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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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I found this post on "Re: How Do You Start Trading?" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month June, 2009"
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I found this post on "Re: How Do You Start Trading?" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month June, 2009"
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Hi, One word to describe all the above: Sex
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Db as always does such a nice analysis that it's difficult to come up with something novel. I am attempting here to show SPX montly to indicate longer term trends. 790 or below means probability of going lower increase. Above 790 (staying in box) implies could go to 1150 or upto 1500. Generally, the volume changes indicate higher probability for a move downwards in my humble humble opinion. This may help traders who use daily charts to align their stars and be aware of danger points.
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Brownsfan, There was a link in DB's post above and given here for your convenience CLICK.
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Below is a weekly and daily chart of AAPL. Due to this strengh in tech I am simply showing possible re-buying/buying opportunties after a pullback in market. Volume on up moves seems to be higher than volume on down moves. Because the price has been going up demand is greater so far. For shorting, try to look for a weaker group as techs are very strong so far and could cause indigestion if not handled with care. For AAPL the box is like this: upper limit: 190 mid point: 155 lower limit: 120 Percentage wise if these S/R behave then the risk/reward are quite hefty.
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Hello, XLF is showing below with 10, 11 and 13 areas as S/R. I am not guessing here which way price may go but am using common sense (now I call it common sense!) to show possible important S/R levels. Others before me have also identified these areas to be important so I claim no credit for originality or intelligence except for the colour scheme used on chart!
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Yes, I am actually waiting for upper (pink) line to be reached. If this trend up hadn't had a higher low in early March, I could have picked short yesterday when it was very close to my target line but due to underlying strenght I am not pushing my luck here. Targets are determined using daily but initiation of position is based on my looking at 1 min when weakness is determined due to TD + vol reduction on test and possibly supply lines hunching over etc in the range of the target determined on daily. So far, I am more comfortable shorting strength than letting the market move in my direction and pick me up on the way down. The logic is sound, however, but as everything else in life, a few bad hits are required before it's taken up.
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Yes, I'll be looking at 1min intra-day. Based on that I'll see if a consolidation weakens or strengthens and then basically treat the entry as an entry to make profit on 1min chart. In all likelyhood I'll be using 1min to determine if prices went against. Which boils down to taking a loss even earlier as going above 31.7 would to me imply underlying strength. 32 I used as a reasonable wiggle room in case I cannot watch constantly the market. Mid point of the box is the main price at which all the fighting is taking place and bulls have pushed prices up to upper extreme of box and bears to lower extreme before giving up. Basically by taking position at these extreme points I am betting that if it is exceeded then new strenght has come in and power dynamics are changing. Opposite extreme is the logical destination but profits are taken at midpoint to ensure that bulls don't push all the way back to BE. You are right. On weekly I did see prices make a higher low which indicated supply diminishing. Based on longer term it may not be too wise to attempt a short. Due to my liking for smaller time frame I am taking it initially as if it's only an intra-day trade. In case prices start following the intended direction I would hold and continue to hold. I would still be fine with just placing mechanical stops and letting it go at that to have a shot at it with limited risk rather than not taking a position which in my eyes has clear points for reference. 34 area is also another resonable point to look for as DB/TOG recently mentioned in CJ thread. Keep in mind I would be more comfortable if prices went above the high and came back and second time couldn't reach earlier high to short. Both cases here have same R so once I get 1% stop comes to BE and then it's just managing the trade. Overnight holding does have the risk of gaps which is somewhat of a sore spot. I know what you mean. I like intra-day more but forseeing future obligations and time commitments EOD is attractive. Besides it makes me feel more in control and less eager to trade when there's nothing to trade intra-day. I am liking the larger box better due to its clarity. Gringo
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SHORT position if initated based on QQQ = 31.63(subject to how traders are behaving S/R level may be a little off) Stop Loss: 32 (exit all positions and take loss of 1%) If price moves 1% in favour then stop loss moved to Break Even (BE) point. Profit target 1: 29.8 (1st half position closed) Profit target 2: 28 (2nd half position closed) Risk of 1% and reward of 3% (if only 1st target is reached and BE stop is hit on the 2nd half) Risk of 1% and reward of 9% (if both targets are reached) Re-entry a few times may be attempted because of the largess of the R but breakout upwards means get the hell out and fast. There's another bigger box from 25.6 - 31.6 and it can also be used to define entry exit points. I just wrote the number above from box determined some time back. The bigger box perhaps represents a clearer picture of price movement. Upper Limit = 31.6 Mid = 28.6 Lower Limit = 25.6 Gringo
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Hey, what voodoo is this...
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Could it be these professionals are losing money fast and to keep afloat they need new influx of funds? Hence, their only option to keep their jobs and funds from debacle is to continue to drum the nearness of the bottom. As Omar Khayyam said a thousand years ago about this Credit crunch: Some for the Glories of This World; and some Sigh for the Prophet's Paradise to come; Ah, take the Cash, and let the Credit go, Nor heed the rumble of a distant Drum!
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I've been ignoring you for a long time TOG.
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Hi, The below is how I see things: 1) Market continueing to hover around the support at 28 is somewhat showing weakness. Not enough demand to decisively move prices up. 2) Volume appears to have somewhat increased or equivalent in Feb as compared to mid Jan when prices came close to support (volume isn't helping much here IMHO). There is a need of drop in volume to give me stronger conviction in going long. 3) The fact that prices have dropped this past week may have caused some exhaustion (perhaps temporary) in supply so going long may be somewhat easier even if it's a technical rebound. But technical rebound doesn't really take that long so this rebound due to supply exhaustion may be wishful thinking. In case there is another trip to 27.7 - 28 range with significant drop in volume then the below could be applied. Possible Long: Buy point: 28 or a bit lower based on smaller bar interval and support that day. Stop loss: 27.68 (below today's low - low of day could be lower as post is intra-day) Take 1st half profit: 28.8 (grey line) Take 2nd half profit: 31.6 (pink line) Possible Short: Not before S is decisevely broken and re-tested.
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Hey Head2K, You were taking snapshots of important points early in the day. It's about time you posted them. I eagerly await. Thanks
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So intra-day tug of war between traders can create new S/R that may not necessarily match with previous or pre-maket S/R fom boxes. 1) Does this mean intraday price points may take precedence over other previous boxes including pre-market high/low points? 2) Does this also mean that boxes and their S/R are not oracles but mere guiding posts that float? Every time I think I have it figured out another layer of the onion is revealed.
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I wrote the above a few days back in this same thread while analyzing AAPL as a possible short candidate. Now I am amazed at how AAPL hit precisely 95 and reversed. I am also amazed at how JPM was also jumping between S/R lines that were drawn in advance from the boxes. Is this magic or coincidence? Or is this really how better traders end up making money while the rest of us dwell in mediocrity? There's a fountain of wealth within these Wyckoff Forum threads and I sure am glad to have found it.
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Hi, Below is QQQQ chart of 60 min bar interval for better correlation with traders here who use futures. Looking at this one keeps me informed about possible S/R and to keep an eye on reversal or continuation. Basically, boxes are drawn in tandem (more or less) with DB's NQ chart so that I can better follow what's being talked about in the chat room. 29.5 QQQQ = 1200 NQ (fat grey dotted line)
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Hi MRW, Feel free to post whatever and whenever you like. We're all here to get better. Heak2k is right it's our thread here and not personally mine.
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JPM: 27.18 is short. Stop loss 28 Take 1/3 profit 25.5 I am looking towards 20 as the possible ultimate target. I thought 27.5 area was resonable R. Anyway, the gods seem to like down tomorrow. My agent checked with Zeus.
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Beam me up Scotty! I am back...
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Again attmpt it? I thought the plan failed. What I don't understand is why I am feeling upset. I think I'll start looking again.
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By 'bypassed' I mean the fill wasn't good as the stock opened above the price I had set for stop where the stop order became market order. As the stock opened 27+ I got a fill very early but not exactly at my stop price but higher. I didn't use limit price as getting out was the main idea. As you mentioned in a earlier post I am going to probably attempt to use limit orders for initiating a position.
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Stop was bypassed as the stock gapped up at open above 27. This gapping business also needs some attention now.
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It's over. Morning blast (gap) up was enough to hit all kinds of stops. I am trying to figure out what I did wrong and could have done better. Maybe I could have waited for markets to run up and then shorted when it stalled rather than after a recent decline? Back to the drawing board.
