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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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Major indexes are approaching long term potential resistances or appear to be breaking above the potential resistances. Proximity to these important levels means it's wise to stay alert to any changes in upward momentum by focusing on price. So far we haven't seen a weakness develop in the major indexes. Below are some charts of the indexes which all have strong upward momentum. First the momentum will have to slow down and then are pronounced weakness in price before this long term trend could be declared to be over. The first condition hasn't even materialized yet let alone the second. It could very well be that the markets continue their merry way up from here. Staying alert is all we can do here. Keep an eye on individual stocks as well to see whether they show a propensity to move upwards. The only thing on concern is the duration of this bull market. It's been in effect since Mar 2009. It's been exactly four years and however the case may be these bull markets do come to an end eventually. The declines may not be sever but from a traders point of view could be sufficient. At least we are approaching an interesting juncture and it's time to learn how the price gives us subtle and not so subtle clues as to it's health. These are exciting times! INDU Daily INDU Weekly QQQ Daily QQQ Weekly QQQ Monthly S&P500 Daily S&P500 Weekly S&P500 Monthly Gringo
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I second Ingot. Haven't felt this kind of anxiety in some time. I am moving to the Himalayas...but I can't live without my internet. I am doomed, yes, but worse is the next generation that will simply get used to being recorded at all times. What is the Matrix? Gringo
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Yes, I feel it too...::rofl: Gringo
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Db, Is the change in your avatar a harbinger of change coming in the W forum? Gringo
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What does this mean? Gringo
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You have an audience Niko. The W family is quite a tightly knit unit. Good luck with following to the plan. Gringo
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Hello Muir, What you are saying is in essence a relative assessment of one instrument with another. I have looked at this in the past and it does give visually clear information regarding the relative strengths of the two compared instruments. The slight issue I have with this is precisely what makes it so valuable: 1) Relative strength is clearly observable. 2) Absolute value is not. If one is long and both instruments are dropping, the relative strength might still show the ratio between the instruments to be linearly correlated and going upwards, whereas, in reality both the instruments are losing value and hence money for someone who's long. Now this loss may be lower for the relatively stronger instrument but in absolute terms a loss is a loss. This does allow one to pick the stronger instrument and if the direction is right that instrument is more likely to out perform the weaker one. But beyond the clear identification of the relative strengths I fail to see (perhaps I am wrong) how this could help with timing or proper entry. This information could be gleaned from just looking at the percentage gains of the compared instruments during the past run and just identifying which ran more. This is not to say this isn't valuable for you and may not be helpful for others. My simple point is that there are other ways of identifying this same information but perhaps not so clearly, and this may very well be the reason you use them. Gringo
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Yes, it's possible. We'll only know in hindsight. The real issue is what, where, when and if are you going to do something about it. Gringo
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S/R can show up anywhere they want but to keep things in perspective we limit our entries to setups that form closer to pre-established potential S/R. When price behaviour shows that there is some interest by supply and demand in that area we could choose to enter. The smaller ranges or mini consolidation areas have or don't have importance based on your bar interval. If you are looking at daily bars than smaller consolidations such of a few minutes are not going to have much importance for your as your time horizon and intervals are larger. However, if these same consolidations appear very close to the potential S/R then you could time your entries based on price exiting these in the intended direction after your setup has been identified and all that's left is an entry. As Niko stated above, the more you observe the better you're bound to get. Keep your observation within the confines of S/R for faster results. Gringo
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Hi Niko, I came but a bit late. Shall try again. Otherwise keep up the good work. Gringo
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I was checking the pairs out indiscriminately. Any pair that had a reasonable spread of 6 or less has been game. EUR/USD surely is reasonable and perhaps more obedient when it comes to S/R respect. I'll probably go back to observing a bit more as I am beginning to get turned off from this. Remember I don't need to get better at Fx when I have reasonable understanding of stocks and futures. Futures I can't trade because of timings and other issues so stocks, ETF's and options on these instruments are the real possibilities. But your suggestion is reasonable to narrow the focus down to a few major currency pairs and then waiting for proper setups. Thank you. Gringo
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I am enticed by this NOC short. The danger is there so beware of a reversal here so close to S/R. Stop could be placed around 67 for EOD traders. Those with more time could exit earlier or as soon as price shows lack of downward progress and refuses to stay below 65 and returns back into the hinge. Gringo
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Here's a quick analysis of silver (AGQ). The overall condition doesn't seem very positive and that is quite strange. I was expecting a somewhat positive disposition but looking at longer term it's more like weakness overall. There is evidence (fanning) of a slowdown in downward price movement coupled with price not going below the 36-43 range. Other than that it's a tough call. This doesn't mean price can't go up, but it does mean it's harder to declare this move as a great opportunity to go long after a test. The larger interval price behaviour is negative to neutral, or could be in the early stages of turning to positive, but the clarity of strength is not there so far in my opinion. I was looking forward to a long in AGQ after a test but now have changed my mind. Weekly: Daily: Gringo
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It's a possibility. The test will determine what needs to be done. Also, note that just because I am doing the analysis doesn't mean I am also trading the instrument. I have my eyes on silver as well which had a stronger upside move today. No. The break of SL doesn't confirm the preceding price action was a climax. Price goes up many times during a downtrend but that doesn't mean the previous low was a climax. Knowing whether it was a climax is something we realize in hindsight. As an example if the test is successful and price moves up after the test then we would start to think that perhaps it was a climax. And what if price goes up a bit after the test and in a few days drops and makes a lower low? In that case we may consider it a part of the climactic activity but not the lowest point in terms of price. It's the lowest point, the turning point, we are after to time our entries. Yes. I would stay alert here. If price fails after test we're so close to danger point that we could exit quickly. This minimizes risk. At times price needs to consolidate after such a steep drop before going up. It's not a guarantee that the rise is imminent. Gringo p.s. Fx is giving me headaches. I am not sure why whatever I am used to doing isn't working. The respect for S/R is a bit lower and the price gyrations a bit extreme. Maybe a bit more time to get acclimated to currencies might help. Db's warning is at the back of my mind. Edit: For futures and stocks there was a procedure I followed, starting from just observing the price and then taking it one step at a time to Analysis -> Setup -> Entry/Exit. I haven't gone through that process for Fx and perhaps it's the reason I feel like floating in sea without any reference to the land.
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Hello ntrader, I have done some technical analysis in the Wyckoff forum for Northrop Grumman Corporation. From your analysis it seems you have more of a fundamental bent to your analysis and my analysis may not hold much value. If that is the case please disregard my post and forgive the unnecessary interruption. Here's the link: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15399-auction-market-theory-wyckoff-way-discussion-32.html#post174852 Gringo
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I'll post my understanding of the price based analysis (technical analysis). I am not of the opinion that having price targets for profit taking works very well. The only things I keep in mind are the support/resistance levels, supply/demand lines, trend, and volume. Monthly: The long term trend as determined by looking at the monthly chart is up. The red trend line is pointing up. Now this trend has survived a few bear markets in between. Keeping that in mind for trading purposes it's not the most helpful other than for identifying that a long at the lower ends of the red trend line around proper support/resistance levels has a higher probability of success. Notice the speed of drop and the duration when the prices tumble. Monthly Chart: Weekly: The weekly chart shows the most recent trend and the breakout above the 65 area. Price was unable to continue higher and had a lower high, meaning demand was not sufficient to continue to upward trend. There's also a formation of a hinge (triangle) right above the support/resistance level. Notice also the red trend line that's still intact meaning the upward trend is still intact at least on a weekly basis. Weekly Chart: Daily: We go closer still into the dailies to see what's happening at the daily level. Price appears to be weaker as it wasn't able to make a higher high after its trip to 70.5. Price only managed to come back to around 69. Nonetheless, price is holding above the 65 long term trend support/resistance level and at the same time forming a hinge. What this means is that the demand and supply are eyeing each other and one side may choose to push price either above or below the hinge. By that what I mean is a decisive breakout above or below the hinge level and after some retracement continuing it's course. One does need to know how a typical hinge behaves to take advantage of an opportunity like this. Daily Chart: What to do as a trader: A breakout to the downside will probably break the red trend line on the weekly and also make this stock a likely candidate for further downward movement. A break to the upside although positive may still have limited potential due to the overbought area being in proximity. Reasonable area to stay extra vigilant would be the upper trend channels of the weekly or monthly charts. This stock does move quite in tandem with the overall market and any strength or weakness in the market will have a high probability of affecting its movement directly. Gringo
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Awsome work Tupapa! Your hard work is beginning to show. I feel so happy. :cheers: Gringo
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I believe Db is referring to the large hinge into which oil price dropped back into. The presence of hinge means oil is not trending. In shorter bar intervals there might be a trend but stil within the hinge which due to its very existence is non trending. Gringo
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I have already finished the analysis for QQQ and S&P500. Contemplating whether I should wait for Tupapa to post his analysis first or just take the lead. Maybe I'll go play some ping pong to clear my head and then decide. Gringo
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These don't look like numbers to me. More like temperature readings perhaps. Ingot and TTony have ruined it for the mortals. Gringo
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Tupapa, Why don't you do your S&P analysis and post it here. This way you'll get some direct input. I'll try to get to it as well and then we'll be able to compare notes. Gringo
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Db, I got scared when all those acronyms were mentioned by Oleg. I better start reading the W course as well, I have a feeling it's going to get ugly fast Gringo
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Hello Oleg, That's a lot of reading you've done my friend. At least one thing is certain and it's that you don't easily give up. With all you have studied and the questions you are asking I am quite hopeful that you'll eventually make it. I wish you all the best and feel free to pick Db's brain with all the questions you have. He hasn't hand someone in some time who pushed him to his limits. Take care, Gringo
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Yes, there hasn't been an explosive rally yet. Price hasn't shown a kind of explosiveness to the upside. This in my opinion makes the assumption of technically rally a bit premature. Now, this doesn't mean price couldn't muster a rally from here straight up or even a technically rally that would get exhausted at some time, but based on the evidence classifying current price behaviour as a technical rally may not accurate. We may still be in a downtrend continuation mode and we don't have to classify price rise as a technical rally anyways. It's only in hindsight, after the successful test, we'll be able to classify the previous price rise as a technical rally. Gringo
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Hi tupapa, I would add this here just as a reminder that I am not looking for a HL after the SL break. Even a LL is fine as long as the demand shows up and blasts the price up clearly indicating that the push below the previous low was a feeble attempt by the supply side. Db, had recently reminded this to me somewhere. And yes, a HL would be a clearer sign of the changing supply/demand dynamic. Gringo Edit: Another thing we seem to have overlooked is the possibility of a break below the S. Then the regular RET and short might come into play. I am bringing this in for discussion because S&P has also reached a long term pot. R and if there's a rejection that's serious enough then gold might tumble down with it. Fundamentalists, would call it the weakness in economy leading to less demand for commodities. In 2008 the margin calls forced gold liquidation as was claimed. There are many reasons but there's one price. Follow the price and enjoy the rice.
