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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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more action below 2780 it seems. Gringo
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50% RET was a neat little trick Db! Gringo
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2785-2786 might give some clue as to the strength or weakness of demand.
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looking for test around 2782. looks like successful test. edit\: 2780 test. though price is not rebounding enthusiastically as early morning.
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2793 failed BO? Short below?
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look like 2793 could have a BO upwards.
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2798 2793 2788 2780 There's quite a bit of space between 2788/7 to 2780. That's a 7-8 point drop if price goes there. For early decision making 2788 above is long and below it is short. 2793 above is long and below might be short. The tricky part is that the range is 5 points wide, which is not wide enough but may act as a launching pad for a directional move either way. I'll see price behaviour but most likely take the position when presented. NQ has been giving false signals early and then going in the opposite direction. Sill I am going to take the entry as you never know which might not be the fake. Gringo p.s. There's a holiday in Canada today so I might be distracted as I am home. Might just leave in the middle if domestic pressure increases
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For you tupapa: To trade of daily chart looking at the weekly becomes important to identify longer term S&R zones. Weekly: Daily: Gringo
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Today seemed like one of the easier days. The speed of the price movement was deliberate and not violent. The last drop was a bit faster but even that played out predictably. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to identify the last test around 2840 in RT (circled in red). Perhaps I unconsciously took S/R as fixed at around 2839 instead of where traders determine it ought to be, leading to a lapse in judgement. After price dropped below 2839 and my drawn S/R my mind started to wonder what was that I had missed in identifying the weakness earlier. It is the delicate balance of demand and supply around S/R zones that is key to this mystery that is price. I am enjoying this rule based observation as the question no longer is whether price did something unexpected, but whether I was able to recognize my pre-planned and pre-determined price behaviour in real time. There are no worries about news, or whether it is good or bad. All I know and need to know is my set-up and whether it's present in the price behaviour or not. What a relief it is to not have my whole life consumed with indicators, economic policies, shortages, government interventions and so many other valid but unnecessary inputs. Just me and the price with a few supply and demand lines, support and resistance lines and the set-up. Yes, there is work involved but it is to master the material, not to always be at one's wit's end trying to outsmart the smartest. What a relief it is to not be at the mercy of the trading gods. What a pleasure in being one's own master. What freedom in being free. Gringo
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Isn't price behaving too predictably today? I feel as if it's a piece of cake. 1) Drop from R, SL break 2) Strength upwards DL break. 3) Hinge -> BO -> RET -> DL -> DL break. 4) Back under R...and continuing. Price is moving a bit slower today compared to the past few days. Perhaps that's why it's easier or we're just getting used to seeing this kind of price behaviour now? Gringo
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Here's the chart for the possible hinge: It is exciting to see this price behaviour in real time. Gringo
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Gringo
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Hello eminiman414, Welcome! It's good to have another fresh voice in the forum. Feel free to ask questions and enjoy the process of looking at price in a new way. It's like taking the "red pill." :cheers: Gringo
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Yes, it all makes sense. Thanks Db. We need the chat room...could have been heavenly and efficient with it. Perhaps I'll send another email to the power brokers. Gringo
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Db, B shows a solid strength of demand in action. Does A also give a preliminary green signal to attempt a long? 1) S/R is at hand. 2) SL is broken. 3) Test successful. 4) Price rise ensues. Based on these qualifications A also seems to fit the bill for demand asserting itself. It is a bit earlier but is it wrong for someone to attempt a long there based on the above four points? Gringo
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Db, Do you mean the LSH at 14? Gringo
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I missed 3 violent up moves at 10:00 previously on three consecutive days. Does that mean another is in the offing today? Gringo
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How could we tell? S/R tell us whether it's a RET or REV, but they are everywhere. Gringo Edit: The fact that price wasn't able to go up after 2812 to above 2816 tells it's not a REV but a RET?
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I have reverted to back testing. It is a tedious process but must be done properly to have consistent success. I had confused/mixed back testing with forward testing and forgotten the real purpose of both. Even with a weak plan I have more or less stopped losing much in the RT. With proper back-testing and the kinks ironed out it doesn't seem too outrageous to believe consistent profitability might actually become a reality. I am getting far ahead of myself here. The grunt work lies ahead. I am going to be active in the RT thread as the points raised there actually do help in identifying weaknesses and strengths. Still, I no long am paper-trading and only observing price behaviour. Gringo
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Important levels for today: 2826 and 2819 with midpoint at 2823.50. Premarket levels of importance: 2816 and 2814. 2819 is a longer term S/R and price breached this level in premarket. I would expect market to test the upper range of the new mini s/r at 2826 if it has strength. PDH: 2826 PDL: 2790 Gringo
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I also had a mind boggling day. Tried something new by bringing stops closer. At the start it helped when price was quickly changing directions and I felt as if I had mastered how to handle price and was smiling. Then I started missing the moves because of stops being so close. Price would pick my stop and go in the intended direction leaving me tattered. I started to get frustrated and tried to figure out whether the trend was down or up but did widened my stops back to normal. The upside move after price touched 2790 was missed by me. I was unable to decipher after the down move and so many unnecessary exits whether it was worth taking . Today's objective was to keep trading without remorse and prior result but couldn't pull the trigger again on the long after sustaining cuts earlier. I did see the price quickly rebounding from 2790 and not even coming back down and even firming up. Should have taken the long but froze. :crap: Eventually with stops getting back to normal I made my way back from the hole and reduced the losses to -0.25 point. I could see this day even with missing the large up move to be at least a 5-6 points gain day without pulling that stunt with closer stops. There is a reason some space is given for price to move before bailing on a trade. The moment that space was taken away things started to unravel for my trading. Today was my 3rd missed long move in a row. Every day I miss a long move that arrives after downward moves and is fast and furious and usually around 10:00. Something is not right. I'll be studying all three missed moves from the past three days tonight. Quite a bit of learning in 90 mins. I was also wondering whether trading only at significant S/R might be wiser instead of all over the place. Then agin how does one know in advance which S/R might turn important in advance? Got to look at myself for improvement and keep at it. Mental problems are more glaring than technique per say. Gringo
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Larger TR is still 2820 to 2780. Immediately 2803 is interesting. I'll keep an eye on it. There's an interesting mini hinge right in the middle of all. Today I'll attempt to take all entries irrespective of previous gain/loss. Especially losses. Gringo Edit: I removed a lot of pink lines as they were distracting and confusing me. Clearer chart is better and I can always look to the left.
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Yes, the drop to around 2788 and a quick move up above 2789. 2789 and below I went short and then got stopped out on the rise up above 2789. Around 10:04 am EST. Gringo
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After the SL break and exit around 12790, I re-shorted when price fell but it rebounded quickly, forcing me to exit. (In hindsight I am not sure whether it was a good short as price was close to S/R.) The test being lower caused some confusion. The rebound was fast but I was debating whether it was a strong enough reversal owing to the lower test. When price did continue to go up I saw the S/R's above and wasn't sure it was a good idea to go into the move so late especially price heading towards the dreaded 2798-2804 range. I waited for a RET and another test and was a bit hesitant about believing price could go back up again after having had a trip from the top. My emotions seems to have overrode the signals price was giving in this instance. Now that I think about it a similar kind of price behaviour happened yesterday before 10:00 when price dipped below and then rebounded nullifying my short. It seems it takes me a bit of time when I am forced to exit, right after an entry, to reverse my position. This ought to have been a sign that the initial diagnosis was faulty and I better get ready for SAR. I should have heeded the signal given that shorts weren't working, the SL was broken and even though test was lower it was nonetheless a test as price did move upwards. Price was also at S/R. :doh: The proper thing was to take the long with a close stop and leave the guessing and emotionalizing to the masses. Now this does seem like something worthy of my Trading Plan! Gringo
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Today at the start was tougher as I was getting stopped out. Market tested the drop below 2798 or so and that short didn't work out then went up above 2804 and that also got stopped out. Didn't want to play within the 2998-2804 range (I had incorrectly written 2800 as the low in the Trading in Foresight thread but didn't have the time to fix the comment). In any case the charts started dying on me. I started missing moves trying to refresh and realizing after some time price wasn't moving. I didn't get the long from 2790. I am not certain if I just missed it altogether or the charts giving me problems unsettled me and I felt disoriented without the flow of the price in front of me and also losing my S/R on charts after the refresh. That was a big move in hindsight. Price was going from the 2798-2804 range without much hindrance so eventually I shorted around 2803-2804 and got the down move. There was more to be had but that's all there is for today. I did feel stressed today especially after starting in the red and having to wait some time before a good entry delivered to the green side. Had 9 entries today with 6 loosing, 2 gaining and 1 BE. The two gains bailed out the wrongs. One missed long at 2790 . I am going to look into a streaming web-based futures data provider just to even paper trade as my head's spinning after the stoppages in charts. Web-based because at work streaming data for NinjaTrader didn't work so options are limited. Net gain of 4.75 points. Gringo
