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Gringo
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Everything posted by Gringo
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hmm...I'll have to think about it. But you are right, this midpoint game isn't as much fun.
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Hinge being formed with 2798 as mid? Gringo
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Buy at S after test or strength, and sell at R after test or weakness. We've been stuck in these ranges for some time now. Another box created today to represent the most recent TR. 2780 to 2820 with Mid at 2800. There are few mini s/r in between to allow some place to enter. 2800 to 2790 is a 10 point space available. Probably the mini s/r 2800-2804 will determine which direction I pick. Below 2800 a possible short and above 2804 a possible long. Gringo
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Tupapa, These are only suggestions and I have written whatever I could find so that something might be of value to you. These only meant in constructive manner and of course are extrapolations and assumptions of your trading from a small sample of data. 1. SL/DL lines are too far from the price. They are acting more like A TL. Closely hugging SL/DL should: a) Improve your exits. b) Allow you the freedom to re-evaluate your position in a detached manner as you would have exited earlier. c) Increase profits as quite a few of your BE trades become profitable. 2. Focus on the prevailing trend. 8/13 chart you seem to be going long when the trend is down. Notice LH any HL. With correct determination of trend: a) Would have attempted more shorts instead of longs. b) In combination with correct SL/DL you would have made profits even on your longs that ended up mainly BE. C. You could have gone both long and short and still made money both ways in the earlier phase. 3. I see a hesitation is changing direction. 08/14 chart: 141.17 price stalls and makes LH. DL has already been breached which prompted your exit. You are holding back getting in on the short side. Notice on the extreme left of the chart the price dropped a lot from where ever it was earlier. So the high and the subsequent LH both are under the earlier high not visible in the chart, hence, either of them making a larger trend LH. You don't need all this information but only need to see LH at 141.17 after the first high 141.23 and prepare for the short based on your entry rules. To me it seems only the correct trend determination and SL/DL tightening should put you over the hump as more or less you seem competent as far as entering is concerned. Gringo
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Yes. We need a Skype reconnect. It's been a long time. Hopefully the chat will become available soon for us to resume our social and virtual gatherings. Gringo
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Tried shorts earlier when 2806 was broken but was contained within a 1 point total loss. I kept my losses closer today especially at range extremes but it kept me stay calm. Brought a few stops to BE after the first gain or so and whenever price seem to stall which actually prevented any nasty large reversal losses. This did make me re-enter but I was fine with that. 2803.75 became my mini s/r after 9:41 so I didn't short at 2806 afterwards but waited for this S to be broken before initiating the short which had just before 10:00 exited at BE because the price stalled and kind of rebounded upwards a bit strongly a minute or two before 10:00. Today wasn't a day that emotionally engaged me much. I would say the only time I felt some emotion was 10:01 when price crossed 2814 and I thought I was supposed to go long after 2812 but wasn't ready for such a fast run up and didn't pull the trigger and hadn't placed a stop-buy above that level as well, so in reality I wasn't going to buy at such violent move at market price. Last Friday, I was able to pull the trigger but today I didn't. I was in a short position when I saw the hinge around 2820 area. I simply tightened my stop right above the top of the hinge and kept brining it lower to the upper SL of the hinge. Price dropped and eventually I exited at the break of SL. For me the fact that S/R was around 2812 I went long after SL break and test and exited BE. It's strange that while I was looking long others were looking short when after this rise around 10:40 price dropped downwards. I didn't enter it because the S/R at 1812 and S/R at 2810 kept me aware of these supports and the risk inherent in shorting so close to them. In hindsight I could have made some money but not getting excited and sticking with the overall logic of my trading consistently is still satisfying in itself. I was tempted to try and squeeze out a trade between the 2806 - 2810 range but stayed put instead of forcing something stupid. For quite some time reasonable entries were not forthcoming until of course 2820 S/R which was causing a bit of angst but not much. The gain was 4.5 to 5 points today. Less than desirable exit prices were used because of higher volatility and to keep exit prices real. I am guessing some numbers came out at 10:00. I am contemplating whether to figure out in advance if any numbers are coming or continue to stick with complete disconnect from news as I have been doing so far. The fast price rise did shock me a bit but I had stops in place so no harm done. Did anyone get to go long at 10:00? How would that be played? Perhaps not every penny can be squeezed out of the market every day and the objective of the plan is to stay mostly on the right side and avoid the wrong side of price. Gringo Edit: It is interesting for me to see tomerok's chart which shows price to have had some pause when he went long after the news. I only saw price just shoot to 2812 and then 2814 and probably that's why didn't see any reason to enter. His entry is quite impressive I must say.
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Pre-market even 2810 is a small S/R. 2812 has a larger S/R. There's quite a bit of space between 2790 and 2806. If price goes there then RT price behaviour will become even more important to determine where traders are building S/R and which direction if any is likely for the price to move. Strangely, 2800 hasn't provided much S/R however we can't discount that area to not act as S/R, therefore, I'll be keeping an eye on price to see what happens there in RT if we get there. The 2806-2810 range is going to determine it appears the earlier direction. Or not. Gringo
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Tomerok's chart is so clear. I am feeling jealous. Shorter bar interval does show things not visible in even the 1 minute. However, looking at only the 1 minute chart I would find it tough to identify that wiggle in the price bar that turned out to be a springboard. Perhaps in time some dough will need to be spent to get the sharpest tool. Until then I'll enjoy Tomerok's chart and day-dream. Gringo
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I'll keep this in mind. And today I did at least to my understanding. I'll attempt to keep the bigger picture in mind instead of only focusing on my trade to the exclusion of other clues. I am open to just observing price behavior if my recognition of price behavior doesn't improve. Making some kind of entry decision does involve my senses more though. I won't be able to continue doing this regularly due to scheduling issues at work. Getting some sense of how I use my plan in RT on the whole has its advantages as well. As soon as I get busy at work it will be back to price behaviour observation for me. If you feel at certain time I am regressing let me know and I'll back off from RT. There are no plans for me of going live if ever before valentine's day next year. This does give reasonable time to get things sorted out. I take your suggestions very seriously now Db. The school of hard knocks has taught me the value of valuing experience. I have updated my plan to engage in action involving hinges of any sort only after a RET. Yes, it is a wonderful example of the Dog That Didn't Bark. I shall strive in RT to attempt to hear the Dog that Didn't Bark. Today, I had two charts open so that I would focus more on 1min and keep an eye on the 15min to have the perspective. Thank you Db, Gringo
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Today wasn't bad. I was a little slower in recognizing changes in direction perhaps because there were quite a few directional changes. In the beginning got the long early but when RET came was looking for long re-entry but was surprised when price dropped through 2806 strongly. Jumped to the short by 2805 and was ok. I am not sure if there was a way to tell in advance that was going to happen but the fact that I took the short at least for me was nice in the sense I was alert to going the other way after such a rise a few minutes ago. The green DL was the only region I couldn't catch. I was short and then exited after the test and subsequent price rise but hesitated. Didn't want to jump in mid way and was waiting for a RET that never came. I was kind of mentally geared towards down move which slowed the switch a bit. Got the short down after price stalled again though and was back in synch. Tried a few long/shorts at multiple places but was quick to exit and re-enter as required. 10:09 to 10:15 am had one long and one short stop-outs so stopped to gather my thoughts and observed for a few mins and then caught the down move. Calming down for a few minutes did help. (This was today's objective to re-set after two stop-outs). I tired to keep my mind open to price changes and seem to have done a better job than yesterday. Over time there is hope. Today was a gain of 15.75 points. Gringo
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Db, I am trading but with more focus on the bigger picture. I am done now. It's too close to 11. Gringo Took the long Stop buy of the day. After this I might be done.
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Today's objective. 1) Focus on the the overall picture instead of focusing only on the trade itself. 2) Two consecutive stop outs, one in each direction should alert to possible TR. 3) Wait for RET before entering from a hinge. Gringo
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Price was frustratingly not picking a direction earlier in the day. I ended up with a loss of 2.75 points for the day. A timely long was missed on my part as indicated on the chart but in RT the TR's all obove it kind of muddied the picture. Getting nicked after so many times it was tougher to pull the trigger as price did hover for 20secs after the one point rise but then blasted ahead. I knew at that time it was either time to jump in or hold my peace and I stayed put until further price movement showed some strength. The buy/sell today seem like a drunk trader in action. I did keep coming back though. I noticed a hinge and played BO on both sides before getting slapped both ways with stops. I was very aware at that time it might not work out and exited when things didn't seem to be progressing in the intended direction. My chart does show gaps often which unintentionally makes my entry and exit wider. Without that I could have been -1 point or so. Overall the gaps are not having an effect, just seeing price suddenly jump instead of in a flow gives a bit of a different meaning to the interpretation of supply and demand which gets somewhat magnified in RT and probably in the mind. I thought I was not out of control today but the results are not favourable. Perhaps reflection later on will bring out something I missed. The shorts at times do look ridiculous but in RT I believed the BO to the downside was coming hence kept taking them.
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My pre-market charts: Today's resolution is to focus on price itself and take the entry when it comes instead of over analysing it closer to S/R and pink mini intra-day s/r. Gringo
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First drop caught me by surprise and I started brooding over missing that move. When suddenly the price returned upward in one swoop I got worried whether price was first going to go to the S/R and then decide which way to go. Instead of acting when weakness developed again I overrode the price signal and thought to wait a bit to see which direction price takes (classic Information/price risk again ), and viola the next instant price was gone.:crap: Wider swings in price seem to unsettle me a somewhat. I have to start following price itself and know that I can always exit if price goes against me. My past fear of getting caught on the wrong side and then feeling like a prisoner waiting for the price gods to rescue me might have been playing in the background making me trigger shy. Gringo
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I am beginning to realize a few things that I did incorrectly. 1) I started to 'assume' price was going to bounce or slow down when it approached S/R. This generally is the case but not always. Instead of judging the price behaviour itself around S/R I expected the price to behave according to my perception and bias of it. In a way I put the cart before the horse. 2) I didn't play the BO and even RET to the downside well. There were ample opportunities to re-enter which in hindsight I can see weren't that tough but were missed in RT. 3) Pre-open ranges were not identified as mentioned previously. 4) Second guessing my own plan and S/R levels causing distrust and breakdown in my own analysis and observation of supply/demand behaviour. More observation might yield more insights. Gringo
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I really got trumped today. Early in the day I didn't pay attention to the 1 or 5 min charts to identify consolidation around 2797 or 2797.5 area. This lead me to not be alert the first time price reversed downwards dramatically and miss the down move. By the time I identified in RT the risk/reward weren't clear to me so I didn't force a trade. For some reason either I or my plan weren't adequate. I had plan to enter BO from a TR but didn't have it for a BO of S/R. Still RET was in the books but most downside BO were so close to the next S/R that I chose to not take them and started wondering whether my S/R were correctly drawn in the first place as BO were coming in the middle or just above S/R. I'll have to get some input regarding today as it was a very instructional day and in my opinion it's good to have days like these where one's plan is tested and flaws exposed. In the end I made 1 point out of all this 30 or so point 90 min play. I have to admit not losing much is still quite impressive in my case as I would have gotten crazy not getting in and done something stupid in the past. That being said a day like this shouldn't have slipped through the fingers so easily as well. Perhaps others can illuminate how they interpreted the price behaviour. Gringo
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Should have been attentive to the premarket high around 97. Realized it too late... Gringo
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Today's game plan: Price is close to R at 2800. Might test it before drop or go above. Below the S is around 2780 and Mid is around 2790. Midpoint is also an S&R of the pink consolidation. There might be some tussle between 2800 and 2790 because of both being quite sold S&R in their own respects. Demand and supply is the ultimate judge so we'll see how it all pans out. Price might just chose to not even care about these levels. Gringo
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Hi Tupapa, This chart with your precise entry and exit is much better. You seem to be having issue with recognizing a RET from REV. I'll try to write more later. Gringo
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Have a look below to see the behaviour in almost RT. A B C D E F The A, B, C, D, E, and F will make it easier to discuss what's happening and where. I wouldn't have picked test at 53 that Db pointed out. For me waiting for DL to break and then looking for test or weakness would have been the course of action. Gringo
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Hi Db, My short was earlier and exited before we hit S. It was from 45 to 41 when SL is broken. That I don't consider it to be bad. I did make a mistake and didn't actually realize it was a mistake until you brought it up. I didn't take the long at 40 at around 10:00am. I am not sure what happened but I waited until I saw a sign of strength and took it at around 42 . In RT perhaps I should have drawn the new SL after NL and would have seen it but not doing that kind of got me mixed up. I knew support was not giving up but the pink SL was not giving even one HH which threw me off a bit. Once the big spike came I recognized the supply/demand struggle shifting in favour of demand and got in after the RET and subsequent rise around 42. I did take the long at 10:24am. Not the first rise at 10:20am or so, but the 2nd one, just before the drop and stop out. First one I didn't take because the RET was a bit deeper than what I had expected after such strong rise in price and got a bit perplexed (In hindsight it looks like quite a normal RET and I don't know why in RT I was hesitant). When LSL held I got in long but obviously got stopped out when price fell suddenly. (I also wasn't aware of any numbers coming out simply because I never bothered to check. Now that I think about it I might have felt hesitant in taking positions had I known some major news was coming out). I simply followed price behaviour and that's it. I didn't notice the 2nd hinge and I remember thinking that I was trying to find too many patterns in price behaviour and should just focus on simplicity and reverted to the TR rectangle for clarity. I also was beginning to feel exhausted by that time (something strange considering it was only like an hour or so into trading). There is a lot of focus required to stay alert and today I felt it. Playing re-plays perhaps because of higher speeds didn't exhaust me that much in one 90 min session condensed into 30 mins. The last hinge I didn't identify but did notice LH and was ready for exit had the price dropped below the range into the previous range. I did identify both TR's in RT. I did realize the now identified mini hinge BO as a sign of strength after LH's even though I didn't identify the pattern of the hinge itself. This I guess is the result on focusing on price behaviour itself instead of whether a certain formation was in place. At this juncture the price staying within the TR for about a minute but I somehow understood it was getting ready to BO above TR. Oh yes, I did see the drop and was playing in my mind the short and it was easy and from the price behaviour it was becoming evident price was heading lower. I would have gotten from 51 to 43 but wouldn't have taken a short after that because of the S right beneath. Today was packed with a number of lessons and required quite a bit of changing directions. I'll work on my missed long but certainly appreciate the beauty of today's price movement for educational purposes. I don't know how people are able to concentrate for the duration of the entire day. By 11am I was more mentally spent. Thanks again for your help. I wasn't reading the comments on the forum during trading but later did appreciate your timely updates. Learning would have improved faster with a chat room to bypass this back and forth. Then again this back and forth might help someone else and myself consolidate ideas. Gringo
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Hello, First chart is from the Trading in Foresight which was my preparation more or less for the day. The second represents the ebbs and flows of price. I got about 10+ points out of it today and as the minute chart was slow in updating at times some reduction in return is due to price suddenly refreshing and showing a gap down! I still took the gap down price as my exit even though later it did show that price moved down deliberately which I in RT didn't see and exited. I am not worried as for free charting service it's not bad and serves it's purpose of getting me used to following my plan. I tried to add some reasons on my chart and avoided to pinpoint entry/exit points but at times to show my thinking did add some comments indicating why I avoided something in RT. Pre-planning chart from the Trading in Foresight tread: 1min RT chart: I was a little stressed during the first 5 mins when it wasn't clear if any S/R would hold but calmed down afterwards and was generally in control and accepted my right or wrong decisions. There was a RT hinge that I identified but couldn't play profitably. I hadn't accounted for multiple bounces at the mid of the hinge and after one bounce got worried I wasn't sure what I was doing and kind of exited the long, though it turned out to be a pretty nice entry in hindsight. This didn't distract me to taking the BO above the consolidation area which gave a few more extra points and at 11am I stopped due to a big Mid being very close so didn't want to take a long even though price behaviour wasn't weak at that time. Another point to note is that in RT previous day's consolidations were indicating where price was stalling which I had not identified specifically in my pre-planning but was still keeping an eye on which gave perspective to price suddenly stalling and breaking up or down. These were visible on the 1min chart not but isn't visible in the posted chart now. Gringo
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Hi Db, I am posting my 90 min trading in the TBP thread. I did go short by the way not at the highest point but got a 3 or so points out of it for a start. Gringo.
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We're close to the mid of the large TR from 2839 to 2865. The mini price consolidation areas with coloured boxes have been identified and so have their mids with dotted lines. I'll be paying attention in the vicinity of these levels and based on price behaviour make trading decision. If price reverses or weakens around 2852 or whereabouts I might short if it shows strength might decide to go long. It's difficult to precisely pinpoint simply because I'll be looking the behaviour of the price around those levels and they're not treated as hard support or resistance levels. Mostly likely though I won't be going long when under the S/R and not going short if S/R is right below. There has to be some distance for me to chose to enter for reasonable profit objectives. Gringo
