Gringo

JPM above 26.5 is exit for me. Even 26 is quite unacceptable. I may exit half at 26.10 to keep my head straight. Today the price didn't go above opening high and the day high was lower than previous day's high. Still the close was higher and volume was really low. Supply is holding back it seems. FED meeting tomorrow is a dangerous day. Historically I have almost always gotten whacked atleast day trading on this day and generally am not eager to trade. Still it used to be plan-less trading and although I had a pretty reasonable plan I am finding out it wasn't precise enough. Next time I'll have to have detailed points and exactly how I would behave when that price level is reached. If price doesn't fall even after the FED meeting say in a day or two then I may consider scaling out of position anyways as this is about time JPM fell on account of to it reaching the larger resistance zone. Too much delay could mean danger and I am not ready to gamble. Another reason of weaker entry is perhaps the unavailability of chat room. Usually I am in sych with the general trend but the loss of secondary (could be primary!) confirmation suddenly left me on my own and the plan to initiate short when future traders in room were planning to initiate short positions couldn't materialize. It's only now I am becoming aware of my dependence on chat buddies. This writing down business leaves no place to hide!

I am finding EOD to be quite painful. Due to my seeing 1min charts most of the time i can tell when market's in an uptrend or downtrend and it becomes difficult to continue to stay in a position when short term trend is going against my position. Still I have controlled myself and my exit based on daily analysis and stop not being hit. Probably better entry or more fine tuning is required it seems. Or perhaps I may have to set up my stops and not continuously observe the market. New questions are popping up fast.

24.5 is price for short. In hindsight 25.10 area after 1min last swing low was broken was a better choice. 24-25 area or higher was the range for me to inituate shorts based on condition that market weakned. Priced reached the midpiont of box around 25.75 and it wasn't a bad place to initate a position but at that time the stock was running up and I didn't have the courage with market above key S/R levels (ie. Nasdaq above 1500 & SP500 above 850) to iniate anything on short side. I guess it takes practice to see weakenss in real time. It's only when market couldn't continue upwards close to the end of the day that I had confidence that short is viable. BAC and C both reversed 8-10% and became -ve. Strangely BAC and C were the weakest stocks in the group but I was scared to short them as they didn't even move up when all else moved last week and being close to their Support made them less desirable to me. And these two gapped up big at the open. One mistake I did make was that I didn't pay attention to the % moves. I am used to stocks around 100 value and 25 dollar stock every 1 dollar is 4%! Mentally I didn't consider 24 or 25 to be too far off but % wise they are quite off. Another strange thing that happend was that after doing all the analysis I wanted to do something or get some kind of reward after putting all the work in and once I realized my eagerness to do something I went for a break and possibly missed better entry areas. That advise from the Zen and Poker book about not feeling you deserve something ust because you've been behaving and following rules was experienced by me in real time. I guess that's how one learns.

It's around 2 mins before close and JPM looks like it has weakned based on the close not getting too high and price again coming down and stalling after 25 area. Seems like a resonable opportunity to short as market rejected major resistance and XLF also couldn't get out of the most recent box and reversed after all the gains today.

Hi Db, Your sector analysis and the article from Wyckoff inspired me to chose one of the weakest sector for shorting purposes and some analysis of JPM is below. Please note GS and JPM are both behaving quite similarly. XLF monthly clearly is in a downtrend but does seem to test montly low on lower volume. Note that the month hasn't come to an end yet. The final box represent lack of upside strength but break above the box may imply some caution/halt on the short side. Break below the box may be a bonanza for shorts. Note also the inability of XLF Daily to rebound after this recent decline indicating a serious lack of demand. Most JPM analysis is done on the chart itself for easier view.

I found this post on "Comparing Strength and Weakness: Group Charts" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month January, 2009"

Hi, HPQ has moved up % wise quite a bit more than AAPL from recent bottoms after selloff and hence is showing more relative strength. DELL is sitting on support and is relatively weaker and the weakest of the three. I am not comfortable opening a position on a break out yet and prefer reversal at S/R and therefore am not comfortable shorting DELL which seems to be sitting at some support. Either a test or retracement after BO is the only scenario for me so far. Perhaps in time I'll develop the skill to get BO entries. This leaves AAPL to be play with (note: It could be my own bias somehow finding reasons to just stick with AAPL and disregarding other important information). Nasdaq and indexes are moving in such a congested areas right now that perhaps it is wiser to observe at the moment which direction the market pick. The volume on AAPL consolidation has been steadily decreasing which may mean either accumulation or distribution in this area and perhaps buyers and sellers approaching closer to an agreement about price level. Lower highs and fact that more time has been spent at the bottom of range is somewhat indicative of distribution but it's not all clear. Had the market made a run up and started to exhaust buying pressure I would have felt more comfortable placing shorts but due to fact that indexes have recently come down might suggest some selling pressure has already been used up probability of up may be somewhat higher even though Nasdaq is under quite an R at 1500 but there hasn't been a follow through downwards either which may indicate reduction in selling pressure. I am still observing and have become more cautious. Without Wyckoff's way of seeing supply and demand I would already have shorted AAPL around 90 and hoped for the best. Now I am atleast balancing the pros and cons while comfortably sitting outside and not terrified that I am missing the only chance in the world to short. Thanks to those who have held my hand and helped me re-learn to walk again. The baby steps are coming along and some bumps and missteps are to be expected. AAPL is having trouble at the Midpoint which is 90. EPS came out yeseterday so had a jump which on weekely looks like quite a rebound from test. And I was thinking EOD will require lesser thinking. Gringo

Hi, I am looking at AAPL for a possible short when/if Market (QQQQ) or Nasdaq hit R and bounce downwards. Weekly chart has clarified quite a lot of things about why the prices are bouncing here. Daily is somewhat confusing for me. I see lower highs and drew a demand line as well. I am taking lower highs to be a sign of weakness and am perceiving (guessing) price to not reach the R around 98 area. This to me is implying that 90 - 98 range as the place to initiate shorts and more specifically 95 to be the point to look for as a daily box has resistance around there. 90 is the midpoint from the weekly chart and could provide resistance as well. What is worrying for shorting is that there appears to be a potential climax (selling exhaustion perhaps) around 85 in Oct 08 and subsequent tests of that level have been on lower and lower volume. This may imply lack of selling pressure. It is possible that AAPL or market or both may just keep going up but my aim is to to develop an understanding for self-sufficiency. After writing all this down I am not even sure anymore if shorting is a good idea. Please add your insight as to how to approach this. Thank you. Gringo

I found this post on "Re: All You Need... is a Chart" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month January, 2009"

Nasdaq monthly looks like it failed to make higher high by a large margin. Speed of fall is also to be noted.

Hi, My humble attempt using the box. I am new at it so please forgive any and all mistakes.

Hi Db, If you see S/R on say daily bar interval do you zoom to smaller bar intervals to pin point exactly where the struggle took place for greater accuracy?

Hi Db, I wanted to check if my thinking is reasonable below: i) Those who believed on Dec 27th that it was a good test could put high of bar on Dec 27th as entry price using your above (pretty nice!) idea? (NOTE: Line in the above quote was bolded by me) ii) On 29th the buy point could be moved to the high of 29th which is lower than the high of 27th as probability of prices going lower is further reduced due to reduction in supply (since prices again couldn't go much lower)? iii) Those who are more risk averse could leave buy entry at the high of 27th and get more assurance of demand but have greater price risk? (Mamis?) Thank you.

Good luck. You may find it's not the end of the world to switch brokers. Keep your eyes open for a change if you find your demands require other services that must be given preference.

I have used Oanda in the past and liked it. Found out currency trading wasn't for me. I am back to stocks and options. Friend uses them and opened multiple currency account to have the ability to withdraw in different currency.

Hi DB, How can I buy your Price volume book?