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MCM
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Posts posted by MCM
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Cory - quick question. You have been profitable 7/8 days over the past couple weeks. As someone who had followed your posts from before - this seemed like a relatively good streak.
On reviewing the trades - Is it you are finding you exited positions too quickly? I was just wonder if the flip side to that thought process is that you minded your stops better due to knowing that you were going to post in here - thus you were + 7/8 days?
Just a thought. As you said - different strokes for different folks. I am hardly a consistent poster in here - but always enjoy the company in the thread.
Continued success...
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I think trendlines are very important in avoiding the chop in oil. Wait for the candle to close below the trendline if you want to be conservative. A really good way to construct trendlines with oil is to connect higher low fractals for up trendlines. More on fractals later.
The tease on fractals has me a waitin...appreciated the wisdom on this post. Oil has made it to my screens - have been too chickensh** to trade it as of yet. Will continue to be a voyeur - but am curious to your method of connecting higher low fractals (how low of a time pattern do you go which you have found to be reliable)
Thanks
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Back in the trading seat. A nice way to start. 3/3 for the day.
Was just mulling over the trades. Had good entries with no impulsive trades. But missed a couple while sitting in the desk - not paying attention. Market backfilling took me out of my second contract on both trades (initial trade with single contract) and then went on to hit the target. Sigh.
Entries: B-. Exits: C+ Following Stop Loss Rules: Had the orders in - didnt get filled - so I guess an A.
Calling it a day unless a fantastic set up occurs. Glad to be back!
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Limited trades today (one for 10 pts on the YM). Due to regular job - trading is gonna be tough the next 7 or 8 trading days. Trying to figure out if I am going to just take a break for 10 days. Have been trying to do double duty lately - and I think it is affecting me in all aspects. One of the hardest things about learning this business - is balancing the job that pays the bills along with it. Not enough time. Not to mention the time away from the family.
I am thinking it might be wiser to take a brief break than trade on caffeine and little sleep. Trouble is - I am gonna feel out of the swing and just plain miss it.
Posting in P/L might be sparse from me during that time - I havent disappeared - and will return.
Good trading - will keep poking my head in and eavesdroppin!
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. and yes, I do have my 10,000 hours in...And there in lies the secret...
Working - I figure - on my 1000-1250 range.
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Two trades today (post night shift - so half awake). Entry was good on first one - great on second one. Exit was decent on first (extreme tick reading - exited) , lousy on second (got impatient - had the YM going down to the 10905 by projections - and just decided to take the trade off for my 5 pt min profit due to ... not sure. (Something to think about tonight). Left a solid 20 points on the table. That blows.
Eventually when I start trading multiple contracts - might be easier to take one off at my initial profit (5 pts...I know guys - it aint much...baby steps) - and leave the others on for the target. That part was much easier in sim than real life. For now - want to be profitable consistently on a single contract.
Trade using fibs - though I show the 255 tick - I use the 144 tick - just wanted to compress the picture. Top of 10926 was a nice confluence of a 161 extension of a AB move - a 224 extension of an xy leg that preceded the move up..and of course a very nice supply level from yesterday.
Grade: Entries: B+. Exits: C- Impulsiveness: A Rule Following: A Building right side of chart: C+ (reacting nicely - but was not active in building my case for market going up and market going down...just too tired from lack of sleep).
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Just planned out a 717 mile trip my friend and I will drive this summer through the mountains of Colorado. If you want a clue, just google Route 550 in Colorado - unbelievable scenery.In fact, throughout this summer I plan to drive some of the best roads in Colorado and post pics, video, and reviews on a website I will design. Should be fun.
Spend alot of time in Durango & Silverton - 550 is an amazing drive. We once stopped at Orvis Hot Springs on the way back from Telluride - and had the kids ready for a nice dip in the springs - when we walked out and saw the humanity - sans speedo's. The clerk had failed to mention that Orvis Hot Springs is a clothing optional area. Lol...asked for our money back and went on our way.
We just did some high alpine sledding with the kids a few weeks ago on Molas Pass on the 550 - sure beats the crappy hill I used to sled on as a kid in Minnesota!
Another great highway (that Charles Kuralt once called the most beautiful stretch of road he ever saw) - is the Beartooth Highway in Montana/Wyoming. I believe it still is the "highest" highway in North America at over 10,500 feet. Insane views. Worth the drive.
Enjoy the drive and the scenery. Stop at Handlebars in Silverton for a beer and an elk burger.
MCM
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I've meet some of the greatest in this business and the one thing they all have in common is humility.
Ghost of Livermopre: Cheers to your statement. Confidence promotes success - hubris invites disaster.
Humility is a constant denonimator for success in all areas of life. The journey for most of us continues. TL is a nice place to grab a beer and enjoy the conversations of people who share the same passion - trading.
86834: To quote you (and I did enjoy your original post in this thread - as something to remind each day how tough this business is)
"I make money, they make money, and any talk of which methods work is just the same as two artists arguing over how to draw an apple. If you're making money, you're making money, it doesn't really require discussion. When i'm in the pub with my friends that are traders, we're not talking about trading methods...."
If you dont discuss how to draw an apple - then why in the hell would you discuss how the apple grows? Different people learn differently - to make the statement that 99% of the people here will fail (another post of yours) - and the way you SHOULD learn is via a training/prop firm - is arguing about how the apple grows. You make the assumption that the majority of successful traders learn via a prop firm. Care to show that study? I personally know as many failed prop firm traders as I do anyone else.
I don't need an Ivy League study to understand what communication and hierarchy goes on in a bar, a neighborhood, or a chat room. What people respond to is how the person acts when you say "Hello" to them. You might be a fun & engaging and interesting person, or you might be a complete prick. Probably depends on the day & time (you were writing a post at 430 AM your time according to the log - assuming you are in Noddingham). Telling someone they are bound to fail, not doing the right things, and linking them to websites regailing the cocaine/threesome laden days of past gone by is boredom at its best - loathsome at its worst.
What works for you - might not work for many of us. Everyone can find their own way - trade at their own risk tolerance - and attempt to earn the amount they see fit. And that is the beauty of trading.
I hope you are truly successful at your business and can retire for the Mrs's - and get to write your book on trading philosophy. You should do the same for me, and the rest in this room.
Regards
MCM
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Went in too early (common theme for me - need to learn from that and remind myself daily) on the initial short of the day. Got shook out - and it proceeded to close the gap. (This is second large move I have missed due to poor entry in the past week.)
Managed to claw back and get green with some smaller fib moves and quick profit takes.
Expected bottom at close of gap on YM didnt materialize - and went deep in between my zones - so no play on the upside late this afternoon. Adleast I didnt chase (though that would have been profitable today :haha:)
Grade for the Day: D+ on entries. C+ on exits. B+ on building the right side of the chart.
P
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From now on out I will post the smaller account results.Today I missed 2 setups in es and traded a third for around 2.5k, the majority of my p/l came from an oil trade.
This is probably my last CL trade unless I see a setup I can't resist, I have one such setup but I do not want to take up the real estate with an oil chart every day.
Attached is a chart so maybe we can get up some of the discussion like we had last year regarding analysis. I will try to post charts when I can.
Thanks Bathrobe - its posts like these that make my toiling 8+ hours for 150 buck day worthwhile...the thought of generating income that will replace the current job is worthy - just needs the occasional boost. Much appreciated.
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I have read and enjoyed his book - and do feel that there is useful information that is tradeable. As far as the software - though it makes external retracements, internal retracements, and symmetry retracements alot easier to do in TS - do I really want to spend 2K on a program that is nicer to draw lines with? In the end - I dont see any other benefit to it. (I was never was interested in the screener - since I trade the same basket of stocks and futures - I can easily scan that basket for my set ups)
You can get pretty damn fast with TS in drawing the lines after a little practice.
Carolyn Boroden is another trader who learned Miner's methods - and trades it on a daily basis. (FibQueen is her moniker - and has also written a book somewhat similar to Miner's but with more emphasis towards day trading. I have joined her trading room in the past for a free trial and watched her trade these set ups in multiple futures market with success. She gives out some free videos daily on trading that style - so I would recommend her as a resource for free daily "examples". (fibonacciqueen.com)
As far as his ability to trade - I have no idea. MidKnight might be right about his lack of ability to find sunlight while stuck in a hole on a summer day. But is success in a field a prerequisite for passing on useful information? (A good question. I would argue yes if you want that person to be a mentor. I would argue no if they are merely a conduit of information that they are passing on to you in a useful way. Business/Law/Medical schools are prime examples of the latter.) I know he did win the Robbins Trading Contest in the 90's in the future market (mentioned in a Traders Audio interview Traders Interviews - View - TraderPlanet, but I have no idea who he was against/etc.) So who knows.
I think the best thing he has taught me is trading in two time frames - and obeying the direction of the higher time frame. In looking at my trading journal - those trades have a much higher win rate than the other trades. (as they say - the trend is your friend).
I agree with Blowfish - in the end it has more to do with the trader pulling the trigger than the system they are using. Good luck.
Peace
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The example given at the top is for a one minute chart. Can anyone find one of these patterns on a daily or weekly chart?His (Larry Pesavento) book gives plenty of examples. Have seen the pattern play out in 144 tick to daily charts frequently enough. As Tams said - it works well in markets that are range bound and moving back and forth.
Larry Pesavento & Leslie Jouflas book "Trade What You See" is a nice read - lots of great real-life examples - both failed patterns and successful ones. Along with other gartley-type patterns.
Good luck
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After getting stopped out 5 pts from the top on the YM (with two contracts to hold to the close of the gap)...lol...this is me getting the shine on - your car - since my trading didnt go too well today figured I would make money elsewhere. Ill detail it for 200 bones.
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A = Actual trading (watching the DOM, entering orders, etc..)
B = Trading methods review, review of the day’s trading, record keeping, etc..
C = Researching new methods, reading books, reading TL for new trading ideas
Full time job as an owner/physician of an ER group. So my trading goes in spurts & fits. When home (and not tending to the 1 year old, or getting the other 2 girls off to school)
A: 4-8 hours
B: 0.5-1.0
C: TL has upped this a bit lately. 1.0-1.5 including 1-2 books usually being read at any given moment.
My glaring inability is category B - which to me means keeping that daily journal with (its better , but still only 60-70%) all of the trades. If I cant get my act together on that process (trade in AZ - so market closes = kids home from school = afternoon activities, then dinner, then inability to walk into office and do the hard work which is critiquing the day) If I cant get any better on keeping the diary up I may start to enact a 2 hour doldrum rule. Automatically turn off the feed on TS/T4 around 9AM local and log the AM trades as well as update the trade diary.
As someone who used to work 110-120 hour work weeks during my residency - I have found that trading is much more difficult mentally but alot easier physically. I do see the correlation that it takes a good 10,000 hours to become adept at this profession. That would leave another 4 years at this rate. I do enjoy the hours - and think the camaraderie that is found here in TL is very similar to that of a residency. Consists of alot of varied people taking their licks - seeking advice from the more experienced - and returning day after day to perfect their craft despite what curveball got thrown their way 24 hours earlier.
Weeks that I am working a fair # of shifts are typically no-trade weeks or perhaps having one glorious day in front of the screens. (Massive disappointment if that happens to be a quiet day!) So the hours can vary, but thats a good average.
I haven't entrusted myself enough to frequently trade the "set & forgets" - but do think that will be the next step in the evolution over the next couple of years. Which leads me to another question for the group - how many say they successfully swing & day trade? Or due to the mindset - are they mutually exclusive? (Perhaps for another thread).
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90% drawdown.
Graphs that look like a 3rd grader made them.
Only to be comforted in the end by a crappy quote from a little seen movie with a cheesy movie poster.
I am sure their customers are re-assured at their ongoing strategy.
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Good afternoon.
I realize I trade in a somewhat different fashion from many of you - I am a fib traders along with supply/demand confluence. Also like to trade the pure patterns at times - 30 year bond setting up a nice classic Gartley 222 pattern.
Ratios AB/CD are holding - as was the expected move (162 of BC is end of CD leg). Initial pullback was at the 618. 30 year contract : 610 tick chart.
Coming into supply as well. Limited risk. (stops above recent high at 117 24/32).
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Good to see you back Cory.
Dont sacrifice health, happiness, family. In the end - even if your successful at trading - you will be unsuccessful at life
(I realize you may have been joking a bit - but a profession/pursuit that you can literally spend 24X5.5 days in front of a screen has the slippery-slope ability of sucking you away from true purpose. Trading is a vehicle to provide funds for that purpose - make sure you are trading with THAT purpose in mind.)Enough metaphysical clap-trap for the morning.
I have re-read this thread a few times in order to gleam a little bit more of the advice some of the veterans gave you. Print those out - or make a word document with the highlights - and post em up. Even if you stop posting to this thread - I think it has been one of the more useful threads I have read on this fantastic website.
P
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To add on to the questions...(appreciate your time)
1) What made you trigger the long initially? Not an obvious entry point from supply/demand level. Had a previous pivot high (marked #1 on pic), a small Rally-base-rally area (#2), and the 618 retrace - but with that fast of a drop - I dont think I would have planned on either of those three (even combined) stopping the freight train.
2) Have been plotting out the previous days highs/lows (mentioned in some of your previous posts) - and trying to learn a little bit about the Taylor method . Was this at a certain predicted # - and therefor a low risk entry once the initial 60 min candle that drove down finished above its low - and the new candle was formed above.
3) Do you move down on time frames to trade - you show a 60 min chart. I believe in the past I have seen your charts moving off some 15 min levels (might be mistaken).
Realize some people may feel OK answering these questions - others - would rather defer. No hard feelings either way. Cheers.
P
PS - also assume the 11171 exit is placed there due to the March 1st pivot low?
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And this is how a short sequence looks on the USDJPY at the moment ...Best Wishes,
Thales
Took awhile - but that first target hit after it finally rolled over. Question for you Thales - do you keep in trades for this long - or had you long since bailed on this?
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http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f37/know-thyself-7551.html
FX Girl presents another metaphor - Surfing - in a post about 2/3rds down the first page in this thread. Quoted below (hopefully with no objections - apologies in advance if FX Girl would have rather not had me cut/copy this!)
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Dear BlowFish: Thanks for calling our attention to Anna-Maria's post - very interesting, and obviously it works well for her. We probably all have our own metaphor for trading the market. For me, it's surfing.
I spent hours in the waters off the southern California coast as teenager. When there is clear intent in the market (you see the wave coming), you time your entry, turn the board around and wait until you feel it (meets my trade criteria) - the water where you are sitting on your board begins to suck back into the the face of the oncoming wave (pullback). Then when you feel the power of the wave under you, you dig in and paddle (entry). The wave pulls you up into it and you take the ride. As the power of the wave ebbs, you kick out (take profit), and paddle back out for the next wave (next trade set up).
Yes, I know that there are guys out there trying to take my money, but I certainly am not in the market "... to bury the stiff who gets the wrong side of my next long-short pitch." No battle for me, just harmony with what is.
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In a recent thread, DugDug mentioned to a trader how he is in the quandary of a amateur flyfisherman. Spending more time thinking about the cast/the fly/the water than just being in the moment and fishing. It got me to thinking just how much analogous learning there is between the two pursuits. Thought it would be a fun thread to start – but not only include flyfishing – but perhaps other pursuits (learning to fly, golf, running, losing weight, etc). Thought it was a good non-trading day rumination!
So – to get it started – I will offer some off the top of my head similarities between flyfishing and trading. I dare say I am better at fishing right now than trading – but have been doing one for 20+ years and the other for 1 ½ years. Love to venture after trout, pike, tarpon, permit and roosterfish on the fly. Perhaps that explains why I have a hard time concentrating on just one or two contracts to trade.
New waters = new contract : your first goal should be to spend some time watching the water! Don’t step in the water right away. Don’t expect to catch fish immediately. Questions to ask yourself – is there fish to catch? Are they easy enough that you do not need to expend too much time/energy in the process? Who is your competition? Is the area of water great – but timing just not there (spring run-off, high noon, etc etc). Are you there too late in the day – has it already been fished out?
Catching the easy small fish versus stalking the larger fish = high time frame trading vs lower timeframe : Oftentimes you can scalp a smaller trade – but miss the more profitable trade in the larger timeframe. Much like a nice area on the stream – the small trout are feeding aggressively at the edge – but if you wait and time your cast correctly – you can target the larger fish. Days to remember are not typically the ones which you catch a ton of smaller fish – but the one in which you worked for a beautiful fish that you knew was there – but had to take time in order to get it to feed on your fly. Wait for the big one to feed.
Not flogging the water = keeping your powder dry: Don’t overcast the water. Wait for the opportunity. Then make your best presentation to the fish. If the fish doesn’t take it – perhaps there is a reason why. The fish has already been spooked – perhaps it was caught earlier in the day. Move on to the next area that looks productive.
Keep your equipment in good working order = keep your charts updated and do pre-trading prep. Don’t expect to dust off the equipment after it was sitting in the attic for 12 months and think you will hook up and land a fish. Knots gets old – tippet gets brittle – and reels need lubrication & cleaning. Spend a day before you go getting the equipment ready. When done for the day – clean your gear and put it away. Review your trades and put them to bed – it will prep you for the next day.
I am sure there are more…hope this isn’t too esoteric of a thread. But like I said – it’s the weekend.
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Cory - you have the amateur fly fishermans dilema.Every now and again fly fisherman get a mayfly hatching (or some other insect) and the salmon go wild for them - they seemingly eat everything that is on the water. The water is alive with fish eating everything, including the other fishermen around you.....except your fly!!
The frustration is palpable - why the f...n hell cant I catch anything, whats wrong, maybe i'll try this, try that etc;
The key to most of the successful anglers are they will still only target one fish in the frenzy, they have learn their craft prior to the day and know how to cast quickly and accurately, and they do they dont keep chopping and changing flys or angles with out thought for why.
These things all take time, I have been trading for years, and swapping back to a more intensive short term intraday trading style for me is frustrating, ( also exciting), and sometimes I wonder why I am bothering - but I also know I would rather spend the time and effort to ensure I get it right for the long term.
I wish I had the resources of such a thing as traders laboratory when I first started, but I also think that such a resource is also like putting a kid in front of a candy store and saying - one of these days son - if you are lucky - when you have enough knowledge experience etc; you can enter the store with the others - until then you have to wait. Man o man - thats frustration. Yet if you get it and succeed - or even if you dont - you will have learnt a lot and thats never a bad thing.
The analogy is sound. You can get so distracted by all of the other fish (other contracts, different time frames, different indicators) that you stop targeting your one goal. I battle myself daily on wanting to trade a different indicator, a different time frame, etc. When I look back weekly on my trades - the most successful are the ones taken that are IN MY TRADING PLAN!
I spent years learning to fly fish - and remember those days of pure frustration as my friends were hammering 18-22" trout while I flailed with wind knots & being hung up in the brush. Patience and time on the water is what ultimately produced the results. I have since repeated this process in seeking Tarpon and Permit on the fly. (rewarded with my first permit this past summer happily). Per the author Malcolm Gladwell - most crafts take 10,000 hours to master. I dont believe I am even up to 1000 hours yet (figure 10 hours of screen time/week X 1 1/4 years). Until I hit the 10K mark - my main goal is to NOT blow up one of my accounts. I am happy that my performance the past month has been + 400 dollars (including commission). Not exactly money to live on - hell - not even money to withdraw. But it is positive - and it has allowed me to learn by looking over the good trades (both winners and losers) as well as the bad trades (even if it was a winner - if it was out of my plan - its a bad trade).
Remember - the occasional stupid fish will hook itself and gode (?spelling) you into thinking you got it figured out. You will know you are ready to make a living if you can walk into the river (or saltwater flat) each day and pull out some fish - even if they werent in the mood to be generous. You dont need to change your fly every 3 casts - or switch to a new flat/section of the river. The fish are there. Be patient. Wait for your opportunity - and dont flail on the water beforehand - it will prevent you from being ready at the best moment.
Dug Dug - I have to say thanks - I have never realized the similarities between trading and flyfishing before - but they are quite striking! Will help me in my own trading to think about being patient/prepared/accepting of what the market will give.
As I read this blog - I sense an ongoing theme of the wise and battle-scarred traders offering the same advice: find your plan. trade it. trade it some more. dont change gears. after several months - do a serious review - does your system work - does it have a positive expectancy - etc etc. In the meantime - protect your capital. rinse & repeat. And expect it to take a few years - not months/weeks. And finally - the successful traders all seem to trade their own style (Thales, Brownsfan, Bathrobe, etc) and not worry about what method the trader on the other side of the river/flat is using to get their daily catch.
Keep up the blog - and be open to the advice. (present company excluded - I like you - am at the beginning of the journey)
P
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From your post:
"BUT, I wanted to get short, missed the initial opportunity, but felt sure the EUR/USD was heading lower after that bounce off of resistance...so I went short with a market order (with an unfavorable entry point) with a profit target aimed for the low, and another profit target for 150 ticks (I was planning to trail my stops down to the 150 tick target)..."
Hey Cory - been following with interest - since I too - launched my first ever formal trading plan this week with live trades. Missed easily 75% of the trades due to life/kids/etc. Took some good ones and followed the plans. Took a couple bad ones as well that I wasnt paying attention to the higher timeframe move. But - playing with live bullets is different from doing the retrospective review each night or sim trading during the day.
The quote above caught my eye. Always another train coming down the tracks. Dont try and jump on one that is leaving the station - might get hurt. Worse yet - it can cause you to miss the next high opportunity trade because your trying to get out of the one you just got tangled up in.
You have some guts and tenacity posting up like this for all to see. I continue to get some serious benefit from reading your posts along with the responses from the other traders. Thank you!
Next week start new - commit to doing one thing better than this week - and it will be a success.
Peace & Prosperity
P
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Found this thread yesterday - and spent a few minutes doing the Thales H/L method. Ideal entry not available (too far ranging) for this trade - but did find a nice low risk entry into the retracement to a previous pivot low after the H/L/H/L pattern shifted from downward to upward.
Thanks to Thales & Browns Fan for this thread.
Trader P/L 2010
in Traders Log
Posted
Ugh - workman like day. Missed the final short of the day due to pickin up a kid at school. Grinding day - tested the market out on a couple trial trades and stopped out for small losses. Got it back - then lost a small amount in the ES on that 15 minute Rally-base-drop from overnight.
Entries: C- A little too much dicking around with "trial" trades. Not truly in the plan. Shouldnt be doing em...Missed a nice trade early in the morning by getting stopped out - just got in TOO early.
Exits: C- : Here is the kicker...had two trades that were 2:1 winners - and had targets just over that. Neither target hit and both retraced into small losses. Was not in front of the computer for one - and the other - well I stubbornly waited for another tick on the ES. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. Should have been a nice 150 dollar day...instead it is a -60 day.
(I know - small potatoes...I still am trading small...funny thing is - I think nothing of spending 60 dollars on some good wine or a nice steak dinner - and it KILLS me when I lose it on trading. Something in my psyche that I need to examine about that.)
Stops: B+ I followed em. Why I didnt have a worse day.
PreMarket Prep: F. Didnt get in front of the screens till 830. Kid duty today.