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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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Thanks Db, In this same chart, the long you took was based on price behaviour. The price behaviour indicated a long and you took it after the successful test. The strange thing is that price doesn't "touch" the S but stays a bit above it and you don't wait for price to come to S first and have an exact test or rebound there. You still take the long when it is presented. Does that mean being close enough to S/R is good enough to stay alert rather than having an exact contact with the line or level? This also leads to a second question. In this case the long was taken above the S with a stop independent of S but rather based on the swing point. What if the price was below the S/R level and the behaved exactly the same way as it did when you took the long. Would being below the S/R and having that overhead R change your decision to take the long in that case even though the behaviour is now indicating another long after the test? It seems to me that I have always considered S/R to be the ultimate/primary and the test and other price behaviour to be secondary and expected something to happen almost precisely at S/R. If you would have taken the longs in both cases where price is above and where it is below the S/R level then it would mean the price is the primary/ultimate determinant and S/R are secondary. Now that would be a serious shift in my thinking and approach. Gringo
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Db, Why is the exit delayed until the successful test? I had expected exit to be the break of SL. Please see attached amended chart. Is this area being a mid and not the S/R the reason that normal course of action requiring simply exiting break of SL not followed? Gringo p.s. I added the black SL. My photoshop skills need some honing. p.s.s I'll go through the thread, maybe this question has already been addressed.
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Hi Db, I have set up the Ninja Trader for its replay feature. This way I could go through the day again and again until the brain can follow the plan without much hassle. Plan needs to be completed though. Soon. Thanks for help. Gringo p.s I had deduced from your post that the exits should be made so simple as to remove any semblance of uncertainty, hence, removing the emotional aspect altogether.
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Db, I think I know the answers to at least most of them. There's too much theory in my head and perhaps, I may be trying to avoid taking responsibility or something. I know I can let SL/DL control most of the exit and even take partial exit on break of SL/DL and then wait for the LSL to break before completely exiting. The potential climax just alerts to the possibility of the slowdown or end of trend and only price is the true arbiter. I do have one advantage and that's the screen time I've had over so many years. The problems I have are: 1) Don't exit when stop is hit. Especially if it's repeated exits I have taken before and just want it to work out. 2) Too much leverage. 3) Not staying inactive until the right moment. All this has brought me full circle to reluctantly and begrudgingly start writing a plan and have exact entry and exit criteria. Basically I've had it with knowing all this theory and still being unable to show anything for it. I am sitting clean in cash until the plan's ready and tested (I do resent this testing part, even though I haven't even reached that stage) but I hate even more is now even sticking to my own damn unwritten plans. If I cheat on my own plan what's the point of having the plan in the first place. Market is is a dual edged sword. One needs to know exactly what to do and also control emotions at the same time. The problem is that at the start emotions are controlled and then slowly the psyche gets affected one way or the other and back to the same old issues. But there is a solution. Follow exactly what's written in this forum and focus on one thing at a time. The trading in 90 minute thread has put some light on the correct way of observing the flow of the price and even without knowing much about S/R it seems to be holding its own. Adding s/r to it probably adds another arrow in the quiver. The hardest part is to see all this and realize it's so damn simple. I see Db's charts and SL/DL and there's nothing out of this world stuff in it. It's exactly the way it's laid out in the posts here. This time I am going to follow the plan to the ground. I have no profit objectives and eventually when I go live my only objective is to stick with the plan. Nothing fancy, just breakouts, retracements and reversals as the wise say! Gringo
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Here is a bit of an update on the daily QQQ. Gringo
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I need some input regarding exit strategy when a potential climax is identified. I am only working on one set up for now. Writing is making me confront issue that I otherwise would have confronted mid flight. I am assuming here that the trade has been initiated and a potential climax has been sighted. I need to plan what I am going to do next. Exit: Potential Climax (higher than normal volume) a) Complete exit? b) Partial exit? c) Wait for SL/DL break after pot.climax? d) Draw a steeper SL/DL lines after pot. Climax and exit when the steeper SL/DL breaks? This one's confusing as sl/dl are created usually when LL or HH is made and may not always be the case as some sideways movement is I believe required before that can happen (feel free to blast away the logic here). e) Exit completely if close to S/R but wait for SL/DL break otherwise? f) Do nothing the SL/DL break will eventually dictate exit. Writing things down doesn't allow much space to hide behind lame excuses. It is or it isn't. Q: If one tests a set up in with a certain bar-interval is that set up good enough for a different interval? Would the same if-else logic for say hourly bars work for daily bars? From the multiple bar-intervals I tend to think it should be fine. I use s/r independent of bar intervals and the logic holds. Perhaps what I am asking is that if I do testing on intra-day 1-minute or 5-minute interval and results are favourable, does that automatically lead me to conclude that daily trading would be fine as well? Or for that I would need to do a new set of testing on daily prices even though only the bar-interval has been changed? Gringo p.s I may have put a lot of questions in one post.
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Oh! And I thought I was in WF. Gringo
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I need some input regarding exit strategy when a potential climax is identified. I am only working on one set up for now. Writing is making me confront issue that I otherwise would have confronted mid flight. I am assuming here that the trade has been initiated and a potential climax has been sighted. I need to plan what I am going to do next. Exit: Potential Climax (higher than normal volume) a) Complete exit? b) Partial exit? c) Wait for SL/DL break after pot.climax? d) Draw a steeper SL/DL lines after pot. Climax and exit when the steeper SL/DL breaks? This one's confusing as sl/dl are created usually when LL or HH is made and may not always be the case as some sideways movement is I believe required before that can happen (feel free to blast away the logic here). e) Exit completely if close to S/R but wait for SL/DL break otherwise? f) Do nothing the SL/DL break will eventually dictate exit. Writing things down doesn't allow much space to hide behind lame excuses. It is or it isn't. Q: If one tests a set up in with a certain bar-interval is that set up good enough for a different interval? Would the same if-else logic for say hourly bars work for daily bars? From the multiple bar-intervals I tend to think it should be fine. I use s/r independent of bar intervals and the logic holds. Perhaps what I am asking is that if I do testing on intra-day 1-minute or 5-minute interval and results are favourable, does that automatically lead me to conclude that daily trading would be fine as well? Or for that I would need to do a new set of testing on daily prices even though only the bar-interval has been changed? Gringo p.s I may have put a lot of questions in one post.
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Hi Db, Thanks for the reply. Are you implying that you don't keep a log/trading journal now? Meaning because you have identified most of your if-else price behaviour scenarios you don't need it? Gringo
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Hi Db, Is this the WTF? Gringo p.s. Do you have a sample trading journal or a format that works for you?
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Hello, Below are charts for QQQ. The long term trend from the Monthly chart is up. That doesn't mean at this level it can't change. We are at at S/R level now and will have to see how price behaves here. Price has come here without flinching much but resistance is resistance and must be respected in my opinion. I included the 60 min chart to show how it could be used to time entries better and also to indicate that there are multiple mini s/r level within the longer monthly and daily bar intervals. Even though the time frame is the same, having different intervals allows a clearer picture to emerge. Gringo
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In the first post of this thread a link to the below chart game was given by atto. Chartgame.com - The time-lapse stock trading game I've been playing this game and it has brought out a few hidden demons in my trading behaviour. I have started to spend more and more time with it and at times you get charts with prices that are not at s/r and generally must be avoided. I realized my s/r weren't working well and price was moving erratically even at extremes. On further inspection the larger time frame coupled with shorter time frame reduced this chop. I am far off from the real thing and my behaviour and feelings actually mimicked the trading behaviour I exhibited when I traded live. In fact once I was forced to cut loss more than a few times and even started feeling angry that the price wasn't doing anything as it kept going no where. I kept expecting something would happen but nothing really did and price ended up more or less flat. Because you can play each game within minutes it is a good way in my opinion to give one a taste of how price moves. Not knowing the stock or the year forces one to pay attention to the price and volume movement. Because the stocks are real and price movements real as well you do get a feel for how market messes with your mind with unexpected price twists. Give it a try if you are interested otherwise I am sure quite a few can just use current data to sim. Gringo
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Db, For a certain setup if price behaves in a certain way the actions to be taken remain constant? To illustrate what I meant by actions to be taken, suppose not seeing a higher high after taking a long position might lead to partial unloading of the long. For a long taken at Support Price Behaviour: negative occurrence of a Higher High Action to be taken: Partial unloading of the position. So next time around the support level is perhaps different but the same scenario would lead to the same unloading of partial position after observing an absence of higher high? This seems logical and for some reason what you said today hit some cord within. With a set up if one keeps adding possible what-if’s then eventually there will be a enough what-if’s to have an almost mechanical execution, cutting the emotion out. Now I should know this already but somehow my brain wandered into too many theoretical aspects of trading instead of keeping it so simple :doh:. Strangely I feel excited to re-realize this basic point . Thanks, Gringo
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Prymetime, The below 3 are possible entry points for you as far as I understand. 1) BO above R 2) BO below S 3) Long off of Mid You are not interested in reversals at S and R. Correct? Strangely I avoid the setups you seek and take the setups that for now you seem to avoid! Personality and preferences colour our trading so much Enjoy the journey. Gringo Ps. Sorry on a second read it seems you are open to reversing your position. Quite fluid I say.
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Here's my take on the GLD. My analysis is rusty so use your own judgement. Gringo
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As strange as it may sound, I stay away from the Mids. I guess everyone has a different tolerance for turbulence.
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Everything one needs to learn the pure Wyckoff method is available here. It's not the messenger but the message that matters (wow that's an impressive line ) We're all silently observing. Gringo
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Yea, the owner appreciates your praise! Gringo
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AAPL bounced from the 240 support and is up. I had emotional cloudiness over this s/r as my heart believed s/r was going to break and AAPL was doomed. The priced kept hoovering around s/r for quite a few days indicating it didn't have much power to rebound. Just like many other things in market individual opinion count for naught. I was wrong and as soon as AAPL regained 240 long was the play with tight stops. It was a good reminder to stay true to price rather than formulate doomsday theories. Couldn't a child have traded this easily with knowing just that above 240 is long? Q's are approaching s/r around 47. I looked at gold closely and saw the below s/r. It's touching s/r right now. My earlier charts had GLD with one box but two seems a better fit than a wide one box. As a side not there's been some strength in cloud computing stocks. These are the stocks that have benefited from the proliferation of iphone and related products. NFLX, FFIV and others. Notice the lack of slowdown over the past year. Most are exteneded from s/r but those with interest can stay alert to better entry points.
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Hi usanet21, Sorry about the incorrect response. The other good book about intraday-trading by Wyckoff I think is Studies in Tape Reading (aka: Day Trader's Bible). It's available in the skicky: Introduction If it's not the book then I am not certain what else you are talking about. Wyckoff material and analysis works independent of bar interval. You could have daily or 1min bars and your interpretation more or less stays the same keeping the larger trend in perspective of course. Gringo
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Hi usanet21, This same thread on page 4 has the pdf. Note to DB: Please post the pdf in the top most sticky : Wyckoff: The Original Course.
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Usanet21, From what I understand SMI has added some acronyms and other things to the original Wyckoff trading course. We, here adhere more to the original which is freely available here and is the core of what SMI is selling now. Realistically, this site has enough Wyckoff material and guidance to make a reasonable trader out of you if you're disciplined and determined. If you still wish to spend the money go ahead and compare the two courses yourself. Basically it boils down to what you feel comfortable with. There may be a way to perhaps compare the table of contents from SMI course and the Orginal Wyckoff Trading course here. This may give you an overview of how things stand. As a disclaimer I don't have SMI Wyckoff course and am relaying something I have heard from other Wyckoff enthusiasts. Gringo
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Hi, I suggest you check with SMI. Why not get the exact information you need from the source.
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AAPL is around support/resistance and long trendline. Break of s/r would imply probability of going down to be greater. Rebound here could take AAPl to the upper bound. Upper limit: 272 Middle: 256 Lower Limit: 240 Break of trendline implies the uptrend may be over. It does not imply the uptrend is over. Price could after breaking the trend line move in this manner: a) sideways b) down c) up My preference is to watch action at support or resistance and then decide what I need to do based on price and volume behaviour. Gringo
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UUP is heading close to the support line around 24 area. We'll have to see how it behaves there. The drop has been quit steep with lower volume hinting at lack of support. Gold is in a long term uptrend. GLD Weekly shows 120 and 123 to be s/r. It's more like a range in my eyes especially after the price broke above 120 two times. Still to be sure 120 is a resonable support/resistance area based on volume. Be aware that after falling below 120 the price didn't just collapse but rather is meandering closer to the resistance line and could break upwards as well. For a longer term perspective about GLD. See the trend upwards. Although this current rally couldn't take gold past the previous highs for long and price fell below 120. It could be early signs of weakness, sideways movement, or a random event. All I know is below 120 (under resistance) is not a place to go long in my books. Those with other plans may do whatever they wish. Non-Wyckoff Ramblings: On a side note, notice how GLD advances rapidly after the Tech Bubble and continues to advance thorough the Housing Bubble. Some indicate this to show how expansionary monetary policy is increasing gold value in dollars simply due to the depreciation of dollar. Other North American central banks have been more or less moving in tandem with Fed policies hence a global rise in gold prices in terms of currencies. This straight forward trend analysis and chart makes is simple to see which way price is moving. A lot of hassle is removed from the mind by just having an upward trending line showing clearly the long term trend still being intact. There are signs of gold based exchanges where online a person can bypass currency and have gold account and buy or sell goods in terms of pure gold. There are in Australia mining companies that allow 100% backed gold exchanges - meaning they don't use fractional reserve to lend more than what they have at hand akin to a modern bank. I am not sure how strong this trend is however, the disallusion with too much interference by central banks in the market may be a cause of this. There are so many reasons as to why gold is rising so much faster than other commodities. It's also possible the time for a bubble in gold is close at hand and it might get its due euphoric rise and then a collapse. Most things that go up fast do end up getting dumped at some time. In the 70s and 80s I believe gold went from 50 to 850 That's was quite a rise. The simplest and straight forward way is to keep an eye on price and leave the stories for table talk. It's easier to have a nice story to explain things as opposed to saying simply that the price is below resistance hance I am not long.
