers. If the professionals are eager to accumulate, then they will do so without much fanfare. That would have resulted in lower volume on downdays and higher volume on updays. Not vice versa. Not almost equal volume on all days in trading range. Less volume in trading range when compared to the volume of candles that led the last downleg. If these things are not there, then I become suspicious of the trading range. What does the trading range as a whole say? What was the behaviour when the price moved out of the trading range? Trading range as a whole says, activity has not died down yet. When the price moved out of the trading range, it met with selling. Both these imply that sellers have not yet finished their stock. If that is the point, will the professional side make an attempt to accumulate? Will they make an attempt to mark it up? So in nutshell I am expecting some more tests of selling power and I am interested to see the results of those tests. If I am not sure about the movement, the best thing I can do is to sit on the sideline and watch. If I am in doubt, I can consult the higher timeframe chart and see what is happening there. That brings me to the weekly chart, which I shall analyse tomorrow. Bump: Jonbig, Thanks for the help. Kindly see first post of this thread. That contains weekly and monthly charts. Weekly chart starts from 2006 and monthly chart begins from 1998. My comments about them are also there. Do you find anything in them that I am missing out?

Today morning for all practical purpose, we had a gap down opening. Do not bother about the first candle which is right there on the opening bell. None of us could see that freak trade around 364 on the open. We could see only around 355 around the opening bell. This gap down opening itself charged up the bulls. They made and attempt to close this gap, which was successful. Not only that, look at the volume when yesterday’s high was breached to the upside! There was an opportunity to make some quick bucks, which was promptly made. Then came that wide range candle with extremely high volume and it closed in the middle. It came after a substantial upmove. It was clear that it was a buying climax. I have marked this candle with arrow (third arrow marked candle from the left). Further confirmation of this buying climax came when price could not take out the high of this wide range candle. The moment low of this buying climax candle was breached I got out of my longs and created a short simultaneously. Initial target was day’s low and if it also breached, the next target was the red upper range trend line from the range generated by key candle in the daily chart referred in my earlier posts. Why? Because any pullback after breakout will test the area of breakout. Resistance becoming support. Frankly, I was expecting strong support at the day’s low. Ultimately, that held out to be the support, albeit at slightly lower level, enough to clear all sell stops below the day’s low. I closed my short position when the price came close to day’s low made on the early morning. I felt bit tired and hence moved away from my screen. To be honest thereafter I did not look at the market until they were closed for the day. I shall update daily chart and weekly chart tomorrow, if time permits.

The anticipated move to the upper boundary of the trading range (please refer to yesterday’s post) did take place today. But this upper range test did not take place early morning session as I was expecting yesterday. When it came close to that upper level it necessitated a closer look in shorter timeframe chart. First see 5 minute chart. The red horizontal line in the 5 minute chart is the upper trading range line from yesterday’s daily chart. The approach to this upper line was not at all inspiring. Low volume protracted affair. But since I have been itching to make a trade, I wanted to see the breakout of this upper line and then to see the pullback to this line. This indeed took place on the candle marked with second arrow from the left. Then a small trading range followed. I entered a long trade on the break of the high of fourth candle from this second arrow marked candle. I must note that I was itching to trade, not the best frame of mind advisable to trade. The long wait had that much effect upon me. I was a bit hesitant to take long trade seeing the nature of approach to the upper boundary line and subsequent development. That was not a confident trade. Bit iffy minded trade. At the end of the day, when I reflect back, I must admit, that trade was taken more on impulse rather than on cool reflection. So here is a weak point about my trading mind. Anyway, trade was taken with a stop just below fifth candle from the first arrow marked candle. As I said, I was hesitant at the time of entering the trade, I had decided at the time of entering the trade itself that I shall exit the trade if the price hits 363 (highest price for 01/12/2008), which is slightly above the upper boundary of the trading range and which is also the highest price in that trading range. That was promptly hit and I was out with profit. I should also mention that as and when higher pivot low was formed stop was moved upward. But when I reflect back, I notice that there was no definite trade plan in my mind at the time of entering the trade. I tried to develop one as and when the chart developed. There was no definite holding period (i.e. whether to take intraday trade or delivery trade) nor the exit method was fully satisfactory. Now I am asking myself why did not I wait for the break of the trendline or for the formation of lower high pivot? Anyway, some lessons are noted. If I have missed any (there will be many) please tell me. As I have to leave for the time being, I shall examine the daily chart later. Bump: A quick note before going to bed. See updated daily chart. Price indeed broke out of the range created by “key candle” narrated in my yesterday’s post. What is the quality of this breakout? Volume is slightly better than yesterday and day before yesterday, but by no means a high volume. In a breakout candle I would like to see much more volume than the volume on present volume. Today’s range is slightly wider than last two days range. Today’s close was on the high and above the upper boundary of the range created by key candle. I am expecting a higher open tomorrow morning. Whether the bulls will be able to sustain is to be seen. A higher opening will suck in many novices and if it tumbles down thereafter swiftly, that will lock in many novices into a position where they will definitely hope and pray. That is the perfect time to bring it down further. It is the volume on today’s candle that is striking a discordant note in my mind. Lower volume on a breakout means, professionals are not enthusiastic at the moment. That does not mean that they will not change their mind in future. I will have to see the quality of pullback. Let us see how tomorrow unfolds. Bump: I hate this "bump" stuff. It irritates me very much. I donot know how other readers of this thread are feeling about this bump stuff. So far no reply from moderators of this forum for my queries on bump stuff. I know this post too will "bump" to the end portion of my earlier posts made today. As there is no other alternative and as no one is guiding as to why this is happening and how to avoid it, I have to tolerate it. Please bear with it and with me as well :doh:

First daily chart with today's candle as an addition Another day of tight range and low volume passes away. Battle is still undecided. As and when chart develops it becomes clear that the candle which I have marked with arrow and labeled as “Key Candle?” in the chart is the important candle. There are seven candles subsequent to that arrow marked candle whose closed is either within the range of that key candle. All these seven candles have volume less than key candle volume. I have marked the upper and lower boundaries of the tight range that ensued subsequent to this key candle. I am noticing that price has not been able to break this range significantly and set a trend in the direction of break. Now these are the thoughts that are passing on my mind. 1. Key candle had high volume but it has closed in the middle. 2. Key candle has appears to be a second test of the selling climax 3. After what appears to be a second test (key candle) price indeed tried to go up, but did not find any enthusiastic response from the bulls. That is why price came down again to see how much interest bears have. Low volume implies that bears are not interested at this moment. So another test drive to the upside since yesterday including today. Volume is even less. 4. So in nutshell coil is being wound close and tight. Breakout in either direction would give mouth watering profits. But I have to wait until a clear direction emerges. As between yesterday and today, it was the bulls who had advantage today morning. Because, yesterday’s close was on the high. They used this advantage and opened the price with a gap on the high. Immediate response would be to close this gap, which indeed happened. But the price did not go above the high (which was established immediately after opening) after filling this gap. Lackluster trading ensued and ultimately price closed well above middle. Today’s candle has taken away the advantage of the bulls (which was there on the yesterday’s close) to a great extent. But since the price closed above the middle, I am expecting another test of the upper boundary of the range (drawn on horizontal lines) most probably in the early opening session and I am waiting to see the response at this upper boundary of the range. So a test of patience is on the cards. But impatient trading would result in wrong entries and the consequent result would be either 1. a stop loss hit or 2. an inordinate wait when the market moves sideways before establishing trend and this sideways movement will result in anxiety and a heightened possibility of committing error out of emotional stress.

Nothing much to write about today's action. Battle is going on between the bulls and bears. Today's battle resulted in narrow range bar closing on the high, nevertheless lower close if compared to yesterdays' close. Volume is less than yesterday. Today morning bears had perfect opportunity to take it down. They opened is low and with a gap. That gap itself was their undoing. There was attempt to close the gap and bears could not douse this battle fire with bombarded selling. Result, narrow range and the stock closed on the high. What does the slightly lesser volume very near to the support mean? The picture in daily chart is still inconclusive. Will the support hold or will it breakdown? Jumping before seeing the evidence of one side (bull or bear) winning the battle may prove costly and it may be a pure gamble. I am posting chart of the same stock daily to note my feelings and my reaction to the chart as it unfolds. I am deliberately avoiding posting of many charts at this point of time. If that is done, I may not follow them up closely and carefully and most importantly, I may not realise my mistakes in analysing the charts unless I do it continuously.

Thanks for a friend of mine for pointing out my mistake about my inability to notice a small rally when the price hit box 2 area for the first time. I am referring to monthly chart posted in the first post. I stand corrected. I notice that when the price hit box 2 area in July 2008, that indeed arrested the downtrend for the moment and price rallied on the next month candle up to around 800 area. This is apparent if I see the weekly chart. This is why I said this forum is great. People help one another. I am constrained not to disclose the name of my friend as he wishes to remain anonymous. Thank you my dear friend.

Just a followup on ICICI Bank chart. As noted in earlier post longer term trend (monthly chart) is indicating down. Weekly trend (medium term) down. Daily chart (short term) is a little bit iffy. I have seen a selling climax which is followed by a successful test and the second test is in progress. Best option is to wait until daily chart shows a clear picture. But see daily chart where today's candle is added. Since last six candles, effort is being made to raise up. I Give attention to the sixth candle from the right edge. It has higher volume and its low is a pivot low, but it has closed in the middle with next candle down. Infact next two candles are inside candles. In the two subsequent candles eventhough volume is slightly higer than inside candles, virtually no headway is made in the upward direction. Last candle, i.e. today's candle is having wide range body and it almost qualified as an outside bar reversal candle. It missed this title by a whisker. Today volume is slightly higher than yesterday and today's close has been on the lows. To sumup right edge on daily chart 1. Selling climax followed by a successful test. Thereafter a second test. 2. After the second test an attempt to move higher, which does not seem to be very convincing. 3. I am keeping in mind that longer term charts (monthly and weekly) are showing downtrend. So going long will be against longer term charts, i.e. against the predominent trend in longer term chart. 4. A window of opportunity is opening up to go short in daily chart, i.e. to align myself with the trend shown in longer term charts. 5. Has to wait for my moment to short. I am in no hurry. Let us see.