Blue

Here's another couple of tests: sim trade on NQ 5 min chart this morning. Both were a little ambiguous. In the first (candle 1) the market was mostly sideways, not a clear up-trend. In the second, candle 2 was not a classic hammer, plus the EMA20 had been severely broken; the tail of the hammer was on SMA40 (red line). Was this a case of (fulfilled) wishful thinking? Would candle 3 have been a better entry signal? BTW, both trades netted a little more than 10 pts. Any comments would be appreciated..

Thanks for the comments. I've only recently begun focusing on exits. In this case because the trade was a test, I left it on to see if I could catch a move to make target on a single trade. Closed it because the order flow indicated it was stalling on the premarket resistance. Turned out perfectly for $260. But the trade wasn't easy. Initially it went against me about -2 pts and then on the first pullback it came back down to about +2 pts. BTW, I'm mostly trying to apply it to a 1 min chart, but early indications show the 5 min chart to be more reliable.

Saw a good opportunity to try this technique this morning in NQ 5 min chart. Sim trade with a good result. Green line is SMA20, pink line EMA20. Any comments? Thanks.

You guys are amazing. Thanks for the encouragement and the assurance that the problem is with me, not the game itself. Right on the money with my problem, I think. Brownsfan esp. Don't have a mechanical plan, I'm trading mostly by the seat of my pants. And that usually results in an ave. of 40+ trades per day. My background is in engineering, a world ruled by facts. Since I realized early on that the same kind of consistent, reliable facts don't exist in trading, I've instead concentrated on "tape reading," using TWS Booktrader to acquire a "feel" for the order flow. I can now do this with some competence, but it's highly susceptible to emotion. The "feel" when trading live is not the same as the "feel" when trading sim. The only solution here is to continue with this method until the emotions subside. An uncertain bet at best! Alternatively, the value of a mechanical method is more apparent to me now with 3 yrs experience than it was in the beginning, ie, probability vs certainty. I guess I'll have to hit the books again and look for a method I can work with. Switching horses this late in the ride is somewhat problematic, however, as my resources are now quite thin. I'll do the reading as suggested.

I've been trading full time for 3 years and I'm still losing money. I'm at the end of my rope! Looking for some help, words of encouragement, or even some harsh words from those who know. I'm in my late 40's, broker is IB, day-trading NQ. Three years ago I was laid off and took it as an opportunity to go full time into trading. Had enough money to make a good go of it. Prior to this, I'd read all Larry Williams material, plus all the classics as well as many other books. I traded with a broker for several years. Net result was to lose my $20K trading capital. When I was laid off, I figured I could spend a few months paper-trading and then go live and start making money. Seemed logical, as everything else I'd done in my life worked that way! Most things I've tried ended successfully. Not trading. Began with a mix of live and paper trading. Took me two years to paper trade successfully, all the while losing controlled amounts live At this point I can usually make my target of $100 net profit trading NQ in less than half an hour, on paper. Logically, this should translate into some success trading live, if not the same success. But no, not at all! I'm still losing my loss limit every day, after three years of this. When I reach my loss limit, and go back to simulated trading, boom, target in 10 minutes, or 15 minutes. Next day, same thing. When I close on a small loss, it turns around. When I hold the loss waiting for it to turn around, it doesn't, but keeps growing--hold, hold, hold, loss keeps growing--close the trade and boom! it turns around. When I hold waiting for a move, the market inevitably moves against me. When I close after waiting for it to move, it goes in my favor, without me. When I'm profitable with a minuscule couple of ticks, hold, hold, hold waiting for the big move I can see coming, and give up after waiting too long, then Boom! it shoots to the moon, as expected. Again without me. Net result is my losses grow at an astounding pace, my profits are like try to build a tower by stacking sheets of kleenex. Is this game rigged? Seems like my broker is trading against me, feeding me whatever market data they need to clean me out. Is this just paranoia, or am I wasting my time and money here? Is it worth persisting? Can one really be successful trading from home?