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VolumeJedi
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Correct. At 1700 EST the values are taken and plotted "forward" just as you would calculate the floor pivots at the close and plot them for the next day. Actually, it is the value at 1700 that is used, you can plot them anytime before the next day, but they continually update (which is how they are presented by JPearl). I should note that I said they continue to update after the close. I am speaking of 24 hr market like forex. If you trade the E-mini, the you could choose to ignore the globex session all together.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
The place to get the definitions is in the Market Statistics threads by JPearl. The PVP is what many call the Poc (Point of control) in Market Profile. PVP stands for Peak Volume Price. HUPs, Hold Up Prices, are places where the market tends to stall, reverse, possibly bounce, and sometimes ignore. They cover static areas like Yesterday's high or low, or S1,S2. HUPs are also dynamic areas like VWAPs and SDs of the various VWAPs. I have been using the dynamic HUPs in a static fashion. That is, my HUPs while based on the dynamic VWAPS do not change throughout the day. They are measured at the end of the day and projected forward like one would do with pivot points. I recently watched a TG video where a Wyckoff expert asserted that there are 9 tests. In another video Tom himself echoes that there are 9 types of tests. Unfortunately, neither goes into depth about each 9. But one is a narrow range down bar, closing on its high with volume less than the previous two bars. Another type of test actually closes up, and has volume less than the previous two bars, and with a narrow range that trades lower than the previous bar. Eiger is the resident Wyckoffian here so maybe he can illuminate us on all 9.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
I was just thinking the same thing.- 2244 replies
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VSA emphasizes the use of multiple timeframes. Personally, I don't like looking at multiple charts to see what is going on in each timeframe. However, I do think that knowing where key levels of support or resistance are formed on higher timeframes is important. There is no point in getting caught up in "is this a break out on the 5 min or just a move within the range on the 15 min". As it clearly can be both and both can be tradable. Having an idea of where the Hold Up Prices or Focus Lines are is the more immediate point. Is price moving towards the second standard deviation of a weekly (5 day) VWAP on the 4 min chart? Is volume decreasing as price falls towards the low of the monthly chart range? Such questions are the relevant ones and you only need one chart to trade it. Once you put in the lines or areas at the start of the day for example. Some might even have software capable of doing it automatically and updating in real-time (i.e. dynamic Hups). I wont get into the VSA stuff here, but here is a picture of what I am talking about. The first pic shows a short trade set up at SDw-1. This is the first standard deviation of a 2 week VWAP. (higher timeframe). The Profit target would be a gap fill that takes us to SDw-2: the second standard deviation of that weekly VWAP. The next chart shows the result. The market statistics boys and girls will see an entry (short) at the Daily(yesterday's) VWAP labeled Shapiro Effect. The point here, is that only one chart is used to trade and the various HUPs come from different timeframes.
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
" Under-trading in both size and frequency." Many traders strive (correctly) to under trade in both size and frequency. The focus here is on the latter. One way to under trade in frequency is to employ a method that does not generate signals very often. One can define certain trade set-ups that have minute details that rarely happen. The thought being , the more rare the situation, the better the result will be. If a market is doing something it usually does, then the result should be usual. But if the market is doing something it rarely does, then the result should be exceptional. Another way to under trade in frequency is simply to become comfortable being in the market. As Jesse Livermore said, "Being right and sitting tight; that's where the money is". This trade developed over a rather long stretch of time. Again this was a New Year's Eve "called" trade and not a trade taken. The first chart shows the set up and the second shows the result. Like so many VSA set ups, we start with an ultra wide spread bar on ultra high volume. At the time the volume was the highest that can be seen on the chart. But the next bar is up and not down. Also there are some tops to the left so this could be pushing thru supply. If it is, the market will test immediately. The next bar has even more volume as the range narrows. This is a squat. This signals supply (weakness) on both this bar and the prior bar. The next bar is even narrower and the volume is higher. Another squat. Something is keeping the range of the last two bars narrow. Could it be over head supply? The next bar is down and on volume less than the previous two (actually three) bars. Is this no supply? We have seen a lot of weakness on the last three bars, this should be ignored. What we really want to see to get long is a test. A down bar closing near its high on volume less than the previous two bars. This was not a test. The next bar is labeled as an up thrust. In fact it is an up thrust in the form of no demand. Note that it makes a higher high, closes up, and closes near its low. All attributes of an up thrust. But look at the volume. It is less than the previous two bars. That means this up bar on volume less then the previous two is also a no demand bar. The most aggressive might take a short here on the up thrust (in the form of no demand). Currently we are being supported by VWAP3d, but what we are looking for is another up bar on even less volume. That is, another no demand to enter. We don't get that just yet. Instead price does move down. Did we miss our opportunity? The wide spread bar that takes price down is an effort to fall. The next bar has some demand (strength) in it as price closes down on very high volume and closes near its high. This strength takes us right where we want to go: the VWAPd. At this Hold Up Price (HUP) we get a narrow range (NR7) up bar closing near the middle of its range on volume less than the previous two bars. This is no demand fails to make a higher high than the previous bar and is nestled up against the VWAP. The Shapiro Effect tells us that if a trade looks good on one bar it should look good on the next bar. In practice this would mean looking for a violation of the low of the no demand bar. But here in the VSA thread this is called JJ's completion bar concept. . The next does indeed complete the no demand, adhere to the Shapiro Effect and bring us into the market. Here is where being comfortable being in the market takes effect. The second pic shows how long we have to actually wait for this trade to move in our favor. Note that price never moves against us and never move beyond the Yellow line, but the lack of movement in either direction can be too much for some to sit through. For those who have not yet entered, there are a few chances to get on board as we see narrow range up bars on volume less than the previous two bars: no demand. If you are already in the trade, theses signs of weakness give you comfort. As the market is on its own timeframe and not any individual trader’s, price moves sideways and then in on fell swoop, rockets down to our price target more than an hour after our entry. Being right and sitting tight, is indeed where the money is.- 2244 replies
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My version. I do not want to distract from this wonderful thread, but I really wanted to post a pic. I understand this is not a VSA thread, but I must make one reference to it. Please bare with me. Below is a 4 min Euro chart from today/last night (12/31/2008). As is the last day of the year, no trade was taken but it was "called" as it happened. Note there are various HUPs on this chart. There is a major difference between my HUPs and Jerry's. All the solid lines represent dynamic HUPs used in a static fashion. That is, at 1700 hrs (the close as per my data feed) the values are taken and projected forward to the next trading day. Therefore, the VWAPd is the daily VWAP as of the close the previous day. The two dotted lines are dynamic. The Aqua line is the VWAPc (C for current) and the Yellow is the PVPc. Note that on the chart, the PVPc is equal to the PVP from the prior day, so it may be a bit hard to see. As for the trade. We were in a down trend. As defined by price trading below both the VWAPd and the VWAPc. There was a trade at the VWAPd, but that is in the VSA thread. Here we want to look at a "Market Statistics" trade at the fist standard deviation of VWAPd. Up until about 0612, the VWAPc was above the PVPc. Newbie was looking to make shorts due to the trend but did not yet have skew in his favor. Things changed at 0612. The VWAPc finally went below the PVPc. Price was near the SD-1. Time to look to get short. According to the Shapiro Effect, we would want to look for an up bar that pass through the SD-1 and then a down bar that violates the low of that bar. In VSA terms, we get a two bar reversal, which also qualifies as the Shapiro Effect @ 0640. Short trade set up with a target of SD-2. Two bars and roughly 40 pips later, SD-2 is hit. Jerry hasn't mentioned this yet, but we pass thru SD3d-1 (first standard deviation for a 3 day VWAP) and it may be possible to then target the second standard deviation of this WVAP rather than just SD-2. Am I correct on this Jerry? As it happens, price does move down to SD3d-2 and along the way moves thru SDw-1 (weekly) and ultimately stops at SDw-2. Thank you for indulging me. Thanks Jerry for your considerable time and effort. They say when you teach you learn twice. I hope you have gotten at least half of what you have given me (us).
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Not trading at this time of day or this time of the year. However, I continue to watch the market. While watching the market there was a beautiful set up here. WARNING: FOREX HAS NO VOLUME, SO THIS CAN'T WORK Just kidding. Some background information. The first thing to note is that the trend is down. We know the trend is down as price is below the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). Those that have read Jerry's super threads will note that skew exists to the upside as the VWAP is above the PVP. The primary concept at this point would be to only take longs (trade in the direction of the skew). There is a lot more to it than that. Please see his threads for more information. Here, the trade is based on the trend, which as previously noted, is down because price is below the VWAP. A: At A we see a somewhat wide spread down bar on ultra high volume. Bars like this usually mean selling. This is confirmed as the next bar is down. This bar is an effort to fall bar. When strength appears, it appears on down bars, but in this case the down bar is weak. The ultra high volume should get our attention though. B: The next bar closes down on even higher volume than A. But look at the differences. 1. It closes higher off its low than A closes of its low. 2. The next bar is up. The increased volume closing off the lows with the next bar up are sure signs of strength (demand) entering the market. C: Narrow range up bar on equal (Ultra High) volume. This is a form of squat. The narrow range tells us that something is keeping the range narrow: over head supply (weakness). D: Narrow range up bar on volume less than the previous two bars. This is no demand. We note that this also a NR4 bar making a higher high and not a lower low. In other words, a Dunnigan bar. We also note that the BBs are not interested in higher prices as we move up towards the Peak Volume Price (PVP). It's time to get short: 1. The trend is down. 2. We see an up bar on low volume. This gives us a low volume bar in the range of a high volume bar. This price area brought in buyers the first time, but is now failing to do so. 3. Price is finding overhead resistance at the PVP Hold Up Price (HUP). What's our price target? Well, it would be SD-1. This is the first standard deviation of the VWAP and another HUP. There are a couple of HUPs before then in the form of VWAPw (5 day/weekly) and VWAP2w (10 day/ 2 week), but the target should still be at SD-1. Where can we place a stop? The logical place to do so would be at the VWAP. Personally, I do not believe in adding to a losing position. So the VWAP is a good stop and not a place to look to be scaling in. Price slides through the 2 VWAPs and does indeed get held up at SD-1. Volume spread analysis and Volume distribution statistics....but this is forex. LOL- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
JJ, I just started using the 4 minute and I am finding it pretty nice. Putting all the esoteric numerology theories aside, it's just a good mix of the 5 and 3 minute charts. As for #3 on the previous chart. The entire post had two themes: 1. Looking for up bars on volume less than the previous two bars (no demand) is good way to look for entries. However, up bars on narrow ranges with increasing volume, squats/some up thrusts, also make good entries. And we sometimes focus our attention on the former rather than the latter to our own detriment. 2. Once you draw a channel, correctly or incorrectly, there are certain constraints placed on entries based on the understanding of what a channel means. If I had not drawn that channel, #3 is my ideal entry. I would have gone short on the close of that no demand bar. There is enough weakness in the background and the bar is a NR4. (In fact, I was looking for point 2 to be no demand but the volume increased making it a squat. And as point 1 tries to make, a good entry if we are not simply focused on volume less than the previous two bars.) However, I had drawn the channel and now the appearance of the no demand must be taken within the context of the channel. We are at the demand line. We have just seen some support come in on the previous bar. This bar means a bit more with the channel drawn than without it. Since it shows prices not yet willing to close below the channel. Then we see the trap up move bar. Very nice pick up JJ. This bar closes below the channel. Another good sign of weakness. But here is the thing: We do not want to go short on a down bar. Therefore, we would start looking for an up bar on low volume (no demand). The market does not give us that, but it does give us #4. A narrow range up bar on increasing volume. This is a squat and a good place to short. If one is too focused on no demands, this entry might get missed.- 2244 replies
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I disagree. Price Action only traders, of which there are many types, are not seeing indicators in price. They are seeing in price what indicators attempt to see in price. Price Action traders simply see it quicker and more purely.
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Entries Galore This chart offers a good opportunity for some learning. The question for you is, what entry do you prefer (either the ones number on any other)? I will start with enter #4 first. #4: This should look familiar as it has many of the characteristics of the currency post by Tawe Trader. We have weakness entering on the first bar marked SOW. This is a wide spread up bar on ultra high volume with the next bar down. There must have been selling within that bar. This is one reason the markets don't like up bars on ultra high volume. Two bars later, we see another wide spread up bar on ultra high volume closing of its high with the next bar down. At this point, The channel is drawn. Whilst there was a discernable up trend in place, this may be a bit early to draw our channel (more on this later). We have seen some up thrusts, and some squats. Then we see a no demand right before we fall out of the channel. This entry is on a squat. It is an up bar with a narrow range on increasing volume closing just off the middle of the range. This is a weak bar. The narrow range on increasing volume tells us that something is keeping the range narrow: over head supply. Price outside the channel, weakness in the background, higher volume bar with a narrower range closing up. Time to get short. Unlike Tawe's example we have a squat rather than a no demand. Nevertheless, this is a good place to get short. #1: Check out bar number 1. It is an up bar on high volume closing off its high with a narrow range. This is a squat. But look at the next bar it closes down and near its lows. Put the two bars together and we have an Up thrust over two bars. So here we have weakness behind us, we are in the upper portion of our channel and we see an up thrust. The aggressive trader might enter on this bar. Tom Williams says up thrusts (in the right place) are some of the best bars to go short on. There is room to the bottom of the channel where we might expect to see demand enter. #2: In case you missed it, the market gives you another opportunity to get short on another squat. Note that we are at the middle of our channel and finding some resistance. The bar fails to close above our middle channel line. #3: Here is where things get tricky. If you prefer to look for a no demand after an up thrust, this is your bar. It has volume less than the previous two bars with a range less than the previous bar. In fact it is a NR4 bar. But let's take a closer look at the situation. The previous bar had demand come into the market. It closed within the channel, even though it traded out of the channel. If you look at the no demand, it is supported at the low by the channel line. And we are now in the lower quartile of the channel where we would like to see tests, or no supply: reasons to get long. The trend after all, is up. If no channel was drawn in the first place, then we have a great place to get short. This is the ideal situation where you have weakness in the background follow by an up thrust then followed by a no demand. Did I draw the channel too soon? This brings us back to #4. The channel may have indeed been placed correctly. The market simply has chosen to go down. It does seem to respect it though. #4 is a move back towards the channel that is meet with over head supply causing a narrow range up bar , or squat. Markets do not like up bars on high volume especially if the range is narrow. Channel or no channel, get short young man. In my opinion, the channel helps support taking a short at 1,2, and 4. It hurts at 3. In the end, however, the issue is not the channel but about understanding the power of narrow range up bars on high volume (increasing). Simply waiting for no demand can be a bit myopic and hurt our bottom line: the P&L.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
WOW. The wealth of knowledge that this thread provides continues to amaze and delight. Thank you both for your participation. Enjoy the holiday season and have a prosperous new year both in trading and life in general. (But don't get so prosperous that you feel posting is a waste of time ). I also like seeing more currency trades. WTG.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Funny how things work. LOL. I just got done watching a couple of videos on the TG website. (I know, I need a life ). In the first video a wide spread down bar closing near its highs on ultra high volume with next bar up appears. Gavin gleefully states, " There are no accidents in these markets ladies and gentleman". Then he proceeds to place a fib tool on the chart by drawing a line from the high to the low. To the tick, a 32.8% retracement. In the second one, somebody asks him if he uses fibs. Of course you can't hear the question or see it but Gavin replies, "Yes, I do use fibs and some other things but I an not going to discuss them in an open forum. I will tell you this; the number 4". Now the reference to the number 4 could be Murrey Math, could be Lucas Numbers, could be time cycle or it could be a biblical number reference among any other number of things. But in both videos he admits to using fibs in one way or another. The statement "there are no accidents" infers that either the BBs use them or a force greater than themselves comples them to act around these numbers. Now that I think about it, I think I read somewhere that Tom only wanted VSA signs, pivot clusters, floor pivots, a channel drawing tool and fibs in Tradeguider originally. So while this doesn't prove that the Smart Money cares that Pluto is in retrograde with Venus; and I suspect they don't. It does seem to imply that a rudimentary understanding of Fibonacci (or its cousin Murrey Math) is shared by most BBs.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Take a look at the Alan Box. It is basically a box that takes the high and the low of a period and calculates the fib ratios of that distance. The golden mean ubiquitous in the universe. But let's keep this about VSA. Generally speaking, signs of strength coming in on a fib line are more powerful than random ones. If only for the fact that it allows a trader to under trade in frequency. You're not taking every no demand bar on a chart, only certain ones. The fact that the BBs continually show themselves at these levels gives confidence in the levels however they are formed. Take a look at the first chart from the previous post. I doubt seriously if the BBs are sitting there saying "we have a circle of conflict above us, so let's not be bullish". However, from our stand point we see weakness in the background. The trend is obviously down. Then we see rising prices on lower volume. We see a wide spread up bar on increasing volume, and VSA tells us markets don't like this kind of bar. Then we get a narrow range bar (NR7) on volume less than the previous two bars. Classic VSA sign of no demand by the BBs. It has added weight because it appears to be coming where there is natural over-head resistance. More than anything, the circle would cause you to pay more attention as price moved towards it. Which in turn means you are less likely to miss the no demand and be more likely to pull the trigger. And that is what it is all about.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Mars, you're very kind to say that. I have attached two charts with what I have been using lately. The first chart shows price from Friday with the full modified Alan's box only. I like this, but I think it takes away from price action a bit. It is pretty cool how we see a no demand in both time and price where we would expect it. This box was drawn after the close (1700 est.) on Thursday and ran until 1700 est. on Friday. However, the Forex market closes an hour early on Friday. 24hrs on 4 min chart equals 360 bars in the box. 360 is a perfect circle (Gann). The second chart shows the box that would be used for Monday. The lines on the left are "harmonic pivots" and are another set of lines based on Murrey Math (base 10 set inside an octave of music). Like traditional pivot points, these lines are based on HLC. The box uses HL for the lines and TIME for the angular set at 45 degrees or 1x1 (Gann). In the end, I am trying to find the right amount of HUPs (Hold Up Prices). In fact, rather than calling them HUPs, I prefer the term Focus Lines. As price moves towards them, you focus your attention on it. Take JJ's last chart for example, that two bar reversal at the poc followed by a no demand would be a perfect trade. The fact that it occurred on a focus line only helps because you would be focused on the chart as price moved towards it.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Nice way to end the day/week........ A: Down bar closing near its highs with above average volume. But take a closer look: the range is less than the previous bar and the volume is increasing. This is a squat. Demand enters the market at his point. We like the location of this bar as it is just above the yellow line. B: After the squat we get a bit of a rise in price but then price drifts downwards again. We see a down bar at the yellow line that has volume less than the previous two bars. This is no supply. The next bar completes the pattern. We can't yet jump aboard the train. There is still a lot of weakness (supply) in the background. But something appears to be changing. C: The market responds to the no supply and the squat by moving up. Then we see a wide spread down bar on very high volume that closes off its low with the next bar up. The wide spread, the very high volume (relative to the previous bars), the down close with the next bar up, are all "tells". The BBs are buying on this bar. VSA teaches us that the volume shows their activity and the down close with the next bar up shows their intent. D: Wider spread bar than the previous 3 bars on a down bar that closes in the middle of its range on increasing volume. This bar is pure strength. E: Narrow range down bar closing in the middle of its range on volume less than the previous two bars. This is a test. There are 9 different types of tests and this is one of the better ones. We note that this bar is a NR7 and an inside bar. We also note that the bar is within the range of the wide spread down bar. Hence, if there was selling in the high volume on the large down bar, now we are finding no volume when price trades in the same area on the chart. Time to get long. Place a stop just under the green line. first objective: blue line (what will become the top quartile of the channel see #G.) F: We are in tune with the market as price does begin to move up. Bar F is not a nice bar. 3 bars earlier we have a wider spread bar closing up and closing in the middle on increasing volume. Supply clearly enters here. Note this bar is the opposite of the bar at D. These principles go both ways. . With that bar in the immediate background, F shows itself. It is a narrow range up bar on volume less than the previous two bars. It is no demand. G: Wide spread down bar closing in the upper portion of its range with very high volume. Looks like a shake out. If this bar was bearish the close should be lower, especially on that volume. When this bar completes, we now see 2 lows and an intermediate high so we can draw a channel. If the next bar closes below the low of the shake out, no biggie we are wrong on the channel. As it turns out, the next bar is down but the range narrows and the volume drops off. Looks like a high volume test. Price begins to head north and we feel good about our channel. We want to get out before the close and it looks like other have the same idea. Wide spread up bar prior to the two last bars is the bar to exit. Target hit. We are now in the upper portion of the channel and the day is near end.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Just a few thoughts. The candle you point to is climatic action/ stopping volume. Demand definitely entered on this bar. It has ultra high volume with the next bar up. If the down close actually represented selling, then the next bar should not be up. The background is still full of weakness and a long trade is not yet advised. What you would want to see is a test first. A test would be a narrow range bar closing down, closing in the middle or high on volume less than the previous two bars. The best place to see this test is within the range of the high volume climatic action bar. One thing to watch out for would be a no demand in the area of the pink lines on the chart. This would mean the weakness in the market is still prevalent.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
You are correct. But what make the absolute best no demands are Dunnigan bars that are also NR7s. A Dunnigan bar makes a higher high and not a lower low. This really gets the herd excited. They see a market making higher highs and closing up. Too bad they can't read volume and spread. The volume signals no professional activity and the range reinforces this lack of BB participation....... By the way, an ideal test would be a Dunnigan bar to the downside. Where the market makes a lower low and not a higher high, closing down from the previous bar and closing in the middle or high. Here again, the making of a new low confuses the uninformed because lower lows is a necessary condition (correctly) for a down trend.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
I like that second no demand bar JJ. It's an NR4 bar that does not make a higher high and just look at that volume .- 2244 replies
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Taylor Trading Technique
VolumeJedi replied to Dogpile's topic in Swing Trading and Position Trading
Eiger, I thought Angell uses 3 days and calls it LSS. -
[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
What day in the 3 day cycle would you say this is? Would be interesting if it was the Buy day. As for the bar at A: clear sign of a transfer of ownership. The BBs were selling to the weak hands at that point.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Right edge summary: A: Market moving up and then we see a wide spread up bar on ultra high volume that closes off its high with the next bar down. Supply enters on this bar. Why else would the next bar be down? B: Price falls a bit and then retraces up. Blue angluar acts as support. We see an up bar closing near its low on increased volume. This is an up thrust. Price fails to close above the angluar and volume increases as we close near the low: there must be supply (weakness) on this bar. Now we have seen weakness enter in the form of an ultra high volume bar and in the form of an up thrust. C: The best place to go short. Narrow range (NR7) bar closing up on volume less than the previous two bars. This is no demand. Note that price is finding resistance at the blue line. Note also that our no demand is within the range of the high volume bar. In other words the market has moved back into a place where there was high volume but this time the volume has dried up. The BBs are not interested in higher prices: get short young man. First price target: the green and the purple lines below. Price does indeed move down to the first target. In fact, it trades down to and thru the green line to the purple line, but closes just above the green line. Sheded some contracts here. The very next bar completes a two bar reversal pattern and is kind of scary. The high of the second bar takes us above the most recent no demand. Therefore, exited the rest of position.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Right edge trade. Here's the pic, explanation to follow.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Bill Williams coined the term. It refers to a bar that has volume greater than the previous bar and a decreasing MFI (Market Facilitation Index). The less technical definition is simply a bar with a narrower range than the previous bar on volume greater than the previous bar. Bill Williams states that a squat is a battle ground between the bulls and the bears...... From a VSA perspective, the bar is similarly significant. As the range narrows and the volume increases, we have to ask "why?". If the Market Makers were bullish (assume an up bar) then the range would be wider. They would want to let the herd in at increasing prices. But if the spread is narrow, it must be that they are bearish. Since they can see both sides of the market, the would be bearish if they see large sell orders above the market. Hence the keep the spread (range) narrow. The herd thinks they are getting a good price but they're wrong. One of the most powerful VSA signs is "end of a raising market". This is an up bar on very high to ultra high volume, closing on middle or high on a narrow spread into new high ground. This is a squat. "So by simple observation of the spread of the bar, we can read the sentiment of the market-makers; the opinion of those who can see both sides of the market." Tom Williams, MTM, p.28. We have to ask ourselves, "What did the market do on that volume?". If the volume is high and the range is narrow, then something was keeping the range narrow. In the case of an up bar, that would be over-head supply (weakness). Of course, we can have squats on both up and down bars.- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
VolumeJedi replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Trade for expectancy not accuracy. This looked so good when it was setting up: A: Slightly lower close on increasing volume that has a lower than the bar 3 bars earlier. Both trade below the green line but fail to close below it. We are seeing some support in an area where we would like to see it. B: Wide spread up bar on ultra high volume. After seeing some support we get this bar. The markets don't like ultra high volume up bars. There could be some selling in this bar. If this is bullish we should see an immediate test. If we do not see a test right away, there is an ideal place to see one....... (The very next bar is an up bar on a narrow spread closing near the middle of its range on volume less than the previous two bars. No demand.) C: Up thrust. The volume is low but the market is marked up than taken back down to close near the low. This is a sign of weakness but an ideal up thrust would close up and on the low , not down. D: High volume down bar closing off its low. There is some demand (strength) on this bar. High volume down bars usually mean supply (weakness), but if the volume is excessive, then there must be buying hidden within that bar. That looks to be the case here. E: This is the one the got me. :crap: We see a down bar on volume less than the previous two bars closing in the middle with a narrow range. The range makes this bar a NR7. This is a test. Note that this test is within the range of our Ultra high volume candle. Plus the test is on the blue angled line. At this point the wide spread up bar looked to me to be pushing thru supply and therefore bullish. It has been tested in the ideal place. Looks like the BBs are poised to take the market higher. Time to get long. F: After a small move to the up side the market rolls over and we see an interesting bar at F. It has volume less than the previous two bars, closes on its high and closes up from the previous bar. It could be no demand or it could be a test. The fact that the bar makes a lower low and not a higher high than the previous bar leads me to think it is a test. And the low is not lower than the previous test bar. Also note that the next bar is up not down. This confirms that it was not no demand. G: Wide spread down bar closing lower than the test bar. I don't look at the open, but that was probably a wrb. At any rate, the close lower than the test bar shows "no result from a test" a sign of weakness. This bar takes us out of the market. Feed back encouraged.- 2244 replies
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I think there is a bit of semantics involved here. * The vast majority of the elite are going to be price action only type traders. * A smaller amount of this group, do in fact use indicators to trade. * And a group that is larger than the second but smaller than the first do have MACD or RSI or a moving average on their screens. However, they do not base their trading decisions on the indicators. The indicators are only there to show the traders where/when/why the uninformed (read vast majority of indicator traders) are entering the market. The fact that they have an indicator on the chart does not mean they are not price action only traders. Therefore the largest majority of the elite are price action only traders. Despite the fact that some in this group would actually still have an indicator or two on their charts. The next issue with semantics is what you are calling an indicator. Is volume an indicator? Are market profile lines indicators? Are floor pivots indicators? What about trend lines and channels? Is Pyrapoint an indicator? What about horizontal fib lines? certainly all the above are used to indicate various elements of price movement in time , space, or in price itself. But isn't that what Williams blau's Ergodic does? Or woodies CCI? I consider myself a price action only trader, but I use volume and do not believe it is an indicator. At the same time, I believe volume is the indicator.