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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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:doh:. What a way to summarize. Gringo
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I would like to add that in advance we don't know whether a mean in real time is going to offer any opportunities or not. It's the same with S/R. We don't pay attention to their existence unless prices shows that traders are willing to exert some pressure around those levels. I would avoid too much of a congestion just to avoid all the confusion, but if one is willing then real time (SLA) might be more helpful than the fear of a mean lurking around somewhere. Gringo
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3600 seems important. Failure here could drop price.
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Niko, You'll be fine as long as you don't use 'red' for your comments. Red means Db now! Your mind will adapt. I haven't found anything worthwhile to trade in quite a few days and I am not interested in marginal trades much. So enjoy and keep in mind, May is here. Gringo
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This looks like a piece of cake Gringo
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Scratch, scratch, and scratch.
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The above looks eerily similar to what's in the SLA-AMT file. 1) Use AMT to identify an extreme. 2) Wait for price to reach it. 2) Start using SLA when that extreme is reached. Can it get simpler than this? Gringo
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Whyckoff = Wyckoff? Gringo
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I suggest you use this analysis from 1930 done by Wyckoff and cover the right side of the chart. Move bar by bar and read the analysis. This will be more helpful to you in my opinion. Once you understand it then try to see how someone else is analyzing the market. Keep in mind when someone else does the analysis in real time the unfolding on it may take many days. The point is not to predict what's going to happen but rather to decipher where the balance of supply and demand resides. I hope my response answers your question. I may have misinterpreted what you had wanted. Gringo
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I am not sure what you're talking about. Here we do our own analysis. When someone gives you a report it's current but what difference does it make for someone who's learning? A few years or a hundred years old report is all the same. The idea is to get the proper way of thinking in order. There are tonnes of charts with explanations if you use the search function. Whatever tickles your fancy type it in and start reading. Eventually, you'll have to do the analysis on your own. If you post something you've analyzed perhaps someone would comment on it. The Wyckoff material and course used here is the original course which is devoid of the exotic terms later added by the SMI. It is not to say SMI's interpretation of Wyckoff may not be profitable, but in this forum we're not interested in the interpretations of Wyckoff but stick with the original. I wish you well. Gringo
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Hi Mike, I don't know what you've been reading but this was right at the top of the forum: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/3877-introduction.html. As far as trading W live is concerned, how else would one trade if not live? Try reading the Trading in Foresight thread; Trading in 90 mins thread, If you can draw a straight line thread. A great majority of comments are about live trades that were pre-planned in the Trading in Foresight, and then later commented on in the Journal or other threads. You'll have to dig a bit but it's all there. Get the gist of how decisions are made and then see for yourself if this is something for you. Not everyone wants to trade without indicators no matter how much they might think they do. Gringo
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I think a bit of clarification is required here. One doesn't need to look continuously at the flow of price to be able to trade, especially those who use 5 mins or longer bar intervals. The idea is not to continuously look at price but rather to understand price as being continuous. When a daily bar is looked at even once a day, even there the previous daily bars show the flow of price in continuity despite it being not continuously looked at. The suggestions here are not to have eyes glued to the screen without blinking but to 'see' the continuity of price independently of the time interval between bars. As a example (a cool example, because I just came up with it and it seems awesome!): If a snake were crawling left to right and we chopped it in equal pieces and then separated with some constant gap, you would see the snake as if it were bars of some width with equidistant gaps. To decipher the shape of that snake and it's motion (previous motion or state) you would have to imagine the gaps to have been removed and the snake again a whole. (Oh, I tell you this might go down in history as being the example of the century ). The ultimate truth lies in receiving the continuous as discontinuous but perceiving it yet again as continuous. Gringo
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Keep in mind W had written that one should paper trade for a time until the trades start showing consistent paper profits and not go live before that consistency is achieved. So there is this element of screen time involved which may be different for different individuals. The studying and planning the campaign part comes after you've mastered the material. If you want to get better at this kind of trading then you must put in the screen time. If you are unable to resolve the theory into practice then know that you're not the only one. It does take quite a bit of time to get that clarity and then it becomes easier. Just because you've bothered to read W doesn't guarantee success no matter how much you find it to be unfair. You'll need tonnes of exposure and you'll need a trading 'plan'. For that plan to become a reality you'll need to know what you're looking at and what you're comfortable with. Over the years I have seen many a comrades who couldn't make consistent money. Some I would argue even had a better grasp of theory than I had but when it came to making decisions when money was on the line something didn't click. After the fact they could all explain the reasons and how and why things didn't work out but in real time success was illusive. You may be able to find older posts from many of these friends. So the bottom line is how quickly do you want the results? Screen time is the only thing that will clarify it all for you. The theory isn't that complex, especially if you just read the summaries Db has provided and believe me even that summary is sufficient with some doses of the real course. To get the results you need to go through seeing price move and to build that understanding for its flow. Perhaps Db would be able to answer better as I am beginning to sound bitter even to myself. I do wish you to succeed but doing all the work doesn't entitle one to success in this business. Trading is one of the hardest things ever in life simply because the enemy isn't out there. Gringo
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fxpaulm, What you are saying is true. Wyckoff could make a decision probably by devoting an hour of his day to looking at the charts and prices. What's not evident from this is the time he spent honing that skill of reading and understanding the flow of price. Those years he spent day trading stocks and seeing price move day in and day out brought him to that level. Theory is good and gives you an idea regarding what to pay attention to. The real deal is then to sit and watch prices in real time or at least even in replay to get the idea how to make abdecision when price is moving left to right and the right side isn't all visible. After the fact charts almost always seem obvious. Once and if you get that clarity then trading would start getting a bit easier. You can look at the bars and still understand the continuity of price. It's just that while learning this skill it's tougher not to see bars as individual stand alone instances. As an example if you were trading as an end of day trader you would probably look at prices once or twice a day and then make a decision based on that. The preceding bars or lines would show you how the price had been behaving and where the pressures of demand and supply was shifting. Please keep up with your observations and hopefully the light bulb would go off one day. Having the theory in mind will hopefully bring it all together faster when the moment of clarity does arrive. All the best. Gringo
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Today friends, lets have a look at GLD. There are speculations as to where the bottom for gold is. It is quite entertaining to listen to all the arguments and counter arguments for and against gold's bright future. Here though we go back to the basics. Just price, volume, supply/demand lines, and trend. In a nutshell gold is still in a downtrend. Until that situation changes or it can show sustainable power to go above 130, I remain bearish. I do notice higher volume drops but price is weak and so far it hasn't shown much sign of strength. In the absence of this strength we assume weakness until of course strength manifests itself. Most comments are in the attached charts and look at the weekly and daily charts. The recent drop from around 175 is over 35%. It is quite a significant drop so sooner or later a rally is going to ensue. But so far there's silence. Gringo
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The weekly Q's haven't shown a sign of weakness so far. The trend is upwards, the demand line is intact, and the price is rising up after a retracement to 70. I consider these signs of strength and if a long is not desired at least reason enough not to go short at the moment. Zooming in to daily price behaviour we see that the strength is there but there are certain aspects that show emergence of weakness as well. Notice the shorter term down trend. Now this could be temporary but something to be watchful off. Also notice the failure of price to continue upwards at 73.5 and a precipitous drop afterwards. The price did stabilize after that drop and has been rising. It's reached the top of the downward daily TL. Lets see how price behaves here. It's behaviour here will give us another clue as to the demand and supply dynamics of this rally. We cannot predict what price will do but we can deduce that the longer term trends are intact and short term trend showed a bit of weakness. A re-emergence of strength in price here would negate the weakness. So far as stated earlier I would avoid shorts until the demand line from 60.64 is intact. 70 seems to have gained in importance. Keeping an eye on price behaviour around it won't be a bad idea. Gringo
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Hello, Using the 'whatever' part of this thread I would like to post the below. Just an overview of where things are. The Q's seem to be chugging along their merry way without a hitch so far. Didn't look like it a few months back though. The signals were muddy and price unconvincing. This goes on to show that there comes a time where the resilience of a speculator is tested and market does what it can to confuse, dissuade, bore and distract. The DL break closer to R at 70 hinted at the possibility of some change or a weakness of sorts. The resumption however and a new high above the swing high of 70 negated the DL break and gave a signal that perhaps the rockets were still firing. Until another DL break or price abruptly collapsing back below 70 up is the way. Learning to draw a straight line is the hardest part. But 'if you can draw a straight line', the world is your oyster! Gringo
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Forex for learning to trade? My personal opinion is that it's quite a difficult task to apply Wyckoff principles to forex. There are those who have done it successfully but they are the exceptions. Trading is tough to start with and then choosing an instrument that doesn't even behave with much consistency make the task doubly difficult. I wish you all the best. Gringo
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Here's something to look forward to. AAPL has been mentioned by quite a few on this thread. V was also mentioned a month or more ago. In any case have a look. Keep an eye on the Nasdaq as a weakness in general market conditions is hard to oppose by any individual stock. One stock is possibly attempting to reverse a downward trend while the other is continuing with it. Which one would you choose to go long if the signal arrives? Why? Gringo
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I am feeling a bit of fear creeping up my spine. The thought had been lurking somewhere at the back of my mind. There is no hiding from ravages of time. Gringo
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Yes, we miss you too Niko. Db has nothing new to add except for the same 100 year old demand/supply, price, volume, and trend gibberish. . Gringo
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There isn't a one line answer to this. You'll have to read some of the course and hone your ability to read price behaviour. The stop isn't hit because in the absence of price behaviour supporting your position you would want to exit on your own instead of waiting for the stop to be hit. The stop is there in case you lose internet connection, power etc or are not able to watch price move. It's to prevent you from losing big due to some uncontrollable event. If the price move is sudden and doesn't give you a time to decipher that the move isn't panning out in your intended direction then the stop is taken out by the price. This automatic stop exit is a fail safe mechanism but the ideal is for you to decide based on your understanding of price movement when to close your position. Gringo
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Tupapa, Could be. Which way is the trend? Which is the higher probability trade: long or short? What's the condition of the DL? Any S&R close at hand? Any chance we could be in a TR? Are you planning to anticipate a trend change or wait for price to show the trend has changed? Your previous posts have shown you are capable of deciphering the clues. So give us your take. Gringo
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Hi ramack, My Fx experiment isn't producing positive results. The lack of respect for S&R and tricky trending with large swings makes it a bit difficult to control risk. It could be my own personality unable to handle the wilder gyrations though. Perhaps it is better to stick with what I am comfortable with. I might keep an eye on the foreign exchange market but it's increasing looking as if I'll go back to the bread and butter of stocks and ETFs. Gringo
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If you must. Consolidation time it is. Perhaps we shall wait for a break out from the consolidations in the W forum. Gringo
