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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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There's something about screen time and pain of losing that makes a lesson stick .Yes, I not only noticed the hinge, but also noticed how price is not moving too smoothly within it (not filling it well). This reduced my confidence in the hinge but for an agressive soul this is another way of getting in earlier and profit. My bread and butter is still s/r but I do take note of hinges and stay alert especially if they occur close to s/r.
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There is Weekly and daily analysis of GLD. I have bothered to include UUP because there seems to those who believe GLD and US Dollar are inversely correlated. This may be the case, however, I believe it's better to trade what you see than what may or may not be correlated. Even if gold and USD are correlated in some way there isn't a guarantee they have a cause and effect relationship. Gold Weekly: Gold Daily USD Weekly In any case, what USD is showing is that it's between a box and has had quite a down trend. Once it breaks above TL then we'll think about upside move. For now we we focus on the s/r in front of us. GLD is in NH ground. It has no prior resitance above and has grater potential to run, but no guarantees it will run. Some will argue how can USD go up and gold go up as well when they are inversely correlated? It's possible if inflation is faster than the rise in US interest rates to curb that very inflation. Rates increases in other countries lag US rate increases causing USD to go up. But wait! Inflation is faster still, hence, investment money runs to the inflation hedge i.e., gold. Now gold's priced in USD hence causing people to buy USD to eventually buy gold leading to USD and gold prices to become positively correlated! Oh, and I haven't even talked about the news that OPEC + Russia, China etc, are in secret meetings to trade oil in their local curriencies instead of dollar and middle east working on creating a unified currency. What will this do to USD, to the economy, to inflation, to political instability, to alliances? What will that do to inflation and USD? What about healthcare? Will that affect defecits and USD? There are so many possibilities and each has merit in someone's eyes. I simply prefer others to lose sleep over what might occur while I use support and resistance to make my trading decisions.
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XLF has quite an erratic price movement which obscures the s/r. Looking at daily in conjuction with Vol by Price gives a clearer pricture of where bulk of trading tooK place and as a result which s/r are likely to be more significant. 30min chart is there to show the movements when we zoom in. There are smaller s/r as well for intra-day traders but not labled here.
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Hi MidKnight, Do you have access to other markets that are not so gap prone? A significant part of market movement seems to have already taken place at open and you're left to fend for the remaining scraps. A Ferrari is hardest to drive on a road with gaps in it.
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Hello dla133, To me it appears you don't want to be hopping in and out of market and want to have longer time objectives for your buying and selling. Wyckoff is quite time independent and his methods can be used for longer time frames. The problem is once you get used to his way of thinking I am not certain if you'll be able to look at the market the same way, especially buy and hold. I have tried IBD and CANSLIM and on paper it's not bad and possibly better than a lot of other investment philosophies out there. I have gone through Livermore, Darvas, Loeb, Graham, Schwagger, Murphy, Magee, Pring, Bulkowski, Nison, Lynch, Elder, Tharp, Richards (Turtles) and too many others to name. The end result after all this wandering in the desert by chance led to Wyckoff. Perhaps it was going through all the above that helped me recognize genius. The genius in simplicity and independence. I know this is my promised land. There is not an obsession with cup with handle, double bottom, head and shoulders, flat bases, high tight flags, saucer bases, or 3 week tight formations and the like. You'll more likely see the flow of prices as it is rather than judge things based on what formation is possibly in the making. Most formations look perfect only in hindsight as you may discover if you are lucky. It's not the sword but the master that matters as the saying goes. But having the right sword can still be helpful. For me Wckoff is that sword. Market on the other hand is the ultimate master, and this master will find your investing and psychological weakness and strike where it hurts the most and repeat the process until you change or go broke. If you are up to the task and willing to undertake these risk you'll find many who'll guide you here. In the end it's your journey and only you can chose to take that first step. If you are enamored with my experience and knowledge, take heed; for I am still a humble student trying to find my footing, and still struggling for consistent gains. Some questions for you to consider: 1) How much time are you willing to spend on learning and unlearning? 2) How much time are you willing to devote on daily or weekly analysis? 3) Do you really want to be dealing with markets or would you feel better off giving your money to a professional? 4) How long do you think it will take you to figure this all out?
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Q's are at trend line. If you notice the last two days have seen increased trading intensity as evidenced by higher volume. It appears supply did show up this time when price tried to climb up and pushed it down. Now this has happened in the past that after a day or two of sharp price declines further move downward halted and price shot up as soon as demand absorbed all this supply. Lets see what happens tomorrow. Some believe that TL offers support and resistance. DbPhoenix declares it's not the case. I am still confused whether TL or MA for that matter offer support and resistance or just happen to coincide with real s/r and give the appearance of a significant area. Daily chart of QQQ shows price stopping at TL. We did break below the green value area (rectangle) and are in no man's land on dailies. To see closely what lies within this no man's land I zoomed in. The 60 min chart shows that we are right under s/r. Here My s/r could be somewhat off as well but I used what appeared more significant to me. These lines were drawn some time back to give me a better perspective for shorter term trading. We don't know which way price will go. We only know here s/r are to buy or sell. I have begun to find daily or end of day trading to be quite cumbersome and slow on my psyche. Perhaps because I watch price in 1min or shorter interval every day and can see so many things happening within minutes and hours, while EOD takes eons to reach significant levels. Self discovery is one of the side effects of learning how to trade or perhaps it is the driving engine for success. Sun Tzu claimed we need to know ourselves and the enemy (read market) to have success. Knowing only one of the two halves the chances of success.
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I have noticed tests are done more and more frequently on shorter intervals than 1min. This is making it tougher to get in as those who are waiting for confirmation seem not to be getting it before price goes the other way. Either one's got to make a decision on the first touch of s/r or it's too late. It's here that TickQ and other volume based secondary support can give some advantage. The s/r is still working quite reliably but the setups that used to work aren't becoming available frequently (1min in my case). In a way it taxes one's patience to wait for that setup or to adapt and get a plan to deal with this touch and go price action which is prevalent now.
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Below is chart of AAPL. Notice how it's close to reaching it's higest point ever. 190 and 200 are last hurdles. Is there going to be breather atleast at these levels where those who held through all the turmoil of past year are itching to break even? Anything is possible but 200 is a psychological round number as well which could prove tough. I recall Jesse Livermore wrote in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator the importance of these round numbers like 100, 200 etc. In case price doesn't blast through them or goes only a few points ahead and starts reversing, generally, he considered getting cautious especially if market had had a bull run. Interesting Note: Run in Apr 07 - Oct 07 is almost like the run Mar 09 - Sep 09. Both % wise and time wise. No guarantees here but something to keep in mind. AAPL has been a tech leader in this up run and weakness in it may give some clues about health of the market.
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I have been hearing of quite a bit of skepticism about this market's upmove. Some expect the end of be near and others are claiming lack of fundamentals for this drive. Below is chart of QQQ with some notes. The main point I am making is that unless the uptrend defined by the trend line is broken decisively we remain in an uptrend. Worrying too much about future and past simply confuses the mind. It's the present that concerns us and it is in the present we make our profits and losses. Ah, fill the Cup! What boots it to repeat How time is slipping underneath our Feet. Unborn To-morrow, and dead yesterday Why fret about them if today be sweet? ---Khayyam Too much anticipation not only emotionally hurts us, but also makes it difficult to feel the waves by unnecessarily anchoring us down. S/R is 42.6 and 41.6 (green box at top). This s/r is equivalent to 1730 and 1690 on NQ.
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Has anyone read the book: The Way of the Warrior Trader? I think it was quite impressive. I read it a few years back but it was written quite differently.
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What is it that you specifically wish you ask?
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Hi, Q's have been going up for over 6 months now! I have posted normal/standard support/resistance boxes (value areas) but have also tried to measure strength in upthrusts. Please note the % change in upthrusts. I haven just chosen the closest whole numbers to keep calculations simpler. Note: It may look like Elliott Wave to some but keep in mind I haven't really read much about Elliott Analysis and similarities are coincidental. From what little I recall Elliott proposed last upmove to be greatest in magnitude (frenzy)? I am uncertain about it so forgive my misunderstanding. DbPheonix: In case this doesn't qualify as Wyckoff analysis then move it to perhaps Chat Junkies.
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Coming close to supply line hitting three points.
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Below QQQ daily is shown with some s/r, but I tried to put some channels to it. We seem to be in an up trend channel and touching the top of it. Volume has risen on this move up however there has been little price movement upwards after all's said and done. s/r are getting quite messy on dailies, atleast for me. RIMM from previous posts has crossed above 80 and negates the earlier short. It is a nice example of the futility of shorting a stock from the strongest group. The earlier posts identified XLE (Energy) as weakest group and quite a few of it's stocks haven't held up well. XLF 30 min bounced from s/r and it wasn't too hard to see it go up after it returned in the box from the bottom. It is reaching the upper s/r area close to 14.9. It hasn't followed other indexes into new highs yet.
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I was forced to zoom into XLF to see what's going on in there. Below is 30min bar chart. upper s/r: 14.85 mid s/r: 14.63 lower s/r: 14.4 There's a clear uptrend channel enclosing this recent move. Unless it's violated the trend remains up. I have quite been humbled by this up move. Perhaps I was forcing myself to see a drop in prices instead of just seeing s/r and staying content. Indexes have started to break into new ground and lets see if it stays that way or they drop back into lower value areas. RIMM hasn't followed Indexes into new highs but is above the hinge and resting right under s/r at 80-81. There is support around 78.
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Q's are above s/r but xlf are heading towards it. Tech's have been holding quite well but let's see for how long. SPX is rising and reaching s/r but on reduced volume. It's volume on drop was larger. Lets see if supply shows up as traders return. I am quite bearish in my outlook due to lack of new stocks going up and change in volume behaviour indexes. At the end of day violation of s/r may change this outlook. RIMM's a personal love/hate stock for me. I have some puts on it and they've come back to break even. I chose RIMM because of better spread on options. Compared to AAPL which is almost at recent peak RIMM has been unable to reach it's previous high despite some analysts upgrades this past week. What concerns me is that RIMM did hold well when market was dropping and started going up. Strength in adversity! (Now shorters do use these news items to re-short when stock reach logical shorting points). Considering tech's one of the strongest group's it's quite dangerous to be short on a tech stock. I like liquidity though and used s/r around 78 for short. Beyond 80 I'll bail on it.
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Q's have reached the danger point. It appears s/r has been crossed but barely. Today was a chance to place shorts for those who expect reversal at s/r. Market didn't really show much weakness today and kept going up. It did move sideways intra-day for quite some time. Still, that's the magic of s/r, you play them and in case of adverse move quickly get out. Strangely, I emotionally felt uncomfortable to be thinking about shorting with such a powerful upside move. I had, in my naivete, thought myself to be a Vulcan! Live by the S/R; die by the S/R. Next week shall unravel some more.
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I am seeing weakness in Utilities and Energy groups. This means if market in time gets weaker we might have to look for shorts in this group. Energy will have mostly oil and alternative energy. XLK = Technology (strong) XLE = Energy (weak) I have given XLK and XLE to show the relative strength/weakness of these SPDR's that follow some respective sectors. At the end of the day if market musters some power to blast through these resitances we may become buyers. Until than I am keen on protecting my eggs by avoiding longs. Note: October is historically the most dangerous month for market. It's only 6 weeks away. It could all culminate closer to that time (point mentioned by Db in chatroom). QQQ 40 area is Resistance ® Nasdaq: 2000 area is R S&P500: 1000 area is R TSX: 1100 area is R Indexes are stuck at these round numbers. Due to the strength in tech I am guessing sideways movement to have a serious possibility after this substantial advance, as opposed to direct drop in case of more market weakness. S/R is the key and better is to pick a good spot at S/R to minimize danger. I would wait for market to come back up before taking positions on the downside. If I am able to find something worth shorting on individual stocks I'll try to post them. For the EOD enthusiasts opportunities come at a slow rate. Some times dizzyingly slow
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Hi Guys, How can I get two indexes on same chart? Like NQ + X; not at the bottom like volume bars but at the top with NQ bars. X = tickq;another index; etc; Thanks. Ninja + Mirus
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Below is some longer range prospective of Q's. I would stay cautious at these levels. That being said, so far market hasn't sold off and is continueing to have higher highs and higher lows. Once the dynamic changes, or atleast stalling takes place at these levels, the upmove I consider to be intact. Market can blast through resistances as well. This chart is just a reminder to stay awake. And yes there is considerable support undernethe. Quite a messy area if you ask me.
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Yes, you're right Db. I realized this while shaving, ran back and you had me nailed .
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From what I believe, major S/R are independent of time frame. This may mean getting s/r on larger bar interval and zooming in to say 1min bar to see what's happening. This zooming in doesn't change where S/R really is just shows you faster action at the same price range or level. With the current market it's tougher to find proper s/r which is causing some problem in picking the right spots (atleast in my case). I perfer 60min/Daily s/r and then zoom in to 1min or shorter for entry at the s/r determined by larger interval. I'll talk to you guys in a week. This is vacation time for me.
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I found this post on "Re: Futures I Trade Show & Brooks Book" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month July, 2009"
