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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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This post looks at different approaches to exiting in a trending market. In this particular instance the price exhibited the below behaviour repeatedly: Drop SL break Drop and stall Drop Although, the trend is down, the stalling and SL breaks caused multiple exits and entries and I found trading this trend quite a challenge. This stalling may not be after every drop but in RT I started to see it as such. I did notice the price not going above the LSH and re-tried the replay leading to an ace in one kind of trade. This lead me to examine further the advantages and disadvantages of exiting at SL break or LSH. The below points summarize the tradeoffs: SL exit: is fast efficient and one gets to keep some profit off the bat. Re-entry is an issue as more engagement is required to keep up with the trend. Emotionally it's the easiest one to handle. Management vise it's a bit tougher. LSH exit: gives some space to the price to breathe. Seems to catch most of the trend but the exits are farther from the lowest point. Emotionally it's tougher because of the price at times backing up quite a bit leading to emotional unease. Management vise it's the easiest. (Another problem is that in RT it is not known whether the trend will continue and if the trend is not long enough or consistent enough the profits evaporate) Combination of both approaches: With multiple contracts the best of both worlds could be used with partial exits at SL break, S/R, and LSH leading to a more controlled behaviour. Circumstantial use: Meaning under certain conditions SL is used and under others SLH? What are those conditions and how do I determine and test them? Doesn't it become arbitrary then? I have also contemplated drawing SL somehow differently but they have served me well in the past. Changing them for a price behaviour that may not occur that often doesn't seem appropriate. Besides, the whole point of the SL is to show the supply/demand dynamics in RT and alert to possible changes. Below are the charts that lead to this inquiry. Two use SL exits (I tried to play with SL a bit), one uses LSH exits, and the last one is for those who wish you show how they would have done it. Gringo
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zdo, You are an Austrian in the truest sense! Gringo
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Db, How does a failed thrust add value? Thrust is from TR meaning the failure takes the price potentially to the bottom of the TR, doesn't it? Why is it any different from a normal range BO failure? Gringo
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Db, I couldn't recognize it even in hindsight until you mentioned it. It's not in my plan but I'll attempt to keep an eye on it for future induction. It is one of the weirder set-ups. The end result is remarkable though. Gringo
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Price decides to move right after our cut-off time at 11:00. Gringo
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I don't pay any attention to claims anymore! It's just me and the price. Gringo
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2720 to 2752 seems to be the range for today. There are multiple S/R along the way. Yesterday's link to the chat is still functional and traders have gathered there already. 2752 2746 2744 2737 2727 2722 2719 2716 Gringo
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Hi Tupapa, Although the Euro-Bund is below R, there seem to be in my opinion significant potential for an upside move. The longer chart will show the rise and then the drop gets arrested and price consolidating in a trading range. Also notice the lower high. Only the really small bar interval is showing a chance of a short but even that with the steep rise in price is questionable. You do know price does whatever it does so stay alert but keep this upside bias that I am providing in mind as well. If weakness develops there is no harm in attempting shorts. Good luck with your trading and stick to your plan. Gringo
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It's gone. I didn't think of compromising an entry around 35-36 but was tempted. There are quite a few lurkers in the Wyckoff forum. For those interested in trying a chat can try the below link. Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! • » stinto.net « Gringo
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Levels: 2720 2700 There's also this 2727-2737.5 TR which I believe just might prove interesting for today. There is enough room in the 2727 -2737.5 TR to be playable. Gringo
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Tomer, You're in the Wyckoff forum. Expect some magic. Gringo
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The Grinkoff Indicator, which involves a synthesis of overbought/oversold, price/volume and momentum has started to produce respectable results. It was the indicator that alerted me to the support at 30. I'll be testing it more rigorously in the coming weeks but am in a hurry today to catch an express train to my vacation spot from platform 9 3/4. Gringo
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Yes, these are just in case. They are quite insignificant, like an embryo at the onset. Gringo
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Oh! I see what you mean. More to think about. Thanks. Gringo
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I have 30, 27 and 22 as the next possible levels. The pace has increased for price, chance for some kind of capitulation? I don't have volume anymore so will have to see price behaviour only. Gringo
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Db, Exiting with gain isn't an issue. It's when a new position is initiated and there isn't a DL/SL to guide. More or less I use the swing low to place a stop just in case price makes a run for one side or the other. These stops though at times are 2-3 points wide. Gringo
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46 and 42 are the next S/R more or less. Gringo
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Stop outs because of wider price movement are around 3 points in some cases. Is that reasonable? I am not sure how to reduce it without compromising logical points of exit. Or am I missing something? Usually I exit before the stops are hit but they are there as at times price has moved quite quickly against my position. Doutreval of Dijon: Think of this. A sword is like a bird. If you clutch it too tightly, you choke it - too lightly and it flies away. Scaramouche I think a stop is something similar as well. Gringo
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$ showing strength it seems. Gringo
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I saw the short around 69 and was ready for it around 68. Mentally of course. Gringo.
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I am beginning to think highly of this Wyckoff guy. How did he figure this all out without much precedence? Must be a really observant person. Price still very weak. Unless upward strength shows up. Gringo
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DL cracked. Lets see if it's a REV or RET. Gringo
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Hinge forming just below 67? Price is showing some strength as it's not going downwards but the earlier drop was strong. That's what's having me a bit worried about demand being solid.
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Longer term chart is confusing me. There are so many lines that I am not sure what is important. 15 min is clearer. I have the S/R but in RT will have to rely on judgement to see which one is important. 2779 2776 2772 2767 2760 2750 Gringo
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Hello MMS, Just wanted to check how the implementation of the chat room is coming along. I await with suppressed excitement for the final product. Perhaps at last our desire to chat more often with our TL comrades in real time will be fulfilled. Gringo
