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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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From what I understand the 20th century was only 10 years ago! Most of the mainstream books by Wyckoff are more like articles with words of wisdom and friendly storytelling style interspersed. This one my friend is grunt work and if you want something practical then you have to drop the excuse of 20th century language and start focusing on the material therein. There's widsom to be had from these old words from the master. Gringo
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Above 122 I exit and under 120 I go short. You need to have your own criteria about what to do. For some going above 120 is a long as it's a breakout. I play reversals hence under 120 is a short. Someone who went long above 120 may have 119.5 as stop loss or 119 or lower based on personal plans. There are other threads that explain where to exit etc. Gringo
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Here's a quick review of GLD. 120 seems to be s/r.
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Hello, Update for US Dollar here. The bottom (could be temporary) was not much off the mark. Strength in UUP is becoming apparent. I notice price getting close to resistance around 24 area and effort increasing with lesser upward price progress. It would be interesting to see what comes next. A retest, a partial drop, or no drop at all? If you noticed a day or two ago Fed raised bank loans rate from 0.5-0.75. Now it's nothing significant but points to some internal tightening. The interesting part is that even not having any information and looking at only price and volume it was becoming apparent in Dec-Jan time frame that USD was not sinking anymore. None of us had to be an insider to see strengthening in USD before the loans rate news came out. Note also that USD was dropping with equity markets more or less rising since Mar 09. Now USD is rising and equities are still rising. Weakening US dollar was good for exports and business (also lowered debt payments in relative terms) hence the logic dictated to buy US equities. Strengthening dollar means confidence is returning and economy is not fragile anymore so logic dictates to again buy US equities! Hmmm..what must a person do? Best is to look at the chart and and price/volume behaviour and make decisions from there.
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Here's an update for USD. It appears 22 magically held well. Please keep in mind the fact that price is still going down to mean supply is still greater. What we are looking for are potential signs of a change in trend. A normal correction after such a drop is to be generally expected. If nothing else those thinking of shorting UUP may hold their horses after this. Why waste your bullet on a an animal that's already dead? Please note the huge volume (horizontal volume) for 22-23 price range. It may give a clue that perhaps 22 and 23 levels are price extremes. Atleast that's how I am interpreting it and movement from here may have some significance.
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USD seems to be closing on an important s/r level. There are signs of significantly higher volume intensity and potential climax. The picture isn't clear at this moment but may require some caution. Please note Gold has been running up while dollar has slowed its descent. Had traders stuck to believing USD and Gold are inversely related they would have had trouble sticking with holding longs in Gold after USD drop slowed down and even changed direction for a week. That's why it is recommended to compare price charts but trade each entity on its own merit. This is the post where gold and USD comparison was done earlier. Heres' the current Gold chart. I haven't made much changes to it from last time it was displayed for comparison. Just for comparison purposes I'll add the Oil chart as well. Oil is stuck around the 40 level still. USO Monthly
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Clones...Db clones... Edit: It's a joke in case ridicule's coming my way.
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Hi, I wanted to know why there are multiple options for say BAC with same strike price trading at different prices for say Jan 2011? I assumed it could be leaps from previous years with same strike price but shouldn't price be same when both are expiring together? The link shows where you can see basic quote as an example: http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=BAC&m=2011-01 BAC Jan 2011 2.5000 call (VBAAY.X) price: 12.5 BAC Jan 2011 2.5000 call (CONTR (VEDAZ.X) price: 10.3 I am guessing it's not European or American option difference as it's an american security. Does CONTR mean inverse? Thanks
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Hi Firewalker, Due to the lack of climax this daily move and the top box don't appear to be indicating an end of longer term upmove. I am thinking of this top box now in terms of consolidation rather than reaching a solid s/r. DbPhoenix, highlighted earlier that just because price turned direction at a level doesn't mean it's the top (but rather a swing high) when I had earlier mentioned 43.2 area to be to of box and an s/r. His opinion was that it was a more likely a swing high and due to lack of climax not really an s/r. This is a very subtle concept that I didn't catch earlier, and even now am quoting DbPhoenix according to what I believe he meant. It was an nontheless an eye opener as I couldn't even understand what he was talking about. Now, if we compare this daily to say a monthly chart this area would be considered in my eyes a small consolidation in middle of a very large area with bottom around 25 area adn top around 50. So say we go down even 15-20% doesn't mean we're at the bottom of that very large area but merely consolidating during the up move. To explain this to you I looked at a monthly chart and actually came up with a pretty impressive outlook (if I may so unhumbly say it myself! ) Please note that we may not have picked top and bottoms using monthly charts as they contain so much within each bar. But the concept we are talking about may become clearer after seeing this. Also, that s/r can be created at any place if the traders start fighting at that level. That will though again as said earlier require some hint of climax.
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Hi Tannism, Having volume that far back doesn't really tell the story of demand and supply being played currently. It does tell about relative intensity of the fight being lower this time around as compared to earlier movements. So this may mean demand is giving in easily to smaller supply and isn't really fighting hard to stop the drop. i) Are buyers waiting for some lower price level at a bargin price to exert their pressure, ii)or are they just weakened with no strength to stop price drop even with only a little supply? We don't know and for trading purposes it doesn't even matter IMHO. What matters is price got rejected and couldn't stay above 43 area. Please note that I am not trading Q's End of Day but rather on intra-day basis for the time being. Once market gives some serious signal that uptrend is over I may start deploying onger term shorts at that time. DbPhoenix in previous posts cleared my misconception on larger intervals and reminded me about lack of climatic volume and lack of break in TL as reasons to avoid shorting prematurely. TL appears to have been broken today as I write and we'll see how price behaves to deduce if it's worth shorting possibly closer to top if price gets there. However, keep in mind we haven't seen volume resembling climax so far on the upmove, which puts a damper in my eyes about the importance of TL break and longer term shorts. Perhaps this is another normal correction of market which may last a few weeks to months instead of being an end of up move.
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Here's daily Q's. Long term trend is still intact as TL is still holding. Volume was higher this time above the 43.2 level and supply won most of the times. This showed supply had some intent and fighting at that level. Nonetheless, volume isn't significantly high as compared to previous rejections. TL is still holding and unless that breaks long term trend stays upwards in my eyes. Break of TL may imply a possibility of change in trend but not a certainty of it. Sideways, downwards or upwards moves are still all game even after the break of TL. The upmoves are getting progressively shorter length wise and percent wise.
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Yes, wjr was mentioning TD in chat! It was of course when trading slowed down. I am not sure if he used it actively for entry decision making.
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As apparent from the yellow horizontal volume on NQ the bulk of trades are around 1744 - 1755 area. Doesn't this make this area a mid with 1774 more or less as upper extreme? It could be the limited bar frame not going far back enough that's giving this illusion. At times having price going back more gives a better picture. I have given below a 60 min chart of Q's in order to compress more price data. It's not too clear either but may give another perspective.
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Ok. I got out in the morning. Couldn't wait for market gods to give me more rope. Close to BE isn't bad for a blunder.:cheers:
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Yes this is my mistake. Oweing to earning coming out I had worried I would be left behind and jumped the gun. Now, this is confusing me. It looks like a pretty reasonable box and shorting top of it which I am considering to be s/r is only a swing high in your eyes! Because this is the highest point for market doesn't it make it more than a swing high? My idea was not that it's the start of bear move but only that price might end up being at lower end of box. Perhaps that's what's differentiating a proper s/r from just a swing high. I was considering volume only at s/r which in turn made whatever the volume on first turn the climax volume in my eyes. Sounds simple enough, doesn't it?
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By EOD mean close to market close. Position was initiated a few minutes before close. The comment about why I took a short with lower volume is now causing me to see it as somewhat of a mistake. Mistake in the sense that I didn't wait for price to get rejected but preempted the reversal when price hit R. I considered the fact that R was not broken to mean we were under it and hence a reversal was higher probability due to price being at s/r and volume when price reached R to be lower than previous times it had reached R. I thought that's what Wyckoff meant by test on lower volume.
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It appears we are at an important juncture. Q's have gone higher than s/r in after hours after turning back to s/r recently. What I know is that price is above s/r. My EOD short of Q tonight went in the red as soon as AAPL announced its earnings. Earlier I had mentioned 200 being a very important level for AAPL. Lets see if it can hold this level or is it going to fumble here. Markets are full of excitement whether it's day or it's night. I had shorted Q's based on low volume test of s/r on dailies and initiated position close to end of day. Atleast with s/r it's not too long before one finds out whether the decision was right or wrong. There were two converging thoughts. First, that demand came in very quickly after price came down after hitting s/r and instead of continuing lower turned back up. Second, was the low volume test favouring short. At S/r without a break upwards I went for short. As a bonus here is the financial index as well. It's right under s/r so far but may break upwards in the morning with techs pushing higher.
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Hello Pinetree, In my opinion we are under the s/r (I am considering s/r to be dynamic rather than a static number). Simply because if it were a proper breakout price would blast forward and not get slammed back down. Volume was higher when price did break upwards but couldn't stay above s/r. Three times price tried and first two times high vol (high intensity) struggle ended with supply winning both times. The third time demand gave in quite easily considering on last attempt volume is lower. Either the demand doesn't want to push prices up right now or is actually exhausted after failed attempts to break upwards. I am leaning on the side of demand exhausting due to the higher volume intense attempts to push prices up. If demand had not wanted prices to go higher it would have given up easily earlier, but higher volume attempts suggest intent and then failure. Another small thing to note is the general level of volume being lower as compared to the price when it was basing around 100. I am not sure if it has any significance apart from the fact that lower intensity is able to achieve now what higher intensity was required to achieve earlier. Are bulls and bears unwilling to press on the gas due to fear of being not completely sure? Pinetree, from your posts it's apparent that you're not too green when it comes to analysis. I had to think twice before posting anything due to your apparent mastery and depth of deducing meaning out of every wrinkle. I fear my analysis, showing your propensity for excellent micro-analysis, would fall short. What I fear more, however, is the effect on your psyche, of doing such deep analysis and then finding price to do the opposite. A knife master doesn't just stab you to death, but instead bleeds you into weakness and delusion before you fall to your own death. Beware of these small nicks to your psyche. Gringo
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I see s/r right here and vol lower on this test of Q's. For those who are planning a swing or something may enter shorts here. Danger is that market is in a significant uptrend spanning the past seven months. Note that if market has a mind to blast up it may do so quite around here and leave shorts scrambling to get out. I am no magician but if one doesn't take a trade when it appears then one might just end up waiting most of the time. It is at these extreme points opportunities favour the brave. Q's 60min show a more engaging outlook where it become apparent how having a good trading philosophy still leaves one to chose one's own poison whether to trade or not to trade. It is quite messy up here no doubt. I used horizontal volume bars to give me a clue in concert with price to draw the bigger box. I consider 42.6 (NQ 1730 to be quit significant because of price trips to this level). As a side note, I would like to add that using options to trade for direction requires quite a different skill set than using straight leveraged and liquid instruments such as ETFs, stocks or futures. The greater the number of variables that separate you from true price the harder it gets to figure out what actually is happening. For options it's volatility, time and a host of other variables. Please, stay cautious and spend some time learning the skill of trading before plunging in.
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I see s/r right here and vol lower on this test of Q's. For those who are planning a swing or something may enter shorts here. Danger is that market is in a significant uptrend spanning the past seven months. Note that if market has a mind to blast up it may do so quite around here and leave shorts scrambling to get out. I am no magician but if one doesn't take a trade when it appears then one might just end up waiting most of the time. It is at these extreme points opportunities favour the brave. Q's 60min show a more engaging outlook where it become apparent how having a good trading philosophy still leaves one to chose one's own poison whether to trade or not to trade. It is quite messy up here no doubt. I used horizontal volume bars to give me a clue in concert with price to draw the bigger box. As a side note I would like to add that using options to trade for direction requires quite a different skill set than using straight leveraged and liquid instruments such as ETFs, stocks or futures. The greater the number of variables that separate you from true price the harder it gets to figure out what actually is happening. For options it's volatility, time and a host of other variables. Please, stay cautious and spend some time learning the skill of trading before plunging in.
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Below is analysis of Oil. There is a monthly long term view and then we zoom into the dailies to see how it's panning out. Gold broke out recently and is holding well and now oil appears to be behaving similarly. It hasn't broken out but considering the inflation play if it materializes oil could similarly follow to the upside. Most comments are included with the charts. USO Monthly USO Daily Notice volume in the hinge. It's not receding to show supply/demand coming to and equilibrium and traders agreeing around a price and reducing their efforts. Here higher volume suggests (in my opinion) unresolved agreement on price and perhaps uncertainty of price? Something for you to think about. Price target calculated using s/r and a voodoo technical analysis method both give around 45 as target. I take these targets with little gumption unless there's an s/r there. Enjoy the charts and feel free to find faults and add your thoughts so that we can all grow together. Gringo
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Yea baby! I am back....
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First, if you don't see a complete set of tools, click "Go Advanced". Then, right-click your upload and click "Copy Link Location". Then, center your cursor (the center justification; it's to the right of the B I U). Then click the icon with the mountains in it (it used to be a TV screen). You'll get a popup. Then paste the link location into the popup (don't erase the prefix in the popup). That's it.
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How's this possible? :crap:
