Tradewinds

Falcon seems to prefer the Silverstone power supplies: Newegg.com - SILVERSTONE ST1000-P 1000W ATX 12V v2.3 & EPS 12V 80 PLUS SILVER Certified Modular Active PFC Power Supply

The Falcon Frag Box uses the: ASUS P8P67-M PRO (REV 3.0) LGA 1155 Intel P67 SATA 6Gb/s USB 3.0 Micro ATX Intel Motherboard Newegg.com - ASUS P8P67-M PRO (REV 3.0) LGA 1155 Intel P67 SATA 6Gb/s USB 3.0 Micro ATX Intel Motherboard It looks like Falcon is using Kingston HyperX Memory for the hi end option. Newegg.com - Kingston HyperX

The Falcon Mach V uses either the ASUS MAXIMUS IV EXTREME (REV 3.0) LGA 1155 Intel P67 SATA 6Gb/s USB 3.0 Extended ATX Intel Motherboard Newegg.com - ASUS MAXIMUS IV EXTREME (REV 3.0) LGA 1155 Intel P67 SATA 6Gb/s USB 3.0 Extended ATX Intel Motherboard or the: ASUS P8P67 DELUXE (REV 3.0) LGA 1155 Intel P67 SATA 6Gb/s USB 3.0 ATX Intel Motherboard Newegg.com - ASUS P8P67 DELUXE (REV 3.0) LGA 1155 Intel P67 SATA 6Gb/s USB 3.0 ATX Intel Motherboard I could just buy either of those myself, and use the same CPU's as they do. I wonder how much I'd save in labor costs. The thing is, Falcon has surely worked out what all the BIOS settings, compatibility issues, etc should be.

I just discovered Falcon Northwest computers. I did a search in Trader's Laboratory and found a few posts about Falcon computers, but the posts were from a few years ago. If you are interested, just search on "Falcon Computers" and you will find their site. I like the look of their "Frag Box". Does anyone own a Falcon computer? How would you rate it?

Yes, there many ways to trade successfully The very small percentage of people who do make money, may not tell you how they do it. Time and Money is needed. The odds you will be successful are extremely low. To expand on those points: Those who do make money trading will tell you that it's possible. They may or may not tell you how difficult it is, how long it will take, or what your chances are of becoming successful. Most of the people who actually make money trading, will probably never tell you all the specifics about how they do it. Even if they did give you all the specifics, you might not execute it correctly. You could get a strategy that could be profitable, and not have the internal discipline to actually implement it. You might run out of both time and money before you figure it out. Even those people with massive amounts of resources to put into trading may never figure it out. There may be an extremely few amount of very exceptional people who are able to take a small amount of money and make it work. But the odds are very low that will happen. Anyone who is not willing to accept and deal with these realities, is probably doomed right from the start.

I only traded one es emini SP contract today instead of averaging in with two or three at times. Didn't make very much money. The news at 10:00am caught me on the wrong side of the trade. That was my biggest mistake. The Up Volume minus Down Volume dropped hard at 9:53 am, 7 minutes before the news release. Makes me wonder what people know before the news comes out. I took the chance, that it might be a bottom and went long right before the news. STUPID!! :crap: I can say I learned something new today. It seems like I learn something new almost every day. I'm not sure if that's true, but I hope it's a good sign. I had a very small profit at the time I decided to quit, then I entered just one more order, hoping to get just a little more money. Well, that's a very bad way of thinking. Of course, the order went bad. I would have had about a $53 dollar loss after fees today. Okay, well. Not what I wanted, but can't make a gain every day. At least it's not a big loss. Performance All Trades Total Net Profit $62.50 Gross Profit $412.50 Gross Loss $-350.00 Commission $0.00 Profit Factor 1.18 Cumulative Profit 0.09% Max. Drawdown -0.23% Sharpe Ratio 1.00 Start Date 4/21/2011 End Date 4/21/2011 Total # of Trades 33 Percent Profitable 78.79% # of Winning Trades 26 # of Losing Trades 7 Average Trade 0.00% Average Winning Trade 0.02% Average Losing Trade -0.08% Ratio avg. Win / avg. Loss 0.32 Max. conseq. Winners 6 Max. conseq. Losers 2 Largest Winning Trade 0.06% Largest Losing Trade -0.17% # of Trades per Day 33.00 Avg. Time in Market 7.5 min Avg. Bars in Trade 0.0 Profit per Month 2.90% Max. Time to Recover 0.13 days Average MAE 0.04% Average MFE 0.03% Average ETD 0.03%

Okay, I figured something out. Actually, I figure things out, then forget them. Then figure it out again. Then forget it again. After a while it "sinks in". What I need to do, and what I started practicing today, is to wait until my indicators are all synced to an extreme for entries. This gives me a better chance at a good entry, and forces me to wait until the conditions are right. I have a couple of custom studies I programed that are oscillators. Price cycles back and forth in waves. I wait for both the oscillators to sync to one side of positive or negative for the entry. It helped. 88% win rate, and I felt a lot more solid in my trading. Not a big profit, but I'll take the solid strategy and "piece of mind" any day. The es emini SP kind of died out, and I called it quits. Not much news this morning. Performance All Trades Long Trades Short Trades Total Net Profit $225.00 $212.50 $12.50 Gross Profit $300.00 $250.00 $50.00 Gross Loss $-75.00 $-37.50 $-37.50 Commission $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Profit Factor 4.00 6.67 1.33 Cumulative Profit 0.34% 0.32% 0.02% Max. Drawdown -0.11% -0.06% -0.06% Sharpe Ratio 1.00 1.00 1.00 Start Date 4/20/2011 End Date 4/20/2011 Total # of Trades 17 13 4 Percent Profitable 88.24% 92.31% 75.00% # of Winning Trades 15 12 3 # of Losing Trades 2 1 1 Average Trade 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% Average Winning Trade 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% Average Losing Trade -0.06% -0.06% -0.06% Ratio avg. Win / avg. Loss 0.53 0.56 0.44 Max. conseq. Winners 15 12 3 Max. conseq. Losers 2 1 1 Largest Winning Trade 0.08% 0.08% 0.06% Largest Losing Trade -0.06% -0.06% -0.06% # of Trades per Day 17.00 13.00 4.00 Avg. Time in Market 3.4 min 3.4 min 3.5 min Avg. Bars in Trade 0.0 0.0 0.0 Profit per Month 10.90% 10.27% 0.57% Max. Time to Recover 0.01 days 0.01 days 0.03 days Average MAE 0.04% 0.04% 0.05% Average MFE 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% Average ETD 0.01% 0.01% 0.02% Trade List 4_20_2011.xls

I looked at some reviews, and people do seem to be interested in this laptop for gaming. And I did see this comment: "yes, there was a Sandy Bridge issue; however, based on a post directly on Asus's website. when you buy this laptop, just make sure that it has the sticker for New Revision Certified Design" The reviews seem to be good. The problem with reviews, is that most people give the review right after they bought the computer, and problems don't arise until later. I am not a computer expert. I have built my own computer, but I only know enough to be dangerous. :rofl: Here are the specs: ASUS G73SW-XT1 17.3" Black Laptop Memory Type: DDR3 Memory Speed: PC3-10600 Memory Speed MHz: 1333MHz Memory Slots (Total): 4 Total Memory Size: 8GB Maximum Memory Supported: 16GB Display Type: Full HD Display Screen Size: 17.3" Maximum Resolution: 1920 x 1080 Capacity: 500GB Drive Types: Hard Drive Hard Drive Speed: 7200 RPM Processor Brand: Intel Processor Class: Core i7 Processor Type: Quad-Core Processor Speed: 2.0GHz Processor Number: 2630QM Graphics Description: Dedicated Graphics GPU/VPU: NVIDIA GeForce GTX 460M Video Memory: 1.5GB DDR5 VRAM Lifestyle: Gaming Entertainment Condition: New Operating Systems: Windows 7 Home Premium 64-Bit Platform: Laptop Optical Drive: DVD Super Multi Burner/BD Player Capacity: 8-in-1 Supplemental Drive Type: Media Reader Media Types: Memory Stick Memory Stick Duo Memory Stick PRO Duo Memory Stick PRO Multi Media Card Mini-Secure Digital Secure Digital xD-Picture Card Audio Description: Integrated Audio USB Ports (Total): 3 - USB 2.0 1 - USB 3.0 LAN Ports: 1 Audio Out Jacks: 1 Microphone Jacks: 1 VGA Ports: 1 HDMI Ports: 1 Communications Description: Integrated LAN Integrated Wireless LAN Integrated Bluetooth Interface Type: RJ-45 Ethernet Connector Bluetooth™ 802.11b/g/n Wireless Networking Data Transfer Rate: 10/100/1000Mbps Network Up to 300 Mbps Protocols: 802.11b 802.11g 802.11n Width: 16.6" Height: 0.8" - 2.3" Depth: 12.8" Weight: 8 lbs Mouse Type: Touch Pad Buttons: 2 Keyboard Type: Fullsize with Numberpad Battery Type: 8-Cell Lithium-ion

Once I bought a high end gaming laptop, and it was a nightmare. I returned two of them, and got something more mainstream. My main computer is a Dell Studio XPS laptop which has been very reliable. I use it with an external screen which can be a little tricky. When I close out a program, I make sure to move the open window back to my laptop. If I disconnect the external monitor, then start the laptop back up again, then open software up, the software will try to open up in the external monitor that isn't attached anymore. This can cause some confusion and aggravation. Because the external monitor is not attached, a window can open up, but you don't see it on the laptop screen.

Apr 19. I'm trading 1 to 3 contracts on the ES. Short term trades. Avg time in Market 3.5 minutes today. $293.50 profit after fees. This is sim trading. not real. All orders will not fill unless price moves through entry price. Today I ended up averaging in on quite a few trades, and trading some chop. I actually do very well trading choppy markets. It's that mentality to fight the market. Get me into a fight with a choppy market, and I'll "eat your lunch". :rofl: Nice, happy, beautiful trend lines seem to be a problem for me. I started the day out bad once again, and fought my way back. At least I know I'm capable of making a comeback. Now if I can get into the right state of mind earlier, I'll do even better. Performance All Trades Total Net Profit $412.50 Gross Profit $687.50 Gross Loss $-275.00 Commission $0.00 Profit Factor 2.50 Cumulative Profit 0.64% Max. Drawdown -0.29% Sharpe Ratio 1.00 Start Date 4/19/2011 End Date 4/19/2011 Total # of Trades 34 Percent Profitable 76.47% # of Winning Trades 26 # of Losing Trades 8 Average Trade 0.02% Average Winning Trade 0.04% Average Losing Trade -0.05% Ratio avg. Win / avg. Loss 0.77 Max. conseq. Winners 13 Max. conseq. Losers 4 Largest Winning Trade 0.12% Largest Losing Trade -0.10% # of Trades per Day 34.00 Avg. Time in Market 3.5 min Avg. Bars in Trade 0.0 Profit per Month 21.30% Max. Time to Recover 0.04 days Average MAE 0.04% Average MFE 0.04% Average ETD 0.02% Trade List 4_19_2011.xls

Apr 18. Made stupid mistakes early on. I seem to do that a lot. Then clawed my way back. In the end, I had 26 winners in a row and an 80% win rate. I'm starting to get all the pieces of the puzzle in place. Now it's just about execution. But I'm starting to trust my strategy and my signals, even though it goes against my initial reaction. After commissions, the profit would have only been $123 dollars. But that translates into over a $30,000 gain in a year. I'm trading limit orders on sim where the order will not fill unless price passes through the order. Total Net Profit $287.50 Gross Profit $987.50 Gross Loss $-700.00 Commission $0.00 Profit Factor 1.41 Cumulative Profit 0.45% Max. Drawdown -0.88% Sharpe Ratio 1.00 Start Date 4/18/2011 End Date 4/18/2011 Total # of Trades 47 Percent Profitable 80.85% # of Winning Trades 38 # of Losing Trades 9 Average Trade 0.01% Average Winning Trade 0.04% Average Losing Trade -0.12% Ratio avg. Win / avg. Loss 0.33 Max. conseq. Winners 26 Max. conseq. Losers 3 Largest Winning Trade 0.12% Largest Losing Trade -0.33% # of Trades per Day 47.00 Avg. Time in Market 2.6 min Avg. Bars in Trade 0.0 Profit per Month 14.53% Max. Time to Recover 0.05 days Average MAE 0.06% Average MFE 0.04% Average ETD 0.03%

Yes, I want precise answers. You are right. I am looking for a good understanding of the market I'm interested in. Do I want it to be easy? Of course I do. Why wouldn't I want that? I know it isn't easy, and I don't expect it to be easy. I don't understand what you are trying to say. I'm making to many posts? I only post to threads that interest me. I probably should be spending my time doing other things. Do you want me to make fewer posts? I agree that the only person who will work this out is me. So we agree on that. I think I know what you are saying. A problem that I have, is that I'm constantly trying to fight the trend. So if that is what you sensed, then you are right. I'm offering my thoughts and opinions to make you and others think. What's your point? That's what happens in a forum. It's a free internet. I post what I want where I want, and as long as I'm within the rules, then I can do and write whatever I want. I do take information from different sources and tailor it to myself. I already know that. Your right again. We find ourselves in agreement yet again. We agree on a lot of things. Then I evaluate my situation and try to figure out what I'm doing wrong. Then make a decision about how to trade, or not to trade, or go get a real job. If it's available in plenty of places, and it is a resource that backs up your statement, then just provide a reference. I do have a strategy, but what does that have to do with the subject of picking tops and bottoms? I'm not flicking from idea to idea. How did you come up with that thought? I have refined my strategy to very specific inputs and rules over the last couple of years. So it seems like you are saying that I'm not able to take advice? Do you think I'm not able to take advice because I reply to your posts? What makes you think I'm not able to take advice? I reply to your posts, and I give you my opinion and try to back it up with some rational thought. Do you want me to stop replying to your posts? I appreciate what you are saying, and again I agree with what you are saying. Keep on offering your advice. All I ask, is that you don't mind if I reply with my thoughts and opinions. That's fine. I agree with what you are saying. All I ask is that you live by the same standard. If it's okay for you to write, "if you can't take this then good luck to you", . . . is it okay for me to write in the same manner to you? Can you take it? Do you mind if I wish you a "Good Luck?", and state that I'm just trying to help you. What if i don't know what I want? What's your point? Do you know what your point is? Is it not okay, if I don't know what I want? How often do people know exactly what they want? What do you want out of this interaction? Are you saying that it's bad if I don't know what I want? What is the point of asking me if I know what I want? :rofl: Don't worry about it SIUYA. Keep giving me all the advice you want. It's a free internet. I can choose to reply or not reply, or how I reply. It's my choice. You do whatever you want, and I'll do whatever I want. Deal?

I'll let you know. :rofl: Hopefully I'll be posting my trade stats to my trading log. Then I may post my live account cash balance screen shots, (with the account number erased). I'm not saying that I can make any money at all. All I'm saying is, if I actually do make a claim, I'll try to provide evidence of how good or bad I am.

For a lot of people, hurting someone else actually makes them feel good. I wouldn't be surprised if all humans are capable of this feeling. Many people may engage in more subtle but similar behavior, and not allow their conscience to bother them.

100% percent gain on $10,000 = $10,000 10% percent gain on $1,000,000 = $100,000 $100,000 * 25% = $25,000 So that would be $25,000 earnings trading OPM or $10,000 earnings trading my own money. On the surface, that seems like a "no brainer". But I have more questions. One initial question for me is; "Is it the same or easier to get a 10% return on 1 mil than a 100% return on 10 grand?" I would think it would be easier to get the 10% return on the 1mil. But it gets more complicated that that, because I want to earn more that either the $10,000 or $25,000 a year. If I only want to earn $10,000 a year, then I can go get a minimum wage job. I don't think people are attracted to trading to earn $10,000 a year. The other question is, what kind of returns are reasonably achievable? Let's say I traded for two years, and built up my account to $20,000 dollars. Then after two years trading experience, was able to make $1,000 dollars a day trading. That's approximately $250,000 a year. With the OPM example, to make $250,000 a year, with a 10% return, I'd need to get a return of 1 mil a year, and that would take 10 million of OPM. I'd need to be managing and trading 10 million dollars of other people's money. They would need statements, and consultations, and have their distributions managed, etc, etc. And I would need to find people with that kind of money and convince them to invest with me. Then the next question I have; "Is it as easy or easier to get a 10% return on 10 mil as it is on 1 mil?" That's the big question I have. If it gets more and more difficult to manage the larger and larger amounts of money, then the balance point would need to be calculated.

What is wrong with trying to pick tops and bottoms? What is the other option? An order can be entered after the top or bottom is apparent. I'm not trying to encourage anyone to think or act the way I do with a trading strategy. I respect a person's choice of whatever they want to use for a strategy. I don't criticize anyone else's strategy. I'm just encouraging that a procedure of problem solving be employed. Provide something to work with. Present a theory. Give an opinion on how price action works. Suggest what affects price moves. Give pros and cons about methods of entry and exit. This is what I'm looking for. You bring up the issue of picking tops and bottoms, but then give absolutely nothing as background information, examples, logic or even an opinion about WHY it's a good or bad idea. Price often moves very quickly in the reversal direction after the turn around. Not always, but quite often. So here is what can happen. If price moves very quickly in the reverse direction at BOTH the bottom AND the top, and you wait for confirmation of of reversal on both ends, then by the time you enter and exit the order, you are at a very small profit, or break even. This is why I don't like Moving Average lines. If you look at the CENTER of an MA line, between the bottom and top, then compare the up center to the down center, those levels are very often almost at the same price level. And if you wait for confirmation of the price reversing to enter and exit, then the above mentioned situation is what you find yourself in much of the time. You will end up entering long at the center going up and exiting at the center going down, for little or no profit. Alternately, you can take a little profit out of the center of the trend, or the center to the top or the center to the bottom, and then wait for the next entry set up. But if you are judging the center to the top in a long trade, then you are guessing at where the top is. So if you are guessing at where the top is, then why not just reverse down at that point? I don't want a strategy that automatically eliminates a range of good possibilities. It's not bad to narrow down your focus, filter out situations, and concentrate on certain circumstances. That can all be good. But I personally don't want to limit good potential. I try to pick tops and bottoms. I will probably always do that. It's my opinion that it's the best strategy. To me, that's the whole point. That's the optimum and ultimate goal. I've started a trading log here on the site. And hope to post the statistics of my trades. I'm not promising anything or making any claims, but I like the idea of providing something tangible. And if I do become wildly profitable, I may have a lot better things to do than make posts.

The irony here, is that I had a "break through", and was staying in trades longer. In fact, I've made the decision to stay in trades longer, because a major problem of mine is that I get out too early. So I had made up my mind to stay in the trade until I had a peak signal. ( I was long). But price wasn't peaking, it was a large retracement before a bottom. You are right, rules for staying in the trade are just as important. That's a good point.

Thanks Tams, I use the $TICK, Advancers, Decliners, Up Volume, and Down Volume as the basis for trading the emini SP 500. I have custom studies that process all that data. My data feed isn't what I would like it to be, but for development purposes, it's okay for now. I look at different aspects of all those inputs, and how they relate to each other.

I had a good profit on a trade, and let it all slip away. I've decided on some exit rules, that are straight forward and simple. Hopefully it will help in the future. Exit orders on these three conditions: At Peak or Bottom signal On unusually large price moves Stop Loss - Price fails to move in my favor I've been trying to scalp the ES on every price level. I've decided this strategy does not work well. When the trend is strong, it's rarely possible to exit, then re-enter at a better price. So, it's better to ride out the trend to it's end. The problem is, the price can turn against you with absolutely no warning. That is shown in the attached chart at 10:32 am. But, there was a good way, to deal with that situation. Price had an unusually big move up prior to the downturn at 10:32 am. That's where the rule for taking profit on an unusually large price move comes in. Attached is a spreadsheet of my performance report. Mar15.xls

I've decided on some new profit taking rules. Exit orders on these three conditions: At Peak or Bottom signal On unusually large price moves Stop Loss - Price fails to move in my favor I've been trying to scalp the ES on every price level. I've decided this strategy does not work well. When the trend is strong, it's rarely possible to exit, then re-enter at a better price. So, it's better to ride out the trend to it's end. The problem is, the price can turn against you with absolutely no warning. That is shown in the attached chart at 10:32 am. But, there was a good way, to deal with that situation. Price had an unusually big move up prior to the downturn at 10:32 am. That's where the rule for taking profit on an unusually large price move comes in.

What I find interesting is the chain reaction, and multiple levels. The typical trader talk is about fear and greed, and that's fine, but there are other branches on the tree. And there are roots beneath the ground that are unseen. So gaining confidence is not the "end game". It's really just "level one" in a multi-level game. Once the confidence is acquired, at some point, the temptation is to branch off into arrogance. That story has probably been told a million times. Arrogance blinds the self, and then branches off down yet another path, to self deception. There are many forks in the road.

Steve, thank you for posting the chart. I find it very interesting. The blue bars seem to correspond to the tails of the candles of the swing highs and lows. Although in other posts you call them something like, supply/demand nodes. The range that the blue bar indicates, seems to be a better guide than a simple, thin price level line. From looking at your charts, there seems to be a range that price operates within, at those transition points rather than a specific price. Thank you again, for pointing this out.

I look at my trading stats, and they don't look to bad. Win rates over 70% percent, etc, etc. But I know that I held on to loosers way to long. If I had cut those losses, my stats would be much better. This is a situation where seeing that win rate makes me understand the potential, and helps me to see where the problems are. I'm a person who wants: Certainty Prediction This is a "set up" for disappointment, and develops unrealistic expectations. Thinking in terms of anticipation verses prediction, changes the mental outlook. I got this info from a video of Andrew Menaker.

Trading OPM. I just heard the term "OPM", Other People's Money. Never heard that term before. I don't know if it's a common term in the retail trading world or not. Maybe it's used more in the world of institutional traders.

Yes, true. I spend a lot of time working out signals for trend reversals, and when to lock in profits, but I still don't have the exit strategy for a bad trade defined. The battle goes on. I need to drive a short sword through the guts of those loosing trades. Just kill them, and go on to the next victim.