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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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Tupapa, Focus my friend. You're almost there. Gringo
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The NQ 100 price dropped below the range that's been a few days old now. The S/R was at around 2839 for me. I didn't take the long early in the day but after 10:09am started entering the shorts. Had a gain of around 3 points. For me not losing big is a biggie and following the ebb and flow of price has allowed me to not get caught in the wrong direction for long. Below are the longer term and 1 min charts. I haven't indicated entry/exit points as I am beginning to realize the importance of what Db is attempting to point out in this wonderful thread. Once the price behaviour is more or less determined correctly making entries and exits according to some plan isn't that much of a big deal. 1 min: Gringo Edit: I also noticed the price getting lethargic after 10:30 am or so. It's not visible on the chart but because of that I didn't get caught in the last TR. Because it was closer to 11am and a HL for price but also having an S/R above kind of also led to taking it easy.
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You are right. Gringo
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There are rumours of Db tossing virgins in the volcano for favourable outcomes. :rofl: Gringo
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Db, Thanks for your reply. Now it all makes sense. The Trading in Foresight thread might get a lift now that I have live futures. Gringo
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Db, Using Q's the S/R looked close enough but looking at NQ I might have had to wait until price reached closer to S/R as it drifting in the middle of the midpoint and S/R and about 5 points away. Had I been using NQ future chart I might have not taken either the long and the subsequent short. Price is at a position where it's own behaviour is the only guide (I guess it always is for that matter), but we are in no-man's-land and this kind of creates a conundrum of sorts whether to initiate a trade at all until price gets closer to some S/R or even midpoint. How would you have acted based on price behaviour. To me it appears as if it was a discretionary decision and initiating a position early on or waiting for price to get closer to S/R or the midpoint were both correct decisions. Gringo
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Yes Db, I wasn't aware of ForexPro. I have already gone to the site and opened up NQ 100 and am seeing their data is pretty good. For my day practice needs it's sufficient. At home I have replay data on NinjaTrader for practice. Now I can use even day time for screen time. I love it! Yes, I'll try to exclude the previous day's gap from the chart. I had trouble recognizing the NQ chart because there wasn't a gap in it today. I had an idea it might be the case but still it's a bit of extra work to re-align the eye to the price. Gringo
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My work has restrictions and I couldn't get the streaming RT data working even after downloading NT. This also has the added disadvantage that I can't see price behaviour before the open and have to rely on QQQ. I also couldn't use pre-market highs and lows but overall it isn't a bad experience. I also cannot go bar-intervals shorter than a minute to peek into the congestion zones but it's the idea of price move that's my main concern now. Once I start seeing the behaviour well then trading instruments can be adjusted as required. So instead of sitting at my hands I just follow on web based platform by refreshing price a gazillion times using QQQ. But in the end it's screen time for me. Also after the replays at faster speeds the stress at the normal speed is lower as I have more time to think. Replays are like weight training in a sense. Q's move the same way just the price is different and that's what I am really concerned about now. Later on I'll probably be trading with larger bar intervals to trade whenever that times comes as trading futures is going to be logistically tricky at work. Gringo
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Hello, My demo play. It wasn't quite difficult especially after getting homework done the previous day. Note the play of S/R and midpoint. Around 11am I called it quits. I wasn't trading with real money but testing my plan and notice the lack of volume indicator! The first long was taken reluctantly. After such a large drop I wasn't certain but price was close enough to S/R and was showing the ability to rise so I took it based on these two factors. Now distance from S/R is relative and I'll replay tonight to see what else I could have done. I was eyeing the price and posted DL/SL after wards to make it easier for those watching this thread to follow what was going on. Gringo
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Hi, Do you mean to initiate a long if the BO was long and then price falls back in the range and then slowly BO to the upside? It's a fake out, but in which direction are you anticipating the move to be? Or is this just to remind you it's a fake-out and to stay out of it? Gringo
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Tupapa, Are you using real money? Gringo
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Hi Db, I am not as available at all times in the morning as in the evening. The same TR from a two days ago meant less chance of action and real action happened after 10am. I couldn't really find an entry before 10am and then gave up the idea that that it was going to trend. Now I see things evolved rather nicely after the first half hour of trading. I did see the reject from range top but was of the mind that the chop will continue instead of thinking of it as an opportunity to trade within the range. Same with TR bottom and the V rise. Had I entered the trade management was ideal, even the DL didn't break for some time. Your earlier post has given me enough to incorporate in my plans and I'll be back to testing soon. I'll be looking at: 1) Using TR extremes for using as entry points with the idea of playing within the range. a) Danger of chop within the range. b) Is it even worth the hassle? 2) PDH/PDL in addition to the S/R are also becoming a bigger part of the plan. Being within their vicinity adds quite a bit context to the moves. 3) Volume is out (for now). Gringo p.s. I am testing different days of the different months one by one to have a better reaction to price move itself than having knowledge of whether it was a trending or range bound that day. Because of the rules though, it doesn't matter much whether I knew in advance the price movement as it is the rules that get me in and out even when I know the ultimate outcome.
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The Plan: Things I have discovered: 1) 10:45 - 11am onwards is a dangerous time for a day-trader. The moves are slower and profits start to evaporate. Once in a while price picks a direction and rewards the tenacious and the alert, but overall it's a net losing proposition in my opinion to trade beyond 11am. 2) TR is a death trap, especially if it is prolonged and narrow. 3) Sitting pat on a TR day. a) A new discovery. I had assumed day-traders always jumped in. Db, doesn't jump in, why should I? Things to figure out: 3) What rules can I identify to help me not go against the trend. I have pre-empted the change a few times in my replays even though the trend was still intact. Although the SL/DL got me out reasonably, I was too quick to reverse my position resulting in a forced exit. I am going to need more rules to keep me out until trend reversal has been confirmed. Now this going to involve a classic trade-off between price risk and information risk. If a short position is exited after break of SL and a successful test ensues. a ) Do I go long even though the TL is still down? or b) Wait till the TL or LSH is exceeded? or c) Both TL and LSH are exceeded? As strange as it sounds, I have grappled with these questions before especially when the live chat room was in place but because of the plan I can't hide any more behind fake and forgotten understanding. There isn't much time to think while the price is moving and the moment I get confused and indecisive I know more precise rules are required for the conditions. Having a plan does allow me to see what is working and where tweaks are necessary. Even with pure trial and error the bad parts getting replaced should eventually lead to an improved performance. Didn't Darwin say something like this as well? Gringo
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I am not very enthusiastic about volume any more. I'll have to do more testing but am seriously considering removing it altogether from my charts. There are many reasons for it but the only thing it tells me about is intensity of the trading. Other than that my entries and exits don't rely on it. Maybe for pure stock trading it's helpful but for futures and indexes I am finding it tough to incorporate. When price gives a sell signal to me I don't care whether volume is higher or lower or whatever, I exit. This in a way indicates to me that volume is more of a distraction as well. Now I don't feel that confident about leaving it out altogether but during my testing I am going to attempt to get rid of it and see how things evolve. It's not an absolute giving up but a trail of sorts. W, and Db, have both written extensively about volume and it's usage and having this dark cloud of experience over my head does scare me from letting go. Time will tell or shall I say more testing will tell. I may end up leaving volume on the chart but not paying much attention to it expect perhaps at major S/R. My stocks and ETF's all have Vol by Price to determine areas of interest or trading ranges. Even the thought of volume-less existence is making me feel vulnerable. Perhaps for now I focus only on NQ futures and then see how things evolve. The new clarity or the baby steps of clarity I gained was after observing the TBP thread that thread doesn't even have any talk of volume. If so much can be gained by stripping to the bare bones, that is to the price movement alone, how much more could be gained by sticking with this bare bones approach a bit more? Any thoughts? Gringo
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Hello goodoboy, This is only my opinion of why the exit was earlier. 1) If you notice the price wasn't even able to reach the previous high of 2611 and that showed either the weakness in demand or a strength of supply. In any case the failure of price to show strength prompted or justified an earlier exit instead of waiting for the stop to be hit. 2) Stop could have been below the bar low where the long was initiated. These are based on personal risk tolerances. Perhaps the significant earlier advance and the fact that price had made a LH probably induced some caution into this stage of trading. We only have price to make our decisions but that violent up and down price move before the TR beings could have been a potential climax for buyers and a potential harbinger of the trend being over. This could have prompted some caution towards taking too aggressive a long, hence, leading to increased caution and closer stop. 3) "Failure to break out above resistance": This actually isn't visible in RT and only a product of hindsight trading. When the long is initiated at that time the resistance line probably couldn't have been drawn at 2610 as the test of 2610 happens in the future i.e., after the long has already been exited. Gringo
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Hi Db, I got into a few problems today. In the morning in RT I don't have access to futures so had to use QQQ as my surrogate for NQ. The first issue was the TL from yesterday that came in the path of my taking a long at A. I knew at that time without the TL coming down I would have taken the long there without a plan for this contingency caused confusion and I decided to not initiate a position and just monitored price (initiate on paper). Also, when the price is moving violently up and down is it fine to not initiate a position? Do we give importance to TL coming from a previous day or two even though the SL had been broken to the upside and price was back above the S at around point A? From B-C-D-E the plan kept me in good stead. Gringo
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This is my replay of the same time frame and bar interval. Around 10:25 am I shorted two contracts by mistake so covered one immediately. I couldn't identify TR. After today's comments I'll add a line to my plan to keep an eye on LH and HL combo for a possible TR. I also had to exit a few more times but managed to re-enter. Strangely my replay data didn't show the hinge Db is talking about from the previous day. Maybe it's a few more days back but whatever. As I increases the data downloaded perhaps the accuracy of charts will increase. Another change is my preference to go all black on volume and price. It makes me focus on the price movement rather than bars. I had always preferred multi-coloured bars in the past especially because they made it easier to match price bar with the similarly coloured volume bar. I am replaying the day multiple times until I see the flow better and make better entries. What I have noticed is that once I draw the SL/DL I trade better than just eyeing the price. It most likely is just lack of eye adjustment to the fast pace. It is going to take a bit of time but my anger or fear is significantly absent especially because I know where I'll exit and the opportunities keep coming up so I don't have time to contemplate too much. My only objective right now is to get used to following my own plan. There is still hesitation at not recognizing completely all that's transpiring but there is a ray of hope as well. And it has become enjoyable, more like a video game now that I only have to just follow the plan. Oh did I mention the PnL was showing a couple of hundred bucks even after so many false entries. I haven't bothered to check whether there's an error or something in calculation as I am too tired. Gringo
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Hello goodoboy, From what I under Db isn’t saying not to have what-if scenarios. He’s saying the what-if need to be in place in advance and if based on that you’ve taken a trade then don’t fret about it while the trading is going on. You observe what happened around S/R, using replay or cover the bars and move along as if you were trading in real time and try to decipher if any clues were visible to indicate interplay of demand and supply, that could be added to your plan of ‘what-if’ scenarios. You could then choose to include or exclude clauses in your plan that would have prevented you from getting sucked into a trade like this in the first place to exit your position in a case where price goes against your position. For a long you’d need to focus on when the demand shows some strength and then whether it has lasting power or is just temporary. How do we find out if demand has intent? Price either halts its downward movement or starts moving up at least for some time. Focus on these and see whether there was a time beginning Apr 23 where demand started to look strong enough. Right now don’t worry about whether you entered or not. Your only focus is to see whether demand is showing sufficient strength to warrant a long position. If it isn’t showing sufficient strength then is supply showing more strength? Again, how would you know if supply is stronger than demand? Yes, you’re right, price will start to move downwards. Have fun with your analysis. Gringo
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Db, I don't know how you figured out I wasn't paying much attention to s/r but yes, my mind was on sl/dl and trend and seemed to have drifted away from s/r. Only the longer term s/r I was paying attention too. Another issue I am having is not realizing the use of volume any more. With so much focus on price only I am not sure if I can even trust volume much. On test I just glance to see whether it is lower than before when price reached the same level. I am guessing it's primarily due to newly renewed focus on price itself and will probably improve with continued practice. 20814md, Thanks for your attempt to solve my P/L problem. I am only testing using NinjaTrader as they have old minute by minute sim to replay for free. I probably won't be trading futures per se, but will be using mostly ETF's such as QQQ. Now this simulator is very good but not entirely specific to my needs. I'm still getting familiar with the functionality and worst case scenario will have to do some extra work. I haven't figured out how to export the buy/sell record into excel but will be looking into it. Gringo
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I am having trouble when a trend transitions into a trading range. I tend to keep trying entries and all I get out of it is stop outs or forced exits. Either a change in approach is warranted at that time because it's not clear after how many swings to support and resistance the BO will occur. Seems prudent to just wait for a BO or RET when I identify a trading range than getting nicked multiple times. Then again at times the entries work out and I catch a better entry because of not giving up. But it's not easy to tell early on whether the sideways movement is relatively short or long. I am also feeling the need to have a plan for BO and RET to have a better flow to my trading. When I am replaying data at faster speeds it's tricky to record much of anything. I'll have to get used to recording some thoughts regarding my thinking. I do need at times to draw DL/SL otherwise I tend to lose my orientation. Going at faster speeds I just place the buy and sell as market orders instead of going for limit stop entries. It does get me mostly the worst prices but strangely I haven't experienced anything like a catastrophic loss despite getting the worst prices on entries and exits. This is something new for me to have quite a few forced exits and still not having much of an effect on principal. It is going to take a bit of training to get used to my own rules. Price certainly doesn't look the same in RT as in post analysis charts. More data and replays are required to have a clearer picture. I am replaying the same day at least two times or more. I do increase the speed significantly for third time onwards. I have to work on: 1) Noting my thoughts down. 2) Better manage transition from trend to non trend. 3) Maybe get a plan for BO and RET as well, which look like late entries to me now. 4) Not get disoriented especially when price gyrates significantly up and down. 5) Handle better when volatility is higher. Stop out exits tend to get farther away when this happens which increases risk. 6) Get the win/loss and profit/loss calculation done properly. The trading platform for replay doesn't calculate profit loss stuff. Either I'll have to find a way to convert the buys and sells into excel or something but it will require some intervention. Gringo.
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Hi Db, I have posted the questions in the chart where there are circles. The chart has two circles, hence, two questions. I am finding it surprising that my questions have become so specific. In this jungle of price movement having a plan does make one see possibilities that were not visible previously. I had gone through charts in this thread before, and although the charts are exactly the same what I see in price behaviour is not. It's like those pictures where one's looking at a young woman and suddenly the same image appears to look like that of an old woman. I feel as if there has been a fundamental shift in my mind. It is this thread showing price behaviour without even volume that I believe caused the shift. I thank you DbPheonix for giving so much valuable advice despite not receiving anything in return. I have seen you getting ridiculed for your ideas and comments repeatedly. If I were in your shoes I probably would have given up a long time ago. You've already spent countless hours maintaining this forum. You don't have to use your free time to do all this, but you repeatedly do. Trading and speculating aside, from you I have learned the meaning of generous giving. I probably will never become as generous with my time as you are but certainly hope to not become as selfish with it as I otherwise would have been without coming in contact with you. Yes, I do know your disdain for guru worship and excessive praise. But, I believe the emotions were meant to be removed from our trading not from our lives. Gringo
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Db, Now that I am beginning to understand S/R are only for alerting purposes and not like a hard floor or ceiling other questions have popped up. It has to do with my entry plan. With my incorrect understanding I was relying absolutely on S/R to guide me into the entry. Bounce from an S/R after test was a possible entry point for a reversal. With this new understanding that it's price that is the key and can turn even before the so called S/R lines the entry has to more or less rely solely on the behaviour of price itself. Would something like the below be a reasonable starting point for an entry/exit for a long position after a "reversal". I am selecting long to keep the behaviour consistent and simple in my mind. 1) Price is close to S (feel uncomfortable not having some reference to s/r). Am I having trouble letting go of s/r? 2 ) SL is broken. (Should TL be broken as well? I'm going to read up on TL as well to know precisely what the difference actually is.) 3) Price move upwards due to either demand or a lack of supply. 4) Price comes down for a test or at the least drops a a little bit but stays more or less at or above the LSL. a) it is better if the drop is slow rather than violent. b) price is moving in a tighter range (smaller price bars) 4) Enter: a) when price crosses above the level where price had stabilized, meaning the price goes above the small bar or bars formed for a test. b) these could be at or above the LSL. Preferably above the LSL. 5) Exit: a) absolute exit when price drops below the LSL. b) actively managed exit when price falls below the level where price had stabilized before the buy. c) DL is broken. I haven't seen many examples on this forum before of an exact plan so my apologies in advance for its crudeness. Gringo
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Chat room is on the top of my wish lists. Gringo
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Hi, I think it would be wonderful to have the chat room become available again. It would not only increase the communication especially during trading hours but also allow users to stay on this site longer leading to more traffic. A lot of trading sites have their chat rooms while TL being one of the bigger and better ones still is lagging in this department. I for one request that an attempt be made to make the chat room available. Thank you. Gringo
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I have added some more comments on the chart for clarification. Gringo
