Gringo

Tupapa, Yes and no. Just because there's potential support or demand line there doesn't mean I am going to SAR. Support has to prove itself by doing something to price, otherwise it's just a line drawn on a chart. And remember, demand lines don't provide support, they only show the shift in supply and demand. If demand does show up then yes, first I'll exit and then see if it is worth taking a long as the trend is still down and we've none of the following: SL break, LSL break, LSH break, HL, HH or anything to show there's conviction in demand. Just because we're at a line drawn by me doesn't make it a support. Most traders probably consider this a time to take profits and at times market will prove them right and give them more money to keep because they exited, but I on the other hand wait for some signal to even force me to exit. Remember I am not playing for a few points here and there. I am trying to catch a trend. Here close to potential support there is a higher probability of price rebounding upwards but I can't just anticipate the rebound and run for cover. I wait until the first bullet is fired by demand before I start ducking. Long entry will be assessed after the short is covered. This may be a bit different from most technical analysis schools out there (or maybe not) but my understanding is that without some evidence to the contrary I stay in my position. It may be a misinterpretation on my part of what Wyckoff meant, but I think not. I am willing to expect a worse price for exit and reduction in profits for the probabilistic event that price continues with the trend. Keep in mind I am only trying to talk about the interplay of supply and demand in my posts and give multiple entry and exit options as I don't know the risk profiles and preferences to stomach price gyrations of other people. It's to show there are multiple ways to skinning a cat, but it's still the same cat. Focus on the cat (price) rather than the skinning part of it to ensure once you have skinned it, you don't end up instead with a skinned goat. Gringo

Tupap, Your only objective is to learn to trade and then make money. A trading vehicle is simply that, a trading vehicle, and is based on your choice, meaning you choose what gives you the greatest advantage in getting to your goals. Also, note that you don't have to trade with a small bar interval simply because most in the Wyckoff forum do that. This is also only a choice and once you understand the principles of price behaviour, supply/demand, support/resistance, and trend, then choosing the bar interval becomes secondary. Yes, you would choose something that would help you to maximize profits while also keeping you sane and balanced. Too many gaps bring a bit of unnecessary chaos in my opinion at least in the shorter bar intervals. Changing one's behaviour doesn't necessarily involve a corresponding change in a personal trait. Changing the environment can also lead one into a position where the unwanted behaviour doesn't have place to manifest. You don't have to suffer a bad trading vehicle and changing it might be akin to changing your environment. The trading plan also requires I believe to properly select something that helps us stick to our plans, the plans that are suitable for that environment. I hope I am not intruding too much with my constant implorations. I see your potential and how close you are to your goals and would hate to see all your good work go to waste. Gringo p.s. Db, the past few posts may be more suitable for the Journal thread. Please feel free to move them.

Price is close to S at 65. First sign of some conviction in demand or slowdown in supply is the break of the SL. A price rise to 66.25 tp a minor LSH, more visible on the 2h chart, could also be in the cards. Last but not least, a natural reaction could take price back all the way to LSL around 66.5. The less price is able to go up before supply takes over, the more value we give to continued weakness and vice versa. There's also the possibility of price dropping below S at 65. Our job is to stay prepared and when and if the event occurs just focus on the price, supply/demand, support/resistance, and trend for our decision making. Keep in mind the trend is down for now even though price is around support. Gringo

Niko, After the climax the test itself is the RET. Reversing your line: At the test after the climax. Gringo

Tupapa, You are in the learning phase so your objective is to learn the principles and use whatever means and vehicles that help you learn these principles. I see a bit of jumpy behaviour in the bund, which in effect may make it difficult for you to become comfortable with the correct principles. The more you're stopped out because of erratic behaviour of the trading vehicle you are using the more likely it is that you'll develop habits that may be detrimental to your growth. Again, I would encourage your to explore other options, or consult other opinions. There is no deadline to becoming proficient and perhaps simply questioning the not so obvious that's right under your nose may prove to be fruitful and possibly faster. Gringo

Db, Somewhere in the forum you had written, could be a few years old, that there are three kinds of risk: information, price, and opportunity. Where's this opportunity risk coming from? Does it mean we could have traded something else altogether (like another stock/index/future) instead of the current set-up? Gringo

Tupapa, What other trading vehicle options do you have other than the bund? Gringo

One thing that I had not noticed before is the gapping nature of this index that has regular trading hours. Futures trade continuously more or less so there are not many gaps associated with them so one can easily enter and exit as desired. The futures market is showing the price to be lower today after overnight trading so there might be a gap down at the open on this chart. Those who could have easily re-entered in the futures market their short positions at the onset of weakness may not find a suitable opportunity to do so here. In a way those who held their shorts will probably be rewarded and those who were nimble and exited their positions when price showed some strength may be penalized for not holding on. These are the behaviours and aspects that testing one's plan reveals. I guess my posting regularly on daily charts has alerted me to this characteristic which although was somewhere at the back of my mind but has now been forced to the fore. Keep in mind that this is an increase in price risk (I think) as the reverse could have easily taken place with a gap up. The holders would have been penalized while the nimble rewarded for their nimbleness in that case. Note again that I am not predicting the future, but rather using the available information to position myself for a possibility of a favourable outcome. Gringo

In intra-day trading PDL, PDH, etc., seem to affect traders and as a result price so they are included in the preparation phase. Only when and if price starts to stall or behave as if there was some S/R at these levels do we give them importance, but they are there just in case. There are multiple ways to make money in the market and quite a few don't involve S/R levels. Fundamental analysis is an example that is used for value based or growth based investing quite profitably. Arbitrage also doesn't involve S/R levels and neither does scalping. Wyckoff advocated trading at the extremes though.At the extremes you have the greatest information risk but least price risk. Using S/R levels help one stay alert to possible changes in supply/demand dynamic. Wyckoff sought to minimize risk by focusing on the best trades available rather than by chasing after every marginally acceptable trade, and those trades are found at those points where there is most likely to be maximum disruption, maximum confusion, maximum fear, i.e., the extremes of TRs and the climactic endgames of trends. Granted it takes patience to resist squandering one's resources on crap trades, but that's the price of being a grown-up. It depends on the kind of set-up you are testing. For a BO from a TR you'll need S/R level for context but not for executing the entry as it will be based on the top and bottom of the TR itself. Same with a BO from a hinge etc. For reversals and BO from S/R level you'll of course need the S/R levels. The importance of S/R levels in RT trading cannot be over stated as they give you context of how far one is from potential areas where price behaviour might change. Somewhere I posted that in order for a breakout to be a breakout it has to break out of something. A bar that's just higher than the previous bar ain't a breakout. And the harder it is for price to break out of something, the more likely the result will be satisfactory. The main problem with breakouts is that everybody sees the setup, and is waiting for it, and many are waiting to fade it and screw those who are playing it. That's why the RET after the BO is the acid test. Was it for real or not? Are buyers really willing to put out or are they just crapping around? If they're serious, the RET will take off. If they're not, you've got a failed BO. Which is why W preferred taking the RETs. Even TR have BO and RET but to identify a smaller bar interval or tick is a lot more helpful for intra-day trading. TR BO are a bit trickier at the start but not impossible to handle. In due course you can add more setups as you gain familiarity and understanding. More or less yes. Now if you are in an area where price has not been before or hasn't come there in years then you'll need to use price behaviour itself to determine where possible S/R may develop in RT. This takes skill and something you're honing in this forum. 1,2, seem ok for the BO and RET setup your post is focused on. 3.For stops losses you might want to include in addition to risk tolerance the price behaviour itself for an exit. This could involve price stalling after a RET and waiting instead of moving in the intended direction. This would help you exit before your stop loss is hit reducing your risk and losses. You may be faced with the question of missing the price run if discretionary exits are taken but your testing will determine what is acceptable and palatable for you. 4. Yes Take care not to confuse "trend" with "trading range". They're not the same thing. S/R applies most directly to TRs. Trends don't have the same type of S/R; they often end climactically, though sometimes they just run out of steam. Whatever S&R they may run into along the way may have to do with previous TRs that are outside themselves. But the movement within a TR from one end to the other isn't really a trend; it's a roundtrip ticket from one end to the other. Only when price breaks out of one side or the other, for real, do you have the beginnings of a real trend. For example, last Friday I said that the NQ was likely to hit 2660. We've been in a downtrend since the end of September, and even though there've been little TRs here and there, we haven't been in a major one since the 7th. So the movement from there has been a trend, not a trading range, and price stopped not because of a trading range that surrounded it, but from the top of a trading range from last July. At that time, price found R at 56, 58, 58, and 58. Yesterday it found S at 57. I'll take it. Please note, I am not an expert and am only giving my opinion hoping some of which you may find helpful. Gringo Good job, Gringo. Impressive. Db

Price is close to potential support around 65 and an interesting day lies ahead. It may take most of the readers only a few minutes to read these comments but to think things through and write all that in the chart is taking quite a bit of time and I am beginning to wonder what I have gotten myself into. Lets hope I can keep up with this a bit longer. Gringo It clearly has been paying off. Db

Hello pat15, There are times when the price drops out of a trading range and enters an area where there was no previous price activity in the preceding few days. In those cases finding S/R during the trading session becomes a juggling act. It's not to say that S/R levels that are a few days old are not important, it is just that having looked at a smaller sample set you may not have yet identified the importance of levels that are older but not in immediate play. Plotting your S/R levels in advance going back a few weeks makes it easier to just refer to them on a per need basis, while continuing to pay attention to the potential S/R that are in the vicinity. Gringo

"Make things as simple as possible but no simpler" - Albert Einstein It seems certain tasks can be categorized as being simpler than others. That being said simplicity in itself is a relative term and not an absolute. Without simplicity there would be no love, and without love there would be no complication. Without complication there would be no simplicity. Gringo

Today's levels are Lots of previous trading has caused quite a mess of levels here. One will need to stay alert to see how price is behaving to determine whether a level is in fact beginning to act as S/R. 55 46 41 37 34 29-30 23 15 08 Gringo

During the day it was evident that price was dropping. In these cases, it is advisable especially for those who don't have time to watch the price all the time to put a stop in so that they automatically enter. This of course should also be followed by a stop loss in case price goes against the position. So today we're assuming we don't know all that buy or sell stop mumbo jumbo and this automatic entry mechanism yet. We see at night that the poor index has started to fall as we had anticipated. So being lazy and not as quick as those who at least entered before the close we'll attempt to enter when the market opens tomorrow. Hopefully they'll be a small price rise for us to get a better entry. If price drops significantly before the open then we might have to let this go as the distance from a reasonable stop point would be a bit larger and risk/reward dynamic may not be favourable. We're not getting entering in the hopes of a getting an few percentage points. Here the bet is that the market may materially move lower. The stop would above the last swing high around 68.30 area or so and will be placed right after we initiate our short. For those who have time could have used the break of demand line on the 2 hour chart to get alerted to possible change in the direction price was moving and entered the position earlier as price continued lower. Gringo

Levels are the same. There are a lot of S/R levels above. Early in the day levels of importance: 56, 62, 64, 68, 74 Later in the day levels: 90 79 74 68 64 62 56 50 48 40 29 20 10 07 Gringo

Bloc, This is truly remarkable. Thank you. Gringo

Hello Timokrates, I believe, Db, uses the TICKQ for live trading. The "Trading in 90 minutes" thread is for the purpose of understanding the movement of the price itself. In real time trading having the tick allows earlier entry and exit opportunities than say a 1 min bar chart. As far as I understand Db, looks at the TICKQ exclusively and keeps an eye on the 1 min for perspective. In real time trading while chatting with other Wyckoff traders it has become quite obvious to me that the traders using the tick see things a bit faster and recognize price behaviour not so visible on the 1-min chart alone. This doesn't mean to imply you can't trade off of the 1 min chart. What it means is that there are some opportunities that might not be fully availed in the absence of the tick information. I am assuming you're talking about intra-day trading. For long bar intervals or say inter-day trading tick might not be useful at all. I am sure Db, will correct me if something is not right about my response in his stead. Gringo

Hello eminiman414, It seems you're focused on entering at multiple points as price is travelling upwards. Even if your only concern is to get used to the ebbs and flow of price, you won't do badly by paying attention to which way the immediate trend is. Notice the green demand lines in the chart. They are breached two times during the up move. In case you realized at A price was more likely to go up all you have to do is just keep track of the upward move. Notice how the price behaves around the demand line (green line) when the momentum slows down. Notice also the higher highs and higher lows during the up trend. Try not to see flags and other patterns in the price movement. Your focus would be better served in realizing what actually is happening to price itself. What you're calling a flag may not look like a flag in a different bar interval. Price is slowing moving downwards in a tight range where you mention the "flag pattern". This means there isn't a violent drop but rather a slow and deliberate breather of sorts indicating a possibility of profit taking. When price reaches the high of the last mini-consolidation area (last swing high) it ricochets upwards giving you the signal of strength. You got the same signal from recognizing the "flag pattern" but next time it may be a variation of the flag pattern or some other pattern. By turning your focus on how the price actually is behaving instead of some formation in the sand, you'll get a better understanding of what the meaning possibly is and will be able to act even if the pattern is incomplete or unclear. You could also have noticed, that although there was downward pressure from the supply, demand didn't cave in, leading to a slow downward drift. Once that supply ran out of steam the demand propelled upwards on account of supply getting exhausted or demand overpowering it. The reasons are not as important as the movement of price itself. The strong up move tells you demand means business. If you are just gauging the price behaviour and getting used to the its flow then don't yet worry about entries or exits and just observe. You are observing where price seems to be weakening and where it seems to be strengthening. You also attempt to notice where price gets stuck in a trading range and how it is behaving to wiggle its way out of that range and testing the strength of the demand or supply. I hope, what I have written isn't too overwhelming for you. I am not certain of your background or how much you've read so far in the Wyckoff forum. Focus on S/R, supply lines and demand lines, and trend in combination with where price is and there is a chance you might see the light. Wish you all the best. Gringo

Price has so far made a lower high (LH) and lower low (LL). 69.8 is the LH and 66.53 is the LL as marked on the chart. This has given me an indication that there is some weakness in the price behaviour. Now I am looking for price to turn downwards after the current rise that's in progress. This drop if it comes should result in the break of demand line (DL) in the 2 hour chart first but even the EOD should alert us to the downward move. The entry may be a bit later as compared to a smaller bar interval but we're not playing for pennies here. Gringo

Tupapa, The precise entry criteria is not the object but to show when the price dynamics have shifted towards a reasonable higher probability of a down move. For those who have time could use 2 hour or smaller interval for an entry. I am more interested in keeping the analysis mainly to EOD so as to make it easier for those with lesser time at hand to recognize that price behaviour works independently of the time preference or bar intervals used. Once the support/resistance, supply/demand, and trend are taken into consideration the rest is just not as difficult. QQQ is 1x Nasdaq 100. PSQ is 1x Inverse Nasdaq 100. QLD is 2x Nasdaq 100. QLD is 2x Inverse Nasdaq 100. TQQQ is 3x Nasdaq 100. SQQQ is 3x Inverse Nasdaq 100. The inverse ETF's go in the reverse direction of the orginal, meaning a 1% rise in Nasdaq 100 or QQQ should be a 1% drop in PSQ as an example. Once the logic of how price moves is understood the vehicle to take advantage of that movement is a personal choice. Most would be advised to base it on risk tolerance and money management criteria determined by their plan. End of day would be the main focus while the smaller bar intervals depend on my willingness and desire to do post it. I also want to make it clear that the the short may not be profitable. The idea is that you cut your losses quickly and over time the correct decisions lead to increases in profits as sooner or later the price will go in the intended direction. You're most welcome to add your analysis and thoughts as you deem fit. It's a collective effort. Gringo

QQQ is reaching an interesting price level. Price is around the resistance zone but we still have to see supply assert itself. In the absence of supply coming in there is no short. I am looking at it from the perspective of initiating a short sale only for now. Once the strength becomes evident I'll try to update possibilities for longs. 67.75 and 68.50 interesting levels closest to the current price level of 68.25 which is a bit more significant (but it's dependent on supply and demand dynamics). Focus on price behaviour will be the key. Criteria for making a decision: Price behaviour Support & Resistance levels Supply lines & Demand lines Notice the lack of indicators and also volume. QQQ 2 hour chart for greater clarity: Notice the mini DL which is holding still. Shorts will have to be put on hold as long as it is intact. Gringo Edit: The smaller chart is of 2 hour bars (120 mins). I didn't realize it.

Levels are the same. There are a lot of S/R levels above. Early in the day levels of importance: 56, 61.5 (hinge middle), 64, 70, 73 Later in the day levels: 90 78 73 64 62 57 50 48 40 29 20 10 07 Gringo

I don't get it. It's a defamation campaign. Db, are you turning into a democrat? Gringo

NQ has a TR from around 09 to 47. There are a lot of S/R mostly above. Below 09 area there's some space. Price has been playing with the 47/48 level today and could make a run to the upside. It's interesting to note that daily charts are also showing consolidation and a potential for upside before those willing to short longer term can deploy their short positions. For intra day the S/R are given below. Some are minor and some major. 78 70 62 50 48 40 29 20 10 07 Early in the trading the 40-48 might give a clue as to which way we're heading. Gringo

zdo, By Austrian I meant a user of 'Austrian Economics'. Rothbard, Mises, Hayek, Bastiat, Menger etc. Gringo